Member Info for G_G_G

The Canadians are not as all over it as I'd like Maestro :) Much better volume across the pond but not huge. If we get some good company PR, or heaven forbid the Redditt mob were to get wind of the 'actual' value here, then we'll get a re-rate closer to what doc has been talking about. FWIW I think our true value at the moment (on current poo) is best worked out on a multiplier of our fcf, which should be around 5x. Depending on what values we get from the company I think we should have a Mcap around £110-125m. This gives us a sp range of 16-18p on fcf multiple alone. This of course doesn't take into account any value for Serenity or growth from our Canadian acreage. If we secure a f/o and they announce a 5-10 drill campaign in Clearwater this year then 20p would be a very conservative value based on actuals, not probables or possibles. And if they start hitting 500boepd 'Noel type' wells in Canada, or 100m recoverables in Nth Sea then 30p would be a very conservative value for the stock. I can see i3e being one of those stocks where people will be kicking themselves in 3, 6, 12 months when it doubles and triples from this level. GLA

88e is an example of what Redditt and hype can do. Take a look at the sp action of that dog. It's sitting at more than double our mcap. Nothing but a disaster that company. Has little to zero 'real' value. And yet it tripled at one point in less than 5 days. Does anyone know how to get a Redditt or Wall Street Bets thread going. At least PIs won't get spike here.

It's funny how round numbers are so hard to crack. They almost act as resistance levels in their own right (and often become the resistance level). We have two of them - 10p and an mcap of 70m. It's something I've noticed on many stocks, and works the other way as well. A company will often drop to a certain round mcap and sp like 100p or £100m. This of course creates a resistance level the more it bounces off / from the round number. Either way we've breached 10p a couple of times in the past 2 days and it isn't a historical resistance level, so it looks as though it's going to drop with or without news. The fact Canada is doing reasonable volume and at 11p also bodes well. I think we'll quickly be knocking on 11p once we get over this hurdle. We just need divi news and some good PR. And I mean company PR - I think the sp has relied on Doc enough. It's hard to imagine what would happen if a Redditt or Wall Street Bets thread started moving as well. Traders push absolute dog**** and here we are throwing off tons of cash (versus our mcap), about to announce a circa 10% divi, about to drill more wells, announce a f/o... Wtf does it take to get noticed these days...? I do hope the company is pulling together a PR blitz to go with some of these news items. Only 2 weeks at the most before we get some of that news fellas. GLA

I think a conservative 5x fcf is more in order Maestro. This isn't a multiple of earnings, rather it's fcf, so it should be even higher than 5. But if we're to be conservative @ 5x our Mcap should be £125m (16-17p range). I'm hoping we'll re-rate closer to this level on announcement of divi. I'm also hoping they'll be a little more generous and push it closer to 30% fcf for their long suffering PIs. This will provide a welcome boost to the sp. If we get that f/o on good terms then 15p+ is pretty much nailed on. And if there's a sniff of news on an upcoming Clearwater drilling campaign then we'll be closer to 20p. And all of this would mean we're still valued on the conservative end of the O&G market. Providing oil and gas prices stay near this level for the next 3 months then we're a minimum double from here (assuming f/o will take place in this time). Looking further ahead, and assuming poo stays above $55, then I believe we're 25p in the lead-up to North Sea drill results, and if they strike +100m recoverable then add another +10p. Pretty crazy the upside. I'm hoping the bod are pulling together their PR blitz as I type. The silence is very strange given the amount of great news they can announce. Anyone want to start a Redditt or Wall Street Picks thread? Funny how dog**** stocks take off on those forums and we're languishing in an oil price boom. Hopefully we'll be through 10p before divi news is announced. GLA

I think what's more interesting is not the fact that licenses have been revoked, but who they were given to. Goes to show the political clout the Chinese have in RoC. As I've said many times, I don't believe the issue is with Glencore. They will sell at the right price, with or without 'trading rights'. The issue is how much China is willing to pay both to ZIOP, and to Nguesso and his cronies. The reason why African countries are still so poor is the scumbags that expropriate immense amount of national wealth. Russia is no different. It should be the wealthiest country on the planet, if it weren't for the crooks in charge. Once the Chinese and Congolese politicians (scumbags) have agreed their price for the means to export the ore, then we'll be bought out. China has already shown how much they're willing to pay for high grade, long-life mega projects. The problem is, and always has been, how to get those resources back to China. This was the benefit of Guinea - The Government were selling not just the rights to the mine, but an agreement for the necessary infrastructure to be built to help it progress from the dark ages. If RoC give up the land for the port, everything else will fall into place. If a starting pistol is to be fired, this will be it for me.

Thanks Tony. I seemed to remember Liberator was circa $100m for 10kbopd. If we do a f/o with Repsol and hit oil I'd expect that Tain would be reconsidered as part of a bigger field development plan. Not a bad thing and I'd only give it another year or so beyond their current plans before oil is flowing, but potentially from a much bigger and better economic source. So I'd expect them to re-evaluate where they stick their first initial development costs should they hit their +100m recoverable across the acreage. Once up and running I'd imagine the field(s) will be flowing at +30kboepd, and last at least a decade. No doubt they will squeeze more from the field over time so could last even longer. Either way, a f/o on free carry appraisal and retaining circa 30% and we'll almost certainly be sitting at +15p. Assuming of course the divi is a full gone conclusion. Current divi projection would still be +5% at 15p. Add a couple more 'Noel' type wells in the coming months and we're nearer 20p. Then of course there's the matter of actually hitting oil in Serenity. This could easily take us to 30p. F@cking nuts the upside to this stock, especially when most of these things are definitely going to happen at some point in the near future. As doc has pointed out, we're multiples of current s/p when valued at the same level as other Canadian plays, which don't have the Clearwater and Nth Sea upside. I was thinking of top-slicing at 12-13p. Now I'm thinking 20p range. No such thing as a 'sure thing' when investing, but this has got to be close to a sure 'double your money' in the next couple of months providing poo stays above $55. AIMHO GLA

Can anyone remember what i3e estimated as development costs for Liberator many years ago?

By the time our Nth Sea assets have been drilled (for free), and we've proven up 100m recoverable (potential), and a field development plan has been developed and agreed, then retaining 30% of development costs won't be something too difficult for i3e to manage. It will take a year or two at best before development starts, and another year or two before oil in any real quantity is flowing. By then i3e will be producing 15kboped and throwing off cash that could carry most of their development costs. I don't know what a Serenity / Liberator field development is likely to cost in the end, but it will be a hell of a lot less than if it were in the middle of the Nth Sea with no infrastructure nearby. Even if we had to fund $120-150m (30-35% retained), I'd imagine this would be for quite a large field development and we'd be taking 8-10k boepd when fully operational. This would also happen a hell of a lot quicker than developing an isolated asset, so quite fast payback. And at a very low b/e level. Small price to pay for 8-10kbopd of Brent. Especially when your fcf from all operations could easily pay off a $120-150m loan in less than three years @ +$50 poo. IMO if we get a free carry on 3 drills and retain anything above 30% of the asset then we've done brilliantly. GLA

Does it really matter Chris? We're back in the 3's!

I think Hanno will need to invent some news, otherwise at this rate the sp will soon be bouncing off support in the mid 3's. Never thought I'd get he opportunity to 'average down' again. As ever 'great time to top-up for the believers'. Now deliver that bloody news already Hanno!

Canada not in the US...yet.

Ah, you know the herd has arrived when posts like this start to pop up. Let's hope we have plenty more Sinochorizos - 'new money' is always the most valuable.

Don't think think it's a leak fellas. Sorry not big enough movement like the last times where IIs were obviously dumping stock. I do however believe the volume was driven by doc's breakdown of the inherent value in the stock. One needs to keep in mind the action started across the pond, which is where he and a lot of investors following him are based. It then caught fire over here, no doubt on the back of Canada's realization that we're grossly under-valued. Given doc has a pretty high following and posted a lot of hard facts (interspersed with v.positive opinion), it has certainly struck a cord with the many investors who weren't already in the company. This has resulted in a lot of 'new money'. And when 'new money' hits a stock it tends to re-rate. There's a significant II base here, and there's plenty of investors who have held from the 20's and 30's whilst averaging down to have 1m+ positions (Barnyards reminded the board of this just now). Most won't be 'in the money' until we get into double digits, so won't be selling when we're so close to the sp re-rating further in the coming weeks. All that has happened is we've pulled back from ridiculous lows. We're still grossly under-valued as many are still a little dubious of the bod's words until they see some production and financial breakdowns. The change in poo and gas alone should have delivered a bigger uplift than what we've seen. When the market can see the figures broken down we'll re-rate to a value closer to the Canadian average. With divi payment confirmed, and a f/o thrown in for good measure I do think we'll be banging on 20p rather than 10p. Two of these news pieces are guaranteed to land in the next 2-6 weeks. The f/o is the wild card. Anyway, hopefully divi news next week and the fun can start all over again. In the meantime I see us bouncing around in the 9-10p range. GLA

I think mgt should ask their PR team to look into all the Dr Jones' of the world and ask them to do a report on i3e. We've all seen the lift that Malcy, Oilmanjim et al can do to a small cap like ours. They're the 'influencers' of the stock market. Except Dr Jones is a hell of a lot more researched and educated in his field. Shame PR aren't the same. Looking forward to wakign up tomorrow. Hopefully to a f/o rns. GLA

Canada about to break 4m volume in less than 3 hours trading. If this continues we're going to become the tail and not the dog. Reckon Canada could break 12p (21 cents) this week. Not sure where that's going to leave us, but I'm thinking north of 10p. A generous first divi announcement plus a good f/o deal and who knows where the sp will end up. All I know is I'll have £500k when we pass 13.5p :)

Hi Dr Jones, I was going to ask how much reach you get with your reports normally. The uplift certainly coincided with your analysis, but I didn't think you'd have that much coverage. Out of interest, how do you know 20k investors have seen your report? Although not as bullish as you on a few things I do see us moving toward 20p over the next month or two providing we get the f/o, they drill some wells in Canada, and poo and gas continue to play nice. I'm assuming the divi will get paid at or near 30% fcf.

Pushing 1m at 19 cents in 10 minutes trading. Suggests we may have another record volume day. If Canada kicks off again with a few million changing hands at +20 cents in the first 2 hours then I can see us closing nearer 10p today. Had to happen at some point. Really hope they go that little bit extra with the divi. Ideally with some additional news on Noel plus near-term planned wells in the formation. Would it be too much to ask for a f/o in the next few weeks as well? The right news in quick succession and we'll be talking about breaching 15p. GLA

That's a pretty key question as shares being tradeable on both exchanges should eliminate arbitrage.

Yep JAdam, I've got 2.75m in ISA wrappers between my wife and myself :) We've religiously put in our £20k allowance for 6 years now so almost quarter million in ISA savings. Some years I've even taken out a loan in order to fill our annual allowance. They're a wonderful thing if you can time a number of stocks well. I've read about people with a couple of million in ISAs after they put a decent chunk into moonshot stocks like Solg, Eua, Ggp etc. If you get a couple of 2-5 baggers, or even a single moonshot, you can be in a position where you move from Aim into income stocks like GSK, BP, Rio, Standard, Aviva etc and earn over £100k (after tax) in divis every year. That's the dream I'm chasing and hopefully i3e can be one 2-5 bag :) GLA

Well we're at +7m volume and over £500k value by 11am. This is what we saw across the pond yesterday. If we see another +5m day in Canada and break 20c (11.5p) again then I can see us closing the week at 10p here. Once we get confirmation of divi, which will surely be next week, we're into double digits. And if they surprise us with a generous payment then I can honestly see us in double digits for the foreseeable future. A good f/o and we're going to be rolling in it. To be honest I think a good divi, supportive poo, f/o on good terms with near drilling date (within 4 months), and one or two other pieces of news like more Canadian drilling planned, then I can see us breaking 15p, and pushing 20p when the drills are turning in the Nth Sea. If we can get the f/o agreed in the next month then all this can happen in the next 8 weeks. It's all very, very exciting. GLA