Member Info for G_G_G

Assuming they were buys yesterday Chris. Who knows what's what with the sp this low.

Currently the sp shows a complete lack of confidence in the project and is now priced to fail. In a way it has to be expected when the market has known nothing about a number of key milestones that have been missed, and then months after an update should have been released we receive yesterday's update. Another display of Hanno's amateurism. Having said this, the rns yesterday said everything I needed to hold on to my shares. It communicated the project is still on track. That a key, well overdue milestone, is approaching final stages of approval. And the delay rests squarely with EDM and the Moz government. I liked how they mentioned that all additional documentation was submitted in December 2020 as per agreed timelines, which to me expressed a polite 'get your **** together' to EDM and Moz. I'm hoping this at least provides a degree of embarrassment for EDM and Moz officials that the private sector and external countries / creditors are all waiting on them to do their f'ing jobs and simply approve the gift of electricity. So I'm less concerned now than a week ago, even with the sp sitting near all-time lows. Easily the best entry point I've seen for this company over the years I've been invested (and watching). Hopefully not too long for some +ve news. GLA

Hi Tony, I totally agree. What I'm saying is the market appears to value our close peers much more favorably than us. It's just a matter of a few +ve news stories / deliverables and we'll move in-line with them, and move significantly higher than now.

Also I think your recent projections could be on the conservative side given recent inputs are less favorable to what many of us have been using until recently. If one takes the Q1 dividend payment as a minimum of 20% and maximum of 30% of fcf, it would suggest annualized fcf levels are somewhere between £16m and £23.2m based on gas / poo for this period. If we take the mid-point of £20m then on these lower oil and gas prices the years taken to buy back all shares and debt would be circa 3.75 at current sp, which is already on the lower end of Nuttall's chart that uses $70 WTI as an annual multiplier.

As for the dividend, I'm of the strong opinion that we'll see a rise to 10p as we approach ex-divi date. It's the traders that create the 20-30% jumps (and dips) in the absence of news. They helped to get us to 11p (and current 8p), and they'll return for their 6-7% divi as the date approaches. If I was clever enough to sell at 10-11p I'd be making my return in the coming weeks as well. It's a safe and easy hold as one knows there's another bigger divi just around the corner, a modest drilling program in new (incremental) acreage is just about to start, possibility of a small share buy-back given we're generating a lot of cash and don't have Clearwater mapped and permitted to throw money at, and there's the 3-5p jump that a Serenity f/o will provide. So yes I think they'll return and push us to 10-11p without any other news.

As for Clearwater, I agree this is what will slowly and surely lift our sp base over the next 12-18 months. But I just don't see us getting away more than 5 drills in the f/o area this year. And I highly doubt they'll have our 100% Clearwater owned drilling program ready before Q1 next year. These guys have never done anything on time, and I expect this to be no different. I don't see the base rising in earnest until we've got a few success stories in the f/o acreage with the initial drills online and flowing, and bigger drilling plans are approaching. This is Q4 at the earliest. But it's one of those things where you'll look at the sp every 12 weeks from Q4 and it will be 2p higher.

On the short-term +ve side I see 2 x chunky divi payments prior to Q4, a couple of 200 bopd wells in the f/o area, and Serenity f/o completed. With these things we're 15p all day with Clearwater exploration (slow-burn) and Nth Sea exploration (significant re-rate) as the following value enhancers. Easy money here. GLA

Agree Tony but the multiples used by Nuttall revolve around fcf at certain prices. If we're at the multiples you've mentioned at the same prices then we should be valued closer to Canadian peers with similar multiples. You're absolutely right on how much torque we can get with more oil, but this shouldn't impact the peer comparison when fcf is the key input. Unfortunately significantly more oil isn't something we're going to be producing anytime soon, however if they can get the bloody f/o sorted we could have 10's of millions of 2P recoverable added in 6 months. With Brent in the 60's (or indeed 70's) I imagine the market would lose its **** and triple our sp from current levels. A couple of hundred barrels of production wouldn't go astray, but it's not going to launch us into the 20's anytime soon. Great that we'll be getting the divi paid sometime in July. At least we'll be back in double digits as the ex-divi date approaches. It's another 2 months but what's 2 months when you've been waiting 4 months. Hopefully some +ve news on the May Clearwater wells in the meantime, and dare I say it, the f/o being agreed. GLA

Maddog, I think the bod recognized they haven't said anything for some time about the main project, or milestones like EPC & O&M contracts being finalized. I noted they still made no mention of the O&M contract. I've been quite vocal on this forum (amongst others), and some PIs have been asking the company for an update, so perhaps that's what pushed an announcement of sorts by Hanno. As annoying as these delays happen to be, at least they have provided an update that to my mind says 'delays but everything is still moving ahead'. I'd rather have an update and know where things stand then sitting here for another month wondering wtf is being done with my money. I also like to think by stating their frustration with the delays, and clearly pointing the finger at EDM for the lack of progress, it will serve to make them get off their corrupt @sses and actually do something for their economy and country.

I imagine we'll hear about the award of the transmission line in the next month, which will be enough for some on the sidelines to re-enter and a bump in sp. This of course depends on EDM (the useless f@ckers) to be a little less useless in hitting their own timings. Hopefully EPC contract will follow soon afterwards alongside tariff news. Whether we get an 'in principle' tariff agreement, or a signed tariff agreement will be the big question. These African nations are run by complete muppets and often hard to pin down wrt commitments. If we're still left wondering about transmission lines and tariff approval at the end of July then it's safe to assume an obstacle is in the way of the project moving ahead. Obstacles in these joke nations are usually removed with brown paper bags or cushy jobs for the bureaucrats in charge. I do see at least two pieces of news that will push the sp upwards in the near future (next 8 weeks), which are transmission line and EPC contracts being signed. How long after these milestones before the tariff is signed is anyone's guess. I don't think it will be in the next few weeks though. My estimate is 2-3 months. GLA

Interesting chart Tony. Interesting to see hos much lower we're valued if compared to the median. Have you looked at the companies with similar multiples to us? I ask because they should have a similar CF v Debt profile. Just glancing at the companies similar to us - ATH, GXE, CJ, TVE - their sp response since November, when poo started its run, is quite different to us. Our peers have appreciated between 3.5-7.5x over this period. Our increase is 1.5x to now. Obviously other measures come into play but one should expect us to be as responsive to improved pricing as companies on the same / similar multiples. Shows how Canada, who supposedly know 'I&G', are still missing us. I expect the re-rate to be quite swift when it starts. Whether it's the ex-divi date, Serenity, or some success in Clearwater that starts the appreciation who knows. But it can't be long to go before we start our rise. GLA

Some PR providing a little more pressure and light being shined on EDM and Moz government, which is good to see. Incredible how African leaders and officials will f@ck things up even when they're effectively being given things for their own good. They haven't even been required to do any of the 'heavy lifting'. Reinforces why the entire continent is such a mess.

Nice that Hanno has remembered he has shareholders to update. Obviously disappointing to get news of tariff delays. There's a lot of reasons why African countries are such a mess. Corruption, incompetence, laziness... but most of all corruption. A few positives here, the first being this rns is effectively saying 'delayed but everything is still on track'. This is what I wanted to hear as a minimum. The second is it mentions for the first time in a long time the EPC contract. Hanno had conveniently forgotten this piece of news, which is probably a year over-due now. Main thing is he has acknowledged this milestone and that it's in final stages. The third is the rns squarely (but diplomatically) points the finger at EDM and Moz as the hold up. It's important the world knows they're responsible for any delays. The rns reminds everyone that additional studies have been conducted at the request of EDM and now the ball is in their court. Perhaps the delays are linked with the transmission line contract. Perhaps it's because they're full of incompetent, lazy, corrupt f@ck ups. Either way the spotlight is now on them to move the project forward. It should be relatively straightforward given the amount of work that has gone into providing a better than previously agreed tariff and the transmission tenders have been submitted and awaiting final award. I take heart from the fact the transmission line is interlinked but also includes additional government, financial and major private sector parties i.e we are part of a bigger picture that is now simply requiring EDM and Moz to get their **** together and sign off on something that has been effectively given to them for their own good. There's also the safety of having other governments and bodies involved in case EDM and Moz officials go down the usual African route of use / abuse of their power and position.

So all on track but delayed is my reading. It really shouldn't require PIs kicking up a stink on various platforms for Hanno to do this more regularly. If in 1 month we still don't have a signed EPC contract (unbelievably over due now), or a signed tariff then he needs to do this again. Hope you're reading this Hanno as it's not hard to do, but welcomed by your shareholders (and it's part of your job). GLA

Cheers fellas. Interesting thoughts. This was the biggest part of my portfolio a little while back. I sold everything (4m shares) in the big rise about 9 months ago to get into a few other places - Bwana mentioned i3e, which is now my biggest holding. It will be interesting to see how this plays out i.e. sp level for the capital raise, and how long before the sp starts its climb prior to production. Often companies will tend to drift downward post financing in the early construction period, before starting a steady rise nearer production. This is why I asked how long after financing before there's a producing mine. Fwiw I think this is a fantastic company and first class mgt. My hope is for some of my other investments to take off so I can make this my biggest holding again. I agree anything under 7.5p should be a safe entry point - This should give a holder an easy 5 bag within 5 years. GLA

Buybacks also help boost the value of mgt shares / options. I wouldn't be surprised if they do it. Don't mind really. If it's taking too long to drill holes in Clearwater and we're generating solid fcf then a small buy-back wouldn't go astray. I'd definitely prefer them to put $10m into 8-10 drills but not if it's going to take 12 months for them to do it then yeah buy back some shares.

Great news on the divi. Delayed but at least it's done. We can then look forward to the H1 divi 8 weeks later in September, which should be nice given current poo and gas. Will be interesting to see what happens when we get the ex-divi date. I imagine we'll re-rate to double digits when it approaches. Hopefully the f/o just afterwards so we not only hold gains but push on to a more palatable valuation nearer 15p. GLA

Thanks Tony, appreciate your work and opinion. Let's hope that PR does finally kick off when they start formalizing divi proceedings. I'm hoping they will provide some guidance on when then second divi will be paid in the coming weeks as well. If oil and gas hold up we should be looking at a bigger payment than the maiden dividend. Based on our strong divi yield, our low debt level, and exploration upside I'm struggling to see how we we're not worth 10-12p now. Hopefully when the divi gets sorted and the PR begins we'll start to see the re-rate.

Unfortunately I don't see Clearwater as providing an immediate re-rate. Definitely a slow-burn, but this does require consistent drilling success. So long as we're drilling and adding 100-300bopd per drill then I can see us edging up by 0.5-1p with each strike. But the issue is we don't have many drills planned for the near future, and those we do are 50% owned and likely to deliver around the 150-200bopd mark (75-100boped net to i3e). So although Clearwater will add significant value over time with consistent success, I see it as a slow burn. If we can deliver 10 successful wells over the next 12 months then I can see an easy 5p added to our sp. This in my books should take us to 15-17p providing poo stays around $60 (and excluding any Nth Sea f/o ro drilling success). But this climb will be weighted to early next year, which is perhaps why people are still f@rting about on their entry. Divi should start to see a mini-movement back to double digits at least. Nth Sea f/o is where we'll get a good jump, especially if the drills are turning this year.

Hi Chris, as you'll be able to see from my posting I've been buying and selling in 3's, 4's and 5's over the past year or so and estimate 4.2p as my average. I've held between 2.5-3.5m shares over this time. Overall down, but not like many on here. I haven't been buying in the past few months. Last purchase was January when Hanno was leading his shareholders to believe we'd be getting news in February. I expected a delay until March / April, but for these delayed timings to come and go and Hanno not to provide any updates to his shareholders for a couple of months is incredibly poor. He needs to front up and give us some news.

GTTM, perhaps come back in a year and ask the same question. We're now into the 2nd half of May and still nothing on the main project.

So you're saying we're valued in line with Canadian peers at current share price based on company NOI numbers provided? That goes some way to explaining the share price then. In the nine points peer report I'd be interested to understand the debt and dividend levels of the companies listed. Surely we'd be rated near the top of the pile and would deserve a better multiple as a consequence. Looks like the ex-dividend and f/o are the things that will get the share price moving again. Perhaps a few more weeks to wait until double digits. Bloody good divi at this level though. It must be around 7.5% at current sp.

Oh probably should have said that it's good to understand what the hold-up has been. Easy to forget how many side deals i3e have made over the years. At least this is now out of the way. Great thing is we never have to go through this process again in order to be paid our divi. Onwards and upwards. GLA

Hey Tony, just wondering if you saw my message from yesterday?

Hi Tony, thanks for your workings. Regarding the below comment from an earlier post, are you saying our fcf yield is 16.6% at current market cap, or at Tennyson's fair value market cap @ 16p? If the former then it would suggest that we're fairly valued, assuming of course that Tennyson's numbers are correct. This in itself may explain the value disconnect we believe is here i.e. there is no value disconnect. I'm too lazy to crunch the numbers myself so appreciate your workings and thoughts.

"Assuming now that the latest Tennyson report paints a more accurate picture than their previous efforts (and I think it does as theirs numbers match more closely with NOI reported by i3e) then I believe that their producing assets (production) is valued more in line with peers. Tennyson report 2021 FCF yield at 16.6% which appears very slightly above the mean on some graphs from Nine Point Capital of Canadian Producers that I have shared here".

What's the build time here again fellas i.e. time from shovels breaking ground to nickel being served?

That's what I'm counting on Robbo. Any +ve news short of tariff agreement and I'll start offloading. Tbh even tariff agreement and I'll take the side door, just at a higher rate. Far better investments out there with ceo's who have earned their stripes and understand their responsibilities to shareholders. To be still waiting for any form of update on the long list of things we're due is far too sloppy for me to stomach. Hopefully I can make a little profit on the way out the door with a lesson learnt. GLA

So much for news this week. Maybe next week, next quarter, next year... It's ridiculous so many key milestones have drifted by and the company doesn't feel it necessary to provide an update on missed guidance, let alone provide new guidance. At this rate we'll be lucky to get anything from Hanno in H1, and then it will probably be another update about his brother's project. The only suggestion of news has come from a twitter group. Utterly pathetic investor mgt, and to think these guys talked about improved investor comms at the beginning of the year. We're meant to be waiting on tariff approval (our biggest milestone in many regards), and we're continuing to go backwards from one of the lowest levels we've seen in the past 5 years. And before anyone says 'they're in sensitive discussions so can't provide any updates', they'll need to explain how SF could pick up 10m shares and how such sensitive news didn't bar him from being able to purchase. Either nothing is happening, or something is happening that only they get to know and act upon. Either way it's a joke. Unless the next piece of news replaces my lack of confidence and faith in Hanno I'll be exiting. Question is whether I'll get my money back. Fortunately I've averaged down to around 4.2p so not as much needed for me to get out compared to many lths. Although I have a few million shares so could be hard going given the lack of liquidity in this stock (because of a lack of news). Time for Hanno to put on his big boy pants and do his bloody job!

Pretty sure those things are part of NOI doorstop.