LTI
What the City are seeing today is a bank led by an uber cautious acting CEO about to hand the role over in August and a very cautious board which clearly sees itself as having a greater duty to preserve capital to support the UK economic recovery, which arguably for a bank which was bailed out by HM Govt 10 years ago is a noble cause. That duty conflicts with any desire to return capital to shareholders. The issue for us is not today but when results (and full year dividend announcement) are released next February. If, as you allude to in your post, the final is at or slightly above today’s announced interim, then that will confirm the doubts in the City about whether Lloyds will ever be the cash cow some of us expect. If it seeks to position itself in this way it will not be compared favourably to Barc and the US Banks, the latter having just shovelled cash out the door to their shareholders.
Asperger - fair enough. I do believe however that a few emails from PIs will be nothing compared to the impact if the request comes in from major shareholders in LLOY - and I also believe that that has already happened.
On a non-trading day I always despair when I see petty arguments, snide remarks and the occasional abusive retorts on this board - be it related to Brexit or which actions a particular landlord should be entitled to take in dealing with tenants who occupy the property but for whatever reason are not paying the rent. Can I encourage you to give it a rest. Much better to dwell on how the Lloy SP will receive a turbo charge when the dividend shackles are released prior to H1 results. That decision must come in June to enable the Boards of the large lenders to formulate short-medium term dividend strategy and announce what that looks like when H1 results are released at the end of July. With the outcome we are expecting, even Sufcessex’s assessments of SP growth this year could appear a tad conservative.
Sufcessex,
I think that you are wrong in your assessment, which is nothing more than supposition on your part. I think that we are looking at a Lloy share price in excess of £1 this year based on:
*no further PPI provisions
* inflation roaring back - 2 businesses with which I am involved in NI have suffered 50% increases in raw material prices in the last 6 months
* UK first out of the blocks in completing vaccination programme
*Board free to set level of dividend after July
*UK productivity set to increase exponentially
Facts my dear boy, not supposition
PS: I did tick you up - always do
Crouton - I’m glad that you are not running this bank. Lloyds is only going to increase its savers rates if the loss of margin is more than offset by its margin on mortgage borrowers’ repayments arising on new loans.
I take great delight in how the negativity, abuse, snide remarks, nationalistic rhetoric and rudeness which prevails on this board on an almost day basis does not matter one jot in terms of the market forces which have since the turn of the year been propelling the LLOY share price upwards and which will continue to do so.
87p was reached in a decade of recovery of the UK economy, recovery of this bank, the exit of HM Govt as a shareholder, the impact on the LLOY SP of the BREXIT referendum and the subsequent uncertainty which continued until early this year, a PPI debacle which led to provisions amounting to many billion STG£ and a BOE imposed moratorium on dividends. LTHs - sit back and watch what a reopening and surging economy, a hugely buoyant residential property market and inflation above the BOE target of 2% does for this share price - a share price which still has some way to go to reach its pre-pandemic level. It is difficult not to be optimistic that we will see 75p by end-2021 and £1 in 2022.
The big issue for Barc was that after all the hype over the last 6 months about what an attractive share it is at this price, going over 200p imminently etc, it delivered a very cautious outlook this morning and did not release any provisions back unlike the other other two UK centric banks. That is a big issue for the markets who, as a result, have slammed the share and will drive the price down to realistic levels in the days to come commensurate with the CEO’s v cautious outlook. Money will now pile into LLOY which is nowhere near its pre-pandemic price and which delivered the best set of results of the UK banks and which is set to become a dividend machine.
Hollybean - yes there will be huge inflationary pressures when lockdown lifts but they will be positive for Lloy - it takes negative interest rates off the table and leads to the near term possibility of interest rate increases to curb inflation. When that happens, watch this share. Our friend Falkland will, with hindsight, be seen to have grossly underestimated where it heads.
Falkland - a word of advice. Your arguments for a much higher SP in the medium term when you are holding would have greater strength/credibility if, now you are not holding (apart from SB), you didn’t post news/speculation in a forlorn attempt to adversely affect Lloy investor sentiment. Let me put it another way - your credibility has disappeared like yesterday’s snow in the fields around my home.
Pat - I agree. It may not be tomorrow, or the day after but sometime soon the SP will move sharply higher and will not return to these levels. The strength of this Bank will ensure that - a very different circumstance to what afflicted the Bank 10 years ago.
TDT - still hanging around after many years? Did you ever buy? What’s the latest conspiracy theory? Do you not agree that we have a very different company/asset/board of directors compared to the pre- North Dakota days?
Perhaps this time you would consider more that a one word answer. Some informed comment from you would be appreciated.
Thank you.
Foxhound.