Member Info for G_G_G

FF, we didn't need IIs to get to 16.5p. And we wouldn't need them to get to 25p with Serenity f/o and Canadian drilling. They haven't been adding. PIs have provided the sp growth. The bod could have raised $10-15m from PIs alone at a higher price and put it toward 10-15 drills in Canada. This would have been sp accretive in the very short term (+2500 bopd (oil)). Instead they have given away a lot of the company to their II mates. Problem with too many IIs is the bod can do this with them in future whenever they choose, at whatever giveaway price, and it will be voted for because the IIs keep getting more discounted shares, and the bod keep awarding themselves more options. The PI only benefits when the sp drops below placing price. Otherwise they get diluted to hell.

I'm also wondering now when Serenity news will be dropped. And whether it will go down like a wet fart. Bod are a bunch of untrustworthy pr!cks, it's just they recently delivered on some promises.

Someone will need to explain how an increase of 84% boepd equaling a 70% NOI increase means a greater proportion of oil...? It means less oil in the boepd increase unless oil has become less valuable overnight?

· Increase NTM production 84% to 18,470 boepd (47% oil and NGLs)
· Increase NTM net operating income 70% to US$75 million

As for people thinking this is a good deal. Yes as I've said it's a good deal. It's an incredibly good deal for IIs. And for the bod. But it's a **** deal for PIs. They could have raised half the amount, taken the other half in debt (negligible given production profile) and allowed PIs to participate in the raise that would have no doubt been higher. They had massive II interest so it doesn't strike me as being a difficult sell at 12.5p. Absolute b@llocks if you think the bod have done us a favor. They've have awarded themselves a ton of options for giving away a much larger proportion of our company to a bunch of pr!ck bankers. Those same pr!ck bankers weren't the ones that drove up the share price the past couple of weeks. And no, there won;t be more 'coming aboard'. They've taken their position.

The bod could have acquired this company in a multitude of ways that would have been far more +ve for PIs. And they still would have received their options. But instead they have done what the did previously, which is to show their PI base little to no regard, and maximum regard to IIs (and themsleves). Unbelievably disappointed in what they have done. I hold 0.5% and will vote against the acquisition. And guess what, the value of my holding will increase if it gets rejected. Think about that before you vote in favor of this acquisition. It will also send a strong signal to the bod and their mates about f@cking over PIs in this way. Unquestionably good deal for IIs and bod, but at the expense of PIs. It shouldn't be this way. And to think they've literally just re-built trust from their PI base and they go and do this. Disappointed to say the least.

Thanks CF. So there is an 'official' transmission line link. It would therefore be nice to hear the transmission line tender has been awarded to a party if it has already been unofficially communicated to participants and members of the public. It would provide some welcome relief and confidence to PIs if indeed this has happened.

You mean we'll know the transmission line (that we may or may not connect with) is happening in a few months (maybe) when EDM / Moz confirm it is officially happening (not unofficially to PIs). So for it to mean something it needs to be confirmed through official channels. And even though we've commented on it a number of times, we need to officially be linked to the line. To my mind this means nothing (no offence Hammerphil), and if it did our sp would have moved forward, not backwards today.

Pretty simple what needs to happen. Hanno needs to sort out the EPC contracts and our 'going concern' wrt funding. These things are certain and in his control. He also needs to get us some official feedback from the muppets at EDM. It's becoming a bad joke that we're 5 months overdue feedback based on Hanno's timings. We don't even have an idea about whether their response will be an official approval. Lots of 'official' wording in this post.

Jesus Bwana, seriously? No it won't be the IIs that re-rate us. Absolutely incorrect. They will hold a significant amount of shares, but not as many as they have been given. And they won't be the ones who keep buying to drive up the share price. PIs will do this, as they have done recently. This is usually the case. IIs provide the base. But they will shrink their base from the raise allocation for a quick buck. And then, sometime down the track when they are happy with their profit, they will sell and drop the share price to reallocate funds elsewhere. Surely you're familiar with this tale...? So much of investing is about research and timing. The research is in one's control. The timing largely out of it. But when your bod is playing for the other team it really doesn't help one's ability to time investments. One also needs to keep in mind the bod get all their options now. So they don't really get diluted for pulling off this deal.

No doubt oversubscribed. It's the deal of the century for IIs. They must be laughing their @sses off at PIs and posts like mine right now.

Not to mention the H1 divi, which I expected to be 50% higher than the special divi. This will now be split across an extra 50% of shares, without the benefit of the extra production / revenue of the acquisition. So IIs get to take shares en-masse alongside a massive bite of our H1 dividend. All just before Serenity f/o and Canadian drill results. Bod really have played a blinder for the IIs. From every angle.

Jollygoodya, have a read of my previous posts so you can see the many ways they have rewarded their II mates and not PIs. They could have used 50% debt and given us the opportunity to acquire 10% of the remaining 50%. This would have resulted in 50% less dilution alongside the raise price would have been higher. All with a minimal debt load versus production and financials. And we'd still have all the benefits you have mentioned. Even better they could have done this post Serenity f/o and Canadian drilling results. So far, far less dilution due to a significantly higher raise price. In fact one could imagine the share price pulling further away from the raise price if this was done. Absolutely incorrect on them not having shafted PIs. No reasonable argument can be made against this. They've pulled off a good deal, but completely shafted PIs and rewarded IIs to get it done. They're back to being a bunch of c@nts who you can only trust if you're an II. They better get out there and start PR'ing this 'great deal for PIs'. Longer term hold now, but make no mistake, they're not our friends.

Sorry Hammerphil, but if you know who was awarded the transmission line contract, and the project is something nccl has commented on previously (and directly related to our project), then they are in a position to comment again. Otherwise they should never have commented previously (on a number of occasions). Can't have it both ways. If indeed you are correct about the tender having been awarded, and it's now common knowledge amongst PI's, then I would expect an announcement from EDM / Moz with nccl following immediately afterwards.

Sorry fellas but you need to stop looking at multiples based on reserves. The only multiples worth valuing us against are financial and then compared to peers. Fwiw I think 'true value' once the dust settles will still be around 15p based on financial metrics and compared to peers. But we won't know this until the bod share all the necessary financials to make these calculations, which is some time away.

In the meantime the IIs will sell into any strength until they have deleveraged to an acceptable level for their books. Shame they don't have a 'lock-in' clause. If all the shares were placed with Canadian Teachers Pension Fund or something along those lines I'd be a lot happier as it would mean an income chasing II joining the roster, which are more long term in their outlook. But until we know the type of shark they have fed us to, we won't know how much of an 'over-hang' there will be. Some of these ****ers will offload their last 20% at a loss because they sold the previous 80% at a 15% gain. Good for PIs with spare cash and willing to wait 6 months as the IIs rinse their surplus holding. But even with all the extra shares, if they finalise Serenity and we're drilling in 6 months we'll be sitting at 20p when the drills start turning (rather than 25p) so the gain from 11-12p will be greater than the gain from 15p. Hopefully they announce Serenity in the next couple of weeks i.e. before the IIs get their extra shares. Again assuming the can't forward sell. Can't believe they didn't at least wait until Serenity was announced along with some Canadian drill results and raised at a higher price. They've essentially given away so much more of the company to their mates. Bod really are a bunch of c@nts to PIs!

Hi Tony, I've take the lower increase in NOI versus boepd increase to mean less oil i.e. less value being taken form the increase in production. Seems like a fair assumption to make.

Tony, as usual I'm in the same place. Overall a good deal. And there's at least 20% additional immediate value versus the raise capital when looking at NOI increase (the only financial measure provided) versus share count increase. As you've pointed out we should get a few synergies that mean conversion to fcf is better than 20%. I think this is why the market has placed us in the 12-13p range.

The issue of course will be when 350m odd shares are printed. The IIs will likely deleverage to a certain level, and take their 10% until we drop to near raise price. This will provide PIs the ability to pick up shares nearer 11p knowing there's good solid upside once the IIs have finished taking their 5-10% immediate cut from the raise. Thankfully we have a dividend policy, and quite significant NOI increase that I think will keep us above the raise price. I expect the rinse through to be quicker than the previous because there's a lot more financial 'knowns', and anyone who does their homework will know that 11p gives 50-75% upside over 6 months provided they complete Serenity and start a drilling campaign in earnest in Canada over this period. You are right in saying the shine will be take off Serenity and the Canadian results if they announce soon. But if you're picking up more shares near 11p you'll still get the same sort of increase on your investment. It's just the IIs will get the main benefits of the increase if they announce this month.

So overall a good deal, but the bod have really shafted PIs and rewarded their II mates this time round. Last tiem was about survival and a great deal, so forgivable. For once i was thinking they're doing a great job by PIs and then they do this. They very easily could have taken the time to go 50% or more debt funded and then placed with IIs. Even better would have been giving 10% allocation (of 50%) to PIs, with IIs being able to take up anything not allocated to PIs (this is fairly commonplace). Debt would be easily covered by NOI increase. Raise price would be higher (probably in the 12's), which would have meant far less dilution and the share price would be sitting at a further premium probably around the 14p mark. All with negligible debt load. But instead they've gone down the route that maximises benefit to IIs in the short term. And PIs have to sit and wait it out until they've taken their fill and sold onto us at a premium. Turns out the bod really are a bunch of c@nts to PIs.

In summary, if you have spare cash then 11-12p will be a great time to pick up shares post the extra 50% being printed. The same thing will happen as last time round - I bought the majority of my holding between 4-5p. As mentioned I don't think we'll drop below raise price this time (it did last time). And I think the rinse through will be quicker with Serenity being the main catalyst taking us through 15p once the IIs have deleveraged adequately. Bod really are a bunch of c@nts to their PIs.

Hi Hammerphil, isn't the formal link the actual transmission link? If memory serves me correctly nccl have commented on the transmission line project previously so cannot understand why we wouldn't comment on it again given it has now seemingly been awarded...?

CF, it's only excellent news after the tariff approval rns lands. In the meantime perhaps Hanno can finally announce the EPC contracts... Or a funding solution... He doesn't need to wait on EDM / Moz for these two things.

Hi Hammerphil, surely if you know the result Moz need to make some formal statement that L&T have won the tender? I'm also hoping that nccl tweet or publicise the result of this tender if indeed bidders have already been notified. Have to say I was hoping CMEC won the tender as it would show their complete commitment to the wider power project. I can only hope that everything has been completely above board i.e. Indian co. haven't bribed Moz officials for the tender. This would no doubt create a diplomatic / bureaucratic mess, which in turn could delay or halt our project. Why would CMEC want to deal with bureaucrats that have fraudulently awarded another key project to a competitor (and Indian no less)? This could be beneficial to our share price as it would indicate the necessary infrastructure directly related to our project is going ahead unabated. Or it could create a mess because some ret@rded African bureaucrats have taken cash for themselves and in turn caused the whole thing to implode. CMEC winning the tender would have been the best outcome.

Either way nccl need to look into what you've said and if bidders have been notified then a formal statement needs to be made immediately. I really hope you're wrong as I don't like hearing such things from informal channels. Only makes you think the whole thing has been run like a circus for a PI to know things via government back channels before the market is officially notified.

Hi PB, not sure about people offloading due to the divi. It's hardly worth it. The half yearly divi in the future could have an effect due to it being significantly larger, but even then wouldn't cause a sell-off. Just the market taking a breather after a hectic 1.5 weeks of gains. Even I traded 250k today because I expected a pull-back. I think there'll be quite a few people playing this game until the next major piece of news. Can't blame them. Let's hope we hold above 14p in the run-up to Canadian drill results and f/o so we can breach that 20p mark. Fair value versus peers is 16p-18p.

But in the next few weeks we do have some positive catalysts, with the divi payment, Canadian drill results, and potentially the farm-out. The Canadian drill results I'm expecting to be quite positive given the recent rns. But if they're +300bopd drills then it points to us having acquired some prolific acreage. And if you're generating those sorts of numbers with every drill then it doesn't take long, or much money, to add another 1000bopd. The f/o could be something of a game changer for the company depending on how good the deal happens to be. I'm thinking we'll re-rate to 20p almost instantly if we retain +30% and free carried for +3 drills. With some Canadian drilling success I can see us comfortably breaching 20p and staying there. And then looking to the +3 month horizon there's the half year divi in September, which will be substantial. I'd imagine quite a few more Canadian drill results. And hopefully preparation and countdown to Nth Sea drilling targeting up to 400m barrels (Brent). Not a difficult hold. AIMHO GLA

Looks like I should have waited another 20 minutes :(

Well that was quick. Just got my 250k back for 15.1p. Same number of shares but now £2300 wealthier (if you don't count how much I'm down today on the other 3.5m).

Interesting to see the direction for the next day or so if we don't get an rns. I've said previously I think we'll sit in the 15-16p range until we get the next decent piece of news. Maybe even drop below 15p for a little bit. Some good support at the moment though. I'm hoping we get the f/o agreement shortly before or straight after the ex-divi date. This way people sit and hold from this level and we should be able to post a 3-5p jump (my estimation on back of decent f/o deal) and really attack 20p.

Not going to lie fellas, I sold 250k yesterday for an average of 16.02p. Just a bit of fun given I believe the sp will take a short breath. Hoping to get back in for the low 15's and make a quick £2k. Completely f@cked up my timing as I could have gotten 16.25-16.30 average if I'd been a little more patient. Anyway hopefully we get the next big leg up soon , but after we briefly visit the low 15's :) GLA

Well said Chris. The overall benefit of this project far, far outweighs and negatives. Other than Biomass, which is the nastiest of all. Diesel is incredibly dirty and limited in output. Gas has lower emissions, but not hugely versus new tech coal, and needs resource source nearby (not an option in Tete region). Nuclear isn't an option for the developing world (and certainly shouldn't be provided for Africa at this juncture). Hydro requires huge water flow (natural barrier to entry), which is unreliable in drought, and has a quite large environmental footprint with damming of rivers. The only real viable options available to the region are coal and solar. Both I believe are the answer to fast economic development in Africa given they have vast resources of coal and huge hours of sunshine. But as anyone knows, it's difficult and costly to build 300Mw of solar derived energy and the associated battery technology to support it. And it's still unreliable. Can't really see any other viable option for large scale development, especially when you take into account the net positive it creates from an emission standpoint by replacing current biomass & diesel sources. GLA