Member Info for G_G_G

To put things in to perspective, Graham earns the same salary as the CFO of the previous company I worked for. It's a ftse 250 company that employs 12,000 people, and his job is a hell of a lot more complicated than Graham's. He also doesn't get awarded tons of free & cheap options for finding some good deals and paying for it by giving away company ownership to IIs. That's called doing his job. That's why Graham gets paid an over-inflated salary. What's Majid's salary again? How long has he been paid this? How much has he put in again?

Happy for these guys to be well remunerated providing my money is generating significant returns, which it isn't compared to sector peers. And you all know why. They get paid exceedingly well for the size of our company. And no, they haven't put 'their hand in their pocket' in recent years because they give themselves shares and the IIs are fine with this because they get given shares also.

Tony for someone who is so well-researched you should know better than re-posting such garbage over here?

The Abbot doesn't quite get it, does he? Majid pulls an incredible salary and has put f'all of this salary into the company he runs over quite a few years now. So no, he has very little of his 'own skin' in the game' except for all the cheap options he has awarded himself. That's a fact. As for Graham, yes he owned a lot of the company before they f@cked everything up. He was of course meant to lose his 'share' in the same way as PIs when the first great dilution event occurred, but no he awarded himself a ton of 1p shares alongside the IIs that bailed us out. So I think reality points to Majid pulling a ridiculous salary for the size of this company over the years, and putting next to none of it into the company. And Graham has never felt the pain that we have due to awarding himself all those shares over the years. And he's put nothing in since. Good thing the Abbot lives on ADVFN.

Correct cmcc . This was mentioned by Graham in an interview.

Tony, as if Graham said 'to get more action from the bod'. Clearly I've taken liberty with words to essentially say the same thing as cmcc. I'm also not going to get into semantics with you. You're being childish like trying to use a recent failed 'binary bet' of mine to try and support your arguments. You simply wish to cling to a belief the entire Canadian market is as undervalued as us, and it couldn't possibly be the 400m shares recently printed for IIs and mgt that is holding us back from being valued at the same level as an average Canadian peer. And yet we know this isn't the case. What we do know is the very same entities that held the sp back by trading it all the way to 10p were given an opportunity to do it all again. Draw a line (remove the spike when they stopped trading for a week) and you'll see the low incline gradient that I said we'd continue on post mega raise. And guess what, if they did it with a degree of debt we would have gotten a re-rate (step up in value) then continued the same slow climb. If you're not familiar with how these thing play out then it explains why you couldn't see what I've been saying would happen all this time. But at least if you look at the charts now, you should be able to see it has happened (again). The bod aren't your friend Tony. They serve themselves, and in doing so they serve the IIs. We can of course make money, but we're picking up scraps and not considered in the same way as PIs in other, better valued companies.

As I've been saying, we have great assets. We're rock solid. But it's going to take the f/o and the run-up to H2 results and Nth Sea drilling for us to get anywhere near 20p. And that doesn't make us immune to the bod finding another deal, doing another mega-raise handing it to IIs, then giving themselves another 5% of shares for simply finding the deal. No doubt you'd probably still be saying 'great deal', 'no way they could have used debt', 'we're worth XXX now and will re-rate in 1 month'. No wonder Majid has never put his hand in his pocket. They simply award themselves shares and their II mates give them a free pass because they're being looked after handsomely as well.

I note we're back below 13.5p. Feel free to provide a plausible reason for the sp anchor - all that research must be telling you something.

'At the end of the day all that counts is oil and gas price , profit and SP . Your tit for tat is childish and just your own opinions which are just pathetic.'

Vmax, clearly you're not getting the argument. The argument is why the sp isn't significantly higher given poo and gas, and our profit. Feel free to provide a reason.

Luck, the shares being sold are the excess of what mgt threw into the trough for our II piggies to gorge. They're just regurgitating into the trough for another feed as we slowly make our way up. The reason we spiked to 16p before the acquisition was the IIs stopped trading in order to get more action from the bod. This comes from Graham himself by the way. SP will of course come good, but what you've described as 'bizarro' is what I've been describing would happen ever since they diluted the f@ck out of this company and handed it all to IIs. Anyone who heard me rant and rave months ago about what they did, will recognize this is what I've been saying would happen. Only Tony wants to convince himself the scenario that I described would play out, which is indeed playing out, is being caused by something else. That's because Tony and I have a history of arguing over this very thing and what would happen next from the last great dilution event. And now he's been wrong on both occasions.

Here it is. You want the sp to break 15p and stay there, wait for the f/o to happen. You want the sp to get past 20p and stay there, wait until March as we approach H2 results, divi payment, and drilling (hopefully) the Nth Sea. IIs will sell and re-buy into any spikes all the way up. Anything above 25p and staying there will require +50m recoverable oil being proven up / discovered in the Nth Sea. All of this does however require the bod not doing another massive dilution event and handing more ownership to their II mates.

Fwiw I'm quite certain of all the positives happening over the next 6 months, which is why I'm fine to wait and get a £20k divi end of Q1 for my patience. I'm just not sure about the bod not diluting us to oblivion again. I simply don't trust them to act in our interests, and neither does the market, or Doc Jones now for that matter. In the meantime I'll remind people how and why the sp is behaving in this manner at the moment, so they can at least learn something as we slowly edge our way toward that 20p mark. Easy money if you're patient, just not as easy as the money being made by the IIs, or the bod for that matter. GLA

So please do share the reason why we're undervalued versus our Canadian peers Tony.

As for debt, I said 'net debt' where I've assumed that we're in a zero net debt position given the numbers they have reported recently and the fact they're doing f'all by way of spending all that NOI. Maybe our net debt situation is £5m. But not a lot is it. Negligible I would say. And a hell of a lot less than many of the Canadian O&G companies valued on better metrics than us.

As for debt for the acquisition, I don't believe mgt even entertained the notion of debt based on everything I have received and heard. All they have done is given reasons why they didn't do it. They've simply justified what they've done, that's all.

But do explain the riddle of why we're undervalued against so many of our peers who have greater debt than us, because I haven't seen you explain it? Quite the contrary you're still scratching your head and trying to come up with any reason other than our mass dilution events (remember to include the extra 5% for mgt doing their job). SP is on the same trajectory as previous i.e. slowly upward, which was always going to happen unless you have your head in the sand.

Not sure what you're arguing Tony. I'm pointing out the same thing I've been saying since it happened - the mega-raise will create an anchor where the trajectory of our sp will be lower, and it will take longer (much longer) to get near 'fair value'. This argument hasn't changed, however I note that yours change regularly. Tell me with all this research, why haven't you decided on the reason why we're undervalued against Canadian peers, even when we should have a 'zero net debt' premium?

As for 20p, you like going back through people's posts - go and check when I first started saying it would happen in the next 12 months only post f/o and on the run up to drilling. But you'll need to go back months Tony.

And as for nccl, really Tony, again with this childish ****? I was very clear in saying it was a binary bet, but one I felt would happen +vely for a number reasons. Turns out it went the wrong way courtesy of President Xi blindsiding his own industry, and the world for that matter. So unfortunately I was wrong, but at least I have no issues with admitting it. Don't worry I'm not going to dig around in your history for an occasion you called 'binary bet' and got it wrong, as that would be quite pathetic.

Bottom line is your ego won't allow you to acknowledge the impact of the mega-raise on the share price of this company. That's twice now you've argued the very same thing, and been wrong both times.

FFS Tony, the reason we're not valued like KELT is because of the mega-raise! How many times have I explained the impact it would have on the sp. Go back to my posts months ago when I told you what would happen. I described the sp gradient that we'd be on i.e. identical to what has been happening. You're not getting it because your ego is in the way and don't want to admit this time, like last time, you're wrong about the impact of printing hundreds of millions of shares and handing them to IIs, rather than utilizing a mix of debt.

3) No debt (GGG should take note - no debt !! )

As I've said no debt should value us at a premium. But it doesn't. Why, because of the mega anchor provided by the mega raise. We've had +30% dilution for the acquisition. And mgt is awarding themselves 5% dilution per year for simple targets on top of their massive wage. Dilution is causing the insipid share price appreciation.

'GGG - what are you talking about- the SP is up around 11-12% in a two days. It was a solid incremental update - what were you expecting - 50%.'

No I've been saying we wouldn't break 15p and stay there before Xmas unless we get the f/o. So not expecting 50%. I expected exactly what has happened. You should know this given the number of sparring sessions we've had on the matter.

'This is part of the problem - Canadian Oil Companies are trading at historic lows and i3e is trading at the bottom end with respect to its Canadian Peers i.e. were not the only Company trading at 2 x ebitda.'

Exactly, it's part of the problem Tony, but as you've pointed out many times, and again now, we're undervalued against our under-valued Canadian peers. I'm simply pointing out the other, bigger part of the problem - the anchor provided by the mega-raise, which is something you're clearly still struggling to acknowledge even in the face of reality. If we go back through your posts from the time it happened we'd read you saying the sp will re-rate in a couple of months to 20p. You'd be talking of the new value of the company, and how this time round it will be different. Well it's a couple of months now. Same thing has happened as last time. We've been here before.

The share price won't break and stay above 15p on this update. And unless we get the f/o, it won't happen this side of Xmas. This isn't me ****bagging my own investment. After all it's how I accumulated 4m shares in the mid 5's the first time. And I'm still saying we'll get to the 20's when nearing H2 results plus Nth Sea drilling i.e. April 2022. I'm also still looking to add more. But our current reality is we're still in the 13's, just over 20% higher than the raise price. Oil and gas have gone ballistic. We've added another 1000 boepd to the significant increase from the acquisition that is now online. We have next to zero debt. Throwing of tons of fcf. Nth Sea f/o expected to close soon. And we're undervalued versus our undervalued peers.

Feel free to provide another reason for the current sp if you wish. You know my reasoning.

Serenity is the same as previous. SP reaction is muted for the very same reason I've been saying since it happened - the mega-raise has created a huge handbrake. It's the reason why we're grossly undervalued on pretty much every metric, and yes under-valued even against our Canadian peer group (who in turn are under-valued). This doesn't even take into account that we have next to zero debt, which should provide a premium in our peer group, but doesn't because rather than having another £20m debt we have an extra 175m shares. Again what I've been saying for some tie. Reckon Doc saw this as well and why he isn't pushing us for value growth anymore.

I've been saying that even with good updates we will struggle to break 15p. Today is an example of this. Yes we will slowly continue to climb on the back of solid updates such as this, but the dilution is meaning it will be slow, and the gradient low. The one thing that can change this is the f/o. Given the wording is still the same, has been 'imminent' since last Xmas, and they're now saying by year-end, the market is giving it a valuing it with a big, fat, singular zero.

The 6 month outlook is undoubtedly bright on Canada alone, but until we get the f/o I don't see us breaking 15p and staying there in the near term i.e. before Xmas. If we want to step up nearer 15p then I think we'll need Canada to lead the way. There's too many shares on this side of the pond being flipped. And we clearly don't value resource stocks in the same way as Canada. AIMHO GLA

Somewhat surprised there hasn't been another conversion this week. I was expecting at least another 2 before month end. I see this as the only anchor on the sp until we get the long awaited finance news. And even then I see it resulting in a short re-visit to the 20-21p range. Finance cannot be far away now. Expecting +28p post finance. We've been consolidating around this level for a while now. I think a lot of the buying (which wasn't that great volume wise) were people averaging down, so don't expect there will be too many profit takers until we get nearer 30p, given they won't be taking any profit with averages nearer that level. And why would one leave with nothing if the future opens up post finance.

Where we end up pre-Xmas will depend on year-end plus forward guidance. Even if the year-end guidance is below expectations I would still expect the hedge to be cleared and the 4 stopes to be opened by January at the latest. These two pieces of news with copper staying buoyant and we're back to the mid to high 30's in a flash. They just need to get the bloody finance sorted. AIMHO GLA

Moon, I think you may have embarrassed yourself enough on this board. You were right to go missing for a while, why not make it a while longer...?

Have to say I was really hoping we'd have the finance sorted today. Bit of a bugger we're still waiting. I've always thought this month. GLA

As a general rule I try not to be stupid Monkey. As for guidance, I think the relatively new CEO has been pretty clear and consistent on what he inherited and needed to be done. Covid, collapsed stope etc weren't in his control, but as he's said, if they can get the other stopes opened they have a much greater amount of leeway should these sorts of things happen again. I don't think Rambler was worth 60p when it last hit this valuation, but if they can execute in the next 2 months what TB has recently re-communicated then I do believe the company will revisit that sp before the end of Q1. But as I've said, we'll find out 'what's what' in the next 8 weeks. Your average must be pretty ugly to be this negative on your investment.

You obviously missed the sarcasm in my post Monkey :) Can't say I agree with your opinions but we'll find out soon enough. I'd say that if we miss the reaffirmed guidance from our CEO then it won't be by much i.e. days and weeks, but I do fully expect everything to happen resulting in significant sp appreciation - it's simply a matter of when. I fully expect finance to drop before mid-November, closely followed (maybe even preceded) by the 2 stopes being opened up. Over the following 6 weeks we'll get drill results, 4 stopes and hedge being cleared. If we drop back down to 20p I'm confident it will be heavily bought into for these reasons. I'll shift £60k for starters so that's 7.5% of Riverfort's remaining shares. I also think Riverfort are going to hold onto a significant proportion of the remaining $1m to drop into market post finance. Xmas we'll be 30p. GLA

Hi Leathal, yes I'd say it's quite a good entry point. From this point I think the downside is limited to about 5% and only for a matter of days if that. The upside from here is significant depending on your investment time frame and the price of commodities. I genuinely believe we will get the f/o at some point this year. I expected it in October but it may be pushed a month. This to me is the near term +15p re-rate opportunity and I expect it to steadily climb from this point as we approach H2 results and near Nth Sea spudding of wells. My target is 100% upside in 6 months. With an oil strike / appraisal results of significance (+100m recoverable) I think the sp could triple (depending on how much ownership we retain). All this regardless of how much incremental production is being generated in Canada. I'm hoping the interview next week is to announce something positive in the way of a f/o for Nth Sea or the Canadian acreage, and/or an incremental +1,000 boepd from drilling and well clean-ups / reactivations. Imo, the only thing that will leave 15p in the rearview mirror before Xmas is the Nth Sea f/o. But plenty of other news items that could push us nearer that mark as well. AIMHO

Why so optimistic all of a sudden Monkey.

I've said it a million times. The SP will move up slowly on the same trajectory we've been on for some time. The only thing that will change this is the f/o. It will provide us with an immediate re-rate (my estimate 3-5p) and then we'll continue to climb slowly into the drilling of the Nth Sea wells. I think by the time we spud the first well in the Nth Sea we'll be in the 20-22p range (with oil and gas prices staying relatively buoyant). A few more 100-200 boepd wells in Canada may give us 0.5-1p, but certainly not enough to leave 15p behind. Anyone wondering why the disconnect, which is greater than peer valuations, well it's because +350m shares were printed at 11p a few months ago. The same reason I've been giving since it happened. Painful to watch other stocks re-rate on current oil and gas prices over the past 3 months but this is the cost of doing a mega-placing to fund the recent acquisition. Others disagreed at the time and still now, but the sp doesn't lie (nor did it last time). And it's interesting that Doc feels the same way enough to disinvest from this company for the time being. Clearly he understands what's happened as well. Hopefully some good news on the f/o in the coming weeks and we can get half way to fair value pre-Xmas. Either that or they can start buying back shares as we haven't heard much in the way of drilling lately. I'm hoping this is because they know they'll need $25m to fully drill the Nth Sea in the new year and are looking toward deploying 'company maker' cash whilst maintaining a high level of ownership (+40%) of these assets. As always patience required here. GLA

There's very little chance they will get them at a lower price. The question is just how many have they converted in the 16's? And, are there any limitations on them being able to dump into the market? Either way, they have just over £1m left to convert, which is circa 4% dilution and then the bottom feeders will be done. It would be great if they can sort the bloody finance so there's no more ultra low conversions.

Hi guys, anyone have an answer to my question regarding whether Riverfort have a limit on how many they can convert in a particular time frame e.g. every 2 weeks. It appears every 2-4 weeks they're cashing in, but wasn't sure if there's some rules attached to the CLNs. Good practice so hoping RMM have it covered.

Looks like 20p is holding at the moment, but it's a battle. If Riverfort cash in another $2-400k without some positive news from the company in the coming weeks then we may end up back around the 18p range. I've got cash set aside for another 200-300k if we drop back into the 18's. I imagine there's many more sitting on the sidelines, like DJ, who will also provide some support. Quite excited on this one for Xmas. Expecting at least 50% return. GLA