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Agreed extrader. The solar side of the business is full of mystery. I don't care what they do, or how they do it, providing they focus on, and finalize the coal side of the business. That's what I've invested in. We must be worth taking over just for the value of the coal resource to China. Not to mention the coal resources in the wider area could power China for a decade. Hopefully not too much longer to wait.

Definitely two ways to look at this deal extrader i.e. glass half full / empty. Until I saw the interview I couldn't quite make up my mind which way I was leaning. The interview has provided me with enough confidence in the main project moving forward, and my view that we'll be split into two business entities, or more likely bought out of the coal business. It deos feel like a fairly clear path they've put us on, just not one they can publicize or promote until the main project moves further forward. A partial or total sale would also would provide a simple, elegant way to tie up the project and move ahead with nccl's long term ambition of being a solar / battery energy supplier. Far too much work has been done, and we're now at such a late stage, it's almost inconceivable the main project could fall over now. And the need / benefits provided by base load power generation for the wider region is immense. If they scale to 1200Mw coal generation would still be a small proportion of total energy production in Moz. But the benefits would be massive in terms of accessibility and reliability. I do feel more confident that news will be delivered relatively soon i.e. in the next 8 weeks. As mentioned I'd like to see the EPC contracts signed before the end of June release. This will provide a solid re-rate from these levels and keep people believing / happy whilst we await tariff finalization hopefully in the days / weeks following. AIMHO GLA

Poo going berserk and we're going backwards. Mind boggling market action and valuation. I noted people talking about i3e being a t/o target. Something I've been saying for a little while now. I'd be absolutely amazed if i3e wasn't rated highly on a number of lists given how undervalued we are at the moment, which is exactly the time a t/o will happen. We have South Simonette, Clearwater and Nth Sea acreage with huge resources and relatively fast monetization avenues. The Nth Sea is the one that would take the longest amount of time. But if we execute a f/o with Repsol it can be brought online very quickly. Production of 10kbopd (Brent) could be added almost as quickly as the +50 or so wells needing to be drilled in Canada to produce the same amount of revenue. All things a predator would be considering. Given fair value for current and soon to be added production sits us somewhere between 15-18p on most metrics, a bid of 20p would give the buyer fantastic value, and I'd say most shareholders reason to be happy. I do think the IIs would sell as they'd be handsomely in profit. And I'd be more than happy to take 20p tomorrow rather than 12-18 months from now, so they'd get my not so insignificant holding no questions asked. Having said this if I need to hold for another 12 months for 20p and pick up dividends for my patience then I'm more than happy for this to happen as well. I also don't think divi policy has any bearing on whether we're a t/o target, or being set up to be sold. It's simply wise mgt given the roller coaster we've been on and could be back on depending on what happens to Covid this winter. AIMHO GLA

Really good interview. Based on what Hanno has shared I'm confident the main project is still going ahead. Hanno's words:

'We continue to make positive progress with the main project'
'The discussions on the tariff with EDM and Government as well as our strategic partner remain positive'
'It's fair to say it's a fairly sensitive time for the project, and we are having to move things forward very carefully and diligently, but we will provide an update at the right time'.
'Important to say the main project is still progressing well, and we look forward to providing an update in the future as soon as it's the right time'.

They've reconfirmed that everything is on-track and they remain positive on the outcome. Can't really ask for much more given they're still in negotiations. I'm still of the opinion that we'll be part or wholly taken out by CMEC. Perhaps sooner than we (I) think. I always thought it would be at the shareholder agreement stage, just prior to FC. Starting to think it could be post tariff being signed. Why pay a subscription price and back costs etc. when you can add a bit more and take the lot.

The solar side of the business is certainly interesting. It also sounds as though this will be spun off into a separate entity. Question is how much ownership do nccl shareholders end up with given we have largely financed NGP until now. They will have to give us something. Whether it's a token gesture, who knows. Certainly will be a lot easier if they've settled the tariff and we're all happy with the status of the main project. Even easier if they settle the tariff and sell the entire project, including the coal resource. I didn't invest in this side of the business but have no doubt about the growth opportunity for the continent, in particular in Sth Africa with it's energy needs versus energy supply. The recent 100Mw ruling effectively opens the pathway to building many of these projects around the country. They will no doubt have many investors lined up to help finance as well. Just hope they get the main project sorted soon. If I had to guess I'd go with somewhere between 2 weeks to 2 months before we get news. The end of June update would certainly be a good time to provide more than what we've been given to date. Hopefully we'll have the EPC contracts signed by then. This will give the sp a boost as it signals CMEC has confidence in the project moving ahead. Really is an incredible entry point for a believer. GLA

hxul, Daisy, it really does depend on whether you think the glass is half empty empty or full. One could easily counter your opinion of what's happening with saying nccl is expecting the tariff and perhaps sale of the project to occur before q3 and moving ahead with the solar side of the business. I don't believe the main project is dead in the water. As I've said before there's an immense amount of work that has been completed to date. Can you please explain why nccl, CMEC, EDM and Moz government wouldn't announce the project is dead in the water already if indeed this is the case? Other than legal requirement to do so, why would they have wasted so much time and money to get the project to this stage? Re-read milestones achieved over the past 6 even with Covid delays. Why have nccl recently called in consultants to help finalize the tariff? Why are they still working with CMEC to finalise and sign EPC contracts? To be honest I'm at a loss as to what your arguments are against the project. Daisy, I get there's a lot of overly optimistic posting at times, but I'm unsure as to what your reasons are against the project going ahead? You seem to turn up and troll posters who have been calling X pence at X date to remind them of how wrong they've been, but not sure what else? Both, please feel free to provide reasoning for your pessimism on the main project based on what we know has happened. And please don't use the whole 'coal is dead' argument. It's not dead in most parts of the developing world, and projects are going ahead unabated across Asia as we speak. Our partner also happens to be Chinese.

The other massive advantage Tony is our low debt level, which gives us scope to take on more debt for production or acquisition. And as you've mentioned the free carried exploration / reserves upside of the Nth Sea is a massively positive unknown. Stupefying undervaluation here.

My hand is up on the first two questions, not sure about when news is due but I do know it's 4 months closer now :) Unbelievably frustrating stock but funnily enough I was about to reply to the tweet post with a 'who gives a £$%' response and it made me re-look at NCCLs twitter feed. Although everything hasn't progressed in the way we'd all like on the main project from a timings perspective, it did remind me of how much has been completed over the past 6 months. And how much money SF has invested since joining the board. All of these things, alongside the £750k oversubscribed raise at 4.5p made me fee a lot more confident that we're going to move ahead, albeit slower than expected. I also re-looked at our sp range since the JDA and it reminded me we're at record lows, and how often our sp has moved 50-100% from such levels on relatively unimportant news versus what we're awaiting. The tariff approval will be the biggest news in the history of the company so I'd expect it to set new volume records for the week and month. When you have the equivalent of the entire free float being circulated over the course of 1-2 weeks it will certainly be interesting, especially when a few PIs adding 1m shares between them sends the sp up 20%. So imagine 50m buying pressure over a week. The project can of course fall over, but I don't think this will happen. It may just drag on for a little while longer. GLA

Clearly the market doesn't care whatsoever for the solar side of the business. Luckily we have results due end of this month so Hanno has to update the market on everything. Hopefully we'll hear something before-hand. Only 2 more weeks. GLA

Interesting Tony. Reminds me of the flip side of being so undervalued - We're a t/o target. We talk about true value based on peer metrics being circa 15p when including soon to be added production. One of the issues we may face is getting taken out before we reach those levels. Surely we're on people's radars at the moment. Once we get a few exploration successes in Canada and a Nth Sea f/o I'd imagine a bid will be incoming unless we've re-rated to a level of 15p or above. This would only value us in line with our peer group, with significant growth upside and no debt burden. So still a better prospect than most of our peers.

As I've been saying I think we'll continue to move upward as we approach ex-divi date. This in itself will serve to remind the market of how much cash is being generated by the company. It should also get a few more eyes focused on the value proposition in the near term as well. With another divi payment just around the corner, a stated 20% min fcf pay-out and oil production being added, one can see how we'll be sitting closer to 12p in the next 8 weeks. Providing poo stays buoyant I'm expecting us to be circa 18-20p in 6 months on the back Noel being brought online, f/o success and continued drilling of 9 wells (+75-100bopd per well), Simonette wells brought back online (720boepd inc 300 oil), Serenity f/o and drill commitment pre-Q1 2022, expansive Clearwater drilling plans Q4 / Q1 2022 (+10 wells). With oil staying +$60 I simply cannot see how the company would be valued at anything less than 15p and when we start drilling in Clearwater / Nth Sea in Q4 / Q1 2022 I believe we'll be sitting at 20p very easily. Given we'll have a guaranteed +2000boepd (1000 oil) from Noel, f/o and South Simonette in 6 months the sp could double and we'd still be under-valued versus peers on all metrics. And then we have the additional upside of Serenity and Clearwater. And we have next to zero debt which means scope to add production by acquisition or drilling with further borrowing! Easiest and safest double your money investment I've seen in recent years. AIMHO GLA

Main project Hanno. Main project.

Forgot to add that Moz EDM aren't really on the hook for all that much investment and 'resources'. They simply need to keep their hands out of the cookie jar, which is perhaps the hardest part of the project for them. There's also the Malawi link i.e. it's not just about electricity for Moz, but the wider impoverished region. It really would be a bureaucratic / diplomatic cluster f@ck if they pulled out now.

Yep I often have the same thoughts extrader. Then I comfort myself with the fact nccl and CMEC have spent a lot of time and a reasonable amount of money to get us here. EDM and Moz have also been involved and requested additional studies to be conducted. And there's the time spent now negotiating the tariff. It wouldn't be the first time a f@ck up African nation f@cks things up. But the time and money invested in the power project, alongside the transmission line project, alongside their stated aim for Tete power generation, would be a diplomatic 'own goal' of the highest order for the project to be kyboshed at this late stage. Why would any external entities, government or private, waste their time trying to help Moz in future if this is how they go about things. Having said all this, this is Africa, and these things do happen. We're now almost 3 weeks from the last update. I expect another update on the main project this month, be it an 'all's well and still waiting', and / or signed EPC contracts. GLA

Not yet Tony. As mentioned if nccl news drops (please god make it happen), then you'll see me topping up as I'll shift some funds from there to here and add at least another 1m shares. Very happy with my investments, just annoyed I can't free up funds to buy more at this sp. Really is quite incredible the value disconnect here from every angle. And it keeps getting bigger with the recent deal done, and committed plans to expand oil production in the very near future, alongside poo going from strength to strength. I thought the recent deal was the spark to get the fire started. Looks like we'll need to wait for divi to be sorted and the ex-divi date for the next spark. Unless dare I say it we get a f/o. Or we hit 300bopd flow rates in our f/o wells. Good thing is we have so many more sparks to get this moving in the next 4-8 weeks. Now if only nccl can get it's news in the next week or so. GLA

Hxul, I agree with everything you've mentioned. As I've said it's a binary play, albeit one with a huge amount of work done, further supported by a government with a stated ambition of power accessibility to 10 million of its people by 2024. The Tete region is part of the power generation roadmap. And Moz have recently approved another power project in the south of the country, so are executing their plan (slowly). Given these things, to my mind it's not a simple flip of the coin rather I think it's more like 80:20 in favor of the project going ahead.

The issue like most things in Africa is how long will it take for us to move to the next, most important stage on the project timeline. Days, weeks, months...? Who knows. What is for certain is no other major milestones move ahead without tariff approval. IMO even the early works and EPC contracts have stalled while waiting for tariff approval from EDM / Moz. This is understandable. Why continue doing all the work (and incurring costs) if your key partner is doing f'all. By putting everything else on hold it also puts some pressure back on Moz EDM to get their act together because every month wasted with them scratching their @sses is another month delay to the plant being operational. Basically there's no more important milestones that can be delivered concurrently while they f@ck about.

One point made by another poster about 'haggling over the price' is something that I do believe is accurate. To my mind the tariff has been submitted with the requested additional studies, so if more information was required we should have found out by now. And if the project was going to be mothballed, or cancelled altogether, we should have found out by now. After all it has been 5 months since they received everything they needed to agree the tariff. Given these things I take a small amount of solace in knowing the project is currently alive and most probably only requiring an agreement on the tariff.

Hopefully not too long to wait. If we're still twiddling our thumbs without word on anything at the end of this month then I'll start to get worried and annoyed once again. Hanno needs to keep us abreast of anything he knows, and to allay any fears we have about the project being dead in the water. He has a habit of saying nothing until the share price has drifted by 20-30% and PIs are emailing and raging on this board. A simple 'we're still in negotiations and confident blah blah' will suffice. So far he has failed miserably on his timings, and on managing investor expectations. He needs to do better. Having said this, if he delivers the tariff then all failures will be forgotten and he'll be hoisted on PIs shoulders as we celebrate an instant 3 bag from current sp. I think this stock offers a very good risk : reward proposition, especially given the instant 3-bag news is overdue and could conceivably happen any day. AIMHO GLA

Sounds plausible. Unbelievable how EDM and Moz can't get their act together for their own good. They don't even need to pay anything. The rest of the world is doing everything for them and they still can't get their **** together to sign some papers. Hopefully we'll hear something in the coming days / weeks. It would certainly make for good news - Moz / EDM appoint transmission line contractor and agree tariff for the power plant connecting to it. GLA

Looks like I might be able to get a sub 9 top-up. Utter madness.

Chris, buyers at the end of the week were PIs from i3e who had come over for a look. They understand, as do we, the project and company is a binary play. Although everything points to a successful outcome, there's a few stages left before it becomes a reality. Undoubtedly the most important milestone in my mind is the tariff agreement. This is where EDM and Moz show their willingness for the plant to be built. I don't think it's a 50:50, more like an 80:20 chance of this happening imo. But when, who knows. Logic says we've spent 4 months negotiating a tariff that was more competitive to the tariff they approved in the past, so it should be relatively straightforward and soon. And yet here we are 4 months later waiting for our African friends to wake the f@ck up. If we get a sniff of approval we'll be back to 6p in a flash. Approval itself and I think we'll be 8-10p. We could of course break this number given the many milestones that have been completed over the past 18 months and those that will quickly follow. The signed EPC contract will add a penny or two for instance. I get the feeling that CMEC is stalling on this until the tariff is agreed. Same goes for the site inspection and core drills. Why spend millions doing this if you don't have a commitment on the project going ahead from your f@ck up African partners . Tariff approval will unlock everything remaining. If / when it happens the re-rate will be pretty spectacular. Hopefully in the next few weeks. GLA

Nice end to the week. Some of the new guys are going to be laughing if we get merely an 'in principle agreement' in the next few weeks. There's also the EPC contract, which I believe will draw in quite a bit of focus, as it will clearly say that everything is still moving ahead according to nccl and CMEC. I don't think EDM and Moz government would be wasting CMEC and China's time if the tariff wasn't going to be approved. On approval I'm thinking 8-10p, or 30-£37m Mcap. This would still be less than the value of monies coming back to nccl from CMEC, barring any t/o of course. Given the free flat is relatively small and tightly held I'm expecting the increase to be very fast indeed. GLA

Mace, I agree with you that without news driving a change the sp is more likely to drop back (and silly sp predictions are fantasy). But it's worth keeping in mind we got some positive news and PR that has taken us back to 9p. And given how under-valued we are versus peers on every metric, I'm a little surprised it hasn't moved us further. Perhaps we stay around this level, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if 10p is broken next week. Tony and myself have pointed to things that are guaranteed to lift our base over the next 4-12 weeks. People spouting 'here we go' , 'all aboard' etc for no real reason are normally worth ignoring, but imo these 'knowns' are not. I've been saying for a little while the divi payment process being sorted and ex-divi date will get the ball rolling (next 4 weeks). But when we're being paid a +6% divi and these other pieces of news hit I think we'll quickly find ourselves moving toward peer valuation, which will be circa 15p when extra production starts getting added (12 weeks from now). Worth keeping in mind with Noel, some f/o well success (200bopd net), and Simonette being brought back online, we'd still be generating a +5% divi at 15p due to the extra cash we'd be throwing off. The market just needs to see some proof of thse things before it puts us on an equal footing with peers. There's also a lot more wells to be drilled in the next 6-9 months. And then there's the f/o. This stock is perhaps the best I've invested in other than hzm before it went on a crazy run.