Member Info for FrankyS1971

I appreciate its a bit dull just speculating and talking sh@!E and won't change a thing but just throwing it out there. I notice Amigo haven't posted anything on facebook or twitter since March time. I assume this is because they are looking to keep a low profile and not attract more pain by putting the landing lights on! Further and more importantly: it might be helpful to think about what next week will look like:
We need - a clearer number of costs and impairments.2. Clear idea of the run rate of complaints so we can understand how stable operations are. 3. Cash position made clear. 4. IF and when they intend lending again?? That seems crucial to me as the business needs to grow its book of business on a sustainable footing to get invested in.5 Board changes imminent. 6 FCA fines and whether we are seeing the end of this.
When you list out the minimum requirements, its no surprise this is going into a death spiral. Next week needs to draw a firm line under the above in the majority of areas, but whether we will get clear answers I doubt. Does the board even know themselves at the end of the day, its a mess and a changing picture which needs really strong management to get to the other side! It feels quite binary now. 0p or 20+p by end of summer.

I don't think its a mystery here- selling 1% a day and pushing the SP lower is going to pressure the board and see them out the door, I suspect very close to their results being published. They already said they don't plan on hanging around and JB is keeping up the pressure. We won't see him sell for 40 days, because I suspect he will get his way along time before then and get access/control of his old business back.

It may involve us small holders getting wiped out before a refinancing. Seems likely to me.

Correct Malpenn - Do not forget when you read these invitations from law firms to apply, they will of course make everyone feel they have a chance to get money back as they want volume. The reality is "affordability" is a grey area. I would want to see bank statements to see what the expenditure of each individual was. If they are wasting money on non-essential items then the loan may well have been affordable. Ultimately I think the number 1 acid test will be way simpler. Did Amigo do a proper check with credit agencies on any defaults or mis-payments etc. Even then, they are borrowing from Amigo because they have been refused elsewhere and will almost certainly have a default. It seems to me that the mgt is very weak to roll over and accept the FCA version of events who have moved the goalposts in what seems a very grey and murky sector of the credit market. I would be pushing back hard on these guys and if it threats the business, you would go legal if only to get an exact clarity and agreement on what can and can't be done going forward.

Well...i soooo hope we re right Hillman!-) its got the millstone around its neck with the 1%drag. If the.board walks this would really fly IMO.

Similar to me. All my profit and some. 40k at 10.19. Sweating at night.

Its not just about income is it. Its about expenditure as well. If someone borrows money and carries on buying their groceries at waitrose and refuses to trim down, cancel subscriptions, stop taking cash out on credit cards etc. Is that loan affordable or unaffordable? Rather than make tough decisions you borrow more to put off the pain of change in the hope a better solution comes along. This is hugely subjective therefore and far from a case of yeah we ll pay up compensation. Its about treating customers fairly but holding them accountable. Many of these loans one suspects were affordable but expenditure of individuals is usually out of control. This makes it a very grey area so actuallly its much more about process. Were they followed and why did the superviser aka the FCA not do more sooner if amigo ops was out of control?

Aciactan is famous for using some language translator and spends his time talking absolute horses&£t. Sad to see this idiot on here

The problem is there will be more than 9000 complaints by now. Way more. Virtually everyone will cimplain as tgey have nothing to lose. The worst outcome is a no or renegotiation for each customer.

My guesstimate was circa 80-90m but this could easily go up if they cant stem the flow of complaints. They should be hopefully ok as any FCA fines can wait if it puts the business in any immediate peril.

Grabbed another 5k at 8.6p and now 35k at 10.19p. Large gulp and feeling insane. **** or bust-)!

Hi super. Good too see your touch on Marstons. I have been trading in and out of Centamin quite nicely but sold barrick. Fx charges make it impossible to trade and i lost my focus to hold them forever. Never got my special dividend!! Glad to finally eek a profit. Had a touch on Boohoo the other day and now sucked into Amigo. Seem to be gambling and trading these days and should have just held barrick and taken my own advice!

All very interesting comments so thx for the input its appreciated. It won t be in anyones interests for Amigo to fall but that doesn t mean it wont. The danger as we know is like PPI the claims.just keep coming and they never get on top of it or past it. The Operational costs for no actual value add in topline must also go up substantially. We must also consider that there is going to be a likely dip on the markets and sentiment at a macro level may also be a negative if this correction comes soon. My gut instinct is that they will survive at a heavy price and writing up profitable business will be rather harder so the recovery may be less dramatic. Let,s see!

Well i stuck 20k ,+ 10k in at circa 11p. Now feels very binary. Lose the lot or see it recover with a decent return. Probably a mistake on my part as i can t help think that they will end up fund raising or refinancing or wiping out us shReholders to recover and grow business on the cheap..dunno..only thing is they seem to have 100m + and 35m in bad deals with a good wedge on top. Even doubled privisions there would be plenty for ops to continue. Time will tell.

Feel free to add to these:
Strengths: We kind of know. Growing market, need to cut costs through automation of manual processes, digitisation of operations etc.
Weaknesses: Its very hard to automate many end to end processes and businesses have been disappointed in part over the ROI, this has slowed down level of investment in part and and not purely COVID19. Many automated processes have just shoved bottlenecks elsewhere in the overall process and therefore haven't delivered as much efficiency as was hoped for.
Its hard to value the business and there is no dividend obviously, so still a highly speculative though promising stock.
Threat: UIpath. They haven't even IPO'd yet and are worth a few billion quid on paper already. Why? because their tools are open architecture and you can do a lot more with it than BP offering. I will also add that the barrier to entry into this space is not that high and I personally think the Google's and Microsofts will come up with their own solutions which will likely advance automation to the next level. They have deeper pockets than BP so longer term is a clear threat.
Opportunity: Has to be that BP sells in 2-3 years when they are cash positive and still growing provided they can keep the growth curve up.
There are plenty of other points here worth shouting out, so feel free!! For me its going to remain volatile short term and longer term I just feel there are other firms with deeper pockets who can innovate at speed and BP ultimately isn't generating cash yet, so it can't invest that much into staying ahead of the competition which will grow .
Personally, I would say that you have to be sure that Covid 19 is a temporary knock and the reason for slowing sales. Thats the managements take but it isn't mine as the easy process wins are now done, leaving more complex automation work to go after and I don't think businesses are ready to do it. They don't have the skills or the money to bring in the Accentures and do big ticket change for now and they don't have the skills in-house.
I hope thats good food for thought.

Not sure about that..made a healthy 2.5k loss dipping into this stock and am staying well away on note of the shorters increasing their positions which is back up to 10% (just under). I don't like going against Malodius Odey and the recent rise will suck in some retail investors no doubt, ready to then be expunged at a lower price. That's how it seems to work with this stock.

Still remains a hilarious board to read. Full of delusion and wonderment. Its like that monty python film with the Knight. No arms or legs left but still having a go. I wonder when this is below 50p then 40p if Cuds is there screaming value buy more its value.-).. the sell off hasn t even started yet!!! You think metro is the one little pink salmon swimming upstream when that happens??

Good for you!!! I am still wedded to barrick and centamin but a little nervous..that said if i was in your shoes i might consider taking the risk off the table as this is a bull trap in a new bear market IMO. What i can t figure out is whether barrick will get dragged into the big sell off when it comes or if it is the moment to explode up. Racing cert the bottom in march will get tested or broken very soon!!

You use the word investment but that infers long term which by definition makes this uinvestable. You can only trade this aka gamble. Mugs game.

read with interest. I have been looking at Capita as well but didn t think of the others especially. Am still waiting for another dip and still think that low from a month ago will get tested eventually. Most things will be a good buy then!! Still researching junior minors this end...glencore is in trouble in zambia and is like ACA all over again and cant stomach that!!!-))