Member Info for G_G_G

I would hope we have enough funds to take us through to the end of the year. If not, then I'm hoping that SF cashes in some options or provides a director's loan alongside Hanno and co. Given they ponied up $500k for the side project they should be willing to do the same for the main project. Raising down here would be disastrous.

Don't really care if Doc is a trader making his money from pumping stocks. The main thing is whether his claims were accurate. I personally think he makes some big claims of 10x & 20x a little too loosely. Having said this I do believe his assessment of our current fundamentals is pretty accurate and points to us being worth a lot more than we're currently valued. I have ****bagged our bod when they've dropped the ball and / or made promises that haven't been kept. And they still have a lot of things to deliver. But hey have provided enough information and now concrete dates for me to relax a little. They still need to provide us with some hard numbers, but this is just around the corner. And even if we're to be surprised to the downside with our financials, I'm willing to be we're still worth a lot more than our current sp.

Imo we'll start our climb once the divi process kicks off, an ex-divi date is provided, and an estimation of the following divi payment / dates. This combined with some hard numbers being presented to the market so we're not guessing whether Mirabaud or Tennyson or posters on here are correct with their fcf estimations is what should increase our sp and maintain oru value. Fcf is the only measure I care about as everything else is simply confusing. This is the number that tells us how much we'll get in a divi, how much we can afford to drill, how easily we can cover debt obligations, and whether the bod is likely to do any share buy-backs. We'll continue to climb as these things are released and will get a bump with exploration and f/o successes. I'd love to see my pf higher than it is now but never been more relaxed in a share when it has been going south. GLA

Daisy, yes it can be stopped for a multitude of reasons, but the G7 as I've said before do not include China or institutions like Africa Finance Corp. So financing from these entities won't be a stumbling block imo. And the G7 would be a bunch of hypocritical pr!cks if they stood if the way of a project that's almost shovel ready and could bring the gift of electricity (development) to one of the most impoverished parts of the world. Given the majority of environmental damage has been done by G7 nations and their ilk before China and India started developing in more recent years, then I don't think they have any right to cast votes against African development in desperately undeveloped parts of the continent. At least not until they're willing tp produce (and finance) alternatives. Either way I don't see the G7 getting involved in this project. The biggest hurdle is overcoming bureaucratic red tape (corruption), as it always is in these parts of the world. Unfortunately leaders in most of these countries are simply terrible human beings.

Hi Daisy, I think the funding shouldn't be an issue because it will come from China (non-G7) and African Finance Corporation (second biggest shareholder). China are still building coal fired plants, and providing the technology is greener than what has been used over the past few decades then I imagine the World Bank and other int'l parties will turn a blind eye to what is connected to the transmission line. Ultimately it will come down to whether EDM and Moz can get their **** together anytime soon as the longer they leave it the more pressure will be applied toward not building the plant. Once built and the economic effects are felt across the region I imagine they will find it quite easy to extend the plant to 600Mw and perhaps up to 1200Mw. I don't think western nations will or should have any say in this given the damage they have done over decades building their economies, combined with the fact they're not offering a better solution to develop this impoverished part of the world. The problem, as always in these tin pot countries, is the government and local bureaucrats are dodgy f@ck ups so things take forever to get done. Hopefully they can get the ball rolling in the next few weeks / months and sign the bloody transmission line and tariff agreements that have taken years to get to the point and where they just need to put a pen to paper. These two things in combination will signal the project is def. going ahead and I imagine we'll be sitting on 10p in the blink of an eye. I'm betting it will happen because of the sheer amount of work that has gone into getting us to the point where just a couple of signatures are now required.

Also, the first I've heard of any hydro project was Hx's post. Is this correct - there's a 1200Mw hydro project planned in our region?

I think we're in a binary situation here - either the project goes ahead with a coal powered plant as part of the energy mix, or it doesn't.

HX, you've correctly pointed out that a lot of the official government documents related to power in the region are a few years old, that things have changed in that time, and that EDM and Moz government are f'ing useless. I hope that we'll find out one way or another in the next month as this company is really starting to get on my nerves as an investor. Wrt a response on the 'green' credentials of our plant, the link provided isn't accurate. As much as I'd like to convince myself that GE are still our technology partner, the reality is they pulled out of all coal projects worldwide, which I believe includes ours. I say 'believe' because Hanno and our partner haven't specifically stated whether we'll be using GE tech or not. So our tech partner, and how green we happen to be is anyone's guess. Alongside whether the whole thing is going to fall over or not. I'm here because I'm now stuck and can't offload my significant holding without taking a considerable loss. Having said this, I do believe the project is going to go ahead so even if the sp was 5p I'd still be holding a lot of shares. Whether I like it or not, I'm here until the tariff news lands. GLA

Tony, yes I've got a little experience investing in mining stocks. My HZM investment is what allowed me to purchase my share holding in i3e. I still hold a modest amount of shares over there and can't quite work out whether I should pull out and dump the money into here. As mentioned I took a cursory glance at EMO but if you have a link to Doc's research then I'd be happy to share my thoughts - Always good to look into a potential early stage Solg. Wrt being close to existing mines, it was more a point about country risk being somewhat lessened when there's other companies operating nearby. Having said this it's obviously important to have infrastructure nearby that can help mine development. Two examples of late-stage development companies (i.e. close to construction ready) worth looking at here are HZM and EML. These have relatively low country risk. If you want a little more country risk but still fantastic potential I'd say ACP and ARS. All of these stocks I see as 3-5 bag over the next 3 years. I see us as a 3-4 bag over the next 12 months (providing f/o is agreed and drilled). It's why I'm very heavy here and light in a couple of these stocks (alongside the odd moonshot like Zioc). Appreciate the link.

Again well done mong. What other investment pearls can you share with everyone? As for i3e, yes I have done pretty well over there and imagine I'll continue to do well while you wander the boards being an irritant.

Haha JAdam. My other stocks are flagging at the moment but if one of them has a bit of a re-rate then I'll be looking to add even more here. The thing I like the most is the 100% value appreciation on offer in the short term (6 months), providing of course oil and gas prices stay within 10% of current levels and the f/o is done in this time. The fact one can get a divi in the order of 8% at current sp, and half will be paid in the next 4 months is simply a very thick layer of icing on the cake. Unless there's another covid strain uglier than the last round I just can't see myself losing money here this year. It's simply a matter of how much one makes. GLA

It's a funny one Tony. Maybe I've got it wrong, but I would have thought the numbers for Tain stack up, but Repsol need to conclude the f/o with us on decent terms to make the numbers potentially a lot better. I've always thought we're the ones holding up the FID, because we want better terms than Repsol were initially offering. Certainly a good time to be negotiating a f/o in the Nth Sea with an operator sitting on a commercial quantity of oil nearby and under-utilized infrastructure in place. Hopefully something soon as we need to categorially change the drip selling happening at the moment. Even if we do start climbing nearer the ex-divi date as per my reckoning, that's still at least a month away. ATB

Oh dear you're over here as well Duster. The board really misses your valuable contributions at i3e. I can see you make the same valuable contributions here. Well done.

Picked, if it's taken years to get A1 financing off the ground (the so called easy project), how long will Vermelho take? I'll give you a hint, it won't be 2025, or 2026, or 2027 for that matter. It doesn't even have a dfs. Yes A2 will likely be funded via fcf, but how much fcf is being thrown off in a few years no-one knows. And it will require a few years worth of fcf as equity to secure the next major loan. You can talk of $20, $30, $50k Nickel prices, but equally it could be $12, $15k as well. I'm very supportive and positive about hzm as a company over the next 5 years, but to be speaking of 10-15 bags by 2025 imo is fantasy. Realism is not the same as pessimism. And my thoughts of a 5-bag in 5 years is hardly pessimistic. GLA

Hi Tony, ultimately we're not going to know whether Tennyson's fcf projection is correct (or light) until they open the books in a few weeks. Either way the sp is mind boggling low at the moment even in the worst case scenario. Hopefully my view of the traders returning before the ex-divi date is proven correct. Tbh I'd love the Serenity f/o to drop now to teach them a lesson though :) Maybe next week...

Jesus pickedpeck, and you mention my post is full of assumptions. Can't see any of your forecasts happening in the time-frames you've provided. I'd put the probability of 60-100p by 2025 as about 1 in 100. And that includes if the company is taken out during this time. As mentioned I can see this as an easy 5-bag (including the dilution aspect of any equity raise) within 5 years post financing, which would have the company sitting on a £1bn mcap after 2 years of A1 production. Vermelho producing in 5 years is a joke. Look at the time taken for A1, which as you say is a relatively straightforward build. As for adding A2 npv, no I wouldn't do that in the same way as I don't add the npv of oil fields that have been discovered but nowhere near being developed. And the market doesn't do it either. Same goes for Vermelho. You're talking about doing this when the market values the entire company at 20% npv of A1 (and 20% of the current mcap is cash). When a decision to start construction on A2 has been made then some value will be ascribed by the market. And it will gain in value in the same way as A1 i.e. toward 100% npv when it nears full production.

I agree there may be a sp bump on finance providing it isn't too dilutory to PIs. But it will fall back as most of them do to the raise price and potentially below, before it starts a slow but steady climb to full npv value nearer production (likely 3 years from now). This means a likely 2-3 bag over 3 years. Then yes it will be on a producing mine multiple, which will get stronger with a few years showing their operating prowess (and subject to Ni prices). This is a great company. I made quite a bit of money on it in the past year. But I simply don't see 60-100p by 2025 happening in a million years. I do see strong chance of 35-40p in 5 years (2027) though. AIMHO GLA

Hi Tony, it's a funny one the disconnect between Tennyson and the numbers provided by i3e. Wrt options 1 & 3, I think the point I'm trying to make is the company is playing with fire if they're providing the market with lower / higher expectations on the total annual divi payment by back / front weighting the first payment. They have said on a number of occasions they are committed to paying out a minimum 20% of fcf and up to 30%. If you believe the words they're on record saying then you can see why I think someone has got their numbers wrong and our fcf is significantly higher than what Tennyson estimates. Tbh this is the only number I think that matters, as it tells us how much we get in a divi, how much the company can afford to drill etc. It wouldn't be a great look if the company was misleading investors by padding their initial payment and still talking about minimum of 20% fcf etc.

I briefly glanced at EMO. Interesting stock if you got in earlier. Right now you can find stocks on Aim with known resources and quite advanced in mine development for a lower mcap that have proven resources, dfs complete, permitted (or close to it), and financed (or close to it). Granted these companies aren't in the safest jurisdictions, but are in places where mines are already operating. EMO has some historical drilling and is in a safe jurisdiction, but there's a hell of a lot of time and money that needs to be invested before it ever mines anything. Companies that have interesting resources potential such as EMO are all about timing i.e. get in just after a capital raise but before a major drilling program. EMO is at this point but has already priced in success to an extent. It may have a little more to run but I'd be looking to sell right now with double / triple my money without risk. Meanwhile we're another week closer to divi payment (and hopefully f/o news). GLA

Haha Chris. Seriously though, is anyone aware of any other project that can fulfil the energy requirements of the transmission line?

Hi Tony, why do you think 1 & 2 aren't likely? I thought it could be number 2 that is creating the disconnect, hence why I can't square the NOI and fcf / divi values provided by i3e versus the numbers in the Tennyson report. It would also be a rare occasion where the broker report is accurate and the company is leading investors to believe things are far better than in reality by front-weighting the divi payment as described in option 3. Only a few more weeks until we find out in the annual report I suppose. I can't see us going any lower so at least that's a good thing.

Are we certain there are no other power projects in Tete that could service the Moz-Malawi transmission line? In other words, there isn't a giant solar project being planned next door? If not then I agree it's largely a waiting game from here. GLA

Hi Duster, you also need to account for doubling of share count when they raise the finance (or give away % of company or project). If they have an npv 8 of $740m (£520m) and you allocate 30% value at double the number of shares then you'll see the sp at a lower level. Better option for PIs is they sell part of the asset for a decent sum (say $75m for 30%) and use this money as equity to secure their loan. By giving away 30% of the project they negate the need for dilution, and minimise future capital outlay. In this scenario the share price would likely increase form current levels. It's why I was saying being in the company post finance, but years from production, often results in losing money initially. Obviously over the 2-3 years construction period the 30% moves toward 100% of npv and the share price increases at a decent rate. You then get a multiple value of a producing mine (so even greater value) about a year or so later providing nickel is greater than the $16,800 base case. The market is a fickle place where even IIs will sit on the sidelines for a little while to ensure there's no costly surprises or delays. Glencore famously don't do greenfield for this very reason. They'd rather pay more down the lie but know what they're getting. I'm hoping they raise the money soon and it will give me a chance in 12 months to sink a large amount of money for the 2 year construction period at a better share price. They may of course get taken out partially or fully and you guys will make a short term killing, but that's the risk I suppose. Either way I do see this company as a 5-bag in 5 years guaranteed. GLA

Hi Tony, I can't square what Tennyson has said versus the company releases and quotes.

I cannot square company statement of US$31m NOI (not including Noel or any Clearwater production) with the Tennyson figures. Where do you see the company estimate of US$31m NOI marrying with the Tennyson report?

I also cannot square Tennyson's US$13.8m fcf versus company commitment of 20-30% payout when maiden quarterly dividend is £1.16m. Taking the communicated range of 20-30% one comes to fcf £23.2m (20% fcf payment) or £15.4m (30% fcf payment). These numbers are based on poo and gas for the period pertaining to Q1 divi, which we know is lower than current prices. So either Tennyson is quite light in their estimates, or I'm completely missing something. Do these numbers add up for you? ATB

Yep it's a sell. Not mine :) Scary to think 750k is only worth £20k. Not sure what point there is selling at multi-year lows. We didn't even get this low at the height of the pandemic. This has always been a binary pay, so someone either really needs the money, or has completely lost faith in Hanno and co delivering the main project. Unless EDM and Moz pull a surprise I'm not expecting news until H2 now, and hopefully July! If we do drop to the low to mid 2's then I'll def be adding more. Into the bottom drawer for now. GLA