Member Info for G_G_G

Those of you who are familiar with my posting would know that I'm not a cheerleader of the bod, rather I've been quite critical of their missed timelines and guidance in the past. But on this occasion I have to say 'well done'. They delivered on their words. They've given us a circa 6% divi at 10p. They haven't said when it will be paid, so I'm hoping that won't be too long. They also haven't stated what % of fcf this represents, but we know it's between 20-30%, and one can safely assume it's at the lower end of that range. This means fcf @ circa £20m per annum for an Mcap of £75m. And a 6% divi yield. Pretty good in anyone's books. There's also expanded production at Noel from Q2 (another 0.5% on the divi), more drilling to be done with the other US$20m (worth 12-15 holes), f/o of Nth Sea close to being finalised, and potentially another acquisition somewhere down the track.

The divi has been set at a good level. It should put a floor under our sp in the 10-12p range on current poo/gas, at current production levels. But we know there's 500boepd to be brought online in Q2. And we know how quickly they can bring online oil from Clearwater. If they drill just a couple of holes that deliver near or greater than 500boepd from Clearwater they will have opened up a new play and add serious fcf per annum at just a couple of thousand incremental boepd. This of course means you get to keep your 5% divi yield as fcf increases and the sp goes to 15, 18, 20p. This stock is one of those rarities on Aim where you'll get a solid dividend, plus there's 100-200% upside over the next 12 months that will come from a range of things happening, many of which are completely in the gift of the bod, such as drilling Clearwater and Noel formation.

Aim really is full of short-term ******s. Not that I'm complaining, it's how people with a little smarts, and a little patience that can make money. Very happy here. Looking forward to the divi being paid promptly, and the quarterly report being delivered on time i.e. before the end of April, which is just 4 weeks away. GLA

I agree the delays are baffling Tony. And incredibly frustrating given the track record of the bod. If we're to hear something today then I expect it will be in the next 30 minutes before the opening of the TSX. Otherwise it's down to the last day before they fail to deliver on timings again. Let's hope it doesn't get to that. If they're waiting for other news then deliver it later. Missing their own key deadlines erodes trust, which is a key issue here. Time for them to step up.

I know I've been saying fomo will kick in soon, but I didn't think the market would wait until the day before the announcement would be over-due. The impatience and fickleness of the market never ceases to amaze me.

Hopefully the divi we'll be a pleasant surprise and we'll get a nice little kick into the 12-15p range whilst we await the production, drilling and f/o update at the end of next month. If we get our +5% divi yield @ 10p, plus a comprehensive near-term 10-hole drilling program into Clearwater + Noel, and a f/o in the next 6 weeks then I can see us sitting closer to 20p. The divi yield will of course follow the production and fcf upgrades with a slight lag as new Canadian production is brought online. So I can see the yield still being circa 4-5% @ 20p (@ 25% fcf) in a year. In 1 year we could be debt free (cash +ve), +12.5kboepd production, paying a 4-5% divi, and there'd still be the Nth Sea and further Canadian upside. Absolutely bonkers where the SP could go if poo and gas stay friendly.

I think 20p in a year is pretty much nailed on just from Canadian exploration & production if poo stays above $55. And if we strike +100m recoverable in the Nth Sea whilst retaining +25% ownership, well let's just say 'place your bets'. Quite a ride if it all comes together. GLA

Haha, true, true extrader.

Parge, it's not a stupid question as companies de-list on exchanges all the time, especially if there's little volume / value on being one of them. AIM however is a large market that the company can easily tap for money when required. It also still does the majority of volume. And if we do end up getting away a f/o in the Nth Sea we're no longer a Canadian producer. Companies often perform better in their home market as there's a degree of knowledge and comfort in knowing the sector, and having other companies that are similar on the exchange to reference.

Anyway, looking good today. Bod better deliver divi today / tomorrow. And when I say deliver I mean a minimum 5% yield at current sp given their repetition of 'up to 30% fcf'. They'll still have plenty of cash to devote to expanding production if they pay out 25%, but anything less and they'll prove themselves to be bull****artists in my book. They also need to reward their long suffering shareholders, and provide a solid base to value us against our peers. No more bull****. New leaf etc. GLA

Maestro I'll be bitterly disappointed if they announce a 3% divi given the numbers they have suggested to the market in the recent past. If they announce a 5% divi (@ 10p so .5p) then fine. It will still give them a huge amount of money to still put into drilling. But to talk about 30% fcf delivering a 13% divi when poo and gas were far lower (plus sp @ 5p) would suggest 5% @ 10p is the least they can do. These guys need to deliver on their words, and 3% simply won't do it. They also need to support their SP (& PI base) more, which a 5% divi will do.

Tony, yes I'd like to see a drilling program in Clearwater for this year. Crazy for them not to target oil when they can afford to add to their production and reserves very easily without needing to rely on the Nth Sea to do so. And it will prove up the value of the acreage. Having said this, to not follow-up on Noel area would be equally crazy. They've obviously struck something interesting, and if they're able to add 1-2kboepd for a few $ million then why wouldn't you do it. In the meantime we still await the f@cking divi RNS! GLA

Nothing like a brown paper bag to focus the attention of an African government.

Let's hope they're waiting for Canada to open and give us that long over-due divi rns. I can wait for production guidance, drilling plans and f/o news. They need to give us this piece of news. And they need to ensure they get us a quarterly review by the end of April. If they do these things then I believe the trust issues will start to resolve themselves and we're more likely to be sitting in a 12-15p range. This of course assumes poo plays nice and WTI is sitting closer to $60 (rather than $50), and they release drilling plans for the remainder of the year. If they secure a f/o on good terms then we're through 15p. Equally, if they drill another 'Noel' type well and open a new play then a few more pennies could be added. Really need that divi first of all though. If we're still waiting in a week, or they announce 10% fcf divi then I'm going to f@cking lose it. They've said enough, time now to deliver. GLA

Have to say I'm getting pretty bloody hacked off with the delays on on the divi announcement, which was due 2 months ago. If the bod want to build trust they need to start delivering on their words. So far they haven't, and so the market sees the same unreliable behavior of old. If they have additional news to deliver, then deliver it later. Normally good news followed by additional good news has a greater +ve impact on the sp over a period of weeks. And I don't want to hear about drilling taking place after it has been completed and tested. The Noel well would have cost the company (shareholders) over $1m. The cost and success target alone warrants an rns. Fine if they rns they're about to drill a high impact target. And then announce success after it has been flow-tested. But to say nothing, at any point, is completely unacceptable and no doubt breaks market rules. It's as if they have no regard for their shareholders, many of whom are still under-water. This is reinforced by their PR efforts, which are non-existent. If they want to be seen as a different company they need to start acting like one. A bit of professionalism by delivering on their words and timings, and a greater regard for their shareholder base would be a good place to start. The most we've heard from them is via Doc, which is a f@cking joke. A PI analyst has done more for the sp then our bod's actions.

Hopefully Monday they will announce a divi of +5% @ 10p, alongside a comprehensive drilling plan for the remainder of the year i.e. what they intent to do with the remaining fcf. These guys need to pull their socks up. GLA

Certainly puts things in perspective Tony. Not sure we'll get WTI at $63, but gas price looks reasonable. If we drop WTI to $60 then I'd expect we'd still break 20p on 5x fcf, which seems to be the industry average in Canada not to mention still having a +5% divi yield. Really hope they're generous enough with the divi and at the very least announce a multi-well drill program at the same time. People also seem to have forgotten they just hit 500boepd in a single well, which hasn't been factored into the sp. The PR around this company is absolutely woeful. We should be 15p now. GLA

Hi guys, interesting rns. Agree with extrader (as usual) there's plenty of milestones they should update us on given they've blown their timings on these things. EPC & O&M was due in Q3 2020. The timings on this milestone is a f@cking joke. Worse still is Hanno seems to think it's ok to pretend that it's not worth addressing.

Also agree with CF that tariff is the only milestone that really matters in the coming weeks / months. This is something I've been saying now for a year. Once agreed it will unlock the other key milestones. However I don't agree there will be any equity changing hands until after the PPA and PCA. There's no way CMEC would part with any money until things are fully locked up with Moz. The stage prior to FC, but after PPA & PCA is when this will happen. The Shareholder Agreement stage is when we'll get an idea of whether we're part of the project moving forward. I believe this will take 1 year from tariff approval. So if Hanno can get the tariff sorted in the next few months then mid next year is when investors entering now will have their 5-10 bag. This is assuming of course the whole thing doesn't fall over. Post tariff approval I see us at 10-12p. Post PPA & PCA I see us at 18-20p. Don't know what happens after that as it will depend on whether we hold 40%, 20% or nothing. Nothing of course would be best for shareholders. But until that tariff is signed we don't have any real commitment from Moz side. It really is the key to unlocking the whole project. AIMHO GLA

Thanks Tony, I just came to the same numbers. As I've said before I'm expecting WTI to stay broadly within the $50-60 range over the next 12 months. Good to know we'll be generating US$20-30m in fcf given these values. On 25% of fcf being distributed to shareholders that's US$5-7.5m, or around 5-7p dividend. I'm fully expecting them to redistribute 25% fcf, so we're looking at a yield of 5-7% off a share price of 10p. Hopefully they'll go with 30% fcf and the divi will give the sp a little boost. Also hoping they'll announce a hedging program before poo retreats further. Plus announce more wells being drilled. And I don't even want to mention the f/o. I'll settle with the divi and more drills for now.

Doc, how about using $50 & 60 WTI, which is the most likely range for the next year.

I'm not sure which deadline you're referring to Gary. The EPC & O&M contracts were due 6 months ago and Hanno hasn't even mentioned them in any recent updates. We were meant to have heard back from EDM on the tariff submission by mid-February at the latest. Tariff approval was earmarked for end of Q1. Given we haven't heard anything from EDM I would think that tariff approval is some way off. They probably haven't even opened the file, perhaps because there wasn't a brown paper bag accompanying it.

As for the tweet 1 hour ago, I don't think Hanno has any appreciation of just how much the solar deal he did with this brother p!sses people off. Especially when we've heard little to nothing on the main project, which everyone has invested in. The couple of responses to the tweet pretty much sum up my feelings. There's also the rather opaque and light on detail financing deal that was recently done for the first solar foray. As I've said he needs to update the market on the main project before end Q1 or we're likely to see more than drip selling next month. SP could be closer to 3p in a few weeks if he doesn't make an effort to restore investor confidence. GLA

I tell you what doesn't help sentiment, Hanno always missing his f@cking timelines. We have a tonne of news that is well over-due by even his stretch timings. I don't care if he has nothing concrete to announce at the end of the month, so long as he does an interview or puts out some tweets to say everything is ok. When news this over-due he needs to calm nerves and reassure the market the project is going ahead, whilst providing new timings on when to expect news on X, Y & Z. No doubt we'll all be p!ssed off when he misses the new timings, but at least we'll feel a little more confident in our investment and have reset expectations on key milestones. GLA

We're all getting a bit frustrated on here. I've had a short break while we moved flat. Never thought I'd say moving has been a nice relief from work, and the frustration of waiting for a f@cking rns from the bod. They really do need to deliver in the next few days. I don't care if they deliver on 31st March at 4.30pm providing the rns provides enough information for investors to make a more informed decision based on the value of the company. Plus they need to confirm the dividend that's well over due. I've made my feelings very clear - They need to deliver a minimum +5% yield at 10p SP. This will put a floor under the share price in the low double digits, and still give them circa 75% fcf to expand production. I'm completely against any more acquisitions. They can drill and bring on line resources at a very fast rate, with little to zero risk. The new resources will be long life. And they can continue to build up cash for the next market correction, which is bound to happen at some point in the not too distant future. If the next correction is 2 years away there's no reason why they can't be producing 20kboepd from Canada and have another 10kbopd from the Nth Sea (if they get the bloody f/o sorted). If they hedge at least 50% of our production above $55 WTI then we'll have protected fcf and dividend, and have only upside. They took over our current assets ages ago and still haven't got their heads around the production enough to update the market. The same will apply with any other t/o, except we won't get the same value in today's market. It will also need to be funded by debt, and there's no way any lender will front up the cash without taking a lot of shares. You have to remember the bod still get their options if they acquire through debt and capital raise. The bod also need to start rewarding their shareholder base. PIs have borne the brunt of their decisions over the years and been diluted into oblivion. Time they start working the share price up to 20p where most will have gotten their money back if they averaged down during the disaster periods. A good way to get us most of the way there is to hedge and declare a solid maiden dividend. No more delays. No more wondering about the value of the assets we've acquired. They need to deliver the news we've been waiting for in the next week. GLA

Tony, I think Doc has referred to being net debt free with $12m in cash. I'd very much prefer us to keep some debt on the books(up to US$50m) and pay down slowly if they can put ore fcf toward dividends and Canadian drilling. I'm sure restructuring debt on better terms will be very easy given the cash we're throwing off plus the massive value upside from increased production and exploration. Got a feeling I could get my first 5 bag here. To be honest I've never done better than tripling my money so it should be a record either way. GLA

Tony, I referred to 'rewarding long suffering PI's'. This means people like you. The fact I sold out on a £75k loss in the first round, and happen to be 'sitting pretty now' makes no difference to my point. Secondly, I highly doubt most PIs with +1m holdings have averages around 4-6p. They may have averaged down at this level, but if they've been here since the early days they will have had to build quite a stake to get heir averages into single digits. How many shares do you own and what's your average? This has been under the radar for some time, which means the usual day traders will have dropped in after we started making some waves. and probably exited with their 10% gains. The lth's are somewhat forced to wait if they want to get their money back. Isn't it what you're doing? As for 5% or less of PIs sitting on a loss, perhaps but I doubt it. Of those still holding a significant number of shares, I doubt they're in the black by much. I'd be one of the few, and you still need to keep in mind I lost £75k first time round. AIMHO GLA

I agree with Benjan, which is the only reason I haven't completely sold out. For lth's the word 'delay' is synonymous with nccl. I'm expecting Hanno to provide an update at the end of the month, even if it's to say 'everything is still on-track'. There's a lot of over-due news, some of which does not rely on EDM or Moz pulling their fingers out. For instance we've heard nothing about EPC & O&M contracts even though these were due 6 months ago. There's been no partner update since they spoke of drilling core holes into the resource. And then we have the EDM tariff update, which was due mid February by Hanno's stretch timings. So I fully expect an end of quarter update. If we can get some positive news i.e. some kind of milestone achieved, then I'd expect us to be back in the mid to high 5's very quickly. If we get some positive news on the tariff negotiations then we're off to the races. Either you believe they're going to deliver this project or not. It really is a binary play where you 5 bag from here in the next 12 months, or bust. Let's hope for the former. GLA

It's nice to see us bouncing off this level. I get the feeling most money has taken a position and waiting on news, which should be any day now if bod are to hit their divi guidance. We've seen some good volume above 10p, and as I've said before it's funny how round numbers like 10p / £70m Mcap tend to provide psychological resistance / support levels, which then turn into actual resistance / support levels. Either way I'm happy to see us consolidate here. If we're still waiting on news this time next week then I'd expect a small increase as we know they have to deliver in the following days. I'd like to see them announce 25-30% fcf as a dividend to reward their long suffering PI's. I'd also like to see them invest the remainder of fcf into Canadian drilling. That should leave them enough cash to pay down debt and get 12 or so drills completed this year providing WTI stays above $55. To put it into perspective that's a new drill every 3 weeks until the end of 2021. If they announce this I expect a swift re-rate to 15p. Then of course we have f/o and news on drilling successes (Canada and Nth Sea) to sustain / increase our sp to 20p and beyond. the starting pistol will go off in the coming days - It's about to get pretty bloody exciting. GLA