Member Info for G_G_G

Still as optimistic as ever I see CF, even when the sp has fallen to tenths of a penny. Had a read of ChrisHutch's last message that pretty much sums up my feeling toward the bod and trust fund baby ceo. Trust fund babies often come out on top in life due to having a massive head start, safety net and daddy's money always opening doors. So it takes a truly special one to f@ck things up like Hanno has here. I've had a couple of losses in my investing career, but never have I lost and learnt so much than nccl. The biggest lesson, don't put your money where an undeserving trust fund baby runs the company. Thankfully other investments have made up for my losses many times here. The thing that hurts the most is the number of times I told myself that Hanno isn't up to the job, but kept my money here all the same. Had I spread the £120k over my other investments I'd have over £400k more in the bank right now. Crazy how some decisions can impact your wealth. Sadly I don't have daddy's money to bail me out so my mistakes tend to hurt a lot more than Hanno's. I wonder where he will pop up next...

10m volume gone today. It's not just about volume, but the value of the volume as well.

They really need to drop an rns outlining Q4 production and an update on Canadian exploration / development, f/o, and loan facility in the next day or so. All these delays threaten to take the wind out of our sails, rather than push us forward at a rate of knots. Even better would be mgt surprise the market with an upgrade to the divi as we approach ex-divi date. Just 20% (£2.25m) and I can see us at 25p. It costs nothing, we have plenty of unallocated free cash, and combined with it being a guaranteed monthly payment it will add an easy £50m to our mcap. Otherwise announce we're going it alone in the Nth Sea and use the money to help pay for the 2 x wells required to appraise our acreage. The second the company states this is their intention then just watch the f/o partner f@cking us around find the cash and harass us for the documentation to be signed. No more waiting, they just need to get on with it. Either that or boost the divi now, add some more wells in Canada, and state the Nth Sea is there for a partner who is serious. Perfect time to drop a few rns over the next couple of weeks and send us to a
+£250m Mcap (+22.5p). Hopefully tomorrow is the day we get the first one. GLA

Some great action today. Few things worth noting, the first and most important is we've broken 7m volume and it is only 10.30am. We could be hit +15m at +18p, which has only been done value wise when news had been bad.

The question for me is who is driving this volume...? Is it the herd finally waking up to this stock? Or do we have an IIs taking a stake for the guaranteed dividend. If you're buying now you're effectively getting 1.05p over 10 months, before they announce the 2023 divi. There's also the likelihood of an upgrade. Quite a payout every month for a stock that's also likely to give you +50% value appreciation in the next 6 months.

There is of course one other thing that makes me both nervous and excited. The last time we had this type of increase was the run-up to the last acquisition and mass dilution event. The reason for this was our IIs stopped trading while the details of the capital raise were being thrashed out with the pr!cks. Now Majid and Graham are on record saying they wont do this again so I'm trusting this is the case. But I'm starting to think it could be another case of the IIs having stopped trading in the run up to news, which is why the price is quickly correcting. Could be a loan backed acquisition. Could be the f/o. Or as mentioned it could be nothing other than IIs and PIs getting in on the guaranteed monthly income and strong value proposition. Either way things are looking very good.

Would be good to get that overdue update!!! GLA

Worth keeping in mind that income hunters are getting 1/10th of the full year dividend payout per month until the end of the year. In other words they get .105p from March, rather than .0875p per month if it was paid monthly from January. Makes a difference and perhaps why we've seen a lot more strength in the sp since the announcement. And then there's the almost nailed on additional short-term upside of:

1. Increased Canadian production
2. Increased poo and gas
3. Increased fcf from above 2 points
4. Increased dividend payout (or share-buybacks) from point 3
5. Canadian acreage exploration / appraisal upside

All of the above points are worth at least 10p and a very high probability of happening. Then there's the blue-sky upside from:

6. Nth Sea exploration / appraisal
7. Canadian f/o
8. Debt funded acquisition

These last 3 points have a decent level of probability of happening this year, especially point 6 where we could f/o, or easily fund a 2-well program ourselves if still being f@cked around by our potential partner. All of the last points can put double digits onto our likely 6 month target of 25-30p. Point 6 I believe will take us beyond 30p when the drill starts turning. Where it takes us from that level will rely on what we find, but with +$100 Brent and +50m recoverable barrels it's not a stretch to start thinking of 50p. We just need it to happen this year as there's never been a more opportune time to go after it again. Anyway, I'm looking forward to some news this week. GLA

Seriously Tony? Surely you are kidding? I said it would take 6 months to clear the over-hang and it would be a long, low gradient climb to the 20's just like the last time (where you were also wrong). You debated otherwise and kept talking about the underlying value of the deal and we'd be 20p in a matter of weeks. How long did it take to break 15p? Has it been a long, low gradient climb over the past 6 months...? Are we even at 20p now? Has poo and gas exploded...? As Flabby has pointed out, imagine if we had some debt and little to no dilution. The debt would be paid off by the end of the year, and they could still afford to pay the divi. Except there would be a lot less shares in issue and we'd be sitting on 25-30p right now. Absolutely ridiculous statement.

Wow is right on Canada. Good volume as well. People taking a position on news? Maybe a fund...?? Or maybe it's simply the trading has stopped and hands have become more sticky due to the divi announcement. Either way we're hurtling toward fair value. As a reminder we have a 5% yield at 21p. Can we get there in the next couple of weeks...?

Correction, I lost close to £70k on nccl. Agree to disagree on production timelines, but if it has taken 18 months to negotiate the f/o then 5 years isn't a long time til production. To be honest I think we may get bought out if we prove up +100m barrels. Perhaps even by Repsol Sinopec if indeed they are the f/o partner.

Tony, no I don't think it will create a gold rush, but equally they are small caps and modest buying pressure pushes them up by 10% quite easily. As for nccl, I don't think me clearly and regularly stating it was a binary bet (and losing £50k) means I owe the board anything. Those who followed me into HZM, ARS and more recently RMM when I'd entered and exited would have made 50-200% returns. And I do think this will happen in the graphite space on these small caps. For now my biggest holding by a distance is i3e (@4.75m shares). And as I've said previously I'll be up-front about my position whenever it changes here. For now I'm holding strong and not even contemplating trading due to the news rich period we're about to enter, and because the divi is too good to turn down. GLA

Tony, I have two graphite names but don't really want to say too much at the moment as I'm still building my stakes. As for valuations, yes at current poo then +50p when in development @ +10kboepd x 50% would be an easy valuation. But that's 5 years away at the earliest, and a lot of money that will need to be paid down. I can however see 50p on discovery / appraisal of +100m recoverable and we retain 50%. That would be my hope, but I certainly won't be hanging around for development. We need to get the bl@@dy f/o sorted first though. Wonderful week. Let's hope for all the overdue production, development, f/o and loan updates next week, and the ex-divi date the following. Can see us at 18-20p if we get them all in the next 2 weeks. But the f/o, well that is what makes me wake up to check my phone every morning at the moment.

Not sure I'd go that far Ark. I agree if they hit +100m recoverable barrels and we retain 50% then we're likely get to near 50p, but don't see the f/o announcement taking us past £300m Mcap (27p). It could however get there in the run-up to drilling with some of the 88e lemmings running in this direction. I think we'll need a commercial discovery to get into the 30's though. Nice to dream as 50p will make me a multi-millionaire on this stock alone. GLA

I'd add nickel and graphite to that list Tony. Huge battery components, and of course nickel is key to steel making, which will increase as economies try to build their way out of the coming recession.

Agree on the multiples point Tony. Also good to know where we sit versus the portfolio recommended by the Canadian sector guru. Some good news next week followed by ex-divi date announcement and we may just break £200m mcap. Hoping we then find a new channel in the 18-20p range and the business starts updating us a little more regularly on progress across a number of fronts. And if the f/o drops with drilling scheduled for Q3 then sit back and watch the fireworks.

New 12 month high!!! We may just get to a £200m Mcap in the run-up to ex-divi, and even then we'd still be under-valued against peers wiht a lot more debt and far less prospects. Really hoping mgt have another rns for us on Monday that outlines production, Canadian development / expansion and an update on the f/o and loan facility. If the f/o drops in the coming weeks then I think 20's will be the new norm. I also think the divi will be increased if commodity prices are within 10% of current range of current values for the remainder of the year. We're simply not drilling enough to spend all the spare cash being generated so an increase of £2.25m would be very easy to provide and would put us on a 6% yield at 21p. In other words it's very easy to boost the sp from here. Really great to see the re-rate finally happening. GLA

Can't understand why we're bouncing in this 15.2-15.4 range - It's of no historical / resistance or mcap / yield etc. significance from what I can tell. Response has been +ve but not as much as I had expected. Hopefully a great production / development / f/o update on Monday to go with today's rns and we create a new higher range and base. Announcement of the first ex-divi will most likely provide a boost as well. Until next week then. GLA

So I could have received 50% of 1.05p in April & October, or I get 10% of 1.05p each month from March. I like the idea of monthly dividends, but would have preferred they did this after the April half-yearly divi.

Either way it's a good move for the future. Moving forward I'd like to see them increase the divi from H2 in-line with significantly higher commodity prices and fcf. And in the very near term I'd like to hear some detailed news on Q4 production, an update on H2 2021 & FY 2022 Canadian exploration / development, an update on the Nth Sea f/o (with new timings), and an update on the debt facility. Hopefully all of these things will arrive in the next week or so as they're overdue. Good move by these guys but they need to give the market a lot of important information for us to re-rate nearer to 20p. GLA

Just to re-surface my earlier question as I'm quite confused how the monthly divi will work.

They mentioned last year a guaranteed pay-out in 2022 of 1.05p. I took this to mean the divi for H2 2021 plus H1 2022 (given 6 months divi payments). And it was to be split evenly. All good and easy to understand.

Maybe I'm being thick but I can't work out how the payment for H2 2021 is going to be released. I'm all for monthly payments, but I was expecting a bl@@dy big lump sum in April for H2 2021. Surely it would have been better to do this after the April divi for H2 2021...? Totally confused on what to expect.

These guys are quite clever in the way they approach things. Echo many of the things said on here. I agree it will decrease trading and likely create a steady increase to the sp with monthly divi reinvestment, rather than the tops and troughs after a 6 monthly pay-out. I do expect us to sit in a 6-6.5% yield channel though. I also like how an increase to the divi in future months will have an immediate and solidified uplift on the sp, which I'm hoping is their plan if poo and gas remain near these levels.

Someone asked earlier - are we expecting a divi for H2 2020 plus the first 2 months of this year combined...? I can't quite work out what to expect in March - thoughts?

Either way, I'm expecting us to settle around 16-17p (6-6.5% yield) and move higher with improved Canadian exploration / production results. Another £2.25m (20%) on the divi and we'll be 18-20p and so on. The f/o or news we're going it alone I'd expect will take us to 25p in an instant. Hope this is the plan. Very easy to execute with all the extra cash being generated. GLA

Good point Canetoad, but don't think it would stop him taking 30p. He'd receive multiples of what he invested plus the usual fattened on-going salary when these things occur. I imagine with all the options floating around he'd have +15m shares to cash-in.

I asked earlier whether people are expecting a Q4 update? And if so when (and why). Reason being I have a feeling it was mentioned they would be moving to 1/2 yearly updates in an interview, but can't be sure. Anyone have a pov on this...?

Thanks Older. Does make me ponder whether the plan could be to take us private...? Could explain the lack of effort by the bod to drive the sp higher...

Also, is everyone expecting a Q4 update? I thought they had mentioned they would be moving to 1/2 yearly updates in an interview, but truly hope I'm wrong. They normally throw the market something every month and it's now over 1.5 months since we heard anything.