Member Info for FrankyS1971

This is true TT but everyone is playing brinkmanship here!

One potential outcome here is that Barrick make no official offer. They have demonstrated to the GOT that they have mooted a solution here and 'tried'. We know the GOT has said that this is now on Barrick to resolve thus absolving themselves from moving ahead with ACA involvement. Barrick will do nothing here and let arbitration roll on. The GOT will dig its heels in for the months ahead whilst growing more threatening with the language. Barrick will repeat that we risk losing everything and maintain the existing offer level and then much later in the year make another play on the cheap. This may be a Barrick ploy to either force the GOT into an agreement OR get us on cheap. Either way, the long game suggests there is no reason for Barrick to act now and start chucking £3 a share at us. All they have to do is wait until either ACA or the GOT cry enough or the courts force the answer on all parties.

Exacly Super...just seen JP Morgan do the same. They are slowly pot building and stoking up the price!

Hi Super..just catching up on the thread...it confirms what we knew that MW have borrowed Black Rock stock to short with and Crispin Odey being a part owner of MW gets the inside track being a sizeable investor in ACA, through his seperate HF business. How they are allowed to even get away with this shit is pretty disgusting, though I might add that this is pure speculation (excuse the investment pun)

Anyway - two observations, as soon as the shorting activity dies down the price has always shot up within 2-3 weeks on low volumes, so it doesn't take much. From memory around 10-15p per week was quite typical on all 3 occasions in the past 2yrs.

Further - last night the Dow leapt over 500 points but remarkably at time of looking the Gold Price had gone down just 0.2%!! In that moment I thought "hello! This is looking good!" - Here we are today with the price jumping again. This is ultimately buying on the Fed Rate Cut expectations and may mean we finally break out on the upside to over 1400. We're certainly seeing the pattern change up i.e. stocks up and gold down. Risk on and Risk off etc. Its now Risk on but hedge with gold or risk off and hold cash or top up on gold.

Finally brain dump to catch up, is that I thought it was odd that Fidelity came out and said the offer was 50% too low!!! What planet are they on? Try 150% too low!!!! As long as the GOT force Barrick into a corner to buy us out and as long as ACA and the small investors stand their ground, we'll see £4+. You might think thats a crazy thing to even suggest but I'm firmly in BB's bullish camp here! This will all be done before the court date in July/August time.

Well fair play for your efforts writing in BB..good on ya..! I think MB will respond, that the political climate has changed massively since they floated Barrick off and that the price today is a fair reflection of the operating environment going forward. Of course we dispute that position as we all know that Barrick set the original agreement up and then derisked their portfolio by effectively reducing their exposure. What I would point out, is that part of the derisking must have been influenced by knowledge that the existing contract was over generous and might well fall into dispute. Barrick has to take its share of responsibility therefore as the seeds of todays problems were sown by the parent company. They set the business up, voted in the ACA Directors, created the deal, the corporate culture etc..

I do think that the public stance is going to be different from the private view however. Barrick have to be seen as on the GOT side or at the very best neutral, or they will find even more resistance.

I am surprised that ACA themselves have made such little noise having now had time to consider MB's vocal points and having now spoken with the GOT on their position. These guys are at least as worthy of a letter or two, as we deserve to know more. The time for silent treatment toward small shareholders should be over and there ought to be more transparency.

That all sounds spot on Dimi. I need 2.95 B/E which ain't going to happen, but shaking on around £2.50 might have to do. At least I would just need Barrick to recover the rest which would look very do-able in time! I am going to read up on arbitration processes and what to expect. I really don't see how GOT can seize the mines without becoming a pariah state and in real hot water. It isn't their call to not deal with us as they may not get that choice through the courts.

Seperately - Barrick could if they wish, shorten this process but Acacia have the threat of dragging this out with nothing to lose. I wonder if the low-ball Barrick offer is just to demonstrate to the GOT that they tried and failed and won't pay more because the GOT have made it too risky to invest and that its on them to sort. It could be a smart ruse to get the GOT into a corner where there is no other option. Its like the GOT saying well its up to Barrick and Barrick saying well actually no, its on you GOT....meanwhile ACA actually have the power here though it may not seem that way. I think we may be in a stronger position than many suspect.

No offence but earth calling plane Pat??? Where do you get 1.70 from?? Presumably taking Barricks offer and adding a bit? I'd suggest that this isn't how bidding works. Add a bit from what was offered? There will be at least 2 or 3 bids arguing, public threats etc before this is done(it will likely get scary!!!)...But let's get scientific here and use Barricks numbers as the base. Their valuation of the business is £2.52. They now suggest that with ACA the deal would be signed and therefore this would be Barricks start point. By the time they are fully operational again, they will have a business adding significant numbers to their portfolio and parts which they can sell off if they choose and make from pretty instantly. The upside far outweighs the risks as they tell us they have resolved stuff with the GOT, though not with ACA. £2.50 is a bargain for Barrick and given they are the authors of this mess, regardless of what MB says, I would not sell without a premium, I would go to arbitration as we have something very valuable worth fightling for. I wouldn't settle for less than £3 but reality is its not my business, so I can see £2-2.50 somewhere. £1.70 would be an instant GFY. ("Go F Yourself"):-)....Can anyone remember what their SMT options price was from last year?? Add 10-20% on that and you'll know what they'll be holding out for!!:-)

Another way of looking at this...MB puts the low bid in knowing it ll get rejected. Barrick is then in a place to demonstrate to the GOT that they think it's fair value and won t be offering more. That then turns the heat up on the GOT as its arbitration or sign the deal. Either way, they would be forced to acknowledge ACA lawfully and resolve this.

We all know clear as day that MB will sell parts of Acacia within 12 months of acquiring it. They will make a handsome profit by flipping Buly and Buzwagi on to the Chinese stating they are "derisking" their portfolio. Its corporate theft with a pretty narrative tacked on and nothing more. Barrick has known for months that this was coming and knew what price they wanted to get ACA at, which his shorting stooges were instructed to force the price down to.

I hope this goes all the way to arbitration and I hope Acacia make both the GOT and Barrick bleed for a good 12 months by refusing to settle. They have to limp on and take the blows and force a fair offer.

Realistically how many fines, arrests and undermining from the "parent company" can one company take though?? Get this to court ASAP and get that process underway. Then we can see who blinks first.

Really!!!:-0...I should have put my money into BHS or Arcadia Group..much nicer folk:-))

I got half way to posting a similar thought Pistachio. Our main characters in this saga are deeply unpleasant individuals which doesn't fill me with much joy. MB blasts the f&! out of defenceless animals for sport and Magafuli blasts the fu(!£ out of defenceless opposition leaders. Its not good.

just by way of example. Nevsun rejected 5 bids from Lundin which started at $2:50 per share and by a few months later sold to Zijin for $6 dollars. Obviously a whole different set of dynamics, but its worth bearing in mind that this is the first bid and by the end of it, we could still see £3+

The ACA strategy has to be arbitration and the long-game. It heaps the pressure back on Barrick and the GOT. The GOT will threat closure and nationalisation and swear blind how rotten ACA is etc. But with Barricks stake they will have to up the offer considerably or risk losing their stake entirely. I think there is at least a year left in this now as I don't believe the minority holders will capitulate anytime soon for anything under £3.00. This feels like it has a long way to go.

They should do something Akin to the Football transfer market and give us a sell on fee when they flip Buly over to the Chinese for an instant profit!

This is true..to get to 3, Barrick would need to double the offer which seems unlikely but here's hoping.

Maybe we should be buying more ACA shares now to average down?? gulp. Bit too risky perhaps.

I just read that bit about it not being an actual offer and now you've done the thinking for me. Could be that this is the case. However, the GOT are adamant that any final resolution will not have Acacia signing off against it, so it implies that t has to be a takeover and is out of Barricks hands.

This is the only route worth taking. Either way, Barrick have shown their true colours by putting in such a pitifully low bid. This will get rejected outright by the board who will push for abitration now. Barrick will then come back with a slighlty less pitiful offer. Either way. Bye bye to my £3.00 break even!!!:-((

This is not my gut instinct Super. There seems to me zero chance of some neat and tidy announcement just cos it's the AGM. We may get some clarity but I suspect it will be a rehash of what we know. Any final final deal and three way agreement will just pop up when it's ready not in line with a corporate timetable. Would be good to have it wrong.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-05-20-human-rights-continue-to-worsen-in-tanzania-as-magufuli-cracks-down-on-critics/

Maybe we should wait in the hope that Magafuli gets booted out of office.

I m not so sure this is what is happening. If Barrick are persisting that they want a vote on whatever is going on, then that vote cannot be anything to do with an offer to buy out minority shareholders. That would mean MB gets to vote on their offer being accepted which would of course be illegal. I still believe the firing mechanism has to be deal first, sale of assets second. If the sale is dependent on a deal, then Acacia will go to court and this will drag on for a long time.