Member Info for FrankyS1971

Hi Supercharger, another scenario might be that Marshall Wallace borrowed the stock off Blackrock to sell on the market to short the price and the 0.2% is their payback with interest, aka shares lent to MW + some of the extra stock mopped up from sellers? Am sure Blackrock won't lend stock out for free!!!

Just be grateful its not Prince Philip making a visit. That would be the end of days for Acacia!:-)
The shorters have pulled off the dogs for now and will probably steer clear until the Q3 Barrick announcements on 25th October. We have a full month of these shares re-inflating with news of something significant very possible before now and then. Patience deserves a reward!:-)

Only ever long my man! Just not seeing an offer more than about £2.20. I'd love to be wrong but the Chinese will of course pick this up cheap! and maybe do a reciprocal deal and offer value with the Copper Partnership for example!

Only ever long my man! Just not seeing an offer more than about £2.20. I'd love to be wrong but the Chinese will of course pick this up cheap! and maybe do a reciprocal deal and offer value with the Copper Partnership for example!

£4.87 minus the gun to Barricks head to sell up cheap or never get a deal from Magafuli who is no doubt getting some nice Chinese backhanders:-)!

Hmmm I see...I won't be seeing my £2.80 back in which case...I will have to hope Crispin Odey puts the boot in and forces a reasonable offer of some sort. I would like to have kept these shares and allowed our Chinese friends to deliver some value...to be fair Barrick used the word "partnership" not "sale" so the below is no certain route.

I guess with all the thrashing about with ideas and conjectures we've collectively had, the Chinese angle was on of the consistent themes. How would or could this work? My guess is that Barrick will simply sell the majority of their 64% to the Chinese and keep maybe a 15-20% toe in the water? This shouldn't mean that we as small investors will be affected, as its a straight sell of assets? Are there any other ways of buying the Chinese in, that could see us diluted??

Not sure, but the obvious way as outlined would be a good result longer term you'd think..

I appreciate your view here BigBangs but the future potential as you put it cannot be estimated in this very special and specific instance. Magafuli as President holds power over all mining activities in perpetuity for the citizens, so it really is on him as to what happens here. This is not a normal situation so the value of what might be or could be under different circumstances, is utterly irrelevant without the ability to monetise what is in the ground. I can't see it being sound practice to tot up the Gold sat ready for export and the VAT that is owed and say well it should be worth £2.00 or whatever it is. There is nothing remotely certain about an outcome here and the value is what it is worth TODAY!!! No one knows what tomorrow looks like, so the share price will only go one way, which is sadly down for now. On the bright side, we are all looking to hold and not sell so it doesn't matter if it goes to 50p or 5p. this will obviously go into orbit if there is news. I'd like to be from a higher starting position like you though!!

I m not that enthralled by the idea TBH BigBangs...A higher share price doesn't stabilise the business, get a new contract signed and lift a gold export ban etc. We all have to think much longer term like investors and not day traders. The share price is a side-show, but must be said a good buying opportunity!!

Likely timetable of events:
2018: Situation stabilises and doesn't get any worse we hope (and I mean with cash in the Bank and ability to stay cash positive.
2019 H1 - Some form of final deal is done
2019 H2 - Acacia starts to ramp up operations again. This will take at least 6 months to employ new staff, retrain them etc..you don't just flick the light switch on and say "off we go lads"
2020 - Production is back up to the numbers they used to enjoy and then critically...:
2021 - Dividend payments are restored.

Finger in the air I appreciate, but it gives perspective as to how long is needed to get the business back to where it was. !!

Sorry Tom, but asking everyone to read an old RNS isn't really adding anything to this board so wouldn't say Stock is being that stupid with his comments.

As suggested a few weeks back - 80-90p on the way and no deal any time soon. Magafuli is in the pockets of the Chinese and they want Acacia on the cheap. Not sure why 80 p is even good value. Its only value if you can dig the stuff up and sell it!!! There is no value here without a resolution and I don't see it happening which is why the Chairman has buggered off. Pointless him hanging around!

Sentiment is more positive I agree. I don t think that any one individual will come along and unlock this however. Unless you suggest a new person will fold and agree to an appalling deal?? It s on the Tanz. Govt. to see sense and reverse some of their demands. Forcing arbitration through Tanz law courts is an obvious one. I think it will take a while for ego s to get put aside and some of these laws to get revised again. That has to come from the top so let's see if Magafuli shows some leadership and isn't doing what Jacob Zuma did to South Africa whilst playing the nationalistic card!!!ie Grand theft.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/tanzania-re-opens-its-doors-to-aussie-explorers-as-walkabout-gets-mining-licence/amp/
Quite an important article chaps...it gives a good sense of the overall political climate. Note also the article about acacia being lauded for its community work. Not something you d have seen a year or two ago!!

Useful to know re: your suggestion of $5million only being needed. My instinct was (and still is) that much more would be needed, as the shorters would intensify their activity in the face of a short squeeze and borrow stock from institutions to keep the game alive, but I'm not knowledgable about the mechanics of it.

Perhaps the lack of a buy-back programme is a signal from ACA that they don't think there is value in doing so or at least we can say they think there is more value in holding cash? Not sure. I would personally keep as much in cash to weather any other setbacks and be conservative, should any other unforseen problems turn up.

Agreed that 50/50 isn't a terrible model and allows enough to reinvest capital into other projects, but the lack of resolution doesn't seem to stop the Chinese investing into Tanzania regardless. Agree that it has somewhat subdued investment, but its certainly not killing off inflows, disappointingly, as that would really ratchet up the pressure on the TGov!

I wonder in all this how all the unemployed people direct and indirect feel about it. Haven't seen news of any protests. "What do we want. A SMELTER" When do we want it" NOW" :-:::-))

Hi Big Bangs - You'll have to educate me on the Share Buy Back action you keep Banging on about (bad pun intended). This might make sense for a business sat on a cash pile, but ACA has just scraped together enough shillings by selling royalties etc to keep its head above water. What are they going to buy the shares back with???
I think they have much more important things to worry about than their share price.

Of notable interest, is how the mining conglomerates are pushing back against countries who thought they could make unfounded demands and threats and that these business would just roll over. It hasn't worked but will take a long time for this political cycle to turn the corner.

Price of gold irrelevant IMO. Its not the economic cycle we' re victims of its the political one! And thats not a Tanzania issue its everywhere. Barrick can't set a precedent with Tanz or the business model is dead in the water across all jurisdictions. This is going to drag beyond anything any of us ever imagined. Sorry to say.:-(((

In brief, Crispin Odey is blocking and slowing negotiations down by making Barrick pay more for legacy fines. His threats to block the proposal is forcing the involved parties to keep talking. In the meantime he is able to tell his bessies over at Marshall Wace that its safe to keep shorting as there won't be a deal in the forseeable future and they have a good old carve up of the profits from shorting activity

Is this Insider dealing or illegal? Not sure. But i'd bet my house that this is how its rolling!

Very interesting to read your posts both. I personally think that this will be a next year thing as well. On the bright side I can t help feeling overall that the situation has stabilised. We might still see 80-90p but I am resigned to waiting just to get my cash back if ever. I suspect that this will be next year at some point when things happen. 2 years feels pessimistic though. It's total finger in the air time and nobody knows for sure but it feels like a deadlock rather than a breakdown in talks. I do feel the utter lack of communication is holding us.small shareholders in contempt and I wonder where Crispin Odey sits in all this??!

Does anybody have an opinion on how the bear market for gold might influence all the dynamics surrounding Acacia? I would think negatively if at all. The Government may not want to lift the ban until the price recovers. Had we seen $1400 + this year it might have certainly greased the wheels toward a resolution, but maybe both partiies have a long term view and not bothered about the price anyway??. This still feels like a deadlock to me with neither John Thornton (and his team) or Magafuli (and his puppets) looking like the types to back down, over some key issues. I wonder with Nevada and Alaska looking like the future cash cows, whether Barrick are even that fussed to sort this!?!

It would fit the criteria if at full tilt..but can t see how you can sell something when you don t know what the deal is and therefore the valuation. The sell has to follow the lifting of the export ban etc.

Alternate universe. KD failed along with negotiating team to get TGOV to change their position. There is a deadlock and neither side will back down. A better offer came up and he decided to go. This is set to drag on for the foreseeable so don t hold your breath on deals and announcements anytime soon. Tanz thought Barrick would fold but it has t happened nor will it. What company in their right mind would give up the right to international arbitration for starters! Something the Gvt insists on. It's a f$#ing mess and will take a change in mentality from Magafuli himself who resists pressure from international community to change his path on so many issues. Deadlock. Barrick will let ACA rot rather than give it up to a chinese/tanz tag team that want to thief this business at a knock down price. The promise of closer ties with Shandong is to amelliorate their interfering which might help. But I doubt it. We should do a sweepstake on when a deal gets announced. It might be the best way to make.money from this:-))