Member Info for G_G_G

Agree Hababo. If we get the loan sorted then more than enough for the divi, an expanded Canadian exploration / production plan, plus a 3 well Nth Sea exploration / appraisal program. All of these things will push the sp higher and I'd imagine we'd be no more than $50m in net debt at year-end. Having said this, with some modest success in the Nth Sea (+50m recoverable) with no f/o agreement, then I'd imagine our mcap will be comfortably above $400m. Puts into perspective the minimal debt we'd be carrying for the size of the company with +20kboepd production. Anyway, there's a ton of options available to mgt all of which will result in a higher sp this year. The f/o is definitely the preferred option, but if our prospective partners keep f@cking us around then give them an ultimatum and go it alone if necessary. GLA

Quick one, what's the estimated build time for the project? For some reason I have 2 years in my head, but after checking the website I couldn't find anything outlining a time-frame. I've bought and sold this stock many times over the years - It has been a wonderful investment. Just trying to work out when to re-enter for the long-haul.

Absolutely mind boggling share price. I think if mgt care about boosting it further they may need to re-look at the guaranteed dividend if the f/o isn't forthcoming in the next month or so. Announcing a guaranteed divi was a great move and resulted in the recent +20% sp boost (from 11p mind). But if there's to be no 'new news' in the coming weeks / month then we could find ourselves back in the 11's. A mere £2.25m will put 20% on the guaranteed divi and provide a 7% yield at 18p. This would be quite a statement with the added benefit of getting the Eric Nuttal's of the world onside. The f/o of course is what we need most. If it's not confirmed by mid-January they should provide an update. Shareholders waited for months on their 'before year-end' guidance. If it's not going to land in the next week or two they should tell us where things stand and provide new guidance. This is simply good investor comms. I'm still confident we'll breach 15p in the run-up to ex-divi, but this is 3 months away. We could do with some more positive news before-hand. GLA

I should add that some solid wells in our Clearwater or Simonette acreage will also give the sp a boost, but I don't see them taking us to 30p until we've drilled enough of them to prove our acreage is better than the average. A few better than average wells in these areas I think will take us to the very high teens by end of H1 (without f/o). To be honest there's lots of factors to drive the sp higher. In a previous post I mentioned another £2.25m committed to the divi will give us a 7% yield at 18p. This would be the easiest (and cheapest) way to push the sp higher so hoping they do this alongside the planned Canadian exploration / appraisal wells, and we get the f/o sorted for drilling this year. Lots of blue-sky here and very little downside.

Cenkman, I think Tony has pointed out previously it depends on the oil / gas ratio so using boepd isn't the best comparative measure to use. Imo it's better to use fcf multiples, and then look at net debt plus incremental growth opportunities in portfolios as a means of comparing whether a company should be valued at a premium (or not) against the sector fcf average. The last element - incremental growth - is why I keep saying the f/o is key to unlocking a significant sp re-rate. Proving up +100m recoverable Brent combined with the short time frame to monetise the resource should value i3e at a premium to peers on comparable fcf multiples, rather than the current undervaluation that exists. It would greatly increase our oil reserves (and near term production), plus diversify to Nth Sea (Brent). When combined with our low net debt, solid fcf, and sector leading dividend, we should valued at a significant premium versus peers. We just need the spark to draw investor attention to all the other elements, which imo is the f/o (Graham apparently shares this pov). It's why I'm saying secure the debt facility and go it alone in the Nth Sea if necessary. Our partners I'd imagine will pull their fingers out once given an ultimatum of losing the opportunity altogether. And if not, who cares, we'll have more value attributed to us once the assets have been appraised.

Looking forward to the coming months, especially if we get the f/o done and dusted. If we get the f/o done we're at +20p when drilling. If we prove up +50m recoverable barrels whilst maintaining +40% ownership, then 30p should be easily achieved. If we prove up +100m barrels then who knows where the sp will settle. AIMHO GLA

Yoyo, I agree they should say something on the f/o given the statements they've made over the past few months on it completing by year-end. The only reason for them not to say something is if they're confident the f/o will close in the next fortnight. If we're still waiting to hear something post mid-January then it's not ok for mgt to pretend they haven't said something and stay schtum on the matter. A simple 'it's still on the table and we're expecting it to complete by XXX' will suffice. What I'd like them to add is 'if it doesn't complete by XXX we will go it alone and drill X wells at X date'. If the f/o partner is Repsol then we know they have the money and need to stop f@cking us around. A line in the sand will help them to make a decision one way or another, and give investors confidence that we're going to make use of our Nth Sea assets in 2022. Repsol will know a few drills proving up the resource and the fields are connected will mean they have to pay a lot more for a future stake in the assets. They would also know we have the means to go it alone if necessary, especially if we can close a debt facility in the next few months. It's time to deliver a simple message to our potential f/o partner - sign or f@ck off.

Nice to end the year in the 13's. Still carrying a guaranteed 8% yield at this sp and cannot see us at less than 15p (7% yield) by ex-divi date. This also doesn't take into account any good news on the f/o or Canadian drilling. Part of me would like to see them guarantee another 20% (£2.25m) to the divi in March. A guaranteed 1.26p payout in 2022 would mean a 7% yield @ 18p. One way to force a re-rate in the sp for a measly £2.25m investment, especially if poo and gas remain at these levels for the next couple of months. Truly excited to see what 2022 brings here.

Somewhat disappointed with the share price given gas has gone on a tear due to crazy winter weather conditions in Nth America. And having WTI around $75 means we're banking a lot of cash right now. God I hope they announce the f/o soon as current conditions alongside a huge amount of attention generated by the f/o will provide a serious re-rate to this stock. C'mon Graham and Majid, get it done.

True nomadic, but we need a spark that will attract enough eyes to the significant under-valuation of this stock versus our under-valued peers. This spark imo is the f/o. Even Graham has acknowledged this in a response to a PI where he stated that he believes the sp will 'pop' when the f/o is announced. Just to be valued in line with the Canadian sector average I believe would take us to 17-18p (Tony in the best place to confirm). But with the f/o, relatively modest debt, and significant exploration upside, there are very strong reasons to believe we would be valued at a premium to our peers. This is where we move to +20p and stay there. But we need something to attract widespread investor attention to these things, and I don't believe the slow grind of drilling in Canada will necessarily achieve this. With current plans it will only give us circa 10% incremental production when accounting for average decline rates. We could of course get a boost from some above average wells proving up Clearwater and Simonette. But imo these alone won't provide attention grabbing headlines for the herd to stampede in our direction. Share buy-backs and special divis I'd put in the same boat. Nice little boost, but not enough to attract the herd. The Nth Sea f/o with drilling next year, or another decent acquisition (debt funded) are the big ones. Without them I still believe we'll see 18-20p, but not the guaranteed +25p that would come with one of them. Providing poo and gas remain at these levels there's no way one can lose form here, especially keeping in mind the GUARANTEED divi is 7% at 15p. From an investment perspective I've never been more excited for a new year to kick off. GLA

Serenity anytime in the next month will do me providing we're sitting above 12p when the news lands. Timing on these things can make a huge difference as the rush to get in will replace a lot of weak hands, but at a higher average price. Sometime very early in the New Year would be a great way to kick things off, again providing we're sitting above 12p. If it happens soon, and we're drilling late H1 / early H2 then it will be the spark to get the party going. It will be incredibly exciting to hold as we'll be drilling all Q1, getting results end Q1 and throughout Q2, then H2 results / ex-divi in April, plus drilling Nth Sea and the remainder of Canada only a couple of months later. Throw in a debt facility for future acquisitions or super-charging the drilling program and we're through 20p. Prove up the Clearwater / Simonette acreage and we're at 25p. Add +50m recoverable barrels in the Nth Sea and we're through 30p. But they key in getting to these numbers as I've been saying for many months is the f/o. It's the sort of news that gets the attention of the herd. I'd bet on +5p within a month of news breaking, but if the 88e crew arrive en-masse then it's anyone's guess what those muppets will take the price to by the time we're drilling the Nth Sea. I'd truly love to be part of one of those 'herd' shares. You see a few of them 3-5 bagging in the space of a couple of months every year, often solely on the back of hope and not news. How I'd love that to happen here. F/o first though. AIMHO GLA

Correct fairdealer, it's a committed number. As is the development programme budget. It's why I was saying I think we'll move back to the 12-13p range in the coming weeks / month. I think we'll then creep toward the 14-15p range (7-7.5% committed yield) heading into ex-divi date. Clever of the bod to force the share price to slowly re-rate by removing any doubt around the divi. They've also communicated that 55% of the capital programme budget is being utilized in H1, so we can expect to see results every 3-4 weeks from January with 17 wells to be drilled over the year. The fact they've also highlighted this is the base case is also reassuring i.e. the divi can easily increase given our cash position at end of year. As can a share buy-back program be employed. Each can add 10% to the sp for relatively little outlay. Or the cash can of course be used for more Canadian development, or drilling the Nth Sea. Base case is very strong. We just need a spark, which I believe requires the f/o. AIMHO GLA

DPOW, I don't think this rns should take us to 20p (at least) for a few reasons.

1. Still churning placing shares. And yes I do believe the funds are trading at the edges - see response to Tony on this point.
2. Dividend supports a sp of 14-15p for a yield of 7-7.5% guaranteed. The sp won't get to this point until the run-up to ex-divi date, which is what happened last time, but it will get there comfortably.
3. Drilling won't start positively impacting the sp until they get some Clearwater or Simonette results. These are recognized oil plays, but we have no idea just how prolific our acreage happens to be versus average, and therefore needs some proving up. I expect an extra 2-3p on the sp early H2 as we start to see results from the H1 wells. If better than expected in these areas then add a couple more pennies.
4. Nth Sea f/o. I don't think this is an anchor on the share price, but it's certainly the joker in the pack that will add 3-4p in a flash. This I'm now more confident of due to the guaranteed divi payments for next year.
5. Sector is unloved. Until the market starts to wake up to the opportunity in O&G for massive income and modest to good value growth we will remain somewhat under the radar. We're undervalued versus our undervalued peers, but I expect this to change when the divi is about to be paid and we start getting some Canadian drill results. A re-rate to sector average (we should be at least this number given organic growth opportunity and low debt) should take us to 16-17p.

Given all of the above my realistic 12 month target with poo and gas staying stable is 20p. This would involve incremental 2kboepd to current base production, small share buy-back (5-10%), modest divi increase. They can obviously be flexed a lot with further exploration, better than expected results, or bigger divi / share buy-back.

If we get the f/o then add 3-4p. And if we drill and prove up +50% estimated recoverable barrels (retaining min 40% ownership) then add minimum 10p. So min 30p. Pretty clear to see the blue-sky potential of the Nth Sea when you look at it this way. The f/o (and drilling of the Nth Sea) really is the key to us smashing 20p in the next 12 months and never looking back. It's why I keep saying I'd like them to roll the dice and go it alone if necessary.

AIMHO

Excellent update. I'm especially happy with the fact they've committed to a minimum divi payout, plus development budget. These are guaranteed for shareholders and will help to re-set the sp in the coming weeks to a higher level - I can see us back in the 12's this year / early Jan on the back of this. As mentioned previously I think the climb will start in the run-up to H2 results and divi payment. It happened last time, and I think it will repeat (providing we don't have another acquisition or f/o deal finalized). My estimate is back to 14-15p range at ex-divi, so 7-7.5% yield based on committed payments.

Cmcc I agree with your sense they're 'keeping powder dry' for a potential acquisition, buy-back, divi increase, or even perhaps going Serenity alone. The end-year forecast unencumbered cash position is significant, which would allow them to do a combination of these things e.g. 10% share buy-back, 25% divi boost, and still have money to drill 2 x wells in the Nth Sea. Providing they utilise debt for another acquisition or exploration / expansion then I'm happy. Debt for an acquisition is by far the best use of funds, providing they can achieve similar metrics to the past 2 x acquisitions. I'm also comfortable with them using it for high impact / high value exploration / production. Some of our Canadian acreage is somewhat unproven. Some regions e.g. Clearwater, are known to be prolific, however we all know there can be a huge variance in average values (up and down) by acreage. So some proving up is needed, but you get the bonus of production and quick payback. Sinking some wells in the Nth Sea would be the highest impact decision and provide a boost to the sp in the run up to spudding the first well. But if they hit even half of the estimated recoverable barrels then we're looking at +10p on the prevailing sp at the time. Given the end-year cash position I'm happy for them to take that bet. Having 2 x wells will make it worth the while and increase the probability of success. Having said this another acquisition would be my preferred use of debt.

Really +ve update, and the payouts will only increase from this level with special divis to be added. Plus value can only increase with incremental production, and buy-backs, which make absolute sense at this level (being the capital raise price).

On a personal note I'm very happy to be overly exposed in this share. The value upside is guaranteed, and potentially quite large. It's just a matter of when. Plus I get circa £50k post tax guaranteed next year for my patience. I imagine other PIs will start to think the same way and park their cash here in the coming weeks / months.

Serenity silence is deafening though. Good or bad...? AIMHO GLA

Agree DPOW the silence is phenomenally annoying. Hopefully the bod are about to surprise us with something significant like the f/o or an acquisition. Short of this they need to deliver the plans for 2022 as promised. They've now got 5 days. GLA

Sorry Oldtownhat, but where the f@ck have you come from? Oh let me guess you're one of those well informed lths who own a ton of shares and have only now decided to throw their 'hat' in the ring. Really can't wait for your next pearl of wisdom.

Tony, it must have been so difficult to eat even a small piece of humble pie. Well done.

As for everything else. We've agreed to disagree on whether debt was available. I don't think they even tried. You believe they exhausted every possible avenue and the only thing they could possibly get from the IIs was an all equity deal. Can't say I believe it, but it makes no difference now.

Regarding PIs anchoring the price to 11p. Seriously? And how has this come about again? Some PI asks Graham what's going on, and Graham says he asked some bottom feeding fund managers who he gave a $h!t ton of equity to in the last mega-raise whether they're trading. They say no. And suddenly that's the truth of the matter? And you believe that $h!t? You really are one of the most well researched, yet gullible investors I've ever come across. But let's play this out. Firstly, do you think IIs are able to play with millions of shares at the edges and not go over notifiable thresholds? For that matter do you think they always announce when they have passed thresholds when they're trading over / under them on a daily / weekly basis?

Some more questions, if PIs didn't participate in the 11p mega raise, why do we keep bouncing back to this number? The same number where IIs were given a few hundred million shares? Why not a different base? Here's another way of looking at things, remember how the last time the share price took off was leading up to the recent mega raise. Remember in an interview Graham alluded to the fact this occurred because IIs had stopped trading pre-deal, and consequently PIs were responsible for the fast rise to 16p. So the IIs were trading up until the most recent deal, but when they stopped the share price spiked from PIs buying, unknowing that a mega-raise would soon be announced for the very same IIs that had stopped trading so they could take even greater equity at the price of, you guessed it, our new base 11p.

The IIs were trading last time, which was always an anchor on the share prince. But now we're meant to believe they're not doing it this time because Graham spoke to some of the prats and they said they're not doing it. The free float is less than 40% and it's PIs that have been flipping hundreds of millions of shares the past 5 months...? What an absolute load of horse****.

Tony, if you're contacted by some Nigerians with a too good to be true deal, try not to give them your bank details. Oh, and try not to take any of this too personally :)

$h!t, maybe this will work and not come up as ****

Tony, in my previous post when I state 'famously lost his ****', the word in special characters is '****'. Not shirt. Or @ss. You've clearly filled in the characters incorrectly. Or not. To be honest I really don't give a ****

Tony, that ego of yours is quite fragile isn't it.

Firstly, I've never once said I lost my @ss on i3e. Quite the contrary, I've been very upfront about my position all along. My anger was always directed at the sp value that hasn't been realized from a very good acquisition due to the way the deal was structured i.e. 100% equity. Go back through my posts as you like to do and find me examples that state anything different.

On valuation you had it wrong from the minute they did the 100% equity deal. And yes you are too proud to admit it. Did you read the article on Tullow btw?

As for debt. If you cannot see how easily serviced $95m of debt would be for a company that would be producing close to 40kboepd (post deal) then you're a lost cause and clearly have no idea about how / when debt should be utilised.

As for nccl. I always made it very clear it was a binary bet. You being a somewhat petty little man have to continue reminding me of this binary bet going wrong. Does that somehow make your arguments stronger Tony? Or is it the way your ego reacts to people pointing out your thesis has been flawed from the beginning. Thankfully I can afford to make binary bets and get them wrong Tony, because I make so many more bets and get them right. But the ego isn't so fragile that I can't admit when I get them wrong. Be a bigger man Tony.

Sorry I meant to add the reason we'll move upwards without a f/o / acquisition / Canadian exploration is because the H2 results and divi will be so great that it has to lift the sp. But that will only happen in the run-up to H2 results, which is a couple of months away. I really hope we get at least 1 of the other 3 drivers in the meantime though.

'There’s a certain element of dilution and profit taking in way the sp has behaved but I think that has been overplayed - if you read the article from Nuttall I posted earlier - were not the only Canadian Oiler priced at bargain basement prices'

But you've argued we're the most undervalued on a variety of metrics versus our Canadian peers Tony. You can't have it both ways. The obvious reason we're significantly undervalued versus our under-valued Canadian peers is dilution. We're not 20p like you said we'd be. We're still anchored to 11p.

As I've said many times, we'll need something like the f/o completing, or another predominantly DEBT FUNDED acquisition, to re-rate the sp in the very near future. Drilling takes time to hit the bottom line. It also takes significant investment (and results) to move the sp. And at this rate, with no Canadian exploration plans let alone action, if they were to start drilling wells tomorrow we wouldn't have reliable / tested well results until March.

Either way I'm not concerned. Poo and gas are still strong and if they stay at these levels or higher for Q1 then we'll get to 15p without the f/o, an acquisition, or decent initial Canadian exploration results. But if they can deliver 2 of 3 then we'll stay above 15p and perhaps even break the magical 20p mark. And as Tony has pointed out, this would still only value us in-line with our under-valued Canadian peers. GLA

Tony, not to go over well trodden ground, but it matters not what my average is. What matters is the fact we should be valued much higher than we are now. The reason we're not is the mega raise. This is why we're not on the same multiples as our peers. Now I know it's hard for you to accept when someone has a different opinion to yours. But on this occasion you've been proven to be wrong. We're not 20p like you said we'd be by Xmas. We're instead anchored to 11p. It's not poo and gas. And yes the Canadian market is under-valued, but not as much as we are.

My last post was to point out how / when debt should be employed to maximize shareholder value. Focus on the content of the position being discussed.