Member Info for FrankyS1971

Well everyone has said it's a good time to buy at 2.00 1.80 1.60 and now at 1.48. it ll pop up a few p tomorrow but another dead cat bounce. I guess we don't need to time this too perfectly given longer term upside, but personally I might top up soon but not yet. I reckon we re nearing the end of the shorts but maybe another week or so left. Happy if i miss boat as eventually will eke out a profit. Govt won t want to go to arbitration with date for court hearing set in August so expect this to be done by then.

Yes and here s the real nub of it. When you have a near dictatorship with no meaningful opposition, then there are no real consequences. The GOT has the luxury of kicking this can down the road. A two/three party system would have too much political pressure to allow this nonsense. I hope the closer to 2020 this gets the likelier something will get sorted.

This has been one of my main concerns that there has been cat and mouse going on. AkA we ll settle the dispute if you sign up to our laws which means no international arbitration. ACA are not going to give up their right to a fair independent investigation. This had been a major blocker and comes from GOT rushing through legislation and not thinking it through. Something they have world renown for!!! The alliance of miners that is being formed is to get the GOT to compromise over this vital area of law. Eventually the GOT will eat humble pie and move their position on this.

If Barrick acted in the way you are suggesting, every Fund Manager owning these shares from BlackRock to Crispin Odey would be banging on the door of the SFO!! All I really can be sure of, is that you have a change in ownership structure, a 3-way contract to write up and a lot of detail to make this fly. Its going to be a while.

Re the last few posts. If Acacia were to be sold it's somewhat irrelevant if the share price is 1p or 1000p. The business will get sold at what it is valued at so just want to scotch the myth that share price = value of business = any guidance to sale price. 2nd thought is that the oz guidance in many ways is also immaterial as it's not like the dividend payment is in jeopardy. There isn't one!!! I therefore don t read anything into this whatsoever.

Hi Dimi..sorry about my snidey comment just now...I didn't read your previous post and I appreciate what you wrote.

I guess with the pain of today, its basically why you have to make a judgement call and then ride it out for the long term.

If I had some spare cash to average down I probably would, but it feels too much like doubling down at the casino so we'll just to have to bear with it.

With it being Easter week, my guess is that the volumes are tiny and give it a week or two it'll likely reinflate again!

Well you've had plenty of opportunity to Dimi.

If you step outside of yourself Dimi and reread your post you ll appreciate that your post is arrogant and says everything about you and nothing about me.
I am sat on a paper loss not a loss as it hasn't been realised. I don t gamble by averaging down shorting guessing etc. I took a position and I ll wait like any rational investor will do. And for what it's worth don t assume I have anything to average down with. If you re making a profit good for you but it won t last with the mentality you seem to have AKA a mug punter.

This is the point. Arbitration you're looking at 5-7 years so we're not even half-way. The stock will have downward pressure as no buyers of any serious nature will come in, until this is resolved, so who's to say we won't lurch back to a £1.00?! I'm not actually thinking that will happen for a moment by the way....With growth dropping from 7% to 4% and an election coming up, you'd like to think resolving this would be vaguely useful to Magafuli. But you read comments from a lawmaker who says..."should we bother wasting time with an election as we already know Magafuli has won. Let's just give him another 5 years".!!! Pretty scary mind-set and could mean that resolving this doesn't matter one way or another politically...when this gets resolved though we mustn't hang around for too long!!!:
a) Why would anyone want to invest in a backward prejucided country, full of autocratic douche bags. AND Crucially:
b) There will be a window of opportunity but I expect Magafuli to fine the £fuc% out of Acacia and other operators, every time the production numbers look decent, they'll come up with a cobbled together bunch of Bu&£it to extract more money from the operators.

I agree that one could cut ones losses and go elsewhere DK but I won't personally roll-over. now This is my Rourke's Drift of an investment;-))!

Had ACA management been more involved in the negotiations and not ostracized by the heavy handed GoT they wouldn't feel the need to push in with arbitration. Hold up is with ACA who are clearly not on the same page with this deal. My guess is why would you present this for voting if you knew it would be rejected. There a your problem.

TBF Super, the big institutional investors won't likely get involved until there is a dividend in place. So 2019 to sort out the legals. Then in to 2020 they open up Buly, clear the inventory, re-employ folk, get production ramped up etc....When the dividend gets restored it'll be 2021! Maybe back end of 2020 therefore you might see some bigger bets form the likes of M&G but much sooner than that I don't know...ultimately guess work but feels about right...

I don t quite get why this is on ABX.? GOT is the horse being dragged to water..this is more about them and the pace they are willing to move at IMO.

Good call Super. Have always thought that politically this won t move until there is maximum impact for the GOT ahead of election which to me puts this H2 or even into 2020. Likeliest is this year though as time needed to rehire folk and increase revenues etc so the.feel good factor is already underway ahead.of election...

Could nt agree more..total stuff and nonsense..enough to stop new investors though.. more fool them..anything below 1.60-1.70 I ll be topping up!

Answer here is about risk. North Mara under threat of closure. No deal agreed yet..ACA not yet on board with deal possibly..no dividend since 2017...if this was a shoe in we d be sat on £4 a share. There wont be any new money or proper functioning market until this gets fixed. I think we ll be fine but lots more patience needed.

I have not read the other posts yet, but it's been agreed with the govt and in same breath needs to be approved by the govt? What does that mean?? Paperwork..a vote amongst ministers or magafuli Roman emperor thumbs up? If it's not been approved then it's not been agreed surely...its all so b^$//y slow!!

Go look at the volumes Dimi. The shares are very easy to manipulate on very light volumes. That's why it's a shorter paradise...there are no institutional buyers trading so they can push the price around at will. It's a case of selling and then buying back their own shares in the hope of picking up privately held shares from people who throw in the towel. It's also a paradise for Marshall Wace because they get inside track from Crispin Odey. They no full well that no finalised paperwork is ready so they can dick around with the price. That's why you have to just ignore the price day to day.

The hold up will unequivocally be with the GoT. This mate of mine works for Tony Bliars NGO and has done advisory work around various economic policies direct with the GoT. They are utterly chaotic. Its death by committee. He has also been to North Mara and when this all broke out 2 years ago, he said cool as you like, it'll get sorted but it'll take 2-3 years. "Even when you and try and help these guys, they just fuck it up"!! Watching how this has unfolded his comments were absolutlely on point!!...making policies up on the fly and then finding out they are unenforceable or unworkable, then cue mass internal debate via committees........I would hate to be MB right now...it must be tortuous and I would think that the other takeover talk is entirely sensible as you have to do "business as usual"..is isn't a good strategy waiting on a deal with the GoT before doing anything else!! Its a shorters paradise but BB is spot on...they are just selling and buying and selling their own shares...there are only a few hundred private investors in on this!!

I doubt whether institutional investors will buy shares for clients because there is gold in containers worth a few extra quid. Without the ban being lifted a stable environment and a dividend being reinstated this will continue to be light on volume and aat the vagaries of MW.

My observation having followed this for so long it that there has been a number of times where the price has gone down a few percent every day for 3-4 week periods then it has paused for a week or two. In that window, its been very tempting to buy in thinking that the price has stabilised only to see it do the same again and lose another 30-40p!! The shorters are very good at the psychological war games and ultimately they want our shares. I'd just say hold and don't stress about it. I'm not sure if the price hovering at £2.00 is a sign of anything other than the shorters preparing for another good kicking!! I don't think so given we must be close to news but.....it would be no surprise if they beat it down to £1.60-1.70 (not that it would stay there long!)