Member Info for G_G_G

DOPW, I think the only way we'll see 35p in 6 months is if the f/o is completed, and we strike / prove up +50m recoverable barrels end-Q1. Without the f/o and Nth Sea exploration success then I'd say 20-25p in 6 months. The upper estimate depends on Canadian drilling success taking our production comfortably through 20kboepd and oil heavy gains (assuming poo and gas remain at current levels). Still a very good result plus you're likely to get a 0.5p dividend (fully diluted). The f/o IMO is the catalyst to get us through 15p (and stay there) and will magnify any Canadian success as we move toward the drilling phase (hopefully end Q1 2022). If we can secure it on decent terms then by the time we're drilling end Q1 I believe the sp will be mid 20's regardless of whether Canada is adding incremental barrels of oil. All of this ignores any more Covid induced issues (we're entering Winter), or the bod doing another deal that hugely dilutes shareholders (and provides them with a lot more options). I took from the investor call they recognize the need for debt moving forward so any future deal I would hope involves a decent proportion of debt and if so it will act as catalyst for the share price, rather than an anchor (like now). AIMHO

Agree with most of what you've said Tony. The 'down here for a while' comment was to remind people of the mega anchor provided by the raise, and of course the +100m options / warrants still in issue that have recently popped up to give the sp another kick in the teeth. Some of the less patient folk on here, plus a few of the very optimistic, were calling 20p by the end of this month. I'm going to stick with my projection of us breaking and staying above 15p at the end of the year. Oil and gas companies that are flying don't necessarily have stronger fundamentals, but they equally don't have so many shares issued at 11p and confetti warrants / options to go with them, many priced at 0p.

To be honest ftse I think there's a lot of things that would need to happen, such as copper prices staying very high, proven production efficiency, Little Deer partner, some more outstanding drill results, and further investment to increase production beyond the 1350tpd, if they're to get to those levels. All of these things will take a couple of years, and of course depend on a supportive copper price. I prefer to look at the possible near future scenario, which is far easier to predict providing all things go according to plan and copper doesn't crater in the next 6 months. For me 60p is the upside by end Q2 2022 with everything coming together. Having said this we've still got Covid to contend with (and winter is coming), and an even scarier scenario for most 'building' commodities is a full blown Chinese recession, which is looking like a distinct possibility and could last for years. Copper is a commodity that won't fare well in this scenario. AIMHO

a few people selling now they have their divi payment secured for the end of the month. I was thinking 14p was a hard nut to crack, and wasn't thinking we'd ever re-visit the 12's. Turns out the mega raise and all the confetti warrants / options provide quite a big anchor to this company. Mgt need to deliver some news, be it some PR, drill results, or the f/o, which has become something of a joke. Without some positive news we could be down here for some time to come. GLA

Yes now would be good regulator.

My views fwiw:
- Financing is the next key milestone. This unlocks full production (and therefore future profitability). I expect it to complete this month. Some additional dilution may occur in the meantime.
- Hitting and maintaining full production guidance. I expect this to be achieved in Q4, most likely December, providing financing is completed in October.
- Clearing hedge. This should happen in Q4 providing above milestone are achieved, most likely December.
- Profitability. I expect even with some inefficiencies they should be profitable in Q1 if copper remains at this level, and the above milestones are achieved. I don't expect them to be wildly profitable, but full production and the hedge being cleared should provide plenty of breathing space to ensure profitability.

From what the company has said recently one would hope the above happens, or is very close to happening in the timeframes they have provided. The finance as they have pointed out is largely out of their control. However the production is fully in their control and leads to higher production, clearing the hedge earlier, and profitability in Q1. They need to ensure they manage what's in their control.

Upside:
- Exploration. Many seem to forget there's still drill results that will land in the coming months. The last results were pretty outstanding, so if they can open up more tonnes at these grades it simply de-risks the company further.
- Partner Little Deer complex.

If they can achieve all of the above and copper remains within 10% of current levels then I expect the company to be pushing 12 months highs in Q2 2022. The way I se it the finance, clearing the hedge, reaching full production, and strong drill results are all guaranteed. It's just the partner element that I see as being unlikely. From there it's about pushing up production, driving down AISC, and opening up more ore to mitigate production risks. Disclosure; I have 200k shares and my target is at least 300k shares. GLA

Speaking from recent experience Ron they're both equally annoying and combine to be incredibly annoying when you consider the money in the losing position could have been invested into the winning position, so your pf ends up being twice as far away from where it could have been. Had I not gone with a substantial 'binary bet' recently I wouldn't have lost 60k, but would have made circa £50k in any of my other investments. So my pf is £110k from where it could have been had I not been so stupid and amateurish. It's the sort of thing someone does when they're starting out investing where inexperience combined with impatience means you're not learning and going to lose in the long run. Never again (he says).

Agree all good, but only when the finance is sorted. It really is the key milestone that unlocks all others. Hopefully not long now.

Nice problem to have wrt to receiving a 2p or 1.5p dividend for the next 12 months. The big unknowns are obviously oil and gas prices. Having said this they're going parabolic and even the worst case scenario still looks very good and probably only -10% from here. The other biggie is whether they can get our production to +20kboepd. It doesn't feel as though they're really pushing for growth at the drill bit, but one could conceivably expect us to average more than 20k given recent work-overs and even the lower end of expectations with some of the drill results. Not sure why they're not putting more holes in the ground around the Noel well given where gas prices are likely to be sitting over the next 6 months.

Tony, where do you put us on forward 12 months revenues, fcf etc. with regard to multiples versus peers?

I do think the finance deal will give a boost to the sp (mid to high 20's), although I don't think it's going to take us into the 30's until we know a bit more about production levels and the hedge completion. If they confirm they're running at full capacity, plus the hedge will def. be finalized in Q4 then I can see us moving through 30p in the next 6 weeks. It do think we'll get the 50% re-rate in the next 3 months, it's just a matter of whether it's November or January. That's a huge amount of time in the eyes of a trader (or someone impatient like me). I also think the bod are first rate. Not often you get a team like this in such a small company. At full production for 6 months, hedge cleared, copper prices holding, and Covid being mitigated, then I do see us back at 60p by mid next year. They've already confirmed they have opened up enough ore to run at full capacity for 70% of next year so providing copper stays buoyant I don't see why this isn't possible. Throw in some good drilling results, a partner at Little Deer complex, and it's a very easy triple your money opportunity. Let's hope they get this financing sorted in the next couple of weeks so they can get on with the job. GLA

My god the guys on this Sunday Roast podcast sound like a bunch of alcoholic gamblers. TB must have finished this interview shaking his head and vowing to never go on it again. Absolute jokers.

Can you guys provide a link?

toptuf, it hasn't helped at all because it was late, there was no explanation of sorts, they introduced an unknown third party, and the icing on the cake is they haven't provided any additional guidance. Coupled with late interims, and a track record of surprising the market with bad news, one can see why there has been a sell-off. Great asset. Great potential. But on appearance the company is being run by a bunch of bunglers who don't understand the most basic rules of engaging with the market. Schoolboy stuff.

afb, on recent mgt performance there's a very real chance you won't have a clearer picture from the H1 report :) Let' hope they can get that one right.

Weird thing that I've noted about small caps is the market will often value a company near round numbers when given little else to go on e.g. £20, £25, £30M mcap. This company has dropped to £25m on a few occasions, and is again at this level. Given there is no support, if this breaks then I expect it could visit £20m, which happens to be around the 15-16p range. Anything beyond that number would be pretty bonkers, even if the market knows nothing about what's happening other than delays and the fact mgt are a bunch of amateurs. I expect £25m mcap to hold, and if it visits the 15-16p range to be bought into heavily. I for one will take the opportunity to average down if it happens. Market hates uncertainty, which is all mgt have provided recently. Hopefully they will get their act together soon. GLA

Oiltap, I agree with a lot of what you've said about potential in this company, but the fact remains that mgt are showing themselves to be amateurs on this occasion (and others), and the sp is being punished as a result. To provide finance guidance that is missed, to then miss the new guidance (delayed by 1 month), to then update the market after the generous self-imposed deadline has lapsed stating new information about a third party, and not providing any new guidance on when the financing will be complete, is straight up amateur.

The market doesn't like delays. It doesn't like delays to delays. It doesn't like to be updated after the fact. And it doesn't like to be given no further guidance. A teenager could have done better than these guys. Now the market has no idea when the finance will complete. Has no idea how this has impacted production guidance. Has no idea whether the credit card (and further dilution) will be necessary. But does know the interims have been delayed, but no idea when they will be provided in the coming month. What they should have done:

- Provide update of further finance delays PLUS reasoning a week or more ago i.e. when they knew the delayed deadline wouldn't be met.
- Provide new finance guidance i.e. when they WILL deliver the finance agreement and whether the credit card will be used.
- Provide a date for the interims i.e. not a before October 31st statement.
- Provide latest production guidance i.e. that everything else is on-track (or not).

The mgt team APPEAR to have little grasp of things based on what they have, and haven't been providing to the market. And we all know appearances are everything when it comes to the market. One can see how the market on current and past behavior (appearance) sees the finance not being sorted for weeks or more, interims being taken to the wire, and ****house production numbers being provided whilst using COVID + delayed financing as the reasons why they're giving the market more bad news (late).

Quite appalling mgt when a company was already near all-time lows. Little wonder the sp is where it is.

Agree with Oiltap comments. I also don't expect the sp to weaken on this rns. It may even go up. Intercreditor agreements are pretty standard stuff. Main take-out for me is the wording suggests the finance is a done deal. Timings who knows.

Having said this the mgt team need to look at themselves and get their act together. Delays happen. But there is no reason for this rns to have been delayed. It speaks volumes of a mgt team when they know a timeline is going to be missed and wait until after it has passed to deliver an update that provides no clear guidance for when the milestone will be completed. I'd rather they said a week ago it's delayed and expected to close by 'mid October'. It gives confidence in their mgt capabilities i.e. they know what's going on, and are willing to give guidance as to what comes next. It also speak volumes about their character i.e. they own something immediately and will make a new commitment they're going to work towards. So good news and disappointing at the same time. They need to develop a backbone between now and the results, as this behaviour really is not one of a first rate, trustworthy mgt team. We wait. GLA

Imagine there will be a few nervous people if we still haven't heard anything by tomorrow 3pm with the dreaded 'late Friday rns' coming into play. Seriously blows my mind that senior mgt in listed companies still do such things, or worse still think it's ok to say nothing, which is plain gutless. In my books they've got today to say 'delayed until XX', or they have until Monday to announce the finance being sorted. Anything outside of this and mgt will have dropped in my assessment of their competence and qualities. Delays happen. But there's no excuse for delayed updates, especially if bearing bad news.

Fwiw I do think the finance will be completed. The big question is when, and what will need to be done in the meantime. An even bigger question once the finance is completed is where things stand operationally. So a few big questions that need to be answered. Once finance is wrapped up, and an ops update is provided saying all is still on track, then I expect the sp to be +30p in very short order. GLA

Mgt should always provide an expectation of when significant milestones will be delivered. This is simply good mgt. However they should also be acutely aware of those timings and issue an update once they believe they cannot meet them. If they fail to do this then they're failing their shareholders, and failing to do their job. Canada isn't open yet, so there's a chance they will provide confirmation of finance closing, or a further delay, in a few hours. If the latter then it's shoddy unless they're expecting it to close in the next day or so. Anything longer is poor mgt, and they need to take a good hard look at themselves whilst providing another timeline that will have to be met (alongside all other guidance that has been provided). At the moment it's looking like they're going to miss the current self-imposed deadline. By how much is the question. Let's not even contemplate the finance deal falling over.