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As I've said Tony it's a binary play but years of work has progressed to get us to the key hurdle of tariff approval. There's 3 key stages following this - Power Purchase Agreement and Power Concession Agreement. Followed by Shareholder Agreement. Then Financial Close. I'd be truly astonished if we hold 40% after the PPC / PCA have been signed. I'd also be surprised if we still exist. I fully expect us to be taken out after the PPA/PCA have been signed so CMEC have ironclad guarantees on the main power project. The government has already stated 600mw coal fired generation from Tete in the next 5 years, which means the plant will double in size over this period of time. As mentioned previously, we're the only coal fired power project in the region. CMEC/China will own a 600Mw plant generating good returns and a 4bn ton thermal coal resource. And they'll effectively be paying themselves to build the plant. If the project goes ahead as planned you can see how it works for China. Works for Moz / Malawi. And certainly works for nccl. Read the last few years of work done and you'll understand how far they have come and why this is a critical juncture. The sp will explode on tariff agreement. And imo when the PPA/PCA are signed it will be sitting around 15-20p in expectation of the partial or full t/o of the project. So you know the solar business is a fully owned separate entity - pointing to the longer term direction of travel.

Tony, as mentioned it's definitely worth looking at the interviews and presentations over the past 2 years to familiarize yourself with the project. To answer your questions:

- Nccl brings a 4m ton JORC thermal coal resource to the table. The coal fired plant is a mine mouth plant, which will be fed directly by this resource. They were originally going to be a coal exporter but pivoted to power given the safe economics if they could find a partner to build and operate the plant. There is desperate need for development (power) in the wider region, which is being helped by entities like the World Bank and other countries. This plant won't be just servicing Moz. The transmission line about to be built goes to Malawi, which is one of the poorest countries on the planet.
- Nccl although £10m mcap now has already agreed with CMEC the amount of historical costs to be returned at FC. There's also other payment elements such as the subscription price when the project reaches FC. We don't know the subscription price but the company has given us ball-parks of about $50-60m being the total amount payable by CMEC to nccl for their 60% ownership. No-one expects nccl to own more than 20% of the company. Mgt have signaled as much in interviews and conversations with PIs. One would expect the subscription price agreement has also involved discussions for payments to acquire an additional stake or the whole project and 4bn ton resource. If you've been following the Australia : China spat over the past 2 years you'd know they put a ban on Australian coal, which has created massive problems for them and to a lesser extent Australia. China has suffered rolling black-outs due to not having enough coal, and have ended up buying Australian coal through intermediaries at higher prices in order to 'save face'. This resource is large by global standards and has rail / port links nearby.

So you have $50-60m being paid on FC by CMEC for 60% ownership. CMEC and a consortium of Chinese banks have already provided finance terms at 70% debt (due to the safe project economics) for the $1bn outlay. This would mean nccl need to find $70m additional equity if they hold onto 40% at those debt terms. I've said I'd be surprised if they hold onto more than 20%, and expect the whole thing to be sold (most on here agree). But if they do hold 20% then the $50-60m they receive on FC more than covers their equity stake and leaves them with funds to finance another 10-20 solar projects of the same size as the recent project. You'll need to go back and read everything I've stated but there has been a lot of work done to get them to this stage. CMEC agreements are mostly done, it's just our f@ck up African partners are dragging their feet on tariff approval. This leads to power purchase contract and FC. I expect us to be taken out when the power purchase contract has been signed. CMEC will then own the whole project (+ future expansions) and gain a huge resource. So CMEC/China can't los

No worries Pete. As I said it's a binary play but if you've done your research you can see why many on here have quite solid holdings and reluctant to sell, even with the continual delays that p!ss me off to no end. I have no idea when we'll get news - it could be a day, week, month or 3 months. But it has to land sometime soon given the delays we've endured already. I also think you've bought the bottom given we were near all time lows for the last 5 years when 2.75p. Anyway, good luck to all of us and hopefully Hanno will have some news on the main project soon. The overdue EPC contracts being signed would signal a big step forward and confidence from all parties the project is going ahead. I'd expect this news to re-rate us back into the 4's at least and maybe 5's. This should be with us in the next 4 weeks if at final stages before signing as Hanno has promised. Having said that, Hanno and his bull**** timings...

Also worth keeping in mind we've jumped 20% in a couple of days. There's bound to be a breathing period and some profit taking before we start again. We're only 10% off double digits at the moment, so hardly a stretch to get there in the next 4 weeks. It's the following 4-8 weeks where the real fireworks will start. But we'll have a nice divi payment and guaranteed additional production to keep us happy in the meantime. GLA

Mace, I'm not calling a day or week but willing to wager we'll hit double digits in the next 4 weeks. This will be driven by the dividend, keeping in mind there will be at least 2 x RNS stating additional hurdles have been cleared for divi payment. This will remind people of the +6% divi (@10p) to be paid within a short time frame. I think some people under-estimate the journey the company has been on to get to a point they can pay a substantial dividend with ease. This will remind them over the coming weeks. Once everything has been settled the ex-divi date will herald a new start where investors get an income knowing the divi will increase with every $ added to poo / gas and every boepd being added to our production and reserves. Anyone with the smallest amount of research would also know in the next 4-12 weeks there's some serious value adds that are guaranteed, such as:

- News of Noel being operational resulting in 400-500boepd (gas) from Q3. Modest jump in net operating profit and fcf.
- News of oil and flow tests from f/o wells. Expectation is another 150-200bopd net to i3e (oil) online from Q4. Modest increase to net operating profit and fcf.
- News of Simonette wells being brought back online generating a substantial jump in boepd from Q4 (300-350 oil, 400-450 gas), net operating profit and fcf to i3e.

And then there's the f/o that one would have to expect is settled within 12 weeks. Given they could conceivably go it alone I'd expect with Brent above $70 they're going to reveal quite a good deal for us, especially given how good they are at making deals.

So yeah, easy double digits in the next 4 weeks from me. And if the f/o arrives in the next 12 weeks I think we'll breach 15p. This would still value us at the low end of peers on all multiples given we'd have close to another 1,500boepd having been added by the start of Q4 (with at least 500bopd oil). Then there's the continual drilling plan on our f/o acreage (9 well plan) plus our fully owned Clearwater acreage. By the end of Q1 2021 we could easily have another 1,000 bopd brought online. And then there's the f/o. If this is settled on decent terms and due to be spudded in Q4 or Q1 then I do think we'll not only breach 15p but we'll stay above it forever more amen. Just my thoughts and supporting reasoning. GLA

Not sure if this signals news fellas. I got into a conversation with some posters on the i3e energy board about nccl. Wasn't cross-ramping but answering questions as I'd said I have quite a bit of money tied up in a binary play that will 2-3x on next piece of delayed news if +ve. I know 3 posters from i3e bought in yesterday afternoon with one of them, Pirate Pete, buying 500k. The lucky buggers have an average of less than 3p. Goes to show how few shares need to change hands for a 20% rise. Reckon we'll hold this level and maybe move upward a bit more while we await news. There's too few shares available, and too few at this price for it to stay down here for long. Even a sniff of tariff approval and we'll be back to 6p in a flash.

Tony, you over here yet?

Tony, it's worth jumping on the nccl's website and watching some of the videos on Proactive over the past 2 years. It's also worth looking at the sp action when milestones have been completed i.e. noting the spikes. This next milestone I would argue is the most important. It's the signal to say the project is definitely going ahead. As mentioned the sp is suffering from delays. It also doesn't help our ceo tends to give bull**** timings on key milestones that end up taking twice as long as promised. This is something that annoyed me the first time I invested in nccl (I made a decent amount of money on the JDA signing then jumped out). I came back because everything I have seen over the years points to the project being commissioned. In the last 18 months key milestones have been impacted by Covid, although they have still achieved nearly all of them. We're now awaiting African partner (EDM) & government agreement on the tariff. Everything they require for tariff approval has been submitted, including some new studies they sprung on us last year. The tariff is more competitive than previously agreed rates, and is overdue by 3 months. We have first-class consultants liaising with EDM and government on our behalf for tariff approval. No doubt CMEC and Chinese government are doing the same. All noises from nccl are 'delayed but positive discussions taking place'.

As mentioned I believe the project will go ahead. When you read and listen to what has been achieved, and the stated government energy targets and plans, it's hard to see how it could fall over. It's just that it's like pulling teeth here, and as you know from i3e it's fickle PIs dictating the sp i.e. no major shareholders have sold anything, only added. Def dyor, but I've never seen a better entry point. I thought my 4p for 2.75m was an incredible average, but I'd wager you could get the same amount for an average less than 3.5p now. As mentioned it's binary, but I'd say a far better chance of success than failure. Tariff agreement I'd expect a 3-bag from current sp within a week.

Hi Tony,

Good to see you over here. There's some quite knowledgeable posters on this board - CF and Chrishutch in particular. To answer your questions, which are quite broad but I'm sure CF and Chris will help fill in some blanks.

1. The $1bn coal fired power plant is the core of the company, although they have recently pivoted to solar (something that p!sses me off but not others). The power plant has gone through many milestones with current partners and is now at the point of receiving government agreement on the proposed power tariff, which is more competitive than previously agreed tariffs. This will effectively green light the whole project. Worth noting that energy democratisation is a core part of government policy in Moz. So at the moment they have a bloody big coal resource, and world leading partner in CMEC to develop the power plant (currently agreed ownership structure 60% CMEC for power plant only when commissioned). The final ownership of the power plant is open to debate but I don't think anyone on here thinks nccl will own more than 20% when they get to FC. Expectation is once tariff, power purchase agreement and contract are signed with state utility (EDM) and Moz government, then CMEC will buy the lot and the coal resource. Worth noting the plant can be easily scaled to 1200Mw with 600Mw slated for coal fired energy in Tete by 2026 in stated government policy. This first stage is 300Mw. We're the only coal fired power project in Tete.

2. I don't know the fcf of the solar project. To be honest I believe once they get the coal plant over the line they will pivot to solar with a huge amount of funds. They have stated this is their future, so I'm expecting CMEC to buy them out of the coal plant (perhaps they retain 10-20%) and they become the leading small scale solar developer in Southern Africa. This first project will generate around $18k per month from memory, but I'm not sure how much is fcf. It's really something to keep the lights on while they get through the next stages of the coal plant. Mgt mostly take salaries in shares and they're very lean with regard to costs.

3. Again no idea how much we have in the bank until they publish it. In the past mgt have cashed in options at very high prices (near 10p) in order to avoid dilution. At a guess they will have cash to last until beginning Q4. But they now have Scott Fletcher on board who is a multi-millionaire and owns over 20% of the company. He has many options and I'd expect he will cash them in if / when we need some money. As mentioned the $18k per month from the solar project would probably be used if necessary as well. SF and mgt provided a loan for the first solar project recently ($500k). This was non-dilutive but carried a ridiculous coupon. Makes no difference if the coal plant goes ahead.

4. Not sure how many employees. They employ consultants for the submissions and heavy lifting. See recent rns for an example of consultant involvement, who are firs

Hxul, yep agree this is most likely the future for large scale batteries - It's why BMN is incredibly attractive long term. But for small scale battery requirements nothing beats lithium for now.

First hurdle cleared. So much news to be delivered in the next 4-6 weeks. Canadian drilling results, divi payment, Canadian wells being brought back online, and maybe even a f/o. I'm expecting an rns every week from now. We're going to be back in double digits in no time!

Agree Tony but there's other stocks that look pretty good for +50% in the near term as well with relatively low risk profiles. Some of them are resource stocks mentioned in a previous post to you. If i3e stays under 9p then I get my +50% on new money invested.

Good interview. Another 42500 for me. Just want one of my other stocks to jump. If I can free up the funds I'll be adding another 1m providing the sp is below 9p. This is a dead set no-brainer. GLA

Agree CF but as Daisy points out it makes no difference if we're still waiting for another couple of months for any feedback. One also needs to keep in mind our f@ck-up partners in EDM and Moz waited for months before coming back with a request for more studies last year. Until the tariff is agreed, and I don't mean 'in-principle', then our project cannot move forward. As for the EPC & O&M contracts, yes I agree they're nowhere near as important - I've been saying for years now the tariff is the most important milestone following the JDA. Having said this, they are still critical milestones, and more importantly point to our partner and us believing the project is definitely going ahead. They're also more than 6 months over-due. These things were in nccl and CMEC control so as far as I'm concerned they point to Hanno not having a f@cking clue about timings, or he has deliberately misled investors on how long things take to be completed. Not great either way. I noted he only referred to EPC contract agreement, and not O&M. What happened to that contract? I hope Hanno and co are on the phone every day to EDM reminding them of how long it has been since everything has been submitted (more than once). And the fact a higher tariff had been agreed in the past, so what the f@ck is the hold-up. At this rate the following milestones are likely to take years and the power plant won't be operational for at least another 5 years.

CF, clearly the market doesn't share your optimism or enthusiasm for the side-project i.e. the family project we didn't invest in, but Hanno invested in on our behalf. I couldn't give two ****s about the solar project. I'd rather they spend their time getting the main project over the line. For starters it would help if Hanno was able to deliver the signed EPC & O&M contracts promised for the end of last year. Every time I read something about the solar project it p!sses me off. When I think of the opaque director's loan then I get even angrier. I'm fully expecting our directors to step up if / when our company runs out of cash in a couple of months. And I don't mean participating in a 2p capital raise with warrants attached or a loan with a 50% coupon. The best avenue would be SF cashes in some of his warrants so we have enough money to keep the lights on whilst we wait for everyone to scratch their collective @asses. As usual we'll need to rely on SF to keep this boat afloat.

Hi Chris, nope not on Twitter. I'm a social media voyeur, but prefer not to 'expose' myself on the various platforms :) I do keep abreast of the little information to be found on nccl though. Anyway, hopefully some tariff news this week - It's only 4 months overdue.

Yep credit rating and ability to borrow improves with divi, and this is further supported by the hedging program. I know some on here don't think it was a good idea, but imo it's one of a number of sound business decisions they've made recently and why I'm very confident of our future. We're now able to grow rapidly, but still have insurance if Winter is worse this year. Yes the bod should have provided us with more details by now, be more engaging, and ambitious with our Canadian acreage, but I'm confident what we do know and are about to find out will more than address these drawbacks. This recent acquisition is another example of sound decision making.

Regarding the Nth Sea, if they can't get a f/o over the line in the next month then I'd like to see them pay the circa $30m required for 2 more drills. The greatest amount of value for this acreage will be made in the current oil environment. If Repsol are f@cking us around then we're in a position to go it alone. We have cash, and we're cash making. I'd much prefer a Nth Sea drilling program to a share buy-back. In the success case Repsol could end up having to do a deal with us on multiples of the current offering if the drills confirm the suspected oil resource and a connection to Tain. The bod obviously need more time to get their heads around the best places to drill in Canada and secure all the permitting. In the time it takes to finalise Canada they could have a drill plan ready for the Nth Sea (with a lot of the work already done), which would be paid for out of fcf and a modest loan (and/or modest capital raise). In the success case of 100m recoverable we could 5x from here for a loan of less than US$25m. And we'd still have funds to drill our 9 well f/o agreement plus 10 or so drills in our own Clearwater acreage over the next 12 months. That's a lot of drilling and a hell of a lot of potential upside for $25m. Canada drilling alone should yield 2,500-3,000 bopd so we'd be able to pay off the loan (plus past borrowings) within 18 months providing poo stays around $60. I see this path as providing huge reward (base case) for very little risk. Welcome thoughts. GLA

These guys have gotten a lot of things wrong over the past couple of years, but one cannot say they're not very skilled deal makers. This is a cracking rns. Even in a high oil price environment they're doing deals on multiples similar to what is expected when poo has cratered. Expecting us to be back into the 8's and perhaps 9's on the back of this. Few more weeks and we're double digits.

Hi Gilt, I agree Doc tends to get carried away with his projections. For someone who talks about 'data' and 'research' he should know the market rarely values a company in line with their resource base or 'potential'. Having said that his research i.e. not projections, is pretty solid imo. And I do believe with a f/o and some drilling success we will break 30p. But that's 12-18 months from now and requires poo and gas to stay near current levels.

Tony, you asked me what I think of EMO. Have to say that it does look very interesting wrt potential resource size and it's near surface so relatively easy to mine (pending more drill results). But it's very early in its cycle and needs a lot more proof to support some of Doc's assertions of 20x. It has some historical drill results, otherwise it's all trenching and rock chip samples. These things are often bull**** and used to attract early investment for drilling. Granted this is different due to some historical drill results, which are impressive. Plus it's a prolific area. There's also the benefit of EU funding (in the distant future). But there's a hell of a lot of drilling and money to be raised before they get to a PFS, let alone a DFS, for just one of the resources Doc talks about. And the $5m they have in the bank won't go far when it comes to proving anything other than a potentially economic deposit exists. This means they need to raise more in the near future, or find a partner at an early stage to pay for the drilling and feasibility studies. So I'm going to stick with my earlier point about it being very early in the cycle, valued quite high at the moment for what is currently known, and there's a lot of money to be raised before they have any real idea of the resource size. From my experience these stocks are all about timing. If you timed it before doc started his coverage then you've 3x and there's no downside risk until the drill results are released. After drill results are released it may double, but they still wouldn't have anywhere near enough assays to have a solid idea of resource size and overall economics. So at the end of the drilling campaign they will need to raise again, regardless of success or not. I doubt PIs will get to participate in said raise if initial drilling is successful, but Eric Sprott probably will get to wet his beak. In the distant future the mcap could end up 5x current (over £300m), but there's so much time and money to be spent before this happens. And depending on how many shares they need to print over this time period (and raise price) the return could only be 2-3x from current sp. In summary, it is super early stage and already valued more than i3e, which is operating, profitable, has more cash in the bank, pays a dividend plus has substantial upside with the drill bit and f/o. And any discoveries can be brought online within months. So if I had a spare £100k I'd stick it in i3e, or hzm, or eml, or acp, or ars. AIMHO

Thanks Chris, out of interest who did you speak with from nccl? And did they provide any additional detail wrt when they expect to hear something, anything from EDM and Moz?

Equally Chris, this has been dragging on for years and every step forward is met with a step backwards. I'm unsure how they project could fall over after the amount of work that has gone into it and the stages completed. But these final stages involve dealing with a corrupt bunch of pr!cks, as you do anywhere in Africa. It's now out of our hands and EDM and Moz gov.t could conceivably pull the plug because their brown paper bag isn't big enough. Never mind they need to do nothing other than keep their hand out of the cookie jar when the project is up and running. Never mind the difference it will make to the people and economies of the region. This is Africa. And the only thing these leaders and bureaucrats think about is themselves. The entire continent is an oft repeated bad joke. Binary play. We either go bust on the back of incompetent, corrupt African officials. Or we survive to move toward the next stages that will no doubt drag on as well. Hopefully the latter. Hard to see how so much could be wasted after all these years. But stranger things happen.