Interesting chart comparison to spanish flu. Maybe we are bottoming out now for a recovery soon, if replicates the spanish flu timeline of recovery of stocks.
the world has been very tough for savers the last 10 years with zero rates basically and savers have had to go down the risk curve into bonds and equities etc.
I did same and still will hold out in a portfolio of shares. I have avoided banks though as 2009 i know, even though banks well capitalised are still leveraged. If house prices half when we get out of this (which is still not cheap house prices) banks will be worth zero and need nationalising.
However, if lloyds weathers storm and there is very few bankruptcies and house prices are only down 10 per cent then it would be a great buy. But it really is uncertain and hence the volatility will continue for weeks/months
they wont let it fail and bond holders will be protected to certain extent, but shareholders wont. Look back at the haircut shareholders had to take back in 2009, through share dilussion. They basically wiped out old shareholders and only new shareholders did ok.
i lived and worked for bank of america through 2009 and yes banks are more capitalised and yes the central banks are guaranteeing loans, but the losses from this crisis can mega dwarf the financial crisis and it could wipe out equity value and the banks become nationalised.
I dont think it can happen, but it is a possibility that i think can happen as never seen economic activity stopped like this before and the cost is trillions and trillions if it goes on beyond a few months
banks in this environment are going to be the most risky but at there prices could give the best reward too. I see there volatility being massive for at least 6 weeks now, with regular 10 per cent daily swings. One to hold for the brave, but you can be rewarded at the end of this. But if you cant accept the volatility swings then no point investing for the sake of good nights kip
oxygen - yep noted. Guessing the future in short term i guess is impossible at moment with regards fwd guidance, so maybe for prudency aviva does need to just suspend dividend till end of year and assess then if they can make it as a special dividend on top of future dividends, when they have more clarity on guidance for the future.
Thx Lloy and oxygen, i presume this lending is from their asset manager unit, where they diversify investments for returns to pay annuities?
I presume the lending is different to banks now, in that banks are the ones that the central banks need to lend more in the current situation, whereas aviva have a choice?
Thanks for your information and would like a little more clarity on the reason for their lending. i.e is it as im supposing above?
Aviva doesnt lend money though, which central banks want the banks dividend withheld, to increase capital buffers for lending, as they want banks to be part of the solution and not problem, in lending to companies that were strong before the crisis. There will also be pressure on companies using the furlong scheme for staff to stop dividends too, which is understandable.
But aviva is well capitalised and doesnt need to lend more money and in fact on insurance side home and car insurance will have less payouts and capital may also be released when this is over as avge age of death ay come down from the coronavirus (thats a sad thing to say but a very sad fact)
that's the interesting thing. If a company went ex dividend, the sp fell on ex dividend date but as the money is being kept in house and adding value to the sp as not being paid out, should the ex dividend drop by reversed in the sp, so that effectively the share holder gets a zero effect. Mathematically the money is not going anywhere its still owned by shareholders.
tbh the dividend will only be delayed, if the banks actually lend more and make more money and the economy eventually finds its feet, it could be good for long term shareholders, with increased profits from the lending and they can lend more as more capital held from dividend retention.
derek - see if you read what ive written it clearly says to protect yourself as much as you can, but we do have to get on with it. All of us and a certain amount of necessary life has to go on, as more will die. It was highlighting the war spirit is what is needed and not a snowflake attitude.
That doesnt make me a bad person at all.
But you clearly are with your attempts to change the intent of peoples conversations, as you always do and politicize everything. You dont ever take a share positions here in first place and its a share chat forum, so why do you even appear here, but to try and pea**** your feathers, with your self infatuated knowledge of rmg, that you think noone else has a clue of anything.
Derek - where have i said anywhere that they should do the job at their own health consequences. I said distancing and good hand hygiene is clearly very important.
Again you politically spin things to make yourself look intelligent. But you clearly are a very nasty self infatuated person, that again doesnt preach what you speak. Go enjoy fleecing your tenants
Lamtree - "I dont want want the season frozen with no relegation as I've waited years to see west ham relegated."
West ham are regularly relegated, so the wait couldn't of been too long lol
Derek - i respect everyone on front line. The point im making is everyone is coming together in this national crisis. People on minimum wage are also dealing with danger at the supermarkets day in day out and the struggle to keep distancing too.
But to say rmg are the 5th emergency service is a bit rich, when i see others on minimum wages and all delivery people. They are all doing a great job as well as the volunteers and i dont see rmg employees the 5th service alone.
Does anyone know if their has been any fatalities amongst the posties and if their cases are higher than the general public? That statistic would be interesting to see how dangerous parcels and letters are?
Each community have set up their own response teams as volunteers. My wife coordinates the one in our area and they are overloaded with volunteers. In my village alone there is 134 volunteers in the response team, that have posted leaflets to everyone in every street, basically giving them a telephone no to call if they need shopping, mail posted, just a phone chat, medications etc. These volunteers are well organised even have zoom conference calls between them to sort out logisitic issues etc. This is happening all over the country. By the way these volunteers dont have ppe and dont get paid, they just do the right thing
The public just want royal mail to deliver parcels in safest way as practical and stop this rubbish "they are the 5th emergency service" they are not they are just delivering the parcels we need, while getting paid well and better than many in this country at the moment. So just get on with it and have some stronger spirit. Its not as if your asked to fight in the trenches. Everyone is taking some form of risk at moment and good hand hygiene and distancing as best you can, is all you can do, if you are fit and able to do job, with no underlying medical conditions.
Although imagine the amount of new life that is going to be created with everyone at home at moment. I reckon in 20 years time we’ll have a new lot of baby boomers entering the economy to create new productivity.