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Have to say I'm thinking the same thing Tony. If not Monday then certainly news next week. Just how good the news will be is yet to be seen, but I cannot think of anything bad being in there.

Reckon there's a good 6 months post documentation being signed before any drilling will take place. So if they get it wrapped up this quarter we're looking at Q3. All good providing poo remains around this level. I'd imagine we'd be in the 20's as the drill bit starts turning. And if we get the 88e lemmings stampeding over here then who knows where the sp will start and end up with a strike. They just need to get the bl@@dy thing sorted.

Understand on Serenity but hoping they believe it could land 'any day' and are holding back their quarterly update as there's no requirement for them to deliver it by a set date. Nice dream I suppose.

Agree the update should be good though. They will have a quarter at full production in a very strong oil / gas environment. I would also expect them to provide an update on Canadian drilling. If 45% of the capital expenditure was planned for Q1 then I'd expect a few wells have started being drilled already. Some detail on this and future Canadian drilling plans would be welcomed. Alongside some updated working (and future plans) for Serenity. And an update on the debt facility. Lots of good news at a time where good news should be rewarded. Really looking forward to next week.

Let's hope there's an update in the next few days Tony. We need some +ve news (AND PR!!!) to get us over the 15p hurdle and closer to £200m Mcap, which is the minimum value that should be ascribed to us in the current environment. I'm hoping the reason they're holding back is related to the f/o given they were pretty consistent in their belief it would be tied up by year-end. With some positive production news, confirmation of wells being drilled in Canada (+ some detail on 2022 plans), and the f/o, then £200m Mcap should be a doddle. I'd even go as far as saying we could get to £250m, which would value us slightly higher than Canadian sector averages. Hopefully some good news on Monday. GLA

Older, can't say I agree with your reasoning. The very modest dividend increase I'm suggesting will be covered +15x over by the huge amount of unencumbered cash at year-end if they don't make another acquisition or go it alone on the f/o. Then you need to consider this doesn't take into account the significant exploration / development budget committed to Canada that will generate an incremental 10% boepd production (oil heavy). So you'll still get your progressive divi from production alone. I just hate seeing cash pile up rather than being put to use to drive up the sp. I'm invested here to make money. By adding a measly £2.25m to the divi it will boost the sp by 3p plus give me extra income. It's so cheap and simple, and an option they should def. pursue. My overall preference for spare cash would be an acquisition on similar metrics to recent ones, but I fear those times are gone and growth will need to come from the drill bit. Boosting the divi and doubling the Canadian exploration / production budget would be next. Going it alone on the f/o is my next preferred option, as it's the only thing that will get us to +30p in the next 12 months. Glad we've all got differing opinions on how to spend all our spare cash - means the business is in great health and there's lots of good sp accretive options. AIMHO GLA

Agreed nomadic. I think we're starting to attract the 'right' kind of investors now we have a guaranteed divi and 7.5% yield (at current sp), coupled with strong near-term value appreciation potential. The traders are slowly being replaced by investors who are happy to wait for a guaranteed +25% value upside over the next 3 months, plus a nice big divi as well. The divi move was excellent - It's one thing that has generated a mini re-rate. So I'd like them to do it again in the next month or so. Another £2.25m will add 20% to the divi (1.26p) and give us a 7% yield at 18p, or 6% at 21p. I believe we'll settle into a sp range that's between 6-7% yield, which is why I think we'll be sitting in the 15-17.5p range come ex-divi (barring any other news). But if we have so much spare cash, and the f/o is going nowhere, then why not force a greater re-rate by giving a little more back to investors...? The modest divi increase would be easily covered by the incremental cash we're generating at current poo and gas. And it would also get the Nuttall's of the world to pay a bit more attention to us. We'd meet some of his investment criteria and at £200m Mcap we'd be big enough for him to include in his analyses moving forward. This sort of thing feeds itself, as coverage from him simply will result in greater gains. Anyway, lots of options for mgt, but it would be good to see them pulling some simple levers that have worked even harder (and sooner rather than later). Now that's enough from me today. GLA

As much as I think Malcy and Oilmanjim aren't worth a dime, they do get a lot of eye-balls reading their blogs. The power of investment influencers these days is quite significant, especially for small caps, which for us has been demonstrated by the impact of Docjones. I'd love to see mgt do an interview with Malcy. And with Oilmanjim for that matter. Scary to think these guys alone could add 1-2p to the sp with some positive words. Even better would be they do an interview with DocJones. The guy has some serious clout with Canadian PIs and has no doubt made a couple of millionaires with his recent stock picks. It would be nice to see him plugging us again. Just 3 influencers on-board and we'll have another £25m on our Mcap. Not too bad for a couple of interviews. Anyway, onwards and upwards.

Quite interesting the sp action over the past few weeks. Most important thing for me is modest buying pressure has put 4p on our sp. Crazy to think we were 10.3p just before Xmas. The committed divi obviously helped things, alongside the incredible strength in poo. But the fact that we haven't had a single day with volume above 5m in that time-frame and moved 40% says a lot about the price that PIs now need in order to sell. The question I'm asking myself is whether the mega-raise over-hang cleared...? I'm starting to think it may have. And, there really couldn't be a better time than now to drop something big into the market. GLA

So the UK government is helping to create an unstable environment in the O&G industry for potential investors when poo and gas are approaching record highs that are likely to remain for the next few years. And, where energy security in Western Europe is as important now as it was in the Cold War. Pretty much sums up the dithering muppets we have in power. They should be providing permits and giving those new entrants confidence that if approved now it will be approved in future. This will also put some pressure on all groups to come to an agreement in the near future that will impact permits from the point the agreement comes into place. So keep everything moving forward, which will pressure all stakeholders to come to an environmental agreement quickly. Instead everything sits in an undefined grey zone where it's difficult to make any important decisions until clarity is provided. And we all know how long these things can take if there's no incentive to get the job done.

Out of interest, do we know the permit status of our acreage and Repsol Sinopec next door? Makes sense they're pushing the FID back to Q3 given all the regulatory guidance that is SUPPOSED to be released in H1. UK gov are absolute f@cking clowns. Add this economic 'own goal' to Brexit and the country is going to be completely screwed in 10 years time. So many sectors have been gutted in the last 2 years and the public aren't even aware of what's happening because Covid has taken all the headlines. When the dust settles the UK economy is going to wake up in the early 80's, except this time the bounce back will take a decade (if we're lucky).

Nice to see continuing strength in our sp. I have been saying that I think we'll settle above 15p on the divi alone in a couple of months. Perhaps this is the start of the re-rate... GLA

Would love to see some volume into a close above 13.7p. This would indicate (to me) that we're about to go on a run, whilst building higher lows. We're operating off significantly more production, stronger oil and gas prices, soon to start drilling Canada, and we're paying a 1.05p guaranteed divi. We just need something else to light the blue touch paper and we're off to the races. Hopefully next week something on the debt facility or f/o (or both). Have a great w/e all.

I'm frustrated as much as the next person on the f/o, but more than happy to wait a couple of weeks if they're putting finishing touches on an agreement. If however we're still waiting at month end, and we're still in the same place, they should absolutely provide an update on progress and new guidance. Updates on Q4 production, Canadian exploration / expansion, and the debt facility should also be included so the overall result is positive regardless of what's happening with the f/o.

A few days ago someone asked if the base was in. I had my doubts due to the lack of volume above 13p in recent history. I'm not so sure now as the past couple of days have seen some decent movements on quite low volume, which suggests that many PIs could have solidified their position. We've had just a few hundred k buying pressure on both days and we're now sitting above 13.5p. Also says a lot about what's likely to happen when we get a big piece of news. Good thing is every week that goes by is bolstering our cash position, a step closer to a debt facility, Canadian results, a decision on the Nth Sea, and of course the ex-divi. Really hoping they stun us with something like a debt funded acquisition for +5kboepd. It's the sort of thing that will add 50% in a day, and when combined with any other good news, should easily rocket us past 20p. It's starting to get exciting! AIMHO GLA

Hi Spike, I'm not sure if it was or wasn't a purely commercial decision for Shell. But you have to keep in mind the Shells and BPs of the world are super-majors who are also European. This means they're going to get a lot more societal and investor pressure than state owned entities e.g. Aramco, or US majors for that matter (for now). So even if the financials were marginally positive, it's unsurprising they pulled the plug. They've got plenty of super fields they can pour money into that will deliver better results and less backlash due to where they're situated. But this isn't the same for smaller players or majors from other countries e.g. Repsol Sinopec. If these companies want to develop a commercial field in the Nth sea they'll go ahead and ignore the noise. Especially given the gov.t and OGA are supportive of them doing so. Do you think a Chinese state entity gives a **** what UK environmentalists think? Do any of us as investors (owners) of i3e care? The world needs oil. The UK needs it even more. So for now it's a good thing providing we're still pushing over the longer term to be net zero. This field is 15 years of production. And if they find more than 50m barrels it will absolutely be economic due to the existing infrastructure. Can only be a good thing. And the sp will respond accordingly if they announce we're going it alone. We get to assign value (potentially huge) to the field and it this rate will be net debt neutral by end of year if oil and gas prices stay near these levels. It's basically a free run at hundreds of millions of Brent, which for the next few years are going to be worth north of $75 per barrel. Trust me the market will respond favorably.

So my advice is if you sell, make sure it's for nothing less than 18p, which is where I think the sp will settle before the run-up to drilling. Personally, I just want them to hurry the f@ck up and make a call one way or another. We're into mid-January now so an update has to be on the 2-week horizon given what they were saying throughout Q4. I don't care if they say it has been delayed and provide new guidance, however I do care if they say nothing. That would be poor investor comms, and I'm hoping they've learnt lessons in this space. Anyway, easy money for us right now. AIMHO GLA

Understand what you're saying spike, but my view is the gov.t and OGA have been pretty clear the Nth Sea is critical to our energy security, so I don't see any issues with them. I'd go as far as saying they will be fully supportive of the next field being licensed for production just to reaffirm their communicated stance. People need to remember is wasn't the gov.t or OGA that pulled the plug on Cambo. They were supportive of the field being developed. And with current poo it's only going to make it easier for them to license fields to be developed because the risk of not having national energy security is far too great as anyone can see right now.

As for them going it alone, I think you need to keep in mind the cost to drill 3 wells in the Nth Sea is roughly the same as our expected unencumbered cash at year end. We'll still be producing +20kboepd, and have all the Canadian upside. Plus a guaranteed divi. So hardly a risky bet or speculative stock when you have that amount of production and cash generation with very little debt. The upside however is huge. And we've already made a discovery. The Minos High is the wildcat. Having said this, it's part of a known / producing oil system so hardly a 'Hail Mary'. Imo the risk is worth the reward. And as you've said, it's valued at nothing right now. By drilling the assets it will assign value to them. And if they miss everything then we go back down to our current sp as worst. If they strike +50m recoverable and we still own 100% of the assets then you can expect us to be in the 30's. It's a low risk move from here. So I'd like them to go for it this year, with or without our time wasting partner(s). Just to be clear a f/o is my preferred option, but not if we're still going to be talking about it in another 6 months. AIMHO GLA

Spike, I don't think you'll have any trouble selling your shares if they decide to go it alone.

Tony, who's the birdy? And what do you make of the FID being pushed back to Q3?

Not sure they've ever intimated they would go it alone nomadic. I certainly would like them to state this if the f/o partner is still f@cking us around after 12 months though. Far better to draw a line, push ahead, and generate value from these assets.

Nice to see +4m volume today. The total value of shares traded today hasn't been seen since October. All good for building a higher base, and hopefully the start of some +ve momentum before a news rich period. And if the big one lands (f/o) I can see us banging on £200m Mcap in the blink of an eye. Surely it can't be far off given the noises they were making throughout Q4...

Nice to see a bit more +ve volume today. Incredible that we're only moving 5% on poo and gas that are near 10 year highs. Especially when one considers the guaranteed divi (currently 8% yield), and the many other news items that can push the sp significantly higher (Nth Sea (f/o or alone), debt facility, increased Canadian exploration / production, increased divi or share buy-back). Hopefully we'll hear about a few of the above drivers in the coming weeks, especially the f/o. GLA

Yep a 10% buyback would work quite well. Reckon it would give us 20% almost instantly and a higher base in the run up to ex-divi where I'd expect us to settle around 18p. It's expensive though, whereas a couple of £m on the guaranteed divi would work just as well. I'm hoping the reason they haven't done this already is because they need the cash to fund our share of the Nth Sea exploration / appraisal (or the whole thing). I wasn't expecting a Q4 production update - is everyone else expecting this by the end of the month? Good time to provide Q4 results and H2 guidance, 2022 plans, update on Nth Sea f/o, update on loan progress, and perhaps even announce a buy-back or increase to the divi if the Nth Sea is no further ahead. Lots of options. I just hope they go after some of them and we don't have another month or two of silence. There's a lot of things in their control that can add value to the company. AIMHO

Wish I could say yes DOPW but I wouldn't count on it. There isn't a huge amount of volume at / above this level, which means we could drop back to the 11-12p range. Really depends on whether mgt provide us with any +ve news in the next couple of weeks. Retail investors are moving the needle at the moment and they need news to stop them from chasing rainbows. Issue with being under the radar of so many investors, and why they need to get something big into the market for us to properly re-rate and stay there, which imo can only be achieved by the f/o or a debt funded acquisition on similar terms to the recent one. A few bad days for poo and we'll be back to 11-12p fairly quickly. Sadly we don't move when the prices go up - issue of the wider AIM market not knowing us, but those that do know us (holders) will sell when prices go down. You can see this when the wider mkt hears some positive PR in a large publication - the wider market becomes aware and suddenly we move 10-20%. Another example is from Doc Jones and his followers starting the first rally. This is positive in the sense it doesn't take a lot of new investors to shift the sp by quite a bit, but we need to get their attention first. Either way I wouldn't worry as I'm quite certain (barring a massive poo / gas crash) that we'll be +15p in the run up to divi. This is 12 weeks from now, but not a long time to see 25% value creation and a wonderful divi to boot if you're buying a little earlier (like now).

Thanks for the numbers Tony. Again they illustrate the market simply doesn't know us well enough. Hopefully something big soon.

AIMHO GLA

Your thoughts are similar to mine Older. Most of my AIM portfolio is in here at the moment for the very reasons you've outlined. The rest is in battery metals (Copper / Graphite) or gold stocks.

My view is if they cannot sort the f/o, and are unwilling to go it alone, then sell the assets, double the guaranteed divi and plough the rest of it into Canadian appraisal / development. I'd hate to see us offload the assets, but I'd hate it a whole lot more if we're still sitting on them in 6 months time and no closer to monetizing them one way or another. Time for them to make a call on these assets. Who knows, maybe Monday the long awaited rns will drop :) Have a good w/e folks.

If that's the case Older the entire industry is f@cked. Either banks and investment funds back O&G for the next 5-10 years or the prices of these commodities will explode and potentially stall the energy transition. It will also make us beholden to countries that you really don't want to rely on. Almost every major oil producing country in the world is run by evil c@nts so energy security is a very real thing for a western democracy. And given the way things have been going lately in a lot of these countries it's going to be even more important in the near future.

Imo I don't think we're anywhere near the point where money is hard to come by for the industry, but this could of course be quite different in 5-10 years time. This is all the more reason for us to get our skates on and explore / appraise the area and start production asap. I'd imagine it will take at least 2-3 years post appraisal to have oil flowing so if they keep delaying things it may be harder to secure financing to expand field production (assuming it's a large field) in later stages of development.

Either way they need to announce the f/o this month, or provide an update on where things stand with new guidance. When guidance hasn't come to fruition investors prefer (and trust) a mgt team that communicates with them, rather than going silent. It's simply good investor relations, and shows respect to the people who own the company. AIMHO GLA