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SP is at joke level again. Bod need to deliver some news. We have 6 weeks until Xmas, let's hope they can deliver on their commitment of an extensive drill program and the very long awaited f/o in that time.

Doorstop, isn't the argument that Tain and Serenity are connected...? Would certainly make things easy if they are one big field :)

Nice one on the research Tony.

Let's hope they do move quickly. As for the sp strength followed by recent weakness, I put that down to buying in the run-up to announcement of results, ex-divi, followed by divi re-investment. We're now in a slow news period, which always results in sp decline until we get something worthwhile. So I don't think COP26 has anything to do with it.

Vmax, it was a question to the person who actually did post the statement, in other words not me.

Agreed Tony on the buy-backs. I don't think Majid putting his hand in his pocket will do much for the sp, but he should bloody well do it given he is CEO, his salary is inflated for such a small cap company, and it shows the f@cker isn't just going to sit back and award himself easy options for simply doing his job (for which he takes an inflated salary).

The one thing I obviously disagree on is the reasoning behind our share growth under-performance. To me it's clearly the impact of the capital raise. And one way to start chipping away at this is to buy back some of the shares sloshing around in the market. We get capital appreciation for less shares constantly changing hands. And a higher dividend payout if the proportion of fcf is maintained. They can keep them in the treasury for future acquisitions if needs be.

Whatever it is they need to do something. Take on some debt and go after the Nth Sea. Or, take on some debt and kickstart a huge Canadian drilling campaign. A significant Canadian drilling program will put 10% on todays' share price and increase the growth trajectory with every 250boepd incrementally added to production. But this will take at least 12 months before we get to 20p imo as it will need a good 2500-3000 incremental boepd to be brought online (imo). But if they announce the Nth Sea then I can see us jumping 20-30% immediately, and hitting 20p just prior to drilling in less than 6 months. If they continue with Canada expansion (courtesy of larger debt) then add a few more pennies. Relatively low debt levels (versus revenue, fcf) pointed at short term growth triggers will always be rewarded by the market, even more so when commodity prices are strong. Whatever they do they need to look at taking on debt. F@cking crazy not to be looking at things in this way if they want growth.

I often go back to when we were discussing what we'd be happy with for a take-over of this company. Unfortunately my value is still the same, even with all the extra production. I'd take 20p tomorrow if someone offered it, which is only average peer value with no real premium. This shows my annoyance with the lack of share price appreciation. I mean we're back in the 11's ffs. We now have 6 weeks for the Canadian drilling campaign and announcement of the f/o. Let's hope they deliver.

nomadic, I'm not sure what you're expecting from this f/o, but I'd be genuinely surprised if we get anything more than 1 free carried drill, which I believe mgt have pointed to in recent interviews. So value of circa $20m from memory. The remaining 2-3 drills will be paid in part by us. If we retain 50% ownership then we pay 50% of the cost of the remaining drills. So we'd still have to pay a reasonable sum of money. But equally we'll be valued at far less in the success case.

Reality of our situation is we're now back in the 11's, and there's very little in the near future to get us anywhere near our undervalued peers except for the f/o. As per Tony's workings we should be valued nearer 20p, just to be in-line with the average Canadian producer who no doubt has more debt, less 2P reserves, & no major exploration upside (e.g. Serenity). Important to note that debt isn't a factor for under-valuation unless the market sees it as something the company cannot manage. Indeed debt can add value if it's providing strong growth upside, and is manageable. I'd say that 100m recoverable barrels of Brent in this market would represent incredible upside. In fact I'd go as far as saying that we'd be valued closer to 50p this time next year if this was proven, and we retained full ownership. This is where our Canadian production really comes into play as it will finance whatever we retain of this field, whilst supporting our hand in negotiations that would probably involve majors.

Imo there is no way $50m debt will ever break the company, but what it will do is provide a significant re-rate in value just on announcement alone. This will increase into the drilling program. And if we prove up anything near or exceeding 50m recoverable barrels then we're suddenly trading in the 30's, rather than still languishing in the teens in another year. I also believe we're fast approaching a 'use it or lose it' scenario due to environmental pressure. So I for one would rather they roll the dice on it now. They have already made a discovery, so it's hardly wild-catting in the area. Plus I'm sure they learned a few lessons from the last failure / success that played out.

Fwiw I prefer the f/o scenario, but if this isn't going to happen in the next 8 weeks I'm happy for them to go it alone. I'd also be happy for them to do a raise further down the line at a much higher sp to limit some of the debt taken on. My position is they should get on with it. I'm very happy for them to put a relatively small, manageable amount of risk onto our books in a booming market, for the huge upside potential. AIMHO GLA

Tony, when did Majid say the f/o was 'definitely going to happen'? Great news if he has said this recently.

Or, dare I say cmcc, they could take on some debt now to kickstart drilling Canada AND Nth Sea. We need to remember that we're now a cash cow and in mgt's words have the headroom to take on debt. I'd imagine $40m would more than cover our plans alongside current fcf generation. Every month that goes by we're accumulating more cash that could otherwise be putting a hole in the ground and in 12 weeks paying itself off, or it could be paying off any debt we've taken on to get the Nth Sea and Canadian plans up and running. If they decide to go it alone on Serenity I'd imagine it will be mid next year before we start drilling anything. By the time the drill plans have completed (say 3 wells by end 2022) they would have generated enough cash to pay back half of it via the best part of 12 months cash accumulation from current production. Before anyone says 'debt is bad / risky etc', this would be offset by increasing the amount of hedged production. Better to start paying for work now while the sun is shining and prices are supportive. Any loss of potential revenue by hedging another 15% would be more than covered by the incremental production from more wells in Canada, plus the value assigned to the sp for +50m recoverable barrels (Brent) in the Nth Sea. We'd be sitting on 30p quite easily, and it wouldn't bother me in the slightest if they issued another 100m shares at 25p to pay off the Nth Sea debt in its entirety. I'd rather they issue 100m shares for doing this, than giving a similar amount to themselves for having done f'all for the sp. Have to keep in mind they will award themselves a ton of options for effectively turning up and doing their jobs. No stretch at all, and as a consequence there's little return for us if they 'hit their targets'.

By taking out some debt they could really kickstart Canadian exploration and production, which would hit the bottom line in the very short-term. And they could drill the 'company maker' acreage, which will provide the greatest value upside. All would be comfortably paid off by mid-2023 at similar commodity prices with current and any incremental Canadian production. I really want them to focus on the share price, get **** moving, and stop doing a little bit here and there to pick up their easy options. AIMHO

You don't need to convince me of the over-hang fellas. I've been arguing it would take up to 6 months for it to clear since the mega raise unless we get major news like the f/o to turbo rinse the overhang. Unfortunately it's beginning to dawn on me the f/o may not be a certainty due to environmental pressure, which is perhaps why people are starting to look elsewhere. Unless we get the f/o I can't see us moving toward the 20p fair value estimates based on Canadian drilling alone. It's why I've been saying that mgt really do need to get the f/o done if we're to re-rate, and why they should go it alone if we're still kicking around an agreement at year-end. It would also do a lot for their credibility after all this time hearing about our wonderful Nth Sea assets. Issue with Canada is it takes a good 3 months for a well to be drilled / tested / producing, and given we haven't even seen any plans for next year, we could conceivably be sitting here this time next Xmas having drilled and completed only 15 or so wells. This MIGHT amount to 2500-3000 boepd, which is great, but we also need to keep in mind our production decline of 1500-2000 boepd per year.

Bottom line, they need to be drilling the Nth Sea plus drilling a lot of wells in Canada for us to get past 20p in the next 6 months. AIMHO GLA

Nerves of steel required to be invested in this company. I really do hope we go it alone if the f/o partner is still f@cking around at Xmas. To think a company with 19,000boepd (on-shore), some of the best acreage in Canada, facilities worth hundreds of millions (plus income generator), +50m 2P reserves, Nth Sea discovery with up to 100m recoverable barrels (Brent), and next to zero net debt, is valued at less than £140m. If an offer was made tomorrow at +50% current share price the acquisition would be paid off in less than 3 years. Ridiculous really. Mgt really need to deliver some decent news to get this moving. F/o, extensive drilling program with near-term start dates, recent production gains even for 500boepd, anything really. We're going to be back at placing price at this rate. GLA

Haven't been trading (yet), but will do when I see the right opportunity. I also said I'd be transparent on when I've done it. Not all my shares, just a chunk of them. I need to get past my target of 4.75m.

Haha, well at least when I was being very critical I was saying the only way to manage this is to buy as much as possible while the sp is near the placing price before it slowly goes up. Afaics I've been right on what would happen following the raise. Unfortunately I bought most of my extra 1m shares at an average of 12.5p, so could have gotten at least another 100k shares if I took my own advice and not gone after that binary bet that you like to regularly remind me of making.

Posted before I finished. So does this list say I'm a pumper? Funny if it does given anyone following this stock would know I've been highly critical of the decision to pay for our recent acquisition with a capital raise placed with IIs. So probably more equal pump / dump on this stock, which makes me quite balanced really :)

Can someone provide a link to this pump / dump web

I should know this, but what is the current licensing situation for our Nth Sea assets? I'm assuming we have all the exploration licenses covered, but guessing we don't have license to exploit / produce our assets...?

Some great benchmarks against our under-valued Canadian peers Tony. I'm guessing our debt v fcf number is a fraction of the average as well. Nth Sea f/o will be the trigger for us to re-rate closer to the average. And even then we'd be under-valued @ 18.6p given the significant reserve / production upside and low debt multiple. We really need that spark. I also think it's time mgt give our prospective partner an ultimatum - they either front up this quarter or we're going it alone. There's simply too much risk associated with dragging things out wrt to regulation and legislation. They need to get those Nth Sea barrels proven up and flowing sooner rather than later. I also think mgt credibility will take a blow if they tell us Q1 in another month. That would make it more than a year since it was 'imminent'. And even with evidence of funds there's still all the paperwork that needs to be completed. At this rate I think H1 drilling is starting to look shaky. Only 7 more weeks til we get news of one way or another. GLA

Well that was the last two top-ups for me with 100k and 65k. I think the words over-exposed are probably fair to describe my position here. Having said that I can only see blue-sky, as you might expect from someone with a little over 4.5m shares. I think we'll take a little bump up with the Canadian drilling program, but they really do need to finalize that bl@@dy f/o. It has been dragging on for so long that investors just roll their eyes now. At the rate they're going there will be a ban on Nth Sea drilling. If the partner is going to continue f@cking them around I'd rather they take out a loan and go it alone. Best way to see if the partner is for real or just jerking them around. With f/o and drilling taking place in Q2 I think we'll be sitting around 20p at ex-divi date early April next year. Major correction / crash and we should still be above 15p, but don't see us being below that number unless there is a huge oil / gas correction. This appears quite unlikely given the current supply crunch and OPEC manipulation going on. Just 5 more months to wait. AIMHO, GLA

Justbe, best not to ask about CoS after what happened last time we drilled the Nth Sea. Good thing is we've already made a discovery in Serenity, so it's really about proving up resources and more importantly whether it's economical to extract. I'm hoping they're going to put a well into the Minos High structure, plus any other structure they feel could be a large discovery. This could be the last roll of the dice in the wider acreage so best to look at everything they feel could be valuable. Extraction should be easy due to historical performance of the area. And then there's the Bleo Holm nearby. So any economic, recoverable resource is likely to be worth significantly more than the average due to the lower costs associated with exploiting it.

Unfortunately I think we're going to be anchored to £150m Mcap until we get some news. Even with all the divi reinvestments, which should largely have been absorbed by now, we still only got to 13p. I bought 850k shares yesterday as well, and never paid more than 12.76p. So could be a decent sized seller down here. Hopefully this is the last of these silly prices and we get the f/o news in the next 4 weeks. GLA

Hi Nomadic, I have a similar outlook for this stock, although I'll trade up to 1.5m of my holding whenever I feel the market has gotten away and likely to pull-back. My target is +4.75m shares before drilling next year. My personal outlook is with a successful farm-out, +35% ownership, and +50m Brent recoverable proven up we'll likely hit £300m Mcap (27p). If we prove up 100m recoverable then easily £400m (36p). Anything more seems a little unrealistic to me at the moment, and akin to thinking about winning a lottery ticket.

So significant upside and little downside except in the case of a great depression style crash, at which point we're all f@cked anyway. You're right though, a market wide crash will infect everything, including O&G. However for any O&G I believe there will be a bit of immunity for the following reasons:
- Current high commodity prices due to supply crunch, so prices will only slowly decrease as the supply crunch will still be an issue and likely to become worse should a crash kill off investment longer still.
- OPEC capability to manage supply (prices) to point of hugely depressed demand e.g. during Covid lock-downs
- Ultimately countries will try to build their way out of any major crash, as they're doing now

So definitely concerned with the general outlook but hoping the crash comes after Q2 next year and mgt recognize they need to get a move on and finalize the drilling of the Nth Sea. You don't want to wait this long and then have an external factor f@ck up your plans. Imo the Nth Sea is also the only thing (aside from another excellent debt funded acquisition) that will take us to +25p in the next 12 months. They have drilled only a handful of holes in the past 6 months so I do question how many they can drill over the next 12 months in Canada. But let's say they manage to drill 25 holes next year, the likely outcome is +2000boepd incremental production based on a 8-10% decline on current wells and 150boepd (net) production to i3e. Maybe this could increase by 500-1,000boepd with some better results and clean-ups / reactivations, but you see how it's not a lot of incremental oil and gas to our current numbers and why the market is unlikely to push us too far beyond 20p. Some may disagree but I think it will require some 'big' news to get us on the herd's radar and push us into the 20's where we belong. That means Nth Sea a +20 well drill plan in Canada alongside the Nth Sea in Q2 next year. If we have this locked-in for next year then +20p will be a doddle by end Q1. AIMHO GLA

Makes perfect sense. Annoyed I even asked now. Thanks Sid.