RE: CINE - Should I buy or should I wait16 Jul 2021 00:40
From the financials we know and company releases I think this month/next are the difficult ones we now need to negotiate and we will then hopefully have further support from studios providing content and more movies respecting the theatrical window.
For example tonight's trailers included Venom which was advertised as " in theatres only".
Cash at 31/12/20 $337m
US Cares act. $200m
Conv. Bond $195 (useable from $213)
Proforma liquidity total $732
* $60m per month cost when closed (more when open)
Dissenting shareholders cost (this was/is bit of issue, not sure of it's been dealt with seem to recall an RNS on it not yet had chance to check back. In region of $200 - $230m cost from memory)
Base case which said company should be ok ongoing concern used open May (we did) running at 60% 2019 levels (from box office we have I think it reasonable to say we have not yet met this).
Growing to 90% by end year (we don't yet know how realistic this is, but with more big releases, hopefully more volume and no restrictions in all main markets it's still feasible.
Some action was also taken to allow company to extend its limits on borrowing should it need (I think this may come into effect of only to get is a few extra months transition from where we opened to those higher volumes of movies and box office numbers).
That would seem to make any need for a RI (currently not great option at this share price anyway) and also seems we needn't (yet anyway) be (overly) concerned with any chances of bankruptcy.
Various possible events that may already have happened or may yet in next few months require cooperation with bond holders/lenders.
It would seem those relationships are fairly good so again would hope of required would be forthcoming.
Not a legal expert and none of us have access to details on Cineplex deal, but if we take company at its word even if it goes against "us" it shouldn't be unbearably costly.
Still not out the woods, but Mooky interview, reading back through financials, studying box office etc on balance personally "ok" with view we will in time see recovery in SP.
Let's hope we get a green day soon as like most here I am somewhat at a loss to explain recent movements.