Member Info for G_G_G

Canada closed on 20p yesterday. It would be good for us to close the gap today. Tomorrow is the last day for the divi as well. Wondering whether we get a nice little bump leading into this. Some production or dare I say f/o news would be welcomed as well.

MMgames, you sir are a genius. Genius!

Will be interesting to see if we strengthen into close like the past few weeks, and any after hours trades. I think if we close above 19.5p then it's a very good result based on the ugliness in the broader market. It's also looking like £1m will change hands, which only reinforces the base that has been building the past week. Hoping for the production rns on Thursday morning, just to remind everyone of how much cash is being generated and to counter any ex-divi sell off. The dream of course is for the f/o to land in the next few days. Now that really would be something. GLA

Yep. Need to keep in mind we still offer a 5% yield at 21p. But as I've said before, the monthly payments are 1/10th of the guaranteed dividend pot and not 1/12th. So new investors are getting more of the annual dividend with every ex-divi date that passes. And that doesn't take into account the almost guaranteed upgrade to the divi at some point in the near future if commodity prices hold near these levels. Or the production increases in the next couple of months. Or the f/o. Or a potential debt funded acquisition. The list goes on. Lots of value and income to be had here.

It's also crazy to think that we need to add 9p to our current sp to reach the same mcap as 88e. A company that produces nothing and is a perennial failure with the drill bit. I noticed it just diluted shareholders today (again) to chase more rainbows in Alaska. Absolute joke company only exceeded by its neighbor PANR. If the market places a value of £320m on a non-producing money pit like 88e after another capital raise, what are we worth...? AIMHO GLA

Looks like an ugly day across the markets so don't read too much into the lack of momentum here (for now). Often what happens with these things is there will be an up/down pattern early doors until a rise into close. You see it often when good drill results are released. Just needs the flippers to do their thing. And if we don't break 20p fear not, the ex-divi and Q4 results should push us past this level by end of week. I'm expecting a 1-2p rise into Thursday.

We've just had 3.5m volume broken before the opening bell has even sounded. Given ex-divi is Thursday I'm expecting this to take us into the 20's. And we still have Q4 production, plus other updates in the coming days / weeks. If the f/o drops into this frenzy I think we'll soon be talking about 30p. GLA

Somewhat surprised by the lack of commenting on that wonderful write up in the FT...

For any new investors visiting the board in the comings days there's a few more things than the 5.5% yield worth knowing, namely:

1. We're undervalued against Canadian peers on key financial multiples such as NOI and cf. If valued in line with the average we should be in the 25-27p range i.e. 35-50% upside
2. Incremental production this year should add an extra 10-15% oil weighted barrels. So increase 'fair value' by another 5p before year end, making 30-32p.
3. Cash pile at year end will be significant. This can be used to increase divis, share buy-backs, expand production in Canada or a combination of all 3 - we will have that much cash lying around. Finally it could be used to drill high impact appraisal / exploration wells in our Nth Sea acreage where a discovery has already been made. An increase to the divi by just £2.25m would mean a 5% yield at 26p. This alone could be paid in pocket change.
4. F/o upside is quite significant. This was meant to be finalised at year-end. Deal appears to still be on the table given we haven't heard anything to the contrary. On agreement this could immediately add 5p to the sp (depending on the deal), and continue to increase to when drills start turning in the Nth Sea. I'd estimate at least 10p before any results are published. Reason being, the targeted recoverable barrels is estimated to be in the hundreds of millions (Brent) with a huge amount of existing, under-utilised infrastructure nearby.
5. Commodity prices. Our end year cash position is set against far lower values than current and forward consensus poo and gas. We're a money printing machine in $US at AECO$2.60 gas and WTI$65 oil. Right now the coffers are filling and can be used for any of the things listed above.

In summary, there's a hell of a lot more value in the sp to add to the already significant monthly income proposition. The current divi is also expected to be increased if commodity prices remain anywhere near these levels throughout the year. Finally, at a macro level, oil and gas are great hedges for inflation - historically better than gold. And if war is to break out in the Ukraine, which I pray to god it won't, these commodities will only increase in price. It's a horrible thing to say, but oil and gas are also a hedge against conflict in this part of the world.

Guaranteed 1 week to 3 months sp drivers include:
1. Q4 production inc. revised 2022 outlook
2. 1st monthly ex-divi
3. 2022 Canadian development / production update
4. Confirmation of Nth Sea f/o (or going it alone)

Expected 3-9 month sp drivers:
1. Divi increase
2. More results from current 2022 Canadian development program
3. Expansion of Canadian development program
4. Nth Sea appraisal / exploration wells

In other words, there's a lot of reasons to believe we can 2-3 bag this year, especially with success in the Nth Sea. AIMHO GLA

Yes Ecuagold, but as we've seen a decent dividend does wonders for the sp. I've been saying for some time that I'd like to see them add £2.25m (20%) to the current divi. This is peanuts versus the cash we are currently throwing off. To put into perspective they could double the amount of drills in Canada this year and still have tens of millions in spare cash. Easily done, and means we're offering a 5% yield at 26p.

Having said this, I think the spare cash is already earmarked for something else. My bet is a 3-4 well Nth Sea appraisal / exploration program. The fact mgt haven't committed to more Canadian wells given our ballooning cash position reinforces this for me. The only other reason is they're looking at another acquisition, however I see this as less likely due to the increase in Canadian O&G company valuations recently. Maybe another major offloading non-core assets e.g. Cenovus deal, could happen though.

Either way, the fact they're not committing to more Canadian development tells me something else is happening in the background. My money is on the f/o. And if that happens, well let's just say things could get incredibly interesting as it's the one thing that will get the herd running in this direction. We could comfortably be in the 30's before a Nth Sea drill even starts turning. Next week looks like it's going to be fun. AIMHO GLA

Jesus Spawny you must be joking...? Are you saying Russia hasn't been supplying rebels with munitions and troops in the Donbas region for years? That Crimea hasn't been annexed? That all satellite photos of troops, armour and munitions surrounding Ukraine are 'fake news'? The reason why the Russian news is so different to Western news is because its state propaganda. Just like the news in every other state that is run by a tyrant. I don't believe Putin wants war, as he's far too clever to think that Russia can swallow Ukraine without it being terminal to his economy and leadership. My guess is he's posturing and looking for a 'Finland' arrangement, whilst making huge amounts of money on oil and gas prices. Remember a lot of price strengthening in both markets is down to his actions. I'd also guess the Russian state is making billions from going long on gold and other commodities whose prices are being driven up by the uncertainty he's creating. Remember oil and gas make up over 1/3rd of the Russian economy. They're making an absolute fortune every month this continues. He's an evil genius.

As for us, this crisis only supports oil and gas prices. So not a bad thing for us, but certainly bad for the Ukrainian people having to worry about whether Russia is going to invade.

Moving to next week, it's certainly looking good to break into the 20's with oil prices being so strong, alongside the FT article. Hopefully some production numbers early next week and we'll see a strong rise into ex-divi at the end of the week. With a bit of good news I can see us breaking £250m mcap (+22.5p), which feels like a fair valuation for where things currently stand. The stars are finally beginning to align. GLA

Agreed AJ. Some positive words from both them and we'll gain 1-2p. Although I don't rate them, they do have a decent following and more eyeballs means a bigger mcap. What I'd love even more is for docjones to start promoting us again. That guy has a huge following and is worth 2-3p on his own. Crazy how these guys are able to drive up a share price more than a broker / analyst report. Looking good to break 20p next week with the production report and ex-divi to come.

Don't they need to declare when they're doing a buyback?

Some good volume again today. And even better to see us hold the 18-19p channel after such a strong rise. Bodes well for next week, especially if we get some good news early doors. Could create a nice little scramble in the run up to ex-divi. GLA

I'm hoping that's the plan as well TSSZ because even I'm getting sick of asking when we're going to get an update.

It will be interesting to see where we land in the run-up to ex-divi. At 20p we're still +5% yield, but each payment will be 1/10th and not 1/12th of the guaranteed total, which should make it even more attractive. I'm thinking with some good production / development news and +5% yield then we should finally break the magical 20p barrier. Only a few days to go, but building a min-base in the 18-19p range is a very good place to start. GLA

Hi Vmax, not sure I'm with you on Eubank Jnr. RJjnr training him has maybe added one or two strings to his bow, but hard to tell against Williams who isn't anywhere near world title level. To be honest I think triple G even at 40 years old would walk down Eubank and finish him. Not sure he'd beat Andrade either. They're both technically very good boxers and have serious amateur pedigree that Eubank doesn't possess. I do think he could beat Charlo though. They both don't have great footwork and like to bang so whoever lands first and most often wins. Eubank has an incredible engine so has the advantage if he makes it a brawl. AIMHO

Cenkman, I don't really care about how many wells or acres of land we own. Our mgt have a responsibility to keep their company investors (owners) across their investment. This means basics like providing timely updates on quarterly production, which by market standards is over-due. And managing / setting expectations on the various things they've said in the past e.g. progress on Canadian development, f/o or loan facility. Otherwise any listed company could say 'hey we're a complicated organisation with a lot of things going on so stop asking about your investment'. They get paid a lot of money for a company of our size. And they award themselves a lot of easy options. Consequently they should be better than the average at their job, which includes regular shareholder engagement. They've made a lot excellent decisions that have grown the company. But keeping investors updated and front of mind in the market is also their job. And I'd say it's the only thing they need to improve for them to be celebrated as first-class mgt amongst investors and peers. Companies with similar or worse worse fundamentals are valued at 50-100% our current mcap. I'd like that gap closed and it will only happen if they make a concerted effort at promoting their plans and achievements to the market. Some bod members love doing it, others hate it. But the companies that are valued higher than peers on key financial multiples normally have mgt that are willing to engage with the market on a regular basis. Currently there's quite a long list of things we need to hear. Fair value for me is 21p (5% yield) until we've heard more about increased production, cf, divi or the Nth Sea. Hopefully we'll break into the 20's next week and this will be our new home before pushing into the 30's with some news on the Nth Sea. GLA

Onyforreading, true to an extent. I think I mentioned earlier that I'd prefer they went to monthly payments after the 1/2 yearly April payment as we'd get 1 x lump sum then monthlies. They went the other way, which on reflection has its benefits as well, in particular it re-rated the share price to a level where the yield is still +5% and makes it more sticky i.e. holders are less likely to trade especially when there's so much due. The other benefit is you get 1/10th of the divi each month, rather than 1/12th. I think many on here are still missing this. It means you get a much bigger return from holding month to month from now. So yes new entrants get a great monthly return, made better by it being 1/10th of a guaranteed lump sum versus 1/12th, but equally they're having to pay 18p.

Main thing from now is they need to start dropping news more regularly. I'd also like to see them increase the divi. We have a 5% yield @ 21p. I'd like to see it 5% @ 25p so if they add a measly £2.25m it should get us there pretty quickly. We also need updates on Q4 production, Canadian development / exploration progress and forward plan, plus an update on where things stand with the Nth Sea and loan facility. All of these items are now over-due and to be honest I'd prefer if they did them separately given the first 2 will be great news. The last 2 will be 'delayed' at worst. And if they get the loan facility sorted it will force a decision on whether we f/o or go it alone. The Nth Sea being drilled is what will drive the big re-rate, even if we go it alone as we could easily pay for 3 x wells from the free cash we're projected to have at year end. Now imagine when the herd hear we're putting down 3 x wells in 100% owned territory where 2 x wells are in a discovery and appraising a projected 100m recoverable barrels, and the third is testing a structure with a few hundred millions estimated barrels. These lemmings lose their **** over wild projections of 1bn barrels in untested 'frontier' territory in Alaska, which to date have yielded f@ck all (see PANR & 88e for example). As I pointed out yesterday, PANR jumped by more than our entire Mcap in a day based on a well that yielded 40bopd. That 's right 40! Not 400, or 4,000, but 40. So imagine when we're drilling a discovery, plus a high impact well for near 500m barrels in an area surrounded commercial fields and existing infrastructure. We'd be in the 30's when drills are turning, and any commercial success will result in 40's. Oh, and you still get a monthly divi, 2022 Canadian plans will still be going ahead, and if current commodity prices hold we'll still have next to zero debt. So f@ck the f/o partner if they're going to continue dragging their feet. Go it alone if necessary. It's also my suspicion they'll cave and put up the money once we tell them this. AIMHO GLA

Lots of options, but they need to start stating their plans and giving us more regular updates. It's simply good mgt. AIMHO GL

Yes a big fan Vmax and still work a bag every second day at the gym. My posting name is my initials though, just like Gennady :)

As for more posters, I've noticed a few new names popping up recently, but you're right the 'herd' haven't arrived yet. Unfortunately to get the +£1 mob you need to have something like a f/o and stating that your target is X hundred million barrels of oil. Even better if you're shouting about billions of barrels, like 88e, PANR, UKOG etc. It's why I keep saying the f/o will unlock massive gains, and if we cannot secure it we should roll the dice and go it alone. We own everything we find so the risk - that we can easily afford - comes with quite a big reward. GLA

GGG,

'I suspect I've lost more here than you've ever seen. ;-P'

You still haven't answered my question Bushy. Also, you may want to check the sp at i3e. Some posters know me over on that board as I've accumulated 4.75m shares in that company alone. So unless you've lost 7 figures here, I'm pretty sure I've seen a lot more.

Need to get a f@cking rns first though Vmax. Not sure what mgt are waiting for, but we're well over-due an update on many fronts. Multiple rns are better than one catch-all. Let's hope tomorrow is the first. GLA

Out of interest, how much money are you down here Bushy?

It's a lot Bushy if said producer is making f'all from mining the 200k ounces.

I see DB has invested some of his trust fund in the company. Not even close to what he should be putting in given the shareholder destruction he has overseen. Fact is the sp recently broke all-time lows even with gold at $1800 an ounce. The gold price is the only reason this company hasn't been bankrupt many times over. Its survival has nothing to do with DB, just a worldwide pandemic that has lasted 2 years, and a looming threat of WWIII. And even then they can't turn a profit every quarter. Perhaps the most unqualified and pathetic ceo on AIM (except maybe Hanno Pengilly at nccl). Daddy gave him a mine to run where a monkey could turn a profit and DB has still managed to f@ck it all up. So unbelievably sad that trust fund babies like DB & Hanno can't even be ousted due to daddy's money and connections. Anyone else would have been sacked years ago.