Member Info for G_G_G

Yeah I'm seeing 10p equivalent. Canada looks like it's waking up though. Can see 18c by eop. And 20c by end of week. Reckon we'll move back up to 11p. Bod need to get out and start the PR machine, unless they're waiting for divi formalities to be settled, which would make sense as it's a key thing they'll be asked about. Hopefully we'll get the divi news in the next couple of weeks.

FF, I agree it could be more clearly worded but I took from the rns (and how it was worded) that it would be 150bopd per well. This is also supported by average well numbers for the area. Given they're committed to 9 wells and we could secure another 500-750bopd over the next 12 months from acreage that wasn't ours, I'd say it's a pretty good result. We're also paying roughly 55% to drill these 9 wells but take 50% production ownership. Great move. This alone would more than offset our oil decline by a distance. And then we have drilling in Q4 and Q1 2022 on our own acreage. Quite likely we'll be looking at an incremental 1500bopd (oil) from Canada in circa 12 months. Worth a few pennies to the sp if poo stays where it is. Not to mention any more Noel wells or f/o.

Divi will be the start of the re-rate. At 12-13p people still get to bank a 5% yield and have the upside of Canadian exploration and production upgrades, plus a f/o. I also don't expect a post divi drop because we have so much other sp accretive activities, alongside another divi payment only a month or so later for Q2. Really is a no brainer at the moment, especially if they can hedge 50% of production over the next few months. Just wish I could free up some more funds. GLA

Was thinking the same thing Tony. We'll find out soon enough when Canada opens if they'll lead the way on the re-rate. I still think the divi payment process including a payment date is when we'll get the next decent bump. Unless of course they secure the f/o in the next few weeks.

Yep I saw the land acquisition. Kind of feels like frontier stuff whereas the farm-in acreage is in a currently producing area.

Can't come sooner by the looks of things. People have resorted to selling 1,000 shares as no-one is buying any more. Bit of a joke really.

Hi Hammerphil so nccl's PR rep mentioned an update hopefully next week on the main project to the Twitter group - is that correct?

Agree Starbright, except in the scenario I described I wouldn't view it as everyone missing out evenly, more everyone benefitting, but a little unevenly. GLA

So what do we think will happen in Canada today? I think we'll be 20c by week's end over there.

Thumbs up given. And yes I noted the same thing about acquisitions. However I see the farm-in as an acquisition of acreage. We don't get immediate production, rather potential production from a known area for relatively little outlay. Unless the acquisition rate is bloody impressive I'd rather we grow via existing acreage and a f/o. To be honest I see us as a very good t/o target ourselves at the moment. An offer of 20p could sway the IIs and many PIs into selling. And to think this would only provide fair value for the company. I wouldn't at all be surprised if a predator is watching us at the moment, especially if we get some success in Clearwater and / or the f/o moves ahead. Significant upside could come from many angles here. GLA

FF, I think you'll find it's 150bopd per well. The yield from wells in Clearwater varies but 300bopd would be on the high end, and so doubt it's this number. They mentioned 38kbopd from 443 wells in Clearwater in the rns, which suggest circa 90bopd per well. Also, to my eyes it reads 150bopd per well. GLA

Tony, you should re-read my post from yesterday (and other days). I said if the report is late and isn't comprehensive then Majid should be replaced, which I still believe to be quite reasonable. It was late. But it was comprehensive. He did what he's paid to do, but he also showed his commercial smarts with a hedging program and farm-in to established acreage for very little outlay. So he exceeded what I had said I wanted to see (and your list as well). So no backflipping here. And yes, Majid has now proven he's the man.

Great (not good) report. Some truly excellent news. To start with the divi will soon be paid. We also have strong production numbers near 9k, even with some apparent difficulties encountered during Q1. We have another 500boepd coming online in H2, which will offset natural declines via a single well. We have increased net operating income forecast for 2021, which is brilliant. Hard to tell how that will translate to fcf but I'd be amazed if we're not +£20m if poo stays at a similar rate. Even at 20-25% divi payout we're looking 0.8-1p providing poo etc continues to support forecast CAD$38m operating income. I love the fact they've started a hedging program and wish to hedge up to 50% of production. Very wise. Very good for us as our divi will be protected. I'd like to see them hedge the entire 50% asap and aim to protect us to mid-next year. This will provide a safety net should we go into another lockdown. Good to see exploration plans for Clearwater, although I would have liked drills to be turning in our 100% owned acreage before year end. Would also like to hear about more Noel wells being drilled. Like Tony, this is the only minor negative I have, which is very small considering everything else. Smart move on the farm-in. Why buy the company if you can pick up 50% of their prized acreage for peanuts. Our partner still has to fund some of the drilling. If each well is producing 150bopd then we'll have another 500-1000bopd from new acreage within the next 12 months. This of course doesn't include any drilling success in our 100% owned acreage. And then there's Serenity. Very +ve words stating they fully expect a successful outcome.

I've been critical of Majid and Graham for their lack of transparency and missed timings. The transparency was the main thing and this has answered all my questions, alongside showing they're strong, commercially minded operators. I'll stop kicking them now and even go as far as saying Majid has earned his inflated salary (although he needs to buy some shares with it). Once divi is announced I expect us to be 12p+, which would still be a +5% yield. F/o and we're 15p. With any drilling success in Clearwater and/or Serenity is to be drilled this year then I can see us being an 20p (providing poo stays at current levels) as the Nth Sea drills start turning. And with base case success in Canada and Nth Sea we could well be pushing 30p in a year. If one of my other investments takes the kick up that I'm expecting I'll add significantly to my holding. And all of this whilst being paid an income! Well done i3e and holders! GLA

I think you'll find they had to rns the second tranche being complete in order to release the third tranche. As I've said, this should be seen as a huge +ve given they now have cash for most of next year as well because they raised at a premium to the average sp over the past 12 months.

If I were in Glen's shoes I'd be speaking about a suitable price for 50% - 1 share with the Chinese right now, let's say $1bn. And then I'd make an offer for half of that to Zioc. Everyone wins in this scenario. The project would go ahead. We'd make a fortune ($1bn = sale at £1.60 or so). Glen would have paid for over half their share of developing the mine (even with cost over-runs), which makes Greenfield much more attractive. They would have Chinese input for mine, rail, power build etc. They would also have Chinese protection of the resource. The Chinese get a 100 year resource for arguably their most important commodity at a very good price. They foster even stronger RoC relations, which would allow them to make a play for the billions of other tons of IO in the country amongst other resources. They have a strategic ally on an Atlantic coast. And they have the input of Glen wrt to building the mine (alongside limiting exposure through sharing costs). RoC will benefit in a multitude of ways. And no doubt many brown paper bags will be exchanged by the Chinese over the years. Really cannot tell who / what is creating the bottleneck. Hopefully this year. GLA

Oh and they have an extra $750k in the bank, raised at easily double what they would have gotten during the height of the pandemic. This was a brilliant move by AT and co. These funds will take us well into next year based on historical cash burn and what we have left in the kitty (I'd surmise over $1m at the moment). Don't care if they sell another 7m shares in the meantime. I much prefer for us to have money in the bank when negotiating with the Chinese who must be starting to realize we can withstand their siege for a few more years to come. GLA

Can kicker? Maybe. We simply won't know until a sale is made, which could be months or years away. I think it will come down to timing for many on here. I mentioned yesterday the costing exercise could be for 2 reasons; the first is a sale is in the wings and the latest costings are needed to agree / finalise terms. Alternatively they're about to put the 'for sale' sign up. When you sell a house you normally get it valued prior to putting it on the market. I imagine projects such as this are much the same. There's also third option, they're waiting for an offer from the Chinese and doing whatever is necessary to keep the wheels spinning so RoC don't try to steal the resource. Thankfully we have Glen by our side otherwise the project would have been expropriated by now. There's not too many more costing exercises left to do on the project if you don't intend to develop (and I don't expect Glen to go it alone), so to my mind the worst case scenario is option two is pursued. They could sell the lot, or Glen could become a majority owner of the project with a Chinese consortium as partners. Means they only have to stump up $1bn and half of any cost over-runs. They can also rely on Chinese know how to build the mine. And of course they have the end user as a partner. So lots of reasons for Glen to push ahead. Ivan no longer being at the helm I'm sure will help as well. I still think something will happen this year. But when, who knows. GLA

dpmuk, good points. The bod also have form when it comes to doing reviews and studies that aren't published. The EPP is a good example. We were told about this for over a year and then it disappeared without ever being released to the public. The same could happen with this re-costing exercise.

I also agree any sort of t/o could be months and perhaps even years away. I do however have a feeling they've commissioned the re-costing exercise due to interest from another party and/or a determination by Glen to sell the asset and therefore having up to date costings in order to take it to market. One needs to keep in mind they could have commissioned this re-costing exercise at any point over the past few years, and only recently have decided to undertake it. So I do believe one of the above options is happening in the b/g. Either way this year should be where the wheels truly start to turn. Let's hope sooner rather than later. GLA

I noticed a post (now removed) stating our PR representative mentioned an update on the main project next week. Anyone know anything about this?

Agree Austin on the 'if's' and 'maybe's'. Fact is we shouldn't have to wonder about these things. All of the news items we are due are over-due. Some grossly over-due. The whole thing was already a joke. Surely they can update the market on any number of things now, and provide estimated timings (and reasoning) on the news items that are delayed. We've been waiting for 4 months on the promised divi and still have no idea of the reasons for the hold-up. The last update gave us a number for the divi, but we have no idea of our fcf levels and the % being paid. At this rate they'll be paying H1 rather than Q1 divi. Drilling plans - no idea. Forward guidance - no idea. Nth Sea - no idea. Every single one of these things should have been provided by now. These guys really are a f'ing joke. And to think Majid gets paid 600k to be this **** at is job. Unless the update comes in the next few days, is comprehensive, overwhelmingly +ve, and backed up by a PR push, then Majid needs to go.

Jesus WTI above $65. Poo is going crazy. What's even crazier is our p!sspoor valuation given the amount of cash we must be throwing off at current oil price. But instead we languish. We languish because we still await a plethora of updates that should have been released to the market months ago. News that includes a divi that was meant to be paid months ago. A comprehensive production and financial update we're still waiting on even though we've had ownership of our Canadian assets for 6-12 months. 2021 Drilling plans, instead of a footnote to say they've already successfully drilled a new play then not PR'd the great success. Nth Sea update, also months beyond any reasonable expectation of news given how long they've been saying things like 'with lawyers'. And now their delayed update is delayed. Wtf are these guys playing at? Given the market thinks they're dodgy given past occurrences, how in the hell can they keep missing their own guidance like this. Unless of course they're up to something, which for all we know could be dodgy. It's almost as though they're trying to suppress the sp. And then there's Majid on his ridiculous salary given our mcap, and only taking free shares. We don't even know what they've been up to in order to justify his inflated salary.

Well they can't keep delaying things forever. And they better give us a comprehensive bloody update given how long we've been waiting for the things they've been talking about for the past 6 months. GLA

Always thought the update would be next week. Don't mind providing they give us everything that's to be reasonably expected. Given how late the divi will be paid I'm hoping they will give us a date for Q1, alongside a date for Q2 divi to be paid. This will give a solid boost to the share price. I'm expecting comprehensive production, and financials. Exploration plans for 2021. Forward guidance. And an update on the Nth Sea. So long as this information is included they can provide the update at the end of next week for all I care. With this the market will be armed with everything it needs for a re-rate. A late and light on information rns would be almost unbelievable given the bod's track record. But then again, I don't get the sense they really give a **** what PIs think about them. I'm also sure the IIs aren't in the same dark place as us. GLA

Chris, I have 2.75m shares so if I was to offload it would drop the sp to 3p, assuming there would be buyers. I wanted to offload 500-750k of shares and reinvest in a more stable, reliable company with near term prospects. I still think this project will go ahead, but when, who knows. I remain invested only because of SF continues to invest, and for the progress that's been painstakingly made over the past few years (yes years). As for Hanno, I think the guys is a bit of a joke. Either he deliberately misleads investors with this timelines, or he has no idea of how long a project like this takes to move forward. Either way not good. No Covid excuses either, this is something that has been going on for years. The solar wrap up with his brother and the recent opaque loan that still hasn't been clarified literally makes my blood boil. I have over £100k wrapped up here. If they can do what they've been saying they'll do for years then great. But don't expect me to be +ve about Hanno given the bull**** he's fed me and other PIs over this period of time. Or the shady solar project with his brother for that matter. There's my position. GLA