Member Info for G_G_G

Thanks Tony. It's great how you pull together these workings. Even better is we've had 1 month of 'Case 1'. I personally don't expect gas to stay at the US$3.50 levels for the remainder of the year, but oil could well stay above $85. Do you know the average CF multiple for Canadian O&G?

TSSZ please tell me you're joking with that last post...?

Bushy, what exactly are you trying to say other than your auntie has balls. The fact is the pog could drop to $1500, 1600, or even back down to 1200 like it did after the banking crisis surprising many. None of us know how it will play out. But if you have a company that never hits guidance (even when it's downgraded to cr@p), then you don't have much room to manoeuvre.

Bottom line, FY 2022 guidance is a bag of d!cks with a high likelihood of being worse. And the first two quarters are going to look like the quarter that has just been - a bag of d!cks with **** all over them. They've said as much in the annual guidance. At the moment this company is priced at fair value given it's currently loss making and near-future guidance spells out more of the same. No-one will value it higher until the past is erased with better performance moving forward, which won't happen until H2 at the earliest (if at all). Sorry but it's pretty clear to anyone not emotionally attached to this stock. Shame because it would be 3-4x current value with better mgt. As mentioned previously, I've dropped in here a couple of times and made some nice 10% trades, but always sold just before a DB special arrived. Just luck that saved me, nothing else. Until the trust fund baby steps aside this is always going to be a high risk investment.

No surprises really. They were always going to be mining at a loss in Q4 given the annual guidance provided was so pitiful. The question is whether they are able to mine at sub $1500 AISC at Yan moving forward.

FY 2022 guidance is 87-97k and $1300-1450, which is unbelievably poor, especially when you consider that DB has never hit guidance and would appear to just make things up as each year progresses. And now they have just broken $1800 AISC! But let's say DB does manage to hit guidance for once and ask the following:

- What happens if gold drops back below $1500? Best to keep in mind that historically speaking this wouldn't be all that bad.
- What happens if another 'dog ate my homework' or external issue arises e.g. another wall collapses, ball mill breaks, contractor continues to perform poorly due to any number of issues, country trade sanctions bite etc.?
- What happens if civil / Islamist unrest occurs again but for longer...?

That's quite a long list of issues to consider that have happened in the recent past.

Just briefly looking at the 2022 numbers one can see the lower end annual production is in-line with the disaster that is 2021. And given they've stated production will be back weighted to H2 2022, it's obvious that Q1 is going to be similar to the quarter that has just been (providing nothing else goes wrong and it gets worse). In other words, they will be mining at / around $1800 AISC for another entire quarter. Then you have Q2, which will look similar, but not quite as bad so long as nothing else goes wrong. But if the gold price drops by just 10% in the next 6 months the sad reality is the company will be adding $m's in debt every quarter. That is, mining tens of thousands of ounces and selling them at a multi-million dollar loss!

Way too much risk here with DB in charge. I'm going to sit it out for a few months to see where the pog is going before coming anywhere near this cluster-f@ck. As I've said before, I f@cking hate trust fund babies. I'd rather daddy gave them a back room job and kept them far away from anything that can mess up other people's lives. Sorry for your losses here fellas. I do hope things turn around but reality is Q1 will be as bad as Q4. And the only +ve news in the next 6 months will be drill intercepts and the occasional rns saying some equipment has arrived at Kouroussa. I also wouldn't count on Dugbe DFS arriving until H2. Anyone who has invested in resources for long enough knows they never arrive on time. In fact 3 months late would be a huge success. I'll let you all know if/when I've bought. I tend to go hard into stocks, but as cheap as this looks at the moment, there's a lot that can go wrong and the only major thing that can go right in the next 3-6 months is DB resigns. AIMHO GLA (you're going to need it)

Only if they release some f@cking news and remind people of all our selling points fellas. We need Q4 production, plus an update on the 2022 Canadian exploration / development plans at a minimum. They should also provide an update on the Nth Sea f/o and loan facility. No-one will mind if these are no closer to being finalized as the whole market will be focused on how much we're producing, and what it means financially. Having said this, it would be good to understand their plans for the Nth Sea should the f/o agreement continue to drag on. With a solid update I think 15p will be a thing of the past. But they need to give the market a bl@@dy update first. I have no idea what they're waiting for, but can only hope the reason is the f/o is very close to being agreed. And even then, I'd say it's better to put the f/o (or loan) in a separate RNS after the Q4 production and Canadian development plans have been released.

Big one for us is AECO gas price, which is CAD$4.50 and well ahead of the numbers they've used in their financial forecast models. Of course having WTI at +$85 doesn't hurt either, especially when you're drilling oil heavy wells. UPDATES NEEDED!

Let's hope we get an update tomorrow. Have to say I'm going to be pretty p!ssed off if I'm still saying this in another week. GLA

When I said 'bull market' I hadn't looked at today's oil and gas prices. Seriously, wtf is happening (or not happening) with our sp...? Bod need to get out there and start telling investors about what they're doing. Absolute f@cking madness to remain quiet in this environment when there's so many great things to tell the market, and address some of lingering 'confidence in mgt' issues that may exist. Monday morning rns needs to drop.

Facts are we're in a O&G bull market and we're nowhere near our peers on valuation. That can be explained to some extent by the mega-raise - hopefully everyone has now acknowledged the impact of it. But the slow climb we're now on doesn't need to be so slow. They need to start getting investor attention, and they can start by talking about how much we're producing, and plans to drive value in the near future. They've done a great turnaround job, and to my mind have made all the right decisions of late. But they need to start telling people about these things and our prospects. Anyway, hopefully an update accompanied by some interviews next week. GLA

Ragtrade, who is this ex Fin Director of Amazon, FB..., Cambridge Blue etc.?

Madgpol, I agree it's their job to update shareholders on material things. However I'd argue that Q4 production including previously drilled well performance, 2022 Canadian exploration / expansion progress and future plans, f/o and loan updates are material, wouldn't you?

I'd also say it's part of their job to update their shareholders (company owners) on progress. They may not like it, but they're paid ****load of money to do such things, not to mention the cheap options they award themselves. So I'm expecting an update on Monday and will be disappointed if we don't receive one given the number of 'material' things that are outstanding. GLA

Apro, take the long list of positives and then counter it with a gold price of $1600 plus retaining the trust fund baby ceo. The company has staggered from one disaster to the next for a couple of years now. The only thing that has saved the company is the gold price, otherwise it would be bankrupt. Having said all this, it's valued at a ridiculously low level, even with having a f@ck up like DB in charge.

Bushy that's the AISC and production for the year. You need to think about how high Q4 AISC must be to drag the average up to that level. Bottom line, there's no way they have been mining the last quarter of 2021 at a profit. Sadly I can't jump in here yet as I need another company to do its thing. But Q4 will make for very heavy reading. Dan needs to go, but unfortunately Daddy has junior's back here. As I've said before, I f@cking hate trust fund babies.

Nope pretty sure they sold. Makes no difference, the number of shares sold (or bought) is negligible.

What I will say is the company had better be preparing to drop an rns on Monday with an update on the myriad of things that we as shareholders (owners) should be across. There's no point Graham and Majid regularly saying how we're under-valued if they're not doing enough to prove to the market just how under-valued we happen to be. They've done a lot of great things in the past 18 months. Truly spectacular turn-around by these guys. But they need to do better on regularly PR'ing their wins, both big and small. Let's hope Monday is the day the market starts to realize how they've been sleeping on i3e. GLA

In theory gold_hum you're correct, but you must agree their forward guidance isn't worth ****. They have under-performed on so many occasions that only results will make a difference to the sp, as their words are now worthless. Investors will need proof that Yanofila AISC can be brought back down to $1300 or less. The Kouroussa mine will add value as it gets developed, but it wont be anywhere near fair value because the market will be expecting DB to f@ck things up there as well. It will need to be built on time and budget, with at least one set of results proving they can get AISC to projected levels.

Having said all this I do agree that £50m has to be the bottom. It just gets silly after this. If I can free up funds in the near future then I'll add here simply because I think a ret@rd couldn't make things any worse. GLA

The performance of this company is truly appalling. I've been in and out of HUM over the years and to be honest have been plain lucky in making money. Mali disturbances have always been an issue. However the Mcap is hovering at £50m not for these reasons, but for the number of mistakes and oversights by mgt over the years. The next quarter is going to look disastrous. I don't think people realize that Hum will have been mining at a loss in Q4, which is all the more pathetic given POG has been hovering at US$1800!!! And does anyone seriously believe the reasons for the huge drop? Does the limited Mali unrest really explain missing annual guidance by such a huge amount...? There's no point talking about potential if a company cannot make money in a near record high gold environment. Dan Betts is simply another unqualified trust fund baby. He's been given a shiny toy by Daddy who no doubt thought junior wouldn't be unable to f@ck things up. But Daddy has obviously underestimated just how useless junior happens to be. The guy needs to step down. Put a qualified ceo in charge and this company will fly. Leave junior in charge and it will continue to underperform and disappoint. He's had enough time to show he's not up to the job. I may come back again after the Q4 results, which junior will no doubt try to soften with some more great (overdue / held back) drill results. Really goes to show how the guy operates. He can't run a business and has been surviving on luck with POG and exploration. Imagine if POG was still nearer $1300. The company would be bankrupt. People need to take these things into consideration as another CEO who knows what they're doing would have delivered an Mcap of £150m with Yanofila. Junior survives because Daddy has his back. Any other company and he would have been fired years ago. Jesus I can't stand trust fund babies. To be clear if they can get things right at Yanofila (AISC below $1300) this will be 3-5x current value in 18 months. But that of course relies on mgt doing their bl@@dy job. I'll let you know if / when I'm back in. GLA

I couldn't agree more Austin. There's plenty to update the market on wrt Q4 operations / production, previously drilled well performance, 2022 Canadian exploration / expansion progress and future plans. These are all very positive. They should also provide an update on the f/o given we're 1 month past their previous guidance. And they should provide progress on the loan facility. It's simply good investor relations and comms to keep the market abreast of goings on. As much as i3e have been known to drop a midday rns, they've also been known to treat us like mushrooms. They have the perfect opportunity to land a lot of good news stories in a booming macro environment and completely transform even the most cynical person's view of the company. I personally don't care what day or time they provide an update, but I do care if we don't have one by the end of the month, which means a Monday rns at latest. This is simply good mgt and shows they're on top of everything. Fwiw I do believe we'll get the update by then. And I do believe it will be a very good one. AIMHO GLA

Thanks Risk, you've answered all my questions in one. So there's less than £1m in CLNs given some have already been converted. And there's circa £2m worth of warrants to be converted. So maximum possible dilution of less than 5%. Good.

Last question, what's people's thoughts on a near-term raise? Reasons would e great to hear if you believe one could be on the cards. From what I can tell it's unlikely given production and cash will soon start ramping up, but would like to understand if I'm missing anything. Sorry been keeping a very occasional eye on this stock, but looks promising.

Hi guys, can someone confirm the last raise done by TGR? I've seen the one for £10m in April, has there been another? Also, does anyone know how many CLNs and Warrants are outstanding? Thanks

We need to release some production results and provide an update on Canadian expansion so the market can value us accordingly. Without some clarity we'll be dragged down by general market sentiment, which is what we've been seeing the past week. Poo and gas are highly supportive, but only if the market can clearly see that you're making a ton of cash. I'm hoping they're not going to drag their feet and release news next week, otherwise we could be back in the 12's trying to reclaim the 14's, rather than pushing yearly highs. I also believe that if we have multiple good news items it's far better to release them separately. People may miss / ignore a single rns, but they rarely do so with 2 or 3 in relatively quick succession. This normally results in the sp going further with more people paying attention and buying over time, ultimately creating a higher / stronger base. AIMHO GLA

Some good news for Nth Sea O&G operators

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/381309/ithaca-energy-regulator-abigail/

Our turn next...?