Member Info for FrankyS1971

BB - Don't you think Barrick will want to keep North Mara? It fits their 'Tier 1' description of a world class mine (just). Would think they'd sell Buzwagi and Bulyanhulu and retain the biggest asset themselves...

Dimi..this is the analyst I mentioned yesterday..aka my mate works for BAML and its his colleague! - re-rating after its in the news which doesn't strike me as a blinding piece of research!!:-)) I had choice words with said friend as to whether I could have a job as an "analyst". It looks quite easy!

As far as your earlier post about Barrick buying us out..I guess the forming of a new operating company would be a moment where they change the ownership structure, which has to happen to give the 16% free carry. Whether at that point Barrick buys out ACA I'm not so sure. My gut instinct is that it'll happen further down the line. I have read commentary that it'll be the end of ACA in its current format, but if that's the case Barrick will have to be generous, given the issues are a legacy of theirs. I also note that MB said the previous management made a "pigs ear" of things by resisting the call from GOT to give them a bigger stake in years gone by...I can't help thinking they are a scape goat as Barrick would have been in the thick of the strategy without doubt!! Anyway the ACA board have to agree the deal, so asking them to also agree on a Barrick offer on top is too much of a mouthful to chew. i suspect it'll be one thing and then the next in a few weeks/months.

Thanks for the explanation..always mystyfying. Am pleased this is happening at last. I had no spare cash when they were a t a quid or so but persuaded 2 friends to invest. They think I m some investment guru and owe me a steak dinner lol-)..I want to get into william hill before that ship sails...they 'll get bought out soon..

I will be voting to block this deal....
kidding.
My mate works for one of the big investment banks and told me that their analyst changed the rating to buy after the announcement...wow...is this what these guys get paid to do....not the hardest call to make after its splashed in the news....! By the way....interesting to see all the big volumes are sells today...How TF does that work!!!! ??
Now just 45p to go for my break even.....am pretty sure I'll make on this eventually...I do sincerely hope the shorters will be crying themselves to sleep later.:-)) happy dayzz

Dear all,

I have been following this stock for a couple of years, believing its ripe for a buy-out which is still on the cards. The triennial review slowed this process down but I think later in the year a US firm will step in, owing to the cheap pound and growth opportunities in the States.

I also believe that the £2 minimum stake on FOBT's won't be as damaging as some analysts suggest. Gamblers are programmed to go into the shops and part with all their cash, whether it be 2,5 or £50 a spin. you can rifle through £50 in a couple of minutes on the slots, so it won't be a disaster.

The trouble is in a valuation. There will be shop closures but how many? Those shops are on long-term leases. You only need to close a few down and it will get very expensive, buying out the leases. This is the potential drain on cash-flow and what would make me very nervous about this stock.

The market has changed and WH are tied in long-term to a bunch of shops that no longer make revenue. Ouch.

Don't expect a rebound anytime soon until the dust settles and there is more visibility. Worse still a general election and a Labor govt. will screw this sector up further.

I think there is likely to be a rebound though so worth a few quid for the long - term and may be a good entry point soon (I think it will test the lows again around £1.50 personally.)

Good luck all. Hang Tough.

Agree with you BB..I think the price is down to MB no longer suppressing it with shorting tactics and having to cover off their positions. One thing i would say is what we can tell is not happening and that's a Barrick takeover before any deal. After all, why would MB say that he is very confident of a deal, if there was a chance of bringing ACA back in from the cold on the cheap!!?...This is good news as there was always that concern, we would get stitched up and not see full value. I also can't see the Chinese getting a look in either, until after the export ban is lifted etc.

I hope you're right!! Goes to show that holding is the only option, as waiting for news and then buying is certain to be too late:-))

Perhaps its simply a reaction to the news from this week. AKA. Profits up, extended mine life at Bulyanhulu, the sale of assets in Kenya, progressing talks, a comparitively decent gold price etc....this all adds up to pretty good news I would think?? That the shares didn't immediately explode within seconds may not matter as the analysts and brokers might have had a chit-chat to work out their investment strategy. Also, MB may have closed off their short position without us noticing? May not be based on speculative announcements at all,...either way...I'm only £20K down now!!! I could almost live with that!:-)))

He was just on Bloomberg TV and there was nothing new or specific about Tanzania. I know I was a lone voice suggesting a resolution in H2 2019 at earliest but nothing has changed my mind. The political will to compromise isn't yet fully there hence mining ministers getting shuffled about and remarks about Taxation levels being too high...still lots to resolve. Doubtless BB will now insult me about being a shorter and negative again-)! All I 'll say is my timeline looks more likely as this drags on. Am still holding as happy days ahead and aca have done an amazing job to keep going.

Agree with the last few posts..as a long term holder, I know that eventually this will get sorted, but I'm used to not holding my breath in the short term. I think, I/We will all do OK on these eventually, but I'm still resigned to things taking longer and frustrating the crap out of me. I know this is all to do with politics and the political cycle is the key. When does the lifting of the export ban happen and when does the final deal get agreed on?? Answer. The election is in 2020. Please don't hate me for saying, but this will get lifted a the moment that Magafuli can gain the most from it, which will be in the run-up to the election...I might even say that it will move, after he is back in power, as he needs the votes of lots of Village Leaders who think they're going to be sharing 190$Bn between them!!! Hope Not...but this is one scenario with credence.

Great Spot!! I will certainly watch as this all about the political cycle as we've previously chatted about. Whenever the biggest political statement and fanfare can be made around Acacia, so that Magafuli can trumpet about anti-corruption etc, is the moment we'll get a deal. If the election is 2020, then I wonder if now is the best time, or whether you delay this for a big PR exercise in the run up the 2020 election??? Something I have always feared which is why I feel this will drag on into H2 2019 or into next year even....I hope to god not.:-(!

Interesting the smelter piece has kicked up again! I thought the view here last year, was that building a smelter was arbitrarily too expensive and prohibitive to even contemplate!!? I have no idea what the costs are, but I recall there were some people on here, who sounded like they knew what they were talking about, who dismissed the idea as bonkers.

I know we all want to believe this will get resolved mid-feb and I m a lone voice in my scepticism. MB I applaud for creating positive pressure but ultimately the Tanz Gov are utterly dysfunctional and it does kind of need them to agree on this. What I find upsetting is the number of African lives this must have decimated whilst corporate lawyers earn fat fees from their carcass. There comes a point Mr Magafuli where you 're intended aims do the opposite and that moments come and gone.

Hi BB un all...that's a good spot. It does remind that when this is eventually back on an even keel that perhaps it might then be prudent to exit (if that is our decision as small shareholders to make) as I can't help thinking that a militant Got may just fine the ass off miners and boost their coffers that way...especially if they start doing well God forbid!

I wonder..does this have anything to do with that report a few months back about Water pollution and Magafuli saying that the findings were suspect and that they were going to reopen the investigation etc...I recall that shaving a good few pence off our SP at the time!!

https://marketrealist.com/2019/01/will-the-gold-merger-expedite-the-tanzania-disputes-resolution

2nd week of Feb allegedly..looks like the ownership structure of ACA will almost certainly change.

Spread betting..the only winner is the guy making the margin in the middle! With trading..you only need one bad call to wipe out all the profit you ever made, so not really one for me!!

Long term investing is where its at baby:-))

Thanks Super! I've been in for 18 months now so I'm thinking a 20% return is not too greedy over say 2 years given the pain and risk!!!.AKA around £3.50 which I think is imminently achievable as pieces fall into place.

I'll be break even in a few months at this rate!!!:-::::::::::::-)))

I take this with a massive pinch of salt. Funny that this fake news should come out just days after a positive announcement. I can't take this remotely seriously and its so clearly fabricated it makes you wonder about the credibility of even the Wall st Journal quite honestly. Any Journo would check out the story and speak both to ACA and the SFO before publishing this crap. I take this as a major buying signal with the shorters having to resort to desperate measures by calling in favours!!!

Jealous of everyone who bought in at 1-1.40 range. !! -) having held this stock for 2 years I d like to see £4 + to justify the pain!!-)..never say never!!! Next week is crunch I believe!-)