Member Info for Fortissimo

Looks a great year ahead for PoG... been a long wait but the stars are aligning.

You've done slow and stupid for 18months Bob... now time to go fast and smart please. H1 or H2 will do but needs to be this year as markets likely to roll over and turn south once voters have voted in election race... US markets always go up pre elections... with help of Fed Reserve of course.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1042837/gold-price-to-hit-2250-but-wait-for-pullback-first-says-ubs-1042837.html

BBG... Bob and Mather need cash. That's there end game. They won't wait another 10 years+... makes no sense at all.

But that doesn't mean that life cant go on with SOLG and the regionals.

We could have 4 or 5 Alpala size resources in our folio just waiting to be discovered/drilled.

Bob and Irwin et all want their cash out... they want their pay day.

It's a pi weakness 'watching share prices' on a minute by minute basis. Most II's wll monitor etc but they view things in months if not years and not minutes when it comes to investing. The trading firms do the sub second stuff and leave it up to algo's and bots.

Based on my numbers on volume sold/bought etc since the large 75m block got rinsed a couple of weeks ago, if there was any overhang or some loose stock, I think today will be the day (poss tomorrow) when it's cleared. Then you have a market whereby there is not easy stock to get hold off and natural forces come into play. The mm's know when things are drying up so they manage it well and you'll see a sudden move soon (IMHO) whereby the decide it's time to move into the 9's. First target will be circa 10.5p levels. 11.25p obvious test as 100% level from recent 5.67p low.

The resistance at present or stalemate on the sp (virtually unchanged over last 3 days) suggests effective control of pricing but that control disappears when stock dries up.

The SR may well reveal a plan to do a spin off and park some regionals and Porvenir within that shell... then they are free to sell off ENSA without breaking the LSE listing rules for cherry picking prime assets etc.

At moment, they can't sell ENSA outright because it breaks those rules. Instead, it has to be an offer for the whole business (shares in issue).

The Valuestone guy was brought onto the board for a reason or as part of agreed terms on a deal of some kind. That might be asset sale.. it might be funding... it might be JV stuff. But in summary... you don't stick someone like Mr Lui on you board unless you plan to give the chinese something. It makes no sense at all especially based the 6% holding. Giving the chinese a fly on the wall position suggests to some degree that negotiations are already pretty much done.

All IMHO of course.

And yet again they virtually close the sp unchanged.

That's almost 160m shares traded over last 5 to 6 days or 5%+.

It's possible that there might be some overhang on the 4om share block that got rinsed at end of Feb at 6.11p. If that is the case, then that pile is cleared early next week and then off we go into the 9's and 10's... about time too.

But question is... where are all these shares going? Must be about 300m gone through into new hands since start of the year.

We are due a specualtive journo press story.... seems par for the course everytime SOLG moves closer to derisking Cascabel.

You'd think Maxit and Citi would happily leak some rumours when they see fit.

Probably after they've agreed the director bonus share awards lol!

Everyone's all primed for a sale or deal rns next. Could be next week.

FOMO rebuilding agaun now they have that CIPA signed and the number fully aired to all... $3.2bln. That's a lot of protection for any would be interested parties.

9m traded already and it's just past 12.

Someones seriously keen to keep this sub 8.5p. They probably don't want it going back into the gold index lol!

Futile effort as market forces will eventually get this across the line and the higher volume of late confirms that. The brokers and pundits at PDAC haven't reported back fully to their trading desks yet!

Going to be interesting to see if the US trade side or canadian player slaps the price back down in their afternoon post 1.30pm trading hours like they did yesterday.

We've had so many strong volue days only to see the sp close suspsicously at unchanged level almmost to the last tenth of a penny. That's just bizaar. It's as if they are desperate to negate the days action which would lean toward a deliberate VWAP control and we know VWAP is often used against bid/offers as justification or explifies premium offered.

PoG should have hit 3000oz during covid but FED Reserve prevented it.

That cost the FED alot of money. They ahve suppressed GOLD for years now in support of the dollar.

At some point the reality dawns that the gold in them vaults aint quite what it should be. Some of those vaults are empty.

If the real numbers on Gold speculation were know, we'd be through 10000oz now.

And due to covid (orsubsequent inflation woes)... miners have not put cash into development so are way behind now with resources falling and limited signs of add on production ops.

I think simply logic gets you there The Italian, so trust your instinct.

For Barrick to get a Tier1 mine in Ecuador, they first need to purchase some land and licence blocks... tick... they have done that as of Dec 2023. They then have to engage with locals and get them all on board, they then need environmental testing and permits to test before they can do any drilling what-so-ever. In simple terms... they might discover an Alpala but it's going to take them years. Possiby 10 years+ before they get close to knocking out any production of resources.

That's the reality. There isn't any real way to fast track things in an early adopting mining region. It takes time. That's why after over 10 years+ in Ecuador SOLG's brand is valued. Locals like them. All the eco warriors picked on all ther other licence blocks and left SOLG alone as SOLG had ticked all the right boxes.

If you want a new country entry on a plate... SOLG is it. And that's worth a premium to the usual market benchmark pricing as the folio has a bucket load of permit granted drill ready targets.

Wow ... another 5m traded in first couple of hours or so.

Volume growing and the big hitting likes of Blackrock and co haven't arrived yet. They'll come in again once they realise they won't be getting a slice of the pie in any equity raises.

Talk of rate cuts emerging as early as April now... so Gold will soar higher as rates drop and higher risk stocks become attractive again as money has to move elsewhere to gain growth and that include savings fraternity who are enjoying a safe 5% to 6% + these days. Drop that to 2% and they'll be back to markets again.

Barrick can't say they are interested can they?? That would be stupid. Much easier to say that SOLG does not match their criteria for acquisition targets... and when or if they make a move for SOLG they can say... landscape/politics improved or due to recent CIPA.. that we now meet the criteria lol!

Don't forget, Bristow made that remark before the recent PFS and the 24% IRR. When he made the comment, SOLG had a 19% IRR on bigger capex.

It's all tosh at end of the day as there's not a super major miner out there right now that wouldn't like what SOLG have under the bonnet. They are all scrambling around right now to just get land purchased never mind drill permits.

While nothing is certain in this world, should SOLG announce a sale or full funding and start date for development of Alpala/Cascabel in 2024, then Noboa will undoubtedly prefer that news before he sits down to the table with the IMF. Yes mining is still small in the country and the rev is forecast 10% ish of full GDP but Cascabel could nudge that up 1% or more and those 1% margins make a huge difference when negotiating on debt and loans at a sovereign / gov level.

Ecuador has an opportunity to deliver very decent growth numbers with mining growing in the country in a safe and eco friendly manner of course. Job creation is what the people want but not what the drug cartels want. They want people to be jobless and desperate... it helps them. So there's always a push and pull in countries like South america where cocaine is probably the most profitable resource they export lol!

So Noboa and everyone else are keen to see a tier1 asset given the green light and fully funded. What a result that would be for Noboa. He knows the importance of that especially heading into elections next year.

The force is buiding behind SOLG now rather than against. That's why you'll see a rerate in sp very soon indeed. It coming ... you can feel it and those trying ti suppress it, you can feel their feathers being ruffled after having it all to themselves the last year. Time for change.

Investors are weird ... some are happy to buy in at 12p rather than 7p. Simply because they like a momentum share.

The reality is... Alpala or SOLG are not going be sold or monetised at these low sp levels. Just not going to happen. So if an investor knows value is much higher... then does it matter whether you are buying at 6p or 7p or 8p? Yes and no. But we've seen before with SOLG that investors are 'slow' they often react slowly... like in Dec 23 when the sp was 7p and then in two days it was 11.7p. Moves at these low levels happen fast. But when you get into the 16's or 18's level or even 20's .... there's always going to be a thought in your head of where this was at 5.6p not long ago. This is the 'conditioning' of a phase like the one we are in or have been in for a while. So when a deal lands whether low ball or not... you're thinking... erm.. is tis it or if we say no are we going back to 5.6p? It's a long way down and many have vertigo when the sp is 30p and you've seen 5.6p just months before.

So there is a reason for it and it's to 'condition' investors minds before an offer lands. As simple as that. It's obvious that the sp right now has sweet FA to do with the asset value of Alpala.

We are close now and those that understand volume and markets know that the cat is firmly amongst the pigeons.

And the best bit is that's just ENSA. The rest of folio and Porvenir is worth bucket loads. There could be a handful of Alpala style discoveries in that folio with better grades or easier to mine eg shallow / open pit vs block cave.

I don't mind if ENSA goes for £2bln... sobeit. But I'd like to see what the rest of the folio has as reckon Rio and others might be a continuation of Alpala and may even be the sweet spot. I'd rather not see that lot go for free.

They dumped a few off in the low 7's today just like they dumped a few off in the low 6's (like wildtiger).

It's their job to make it tough for traders but dropping it to 5.6p just before a big news release and the mysterious 75m share block sold or moved to different hands at 6p all spanks of someone knowing this is going much much higher.

It's been a while but there's bees buzzing around the honey pot again and that bodes well.

It moved from 7p to test 11.75p in just two days in late Dec.

When it's not eing farked around with... it's general effort is to rise.

The trouble with the share price at present is that it doesn't represent the asset value at all.

That's why it can move fats and especially when you have news catalysts that concentrate on the asset... like a $3.2bln IPA lol!

We've had a couple initiate recently with rather basic targets of 11p /12p levels but not unsual as a starter postion when printing the note from lows of 6p. But these were issued BEFORE the CIPA so there's room to see these upgraded which is the general idea. House broker has 63p I believe.

After Ecuador/PDAC, I would expect a few more brokers to get some notes out on SOLG and if they don't then Citi/Maxit need to get out there and get that message across to the broker desks.

Interestingly, all the talk at PDAC regarding Ecuador was mostly centred around the biggest investment signing in Ecuador's history with SOLG's CIPA. But apart from the other companies mentioned in the other 6 to 8 deals signed, names like Newmont and BHP were missing in action.

Both are already in Ecuador so might explain why they are not signing up new deals. You could say same for FMG.. with twiggy having a decent acreage under his belt already. But when you look at the period of time that FMG, BHP and Newmont have been in Ecuador and look at the progress they have made... it's almost zero. None of them have discovered a Tier1 mine yet. None.

Barrick's name was perhaps the most mentioned and since signing new deals in Dec 23, throw in Gina R's recent $120m commitment and you can see it's hotting up big time.

Of course, NMM and BHP have a 10% stake in SOLG so you might say they have already placed their bets on the prime asset in Ecuador long ago. But that's not enough for those two. A 10% stake is minor and not going to bolster their growth numbers. They need the entire asset ands if they want to protect from their competitors, then they need bulk of that regional folio too. If they do nothing, it could all be going to Barrick or Rio or a Consortium.

Approaching a technical breakout. If it can break 3.93, it should be off to test 4 again. Last time it tested 4 was July 2023.