Member Info for G_G_G

Really odd trades. Not sure what's happening there. Really disappointed that we still have no news as well. Into August now an the last time the main project was even referenced was 1.5 months ago with EPC contract almost ready. Hopefully something positive and substantial this week. GLA

I think they have to Lancaster. I mean we're due to run out of money in a month so that in itself warrants an update very soon. But it's been far too long since any reference to the main project, be it EPC, early works program, development program, tariff approval... Completely bonkers we're in this place and waiting on an update.

Agree it has become quite ridiculous Gary. Fine for timings to slip if you're giving regular updates to your shareholder base and providing sound reasoning as to why things are months / quarters overdue. But I'm truly amazed the bod think it's ok to leave their shareholders in the dark for so long with absolutely no clarity on any number of milestones for the main project that are 6 months and more delayed. This doesn't even take into account the funding concern, which is becoming more of a concern with every week that drifts past. And then there's the solar project, which is shrouded in mystery. I can only hope that Hanno and SF know we are within touching distance of the prize and our frustrations will soon be rescued by the rubber stamp of the tariff in the coming days. But even then, they should have been regularly communicating positive statements to the market that all is on track. The share price for a company like this should never jump by 200-300% as it suggests things are completely unexpected and unknown to the market. This is a project with many milestones that have been chipped away at over many years, not some micro cap drilling a high impact wild cat well that's just hit 100m barrels of oil. They need to give us something, and soon. Our mcap is the lowest it has ever been, which is crazy to think. All in all it has been a very poor way to manage shareholder expectations, which is clearly reflected in the share price. But maybe next week, it's only August after all...

Thanks Jezzoo, it will mean I don't have to respond to your brilliantly insightful posts. Now if only Lobotomy would do the same.

Austin, agreed but to be fair we do tend to share some valuable learning and experience. As much as Tony and I are disagreeing on this occasion I do value the data and spreadsheets he produces (and that I now sometimes ridicule). Fwiw we're normally in agreement with one another, but the last time we had this sparring match was over the exact same thing, which by the looks of things is playing out in the exact same way. There's a lot that can be picked up from these disagreements, and one can make quite a but of money if they understand the situation and play their cards well (imo).

As I said Tony people will believe what they want to believe. It's just some people are better at spotting bull****@artists, and less likely to believe everything. In my career the amount of bull**** that I've seen fed to the market and employees by senior mgt is extraordinary. It's about telling the market what you want them to believe, and nothing else. Either way you're free to go on believing there was no way they could access debt. It's just that I won't be joining you in that fantasy.

Anyway let's try something else, I've asked this before Tony and you side-stepped it as usual. Do you think they can access more debt now? I've seen in your previous posts talk of them now being able to take on debt for exploration and production etc, which I ridiculed as they should take on debt for the first acquisition and print shares for the next (less shares being printed). And they should take on debt for known production, and not exploration (less risky). And they should increase their hedge on the new production (even less risky).

Regardless, let's say they have another $50m acquisition on the same metrics available. Are you going to keep saying debt isn't (and was never) an option? The market simply wouldn't give such debt to a producer with £25m debt, and future 30kboepd production, +$120m NOI and 200mboe reserves. Just how much production, NOI, 2P reserves do you think they need Tony to get access to $50m debt? And what will you think if they print another 300m shares at say 15p and hand them to IIs instead for this acquisition?

I'm interested to know as I think they're going to do it again in 6-12 months and most likely in the Nth Sea this time to pick up those easy options.

Doorstop, a few big differences, firstly the eps and dps would be higher if they debt funded. And secondly, there wouldn't be much (if any) 'short-term pain' for the same 'long term gain'. Pretty simple to spot the difference between debt funding versus share printing. The bod didn't do it though, and I doubt they even tried. You are however correct in saying we'll never know the truth of the matter.

As for debt being hard to come by, I find the whole thing preposterous. It's like an individual being given £25k debt when they had no income or assets. Suddenly they have £75k income (equivalent of our NOI) with +£1m assets (equivalent of our 2P Reserves), and they're looking to take out another loan of £20-40k on the back of their current income and assets, plus another £75k income and +£1m assets guaranteed from the additional loan. And people on here are trying to tell me the same bank that gave them £25k when they had nothing is going to say no? Or any other bank for that matter? When banks are handing out bigger loans to people earning less with more debt...?

Ultimately people will believe what they want to believe. It's only human. It's just some people are better at spotting bull****@artists, and less likely to believe everything.

I think Rajbury is making light of the apostrophe usage in the word 'ego' :)

Sorry who has debunked my debt assertions? You? Or the bod saying they couldn't access debt? What do you think they're going to say Tony, yes we could have gone down the debt route but we preferred to give the IIs 360m cheap shares (again), so they now own even more of the company, and so they can then trade all their excess shares for a fast return profit. But in the end they will still hold more ownership of the company. And the IIs will also agree with any resolutions we put in front of them to continue looking after themselves and us before PIs. This means our +£500k salaries and tens of millions of options PER YEAR are safe.

Now try to get your head around this Tony, maybe you can use a spreadsheet or pizza to help:

- Same deal, so same financial returns. Except we debt fund half. So we now have debt of £45m (versus +$80m NOI), so amply covered and hardly leveraged, except we have 180m less shares in issue. What happens to the share price Tony? You still get all the benefits of the deal remember, just 180m less shares in issue. And how fast will the share price rise Tony?

- Now repeat this exercise with a higher debt ratio.

It's like you've never seen a company wisely utilize debt before. When debt is paid off by acquisition economics in a flash you should use it. And guess what, the underlying value of the company not only goes up, so does the share price because there's less shares in issue. Tell you what, let's see what happens in the coming months. And let's see how my 'risky trading strategy' works out. Just remember one thing's for certain Tony, I can't lose with my strategy.

Tony, you really need to read my posts. You've consistently misrepresented what I've said. And consistently avoided any questions posed back to you.

1. I've explained this before, try to wrap your head around it. So again, PIs are creating the share price movements at the moment. And PIs will create any share price increases in the near future. But for that to happen they have to be willing to buy excess shares off IIs for a premium. Until the bod give plenty of reasons to keep buying above the 11p profit making mark for IIs, the increase will be slow. PIs selling now will be doing so because they need money for bills, or for summer holidays, or because they see another opportunity they believe will pay off quickly and recognize we'll be down here for a while. So now you have PIs slowly selling for a variety of reasons and not enough buying the shares being sold. You getting it?

2. Wtf, are you serious? Re-read my posts. Go from way back. As for things not making sense, how's the share price behaving? Like I said it would? Remember last time Tony when the same thing happened - Who was right then? The fact you haven't learnt from last time simply says you've got blinkers on. Now go on, tell us what your spreadsheet says about the underlying value of this deal, then explain why the share price is staying down here? I'll give you a hint - look back at my posts and the answers are there for you.

3. Same can be said of you Tony, except you take the bull**** from the bod and then dress it in horse****. Simple facts of the matter are debt is freely available in the US, Canada and the UK. And the same IIs they gave free shares to last time, and 11p shares to this time, are the ones that gave them debt for EXPLORATION in a higher interest rate environment. Not profitable production. Read a little more widely and you'll find a lot of articles talking about Nth American O&G debt being renegotiated for highly leveraged plays, alongside t/o's involving debt (also with highly leveraged companies).

4. How can they lose money if they trade a spike genius? So how is it risky? That's the whole point, you can't lose money. You make money, and you bet that IIs will do the same and the sp will drop back to re-purchase. I'll say it again for you Tony, my strategy is to overload on shares here then trade the spikes. If I can get to 5m shares (now just over 4m) I'll take 1-1.5m shares and trade into things like the f/o agreement. If it spikes to say 15p (unlikely) I'll drop 1.5m shares into the spike and bet on it falling back to 12-13p channel. I'll then re-purchase another 1.75m shares, gaining at least 250k shares. But lets say it goes to 17p and doesn't drop back, well I still will have made 40% on the excess shares I've purchased and still hold 3.5m shares for further capital appreciation over time plus divis. Not risky, a f@cking monkey could execute this and not lose money.

'Does the selling make sense to anyone ??' Does told you so answer the question?

People really need to stop posting 'look how under-valued we are on metrics' and start looking unemotionally at the reality of our situation. The bod created the current situation when they gave 360m shares to their II mates. They happen to be the same II mates who got free shares (and 5p shares) last time. Plus the bod got free shares as well. And easy options. Last time we broke below placing price. And we were grossly undervalued for over 6 months (until the recent raise). And we were traded by the IIs all the way until they were commandeered for the most recent hand-out, which is why we moved so quickly in the end as they stopped selling to take advantage of this 360m hand-out. So our situation is similar, and why I've been saying 'Groundhog Day'.

Now common sense says we will move closer to full value quicker this time. But because the bod have been treating PIs money in this way it may take longer than you all think for us to break 15p, let alone fair value in the low 20's. Yes we're grossly under-valued (just like last time). And yes there's a lot less shares. But the obvious disregard for PI money means it will be warily invested here. More PI trading money will enter because they know they're buying from IIs who are dropping their excess shares for modest profits. Bottom line, we will struggle to break 12p because IIs will be selling up to 50m excess shares (my estimate) and PIs like myself will be trying to copy their profiteering.

This will happen until we start getting significant news that can create a re-rate that sticks. Drilling success of 100-200boepd may take us above 12p for a short period of time. And the f/o will no doubt add a few pennies, but both types of news are likely to see us lose a lot of those gains as IIs offload and PIs trade. The only thing that will create a step-up that holds will be half yearly results that demonstrate the significant value attained by the recent acquisition, accompanied by a big dividend payment (alongside the hundreds boepd added in production and f/o). This is when I see us breaking 15p. By the time we start drilling the f/o I'd expect the over-hang to have cleared and stickier hands holding the excess II shares versus traders and be in the 20's. But that could be up to 12 months from now. And spikes will still occur the whole way up.

Simple way forward for the near future is to buy excess shares down here then trade the spikes on news. I bought below placing last time, except I didn't trade my excess shares. It will be different this time, and yes that will mean my 1-1.5m share trading pot will probably accelerate the lurch back on news when the IIs are doing it as well. But hopefully I can secure another 250k shares for nothing if I play it well. Have a problem with this, then speak to the bod. They created the rules of the game to suit them and IIs, so my advice is to play the game like an II.

I think everyone is sitting back and waiting to see whether Hanno can deliver some actual news. Tiny trades pulling us up and down by 10%. No new investors willing to invest, and most holders having waited so long and under-water by so much, they can't be bothered trying to sell to a market that isn't interested. I mean just 1m shares would likely take us to 2p.

The fact the market knows an update is well overdue and to be expected in the next week or so, and our MCAP is at an all-time low, says everything one needs to know about the way things have been, and are being handled. I cant even confidently say 'good entry point for new investors' because the simple reality is we don't have any idea about anything at the moment. There's the opaque solar arm of the business, which I challenge anyone on here to explain what is going on in that area, be it financing, project economics, company structure and ownership... f'ing anything. Then we have what everyone on here invested in over the years, which although we're meant to be nearing the biggest milestone to date, all we're getting from Hanno is broken timelines and 'discussions are on-going and sensitive in nature'. Let's not even mention EPC & O&M contracts, or the early works program. Then we have our funding concern. We're meant to run out of cash in September ffs and still nothing on this front. I mean where does one start and end with how things are being managed. The entire company has been sucked into a vortex of vagueness. We've all been very patient as milestones have slipped by the week, month, quarter, half year, and year. We've all been very patient as money has gone into a solar arm of the business that we still know very little about. It's time now for Hanno and SF to tell us wtf is happening with the company and our money. To say they owe it to us is a monumental understatement.

Thanks hammerphil. Good to see some 'official' progress being made on the interconnector line. Not sure why nccl aren't tweeting about this news? They've spoken about the interconnector line in the past so there's nothing wrong with them doing so again. But more importantly it's directly related to our project. Why not at least post a tweet speaking of how good it is to see the Moz government showing further commitment to their 'energy for all' program...?

Either way I'm expecting an update by the end of this week or Monday next week given another month will have gone by. The company cannot be this far overdue on news and not update investors on progress. The end of this month means the EPC contract is 1.5 months beyond when it was 'near final form', and well beyond 6 months overdue on original timings. And the tariff will be 6 months overdue. Ridiculous to think we haven't even received any formal feedback on this milestone when approval was expected 6 months ago. GLA

Tree shake before the SP goes BOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Tony, I've never disagreed with the numbers. I've also always maintained the deal from an underlying value perspective was very good. But they way they paid for the additional production and reserves means it's going to be some time before we reach fair value. So our sp will be far lower than fair value for some time. It's not hard to see, but for those struggling they can look back over the coming months and see if I'm proven correct as we crawl and occasionally lurch forward, only to be pulled back. After all us lths have been through this before. As for the dividend, what difference does it make getting a slightly better yield per share (but not for the first 6 month dividend), when the company is trading far lower than underlying value. Here's an example of how printing shares for production can be poor for sp appreciation - The company print the next 360m shares @ 15p for 10kboepd. What happens? We'll have more than tripled our production but our sp will end be closer to 15p for another 6 months. So we'll have more than tripled production in 12-18 months for 50% sp appreciation. Can't say I'm happy with that outcome when other options would have yielded better sp appreciation. Not a problem for the IIs as they gain more ownership and bigger dividends while they the await sp appreciation. And not a problem for the bod who keep awarding themselves millions (perhaps even tens of millions) of shares whilst they take +£500k salaries. Hard to lose here, especially at 11p, but could be a while before we really win.

It makes no difference what mini bump you were referring to Tony if you understand the consequences of handing 360m shares @ 11p to IIs. As for the meeting. What is there to comment on exactly? The IIs had control of the company, and the bod have given them even more control. So any resolutions the bod ask for will be agreed. Especially given these resolutions solely look after the interests of the IIs (with more shares no doubt to be printed and handed to them), and the bod (with more options to be provided for exchanging these shares for increased production). So discussing the outcome of this meeting, and the next, and the one following is a pointless exercise. The resolutions simply reinforce the company will continue to be ceded to IIs through the printing of shares, which will further increase bod options (substantial by any stretch), and PIs will continue to own less of the company than they did before. Hasiba used your pizza analogy quite well - the pizza may be bigger, but we now own less of it. And as much as the pizza being worth more, what difference does it make if you can buy it at a discount. So people on here have two options, sit and wait for the share price to very slowly approach the value that you have in your spreadsheets. Or accumulate (for more ownership of the discounted pizza) and then selling some slices when the price increases (knowing the price will drop back as more pizza hits the market). No response on my email yet.

Would be nice to get some wouldn't it. Too much to ask after months of waiting with nothing other than a few anchorless tweets on coal fired energy from nccl? Maybe this week (he says yet again).

The run up and drop to the share price isn't puzzling Tony, it's what I've been saying will happen for some time now in the absence of significant news. Simple profit taking for an easy 3-5%. The share price will be anchored to the 11's for sometime. And all the talk of how 'undervalued' we happen to be on a variety of metrics means f'all when you have 360m shares to churn. My estimate is 50-100m excess shares will be churned by the IIs, many of which they'll sell and buy-back a few times over. I won't at all be surprised to see the f/o take us to 15p before the IIs drop us down to 12p and then buy on the way back up. So it will be months before we break 15p. No point blaming the IIs. The bod gave them ownership of the company and its share price. We're now at their mercy. Only thing to do now is take one's excess shares and do the same.

I think most PIs are waiting on the next bit of news. Given we're struggling to hold 2.5p they really need to give us something positive. The good thing is we're still priced to fail so the upside from here is far greater than any downside. Let's hope they deliver what we've been waiting on next week.

Hi HoopedBaron, that's what I see when I have my rose tinted glasses on as well :) It's one of the reasons why I still hold, although I have dropped down to 2.5m shares now.

'So between EDM, CMEC and NCCL, could there be an agreed delay in any official announcement to allow the CMEC / NCCL deal to be thrashed out and present the MOZ government and CMEC a much tidier setup going forward... its all now about deals and political maneuvering in my opinion.'

Not sure I'd go so far. If I were to guess I'd say the delays are down to everything now being on 'African time', and NCCL & CMEC have decided not to progress their milestones until EDM & Moz pull their fingers out. I do believe that once the tariff and development timetable are released things will move a lot quicker. As mentioned, let's hope we finally get the news we've been waiting on for years. We're so low we'll get a 3 figure jump if the tariff gets approved.

I think that's what some PIs are doing Gary - positioning themselves for news. As per my last post I do believe Hanno has to update the market on main project progress before the end of July. Otherwise another month will have elapsed without any news except for a few tweets about coal fired energy that weren't even linked to our project. It would be different if they used the tweets to remind and reinforce to shareholders the main project is still in play, and they're happy with progress and confident of a successful outcome. But the tweets haven't done this. Neither did the company presentation link. It was good of Hanno to express main project positivity in his last interview with Proactive in mid-June. I was starting to get very annoyed with the lapsed timelines as were other PIs. His last interview made me less concerned about my investment and I think he needs to do this again, but hopefully this time with some positive progress. Many things are well overdue and it only takes one of them to completely shift market sentiment. The tariff is obviously the big one. But a vote of confidence in the project by mgt sorting the funding concern though options / warrants as they've done before, or signed EPC contracts, will also reignite interest in the company. As I've said before all 3 pieces of news and I can see us sitting closer to 10p, which is a long way considering we're pretty close to 2p now. Either way I'm expecting something from Hanno on the main project. Let's all hope it's the news we've been waiting on for years.