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Agreed Tony, but wanted to check if they've committed to any drilling already. I'm hoping they deliver this news alongside the divi in the coming days. I'm happy to wait a little longer for the f/o :)

Thanks Maestro, but not sure anything mentioned in March '20 is relevant given what has happened in between. Also I didn't hear Majid say drills would be turning in Clearwater this year. He alluded to it, but there wasn't a commitment. I've seen the interview a few times so was surprised when Q1 Clearwater drilling was mentioned on the board. I'd also think it's worth an rns if they're about to start a drilling campaign. It certainly qualifies as sp sensitive information.

Hi Doc, was it you who mentioned the other day that drills were planned for Clearwater in Q1 this year? If so, can you point me to where you read / heard this? If it wasn't you it would be great if you could ask Graham in your call when they plan to drill more Canadian acreage, where, and how many drills are planned for this year.

More generally, it's quite strange we've had a pull back when divi news needs to be announced either today or tomorrow at latest for us to hit end of quarter guidance. Can't say I care too much providing it happens at or near when they said it would. I'm really hoping they deliver closer to the 30% fcf limit for the first payment as well. They're making more than enough money to do this and at least 15x drills with the remaining cash. It will put a strong floor under the sp, reward lth's, and we'll still be able to add +3kboepd to production. It would also lessen the chances of IIs dumping shares - Why do it if you're getting a +5% income. If they deliver a bunch of 'Noel' type wells then we could add +5kboepd quite easily. We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

I hope so Tony, but still believe our opinion means nothing until we know what OPEC is going to do post-Covid recovery. They're is an immense amount of OPEC+ oil that can be dropped back into the market very quickly. Not to mention shale starting back up. Not to mention China now sourcing a huge amount of 'illicit' oil from Iran, which dents supply from other sources. I'm expecting a loosening of restrictions at the next OPEC meeting. Hopefully only 1-1.5m boepd, which will I think will result in poo bouncing in the $55-65 range. But this lower poo matters not. Anything above $55 after the divi and financials are announced will support a sp of 15p. If we're at $65 then I'd hope us to re-rate to fair value around 18p on fcf alone. Then we have upside from Nth Sea f/o and increased Canadian production. So can easily see us above 20p in the next 3-6 months providing poo stays at or around $60, we secure a f/o and they have a Canadian drilling plan for the remainder of the year. Success in exploration and we'll be closer to 30p. As I've said before, I think the hardest thing will be knowing when to top-slice for the lth's / big PI holdings. It's one of those shares than can easily double / triple from here with key support from $60 poo. Hopefully divi announcement this afternoon. GLA

Sorry meant to say +13-17p form current sp in the next 6 months (current production + f/o (30% retained) + 2,500boepd growth @ +$60poo). Add another couple of pence for run up to f/o drilling. Drilling success is a big ?. Same applies to them hitting a bigger than expected oil column in Canada. If they start drilling 500-1000boepd drills then we'll be even higher as people will see the very low cost / high growth / very quick monetisation potential for the company. I believe we'll get all of the above in '()' in the next 6 months so feel circa 25p share price is reasonable if we're producing 12,500boepd @ +$60poo (and the Nth Sea acreage is soon to be drilled @ 30% retained ownership). But Nth Sea and Canadian success could turn this into a £200m Mcap company very easily. Have to keep in mind that i3e is virtually debt free and any expansion (including in the Nth Sea) can be paid out of fcf. GLA

Liam, I think you need to look at the inflection points for the company and weigh up what you believe will happen to the poo over the next 6 months. If you believe oil will stay above $60 then you can add 6-8p over the next 6 months just on current production (we're quite under-valued at 9,200boepd). This can be worked out from expected fcf @ $60 and using a multiple 5. The other major inflection point if a f/o in the Nth Sea. This will add 2-4p instantly depending on the deal we make. If we retain more ownership (30% or more), then you'll see additional gains in the lead up to the first drill. There's also more 'Noel' type wells. If they were to add a total of 2,500boepd, over the next 6 months, which is quite realistic given the acreage they hold and recent 500boepd Noel discovery, then you can add another 5p in value. So all in all there's 13-17p on the table for current production + f/o + 2,500boepd growth. You can then add a few pennies in the lead up to Nth Sea drilling if indeed they secure a f/o and drilling is to start in the summer. If they strike oil then who knows on top of that. Please do keep in mind these scenarios involve +$60 poo environment. It's impossible to know what OPEC will be doing in 1 month, let alone what will be happening wrt Covid variants or the wider economic / global environment. Certainly one of the best companies on AIM at the moment for security and growth.

Now for that divi announcement... Hopefully later this afternoon after Canada opens as per yesterday. GLA

Gilt, the first guaranteed piece of news will be the divi announcement in the coming days. We don't know if they'll be especially generous with the first payment (up to 30% fcf), but I think most are expecting 0.8-1p (annualized) given recent poo and outlook. To put this into perspective it's a 5% yield on a 16-20p share price. This will be the first mini-boost to the sp from current levels. It will also serve to put a floor under the share price, as investors will know with every week of Brent being in the 60's they will earn £XXX in dividends. The extra upside will come from production expansion in Canada. They could add another 5,000boepd in the next year simply by reinvesting some, but not all, of their remaining fcf. They can do this every year without so much as breaking a financial sweat. This in turn adds to fcf and divi yield so one will see the sp 'floor' rise with every 1,000boepd added. And then there's the f/o in the Nth Sea. This will be worth 2-4p instantly. And the closer we get to drills turning it will add another 2-4p in anticipation of a strike. If they strike 100m recoverable and we're holding anywhere near 30% then add another 10p. Hopefully you can see how 30p is pretty much nailed on over the next 6-12 months providing poo stays above $60. The only thing that will slow this down is if poo drops back into the 40's. GLA

Reckon that 1m trade this morning was a buy. Thing is the suffering in Nth Moz will fade from the public eye in the coming days / weeks, and nccl will start to recover as a result. Sad to think this sort of thing is happening in the same country that we're invested in. Even worse to think it's going to continue long after we cash in and pat ourselves on the back for a 'job well done'. The more you know about what's happening in the world, and how it operates, the more depressing it becomes...

From memory the uplift perfectly coincided with Doc's note, which drove volume across the pond and here. The significant uplift in volume in Canada was the dead giveaway that his mini thesis was the driver in their market, which I believe woke some people up over here. I also don't believe IIs would be buying on the back of his advice, so there's a few HNWIs amongst a new cohort of ordinary PIs that have dropped into this stock. It's 'new investors' that tend to drive up a share price, which is why I keep banging on about PR needing to go into over-drive on the back of the divi announcement and anything else they have to share with the market, be it f/o, Clearwater, Noel etc. Let's hope they've been quiet because there's more than just a divi to be announced in the coming days. GLA

Yes this has undoubtedly created the recent drag on the sp. There has been 2 other articles on northern Moz in the past 2 weeks. It's absolutely sickening what these savages are doing to people, and disgusting that it's being done in the name of Islam. The continent is a f@cking joke. This sort of barbarity is the norm across so many African countries. People behaving like animals, raping and murdering at will. It's truly incredible what poverty and desire for power will make people do to one another. Islam has a lot to answer for when it doesn't scream from the rooftops that it isn't a religion of violence. When it doesn't condemn these actions across the world. It also points to government failings in Moz and across all of Africa. It point to greed, corruption, cruelty and incompetence. And let's not even talk about the complete waste of space that is the UN. The misfortune for us in our very safe and lovely world, is the same joke government that is dealing with this insurgency, is also dealing with us. Utterly tragic.

Let's hope so Maestro. They haven't been too good at hitting timings to date. We're now in the last 2 weeks. Divi has to be soon. Technically tomorrow if the 2 week circular notice period is to be observed. GLA

Doc, I just wanted to follow-up on my previous question - where did you read / hear there's wells being drilled in Clearwater in Q1? I haven't seen this in any rns.

Tony, I'm not concerned about the big trades as I believe a number of them are buys. They have to be given sp action on the days the largest trades were made.

Doc, just wondering where you read / heard they had budgeted 6-8m for Clearwater wells in q1? Somehow I've completely missed this statement.

EoA, there hasn't been US$350m, let alone £'s. Either do some research or give it a rest. I know you and your mates are here flipping for this weekend's cider, but for god's sake stop embarrassing yourself with such ****e.

Once upon a time people would p!ss their pants when 1.25m trades were rolling through at new highs. Good sign that things have changed.

The expected news, combined with a company PR blitz with some additional coverage by the 'Doc Jones' of the world', is what will send us to 20p. If Redditt etc pick us up then we'll be at 30p without news.

Does anyone know where the Noel well was drilled? Was it Clearwater acreage?

Oh dear it would appear our P&D crew are back, and this time have brought some new friends with them. Makes sense of the sp spike on the many lunch money trades. EoA, have you worked out who AT is yet?

Not sure about the values in that graph doc. They heavily skew toward oil with WTI @ US$60 then gas in low to mid 2's, with AECO in CAD. Clearly the best oil play. But don't think it's a good comparison to use against gas plays.

If indeed it's a gold mine it won't help us with our infrastructure problem. Except perhaps for power generation. If it was an IO mine it would be a different story. Sadly gold is very easy to move around, and doesn't require rail or slurry pipes. Having said this it's good to see the Chinese all over RoC at the moment. AT and co will need to provide an update soon. If it's more can kicking then I don't see the sp dropping below 6p - There's been too many shares changing hands above this level over the past year and far too many holders who have averages well above this level who aren't going to sell now when we're further along the line to a b/o than we've ever been. Nice to see a bit of an uptick today. The Redditt crew will find us sooner or later - be ready :) GLA