Member Info for G_G_G

I'd also prefer mgt to seek a correction to such details (if indeed incorrect) rather than tweet about it. Yes 16p sounds like a good broker forecast, but their value assessment looks way too light given the numbers that mgt have provided to the market. Either way it's nice to see a little blue.

Can someone explain how Tennyson arrives at EBITDA of US$22.4m when the company has outlined Net Operating Income of US$31m, which excludes Noel and Clearwater. I cannot fathom how they arrived at their fcf number. To my mind (I'm not an accountant) our fcf should be our NOI (US$31m) - (interest on debt + tax (note we pay no taxes) + exploration (US$5m max)). I'm not an accountant but pretty sure our fcf will be +US$25m given Noel and Clearwater will add a couple of million this year. Happy for an accountant on here to pull me up but this Tennyson report looks like it was written by a teenager on work experience.

So much for news this week. Maybe next week, next quarter, next year... It's ridiculous so many key milestones have drifted by and the company doesn't feel it necessary to provide an update on missed guidance, let alone provide new guidance. At this rate we'll be lucky to get anything from Hanno in H1, and then it will probably be another update about his brother's project. The only suggestion of news has come from a twitter group. Utterly pathetic investor mgt, and to think these guys talked about improved investor comms at the beginning of the year. We're meant to be waiting on tariff approval (our biggest milestone in many regards), and we're continuing to go backwards from one of the lowest levels we've seen in the past 5 years. And before anyone says 'they're in sensitive discussions so can't provide any updates', they'll need to explain how SF could pick up 10m shares and how such sensitive news didn't bar him from being able to purchase. Either nothing is happening, or something is happening that only they get to know and act upon. Either way it's a joke. Unless the next piece of news replaces my lack of confidence and faith in Hanno I'll be exiting. Question is whether I'll get my money back. Fortunately I've averaged down to around 4.2p so not as much needed for me to get out compared to many lths. Although I have a few million shares so could be hard going given the lack of liquidity in this stock (because of a lack of news). Time for Hanno to put on his big boy pants and do his bloody job!

Something I think many are missing is the divi payment isn't a one-off. The process allows for every other divi to be paid, which they've committed to being between 20-30% of fcf. So one can quite reasonably expect the 2nd divi payment to closely follow the first, and to be a higher value given poo and gas in q2. We're going to be fine.

First of all you can't bail out fellas. Anyone tried selling the past month or so? You can't even get away 50k. That's how illiquid this share has become. Whether we like it or not we're stuck in a company that cannot hit self-imposed timings, and doesn't feel it necessary to even acknowledge the many lengthy delays to their shareholders.

As for things happening they cannot comment on, what a load of horse****. Hanno can and always has been able to let his investors know that everything is still on track and provide future guidance. Why does SF feel so confident he's willing to buy another 10m shares? Does he have a right to know things the market doesn't? Pretty sure that's against the rules. Also, the tariff is not being held up by 'other things'. It was originally meant to be approved over 12 months ago according to Hanno. Then over 3 months ago post Covid and transmission studies being presented. So the approval never depended on transmission lines being awarded or any other thing for that matter. You don't think the key milestone unlocking the main project (what we've invested in) warrants some form of update when it's 3 months over-due on the latest guidance? What's happened with our partner doing core drills? What's happened with the EPC & O&M contracts that were due over 6 months ago...? Hanno needs to get his **** together and start engaging with shareholders on any of the long list of things he hasn't delivered according to the timelines he has provided. A simple explanation of the delays and what to expect is the least he can do. No more excuses for his complete lack of engagement unless of course people view the shady director's loan to his brother's solar project counts as engagement. I hope Hanno is reading this given some of his greatest defenders on this board are also starting to lose patience. So much for increased shareholder engagement. Another one of those empty promises. This company is starting to look more and more like a typical Aim joke, run by 'somebody's son' who likes to make a lot of claims that he rarely delivers on time and in full.

There's a lot of things the bod need to do to get this moving. The first is to stop saying they're going to do something, and just f'ing do it! And do it on time! The divi will be the kickstart of the re-rate. Once people know there's a +8% yield in a few weeks they'll jump in before the ex-divi date arrives. There's also no reason the bod cannot indicate when the second divi will be paid, in order to ensure the re-rate sticks. Everything else they need to rns as / when they can. Things such as Noel well coming online with boepd production rate. News on the May wells. And hopefully something with the f/o. Most of you know I'm pretty critical of the bod when they deserve it. They do need to get the bloody divi sorted. And when they do, they need to PR it, alongside the second divi payment. If they don't do this then someone needs to be replaced. It's a fundamental part of their job to create shareholder value and they're failing at it. Although the interview was underwhelming, I did appreciate the fact they actually did an interview. It was of course marred by the fact the divi still hasn't been sorted, but once done with a bit of PR then I'm sure we'll be back to +10p in a flash. The other bits of news and we should add a couple more pennies. But they need to get the 1st (and now 2nd) divi sorted, and then start a PR drive. I don't doubt it will happen. Whether they can do it relatively soon is the issue. I'd love to know the reason for the hold-up. If we get a low-ball offer then we'll know there's been some dodgy dealing happening all this time. At this rate if someone offered 13p and had our two biggest IIs on board then I'm pretty sure they could take the lot. GLA

Chris, I never thought I'd read a post like this given you are normally unwavering in your support for Hanno. I think if you've managed to get to this level of frustration then it clearly points to Hanno needing to pull his finger out and start behaving like a professional ceo. Investor comms are in his control and a key part of his job. Hanno has absolutely failed on this measure for some time. Sadly his performance is made even worse by the fact the only comms provided in the past few months have been an opaque director's loan to his brother's company. Hanno needs to do his f'ing job and give his investors an update on the many milestones that have been missed according to the timelines he has provided. Some forward guidance would help as well. When was the last time he provided a list of remaining milestones and timings...? Is this too much to ask of our ceo?

Bloody hell, WTI is now above $65. Absolutely bonkers valuation here. There's plenty of news in the coming 12 weeks and I'd like to see them rns each of them separately if necessary. Even if they think it's a small thing, it's still good news that will accumulate to provide an overwhelmingly +ve impression of the business and direction of travel. I've got the following:

- Circular and date for Q1 divi payment
- Q2 divi payment and date
- Noel well coming online with production figures
- May drill results from f/o agreement
- Plans for additional near-term drilling in Canada (f/o + 100% owned acreage)
- Nth Sea f/o. On this last point if we haven't heard anything in the next 3 months then I'll give up on saying it. They mentioned 'with lawyers' in December and I don't see how or why it should take more than 6 months when we're at that final stage. So expecting by end-July.

All these things except the last point are dead set certainties alongside all of us getting a 7% divi @ current sp (with half paid in the next 12 weeks). Given poo I can see us at 12p very easily at the end of this period. And perhaps 15p if we get the long awaited f/o on good terms. If I can free up cash in another investment and the sp is still below 9p I'll be buying a lot more. GLA

Surely a dull interview cannot be the cause of such a drop when there was a lot of good news in the release. From my pov the hedge is a good thing. We're missing out on very little at the moment, and if poo drops below $62 we miss out on nothing. To hedge at such a high value is a great idea and supports the sp base, which we all know should be circa 13p at the moment. One also needs to keep in mind they haven't yet hedged 50%, and will still benefit from spot upside when they do. I personally see this as a reason to invest, not to pull my money. They need to get on with sorting the divi then focus on the f/o. Once they get these balls in motion the divi is a reason to hold onto your shares every quarter and supports a 5% yield at 12p (at current payout level). And the exploration upside of the Nth Sea becomes a matter of when, not if. Once sorted the exploration value will then be reflected it he sp. If they can sort these two thing in the next 7 weeks then I think we're in for a very strong H2. Certainly far north of the current sp. GLA

Ok so can someone please explain wtf is going on here? WTI is sitting at $64. So it's not poo. If anything we should be going up with every day WTI is above $60. The last update was seemingly very good, and indicated everything was delayed, but still on track. We should be valued at 15p if in-line with our Canadian peers. The value disconnect is now ridiculous, unless of course there's something we're not seeing...? We keep getting told the Canadians really know oil, and yet they're leading the drop. Anyone care to speculate why? Doc - what's happening from your pov given the drop is being led from your side of the pond? GLA

Benjan, I would argue that Hanno has learnt absolutely nothing the past few years. We sit here wanting to know something, anything about our investment, and he doesn't even provide an 'all is well' update. How hard is it to write a f'ing tweet. Or do an investor presentation. Or a Q&A. Or a proactive interview. We're waiting on a number of things that were due last year. No-one is buying, there's only drip selling. Do we need to wait for 5 year lows before the company issues a statement of some kind...?

I think people realize it could be weeks before the circular is issued, and potentially a few more weeks before ex-divi. As a consequence there isn't any urgency to get in now. I imagine once we start to approach the ex-divi date there will be people jumping in. Hopefully the bod will get back out there to trumpet the news and let us know when the 2nd quarter divi will be paid. By the end of this month I'd expect the divi to be finalised, a date for the 2nd divi to be paid, and some news on the May wells (even if it's just to say they've been spudded). The f/o is of course the news that will create the biggest jump, but who knows when that will happen. Still can't get my head around the value disconnect here. It really is astonishing.

we're meant to get an update on the main project this week. Hopefully they'll give us something, anything, to settle the nerves and let the market know that everything is still on track on the main project. They should have plenty of things to update us on given how many of them are over-due. It's easy to forget things like the EPC & O&M contracts that were meant to have been signed off last year. It's not ok to give timelines and continually miss them. Even less ok for them not to provide updates as each timeline is missed and re-set expectations. Hanno has always been sloppy. Historically you don't hear from the guy unless there's a capital raise coming up. No different to other Aim ceo's who are often the butt of jokes on these boards. We'd never be where we are now if he maintained the same amount of shareholder engagement as when he's trying to pump the sp to get some more cash. And we'd be a lot more informed about our investment as a consequence. We're meant to be closing in on one of the biggest milestones for the entire project - tariff approval - and instead we're closing in on a multi-year low. The only times we've been lower than now over the past 5 years was during the pandemic (for 1 week), and then 3.5 years ago (sporadically for 3 months). All we've heard from Hanno in the past couple of months is about the side-project that he set up with his brother and an incredibly generous and opaque loan the mgt team have given to themselves. One can't even sell out at the moment because there's no liquidity. As I've said before, either Hanno provides bull**** timings deliberately, or he has no idea about how long things take for a project such as this. Either way it's not good. I know of a few companies on Aim where 'somebody's son' is running the show. All of them have a similar disregard for promises they haven't delivered to the market i.e. to pretend they weren't made. And all of them are performing in a similar way to nccl. Says something.

Time to give us an update on the main project Hanno!

My thoughts for what they're worth... I agree it wasn't the most stirring interview on the back of a very good update. Most important for me is they've delivered a set of results that allows us to more easily value the company. And as far as I'm concerned they've answered a lot of questions. They have forecast higher NOI. We have confirmation the divi will be paid very soon. And another can be expected to follow soon afterwards. They've executed a f/o where historical drills average 150bopd, which has cost us next to nothing. They have 9 wells to drill in the next 12 months in our new acreage (circa 650 bopd net to i3e). They have a drilling program for our 100% acreage starting in q4. The f/o is progressing and they're confident of a successful outcome. And they have a hedging program to be executed this year for 50% of production, so our fcf (and divi) are protected in case there's another Covid wave. This last point is excellent and seems to be missed by everyone. Yes it would have been nice for the divi to be wrapped up, and the f/o, and the drilling program could be more ambitious and starting earlier this year, but overall they've done very well. They were never going to give us everything we wanted, but have certainly given me the minimum I wanted to see. I'm pretty heavy in this stock but planning to add up to 1m more shares in the coming weeks providing the sp stays below 10p and I can free up some more funds from other investments. Not too many places where if poo stays at this level for the next 6-12 months you'll get a +100% capital appreciation alongside a 6-9% yield (with upside being dependant on exploration success in 2 x jurisdictions). One of these jurisdictions is a given (Canada), and the other is part appraisal (Serenity) and part exploration with more areas to be drilled like the Minos High. If the f/o is secured in the next couple of months then we're likely to have the drilling program before year-end with the mid-case success at Serenity alone taking us to 30p. And one of the best things is we won't be taking on any more debt for this upside. Canada comes from fcf. Nth Sea from a f/o.

The divi statement will be made soon so they can get back out there to tell the world of the cracking yield on offer, when to expect the first and following divi payments, and update us on the Canadian drilling. Hopefully there will be something on the Nth Sea as well. All of this (except Nth Sea) is guaranteed in the next 4 weeks. Never felt more comfortable in this stock.GLA

Where is the interview posted?

Feels like tiny trades are creating a little drop after PIs were expecting a +10% trading bump. I've said previously that I think the market is waiting for the divi to be confirmed, then you'll have people jumping in and holding for their 6.5%. The hold will be there because Q2 will be paid shortly thereafter, alongside results coming from May wells, and maybe even a f/o. I'm expecting a mini re-rate to 12-13p in the run up to ex-divi date. Yesterday's news was v.good. I'm very happy with my money here and to be honest I'm hoping there's a touch more weakness over the next week so I can shift some money from another investment to here. First time in i3e where I don't want really good news to land for a few weeks. The irony isn't lost on me. GLA

Hi Tony, thanks for the analysis and comparison v Gear. Out of interest, what is their debt level?

Yes I think most of us are in the same place Lancaster. But they need to get the main project over the line first. Therein lies the problem.

They don't draw a salary, let alone a massive salary. Given staff are paid in shares one could argue they're perfectly aligned with shareholder interests when it comes to securing a sale of the asset. So not sure how Zioc can be called a lifestyle company. It may be a company where things appear to be happening at a glacial pace, but no-one is taking the p!ss when it comes to getting paid to do nothing. At least that's how I see it. I'll continue to oscillate between 500k to 1m shares depending on my financial situation. I'm happy to wait for however long it takes for this to get sold. Missing out on a potential lottery ticket because of impatience would absolutely kill me. A lack of news won't. GLA

'It’s ALWAYS about the opportunity for regret being distributed equally'. 'ALWAYS', 'NEVER', 'RUBBISH!'.

I described a scenario where Glen buys Zioc for £500m in order to sell onto China for £1bn. Zioc gets a way out where they can rid themselves of a huge asset and make everyone wonderfully wealthy. Glen is happy because they make £500m with the on-sale, which pays for 50% of their share of development costs (plus over-runs). And China is happy because they get a 100 year resource for pocket change. They regain power over Oz, alongside opening up the resource wealth of this region of Africa. Everyone wins. Just Zioc wins less. And China ultimately wins more. You trying to tell me that China would regret this scenario...? Ultimately an outcome that everyone wants is secured. It just requires Glen to line up the Chinese buyer with an agreed value and Zioc to fall into line. If Zioc is holding out then we'll be waiting for many more years. But I'd be surprised if it's them creating the blockage. It matters more to Zioc that a deal is done at a reasonable value, then no deal at all. They have no real power in this relationship, which is why they win less. And China wins more. The blockage is most probably Glen wanting a much bigger value than China is willing to offer i.e. Glen wanting to win the most and China potentially the least.