Member Info for G_G_G

F'cking Riverfort and CLNs. For a little while I forgot about those guys. Well that extra $200k at 16p has certainly taken the shine off things. Not a lot, but enough.

I haven't seen it in any rns but do they have a limit on how many they can convert in a particular time frame? If they can only convert every 2 weeks for instance then it will mean there's a limit to how many they can convert in the next 4-6 weeks, and they would surely have delivered the finance by then. At most the remaining value of the CLNs is 5% of Mcap. So yes an anchor, but not a big one. The cynic in me wonders whether the delays are there to help these pr!cks get their CLNs away at ridiculously low prices.

Monkey, you're right that we may have a little more weakness until the finance lands. Having said this I do believe any re-visit to the teens will be quickly bought into so cannot see the sp dropping to previous lows. I'd be happy to pick up another 200-300k shares if we're back in the teens to get my average down a bit more. The good thing about these guys converting is they will provide one last window for buying in the 18-22p range before the finance lands and other good news takes us into the 30's.

I also cannot see how the hedge won't be cleared. The recent bridging loan means they can continue with their remediation plans at pace. This in turn means there will definitely another stope opened in a few weeks. And as Cornish has pointed out there's a lot of high grade ore that is now being mined from the current stope. They provided guidance on the hedge previously, and again just last week, so I full expect it to happen. So no point throwing out opinions when they have put it in black and white twice, alongside other good news. And weakness will come from Riverfort. Although I think their plan will be to convert as many shares as possible and sell into rises i.e. not while we're down here.

I still believe we'll be in the 30's by Xmas. AIMHO GLA

Moon, out of interest has anyone ever taken your 'finical advise'?

I'm still laughing at that description Monkey.

Thanks Leathal. Yes i3e is a very good O&G stock that is quite under-valued on all metrics. As you probably know I've got quite a big holding so obviously biased toward the +ve, although the mega-placing is still being churned on the way up. The well overdue f/o will create the re-rate it deserves imo. I'm not in PTAL but starting to look into it as another under-valued oil play so may be worth taking a look there as well if you want exposure to the current energy bull run. Single jurisdiction that isn't as safe as Canada and the Nth Sea, but producing a lot of oil now.

Moon, have you ever seen a professional about your split personality...? You never seem to know whether you're +ve or -ve. Seems like Mr -ve is winning today by the looks of things.

Fair enough Monkey. Can't see why you're so negative on your investment, but each to their own. Fwiw, the finance being sorted in November (you've mentioned as a negative) is just 3 weeks away, and it doesn't matter if it takes 1, 2 or 3 weeks as this rns shows it's going to be sorted, and soon. So not a reason for a sustained drop. Shorters...? Not a chance and quite simply doesn't happen on volatile small caps. Shorters tend to be a little more sophisticated than the average PI and know this is the kind of stock where you can get burned very easily given the number of things that can send the sp either way. People just like to say 'shorters' to explain a sp drop. Along with 'MM manipulation' and pointing out 'X buys v Y sells' in a given day means they must be manipulating. All that has happened is the Buy / Sell print doesn't correspond with what happened. Not manipulation. The simple reason why a sp rises and falls is people or IIs buying and selling. The greater momentum in one direction wins. There have been plenty of reasons for PIs to sell recently, and they're about to get plenty of reasons to buy from now. But people are free to believe what they want to believe, but you're yet to convince me of the sp going backwards for those reasons. Unless you can show me on shorttracker or elsewhere of the shorting going on...?

Are you invested here Monkey?

Monkey, I'm endorsing DJ's millions, which is what people were questioning / mocking. I don't personally know DJ so cannot endorse him as a person, but then again neither do you.

Of course spikes get sold into Monkey so it may drop before the next leg up, which will happen for all the reasons I outlined in my last post. Those reasons are dead certainties now, it's just a matter of when they will land. The Xmas timing is the latest they're all likely to be announced. Would you like to provide some reasoning for your pessimism?

Also, anyone mocking DJ and his millions obviously don't know him from here, or other boards like HUM or HZM. He tends to be pretty good with junior resource stocks and has made millions from them, so I for one often keep an eye on what he's invested in. For instance it's how I came across Rambler. GLA

The sp will continue to rise from here. Anyone who cannot see that is fine to sell as it will be quickly bought into before the next leg up. The bridging loan signals the finance will complete. The size of it also signals this will happen in the next couple of weeks. From here I'm expecting the sp to consolidate in the mid 20's before the finance steps us closer to 30p. Some production guidance that says we'll be profitable in Q1, alongside confirmation the hedge has been cleared and 4 stopes opened in December, plus some MORE great drill results and we'll be mid to high 30's by Christmas. Don;t forget the traditional Santa rally as well. The finance and all other pieces of news are pretty much certainties based on guidance and drill results recently provided, so there's still at least 50% on offer over the next 8 weeks from this level. Easy money. AIMHO GLA

Highly doubt one of the funds will make a move for i3e. That's not to say that another O&G player won't. We are under-valued and quite a tasty target right now. Having said this I'd expect any t/o to come from a Nth American player given the level of knowledge and experience required to manage and advance our Canadian assets. The f/o would simply make i3e a far more attractive player. It would open up another market with it all being oil (Brent no less).

As for why we can't break free, well the answer has and always will be the churn of +350m shares. I hope mgt recognize that for any more money, be it for another transaction or drilling, they need to go down the debt route. I get the feeling they're going to need to stump up $25-35m if they want to get a 3-4 drill program executed in the Nth Sea post f/o. This is working off the last statement Majid made on the matter where he spoke of remaining operator (say 50%) and getting a free-carry on a single well. Alternatively they could pay for it out of fcf. But if they go down another raise for this when they've had a huge amount of time to arrange debt then I'll be out. It will confirm my worst fears of mgt i.e. they don't give two ****s about PI interests and wealth generation. Feel free to disagree but it's easy to see the effects of mega-dilution, even when the assets are strong - The sp is anchored for months and the climb is slow, rather than an immediate re-rate coupled with the same climb. I know what I'd prefer to happen. Either way the future looks very good from this level over the next 6 months if they can get the f/o finally signed and drilling started early Q2. Patience is the order of the day. AIMHO GLA

I think most people are expecting the loan to land in the next 2 weeks, me included, so positions are being taken. Once complete it effectively de-risks the project, and I expect us back in the high 20's in very short order. Mid 17's are the new base unless the financing falls over, which is unlikely. So 5% downside, and 50% upside from here. Back to 20-22p by end of week. AIMHO

Agreed jamrock. I think the bottom is in now and won't be surprised if we move back up to 20p. Other than the delay to financing and its potential impact on production and end of year guidance, all other news has been positive. The delay to the finance, although disappointing, I don't see materially changing all other guidance provided to date unless it drags into November. This would require the credit card to be used again, although another $2m isn't enough to cause a CLN 'death spiral', and there's plenty of catalysts to send the sp higher in the meantime, such as 4 stopes being opened in the next 8 weeks, excellent drilling results (reported and to come), and the hedge being cleared. I just don't see any more downside to this company unless the financing drags into November, and even then I think it will be limited. The financing will close. And the company will be de-risked from all angles. It's just a matter of how long. Expecting a quick re-rate to +25p on finance news, and +30p when 4 stopes plus hedge being cleared is confirmed (alongside some new drill results). Easy +50% in the next 3 months once the financing is sorted given everything else follows.

Uncertainty is the issue here, which solely revolves around the finance. Hedge will be cleared in the next 2 months. Solid assays in-bound in the coming weeks (previous were very good). And they will have 4 stopes opened in December. All confirmed major de-risking elements for the mine. So it's really just the finance being sorted, and how long it will take before they're mining profitably. Fwiw I think if the finance is sorted this month they'll definitely be profitable in Q1, just a matter of when. They may however need to draw down on the credit card in the meantime. So finance is and should be the focus, as they've clearly stated.

I'd be keen to understand what Doc is saying if people have links to his most recent opinions. Got to hand it to the man, he has some sway over the TSX and even here. Yes his research is solid, but does lean quite heavily toward the 'rampy' side. I'm sure he does very well out of this, and those that follow fast in his footsteps also do well (although less well than Doc). Good luck and well done to the man.

It's also interesting to read that he's now saying what I've been saying for a while regarding dilution. Imo there has been unnecessary (imo) dilution, and they've also looked after themselves (alongside the IIs) in choosing the route of a mega raise. It appears Doc has pointed out the same thing - the company will do well, but not as well as he originally projected because of the dilution that has taken place. So this one is going to require patience to slowly creep to 20p. But if they do it again, then you'll very much see they don't give two ****s about PI wealth generation, just the IIs and themselves.

In summary, my opinion still stands on us being sub 15p until the f/o lands or late December, whichever comes first. Providing poo and gas remain at these levels I just don't see how investors won't take a position by year-end, it's just going to take some time. Santa rally may be the point we're pushed over this mark. My reason to stay here and not chase rainbows elsewhere is the f/o. If done on good terms this will take the sp over 15p (creating a new base), and I believe it will creep higher from this level until we're ready to drill. I see 6 months as the total time-frame between now and drilling the Nth Sea at which point I believe we'll be in the 20's. And I see a 0.5p divi being paid for my patience in April. This represents the lion's share of my Main Market plus AIM portfolio in case anyone thinks my criticism of how management has made the recent acquisition makes me a 'de-ramper'. AIMHO GLA

My take fwiw is the market has over-reacted to the company withdrawing guidance for 2021. It's understandable when one considers the financing is what's required to meet that guidance. Having said this it's always going to go down like a lead balloon, especially if you're not getting an inkling of what will be possible by year-end. Market hates uncertainty. Otherwise everything is looking much better and a huge amount of progress has been made. Highlights include another stope is opened next month, and this will be doubled to 4 in December. This de-risks the operational side of things (funding aside), and means they can maintain a higher head grade, copper production etc. They also confirmed the hedge will be cleared this year. This was the second major anchor on the share price, after funding, which is positive. The drawback if when full production throughput will be reached, which again relies on the financing. They have grown throughput alongside copper produced, but still need to double the tonnage if they want to hit full production - is this possible, and by when? They are managing the impact of Covid, which bodes well for the Winter months. The ore sorter feasibility looks like a dead certainty to progress given the significant incremental gains in copper, gold and silver that will be produced. We should also get assay results soon, which one would expect to be quite strong given recent successes.

So the big one is they need to close the financing. This means they can provide year-end guidance (good or bad), and more importantly guidance for H1 2022. It also means they can focus solely on getting the throughput maximized and making the most of the higher head grade as more stopes are opened. Reading between the lines it sounds as though they've hit a stumbling block and are applying pressure to the lenders to get their act together. They can of course draw down on the credit card, which isn't ideal. Or they can do a modest capital raise. Both will mean they need to borrow less, which in some ways will put two fingers up to the financing partners who are f@cking them around.

Hopefully financing sorted in the coming weeks and the re-rate to 25-30p can happen. It would be great if this was closely followed by some strong assays, which will support the share price should year end guidance be a disappointment. With financing, strong assays, hedge cleared, 4 stopes opened in December, plus a promise of profitability in Q1, I can see us back to +30p in a flash. I do believe all of these things will happen so will continue to accumulate now and on any weakness. Holding 300k currently. AIMHO. GLA.

Well I just picked up 110,000. Pretty good deal given rns. Not sure why the big drop but may go in harder if we stay down here much longer. Average now 20p.

By the way I agree with your 3 bullet point list. Doesn't change the fact the reason it hasn't happened is because of all the confetti shares being flipped. Does this all not feel a little familiar? The debate over the sp v fundamentals v dilution v time-frame to re-rate...?

Tony, just a reminder the sp was anchored to 11p for months (07th July - 20 September by my reckoning). And the 14p part I think has been your projection (recently), whilst mine has been quite consistent at not breaking 15p until year-end unless the f/o lands in the meantime. I'm sure a bit of digging in my posting history will show this. Either way the sp is still below 15p, and by stating this is likely to be the case for a few months longer hardly makes one Dr Doom. I have little doubt 20p will be reached in the next 6 months providing the f/o is agreed in that time frame. Is that optimistic enough for you...?

Dr Doom...? Are you referring to moi Tony? I'd say I've been more right about the sp until now than pretty most on here, and most certainly you. So perhaps Dr Reality. You also need to keep in mind that months ago you were saying the sp would quickly re-rate to fair value and certainly not saying 14p by November. So at least I'm being consistent. Fwiw you'll get your 14p and probably more if we get the f/o on decent terms. But without it I doubt we'll break and stay above 15p before year end. In other words, let's hope for the f/o this month and we can both be right.