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Blackrock still have 15m or 20m shares and they seem to be dumping it regardless of price.

If the mm's have 10m Blackrock order and have 10m Koncave buy order then they'll match it at pre agreed level.

That could be 19p.2p like past weeks or it could be 20.2p or 18.2p etc. MM's have been moving price based on higher volume deals in almost a two book basis. One for pi's and one for ii's.

I think sub 19p might be tested but can't see sub 18p. I think Scotts 17p 30m options suggest even he thought that was great value.

More buyers at sub 20p than at 22.5p that's for sure... for now!

Just ignore the obvious numbskulls. As copper pot or someone else pointed out (moi included) LSE bolster ad space sales and other affinity deals by showing they have a very active BB with lots of traffic and page prints.

These little green lines that I keep getting on my screen are a sign of just click bait.

Use ignore filter or just accept that LSE and other sites likes this need traffic to survive so the 'post generator' types are needed. Just the way it is.

Rodders,

The CGP 5% (post dilution) SOLG stake is held within the CGP sub and as such are not held in treasury. They are available for SOLG to issue to market if they needed to and at 21p+ this would raise around $34m.

No need to raise cash at all so they'll just keep them nice and comfy in the CGP sub.

I might have missed the lowered forecast rns but was surprised on Q1 performance. Significantly down on Gold/Silver and up on copper. I think the move toward copper production will work out well in mid term as think Copper will be rising with demand. That said, considering the cash pile was $37m Dec 21 and is now $10m, (and that's after some high metal pricing periods) it shows the weakened cash generation on lower output. Add to this the huge cash requirements to scale the business up, I can see the debt facility being tapped soon and the stock enter the inevitable development dip or curve, where debt mounts ahead of what will be higher production. Always a period of weakness. Long term, I like the company ambition to move to mid tier producer but that $33m debt facility is not going to enable it. They are going need 3 or 4 x that amount. Where's it going to come from?

The Italian, you are entitled to an opinion as we all are. Blackrock were active buyers ahead of a lasso/solg/bhp/ncm coffee and biscuits meeting. When that event fell through, they began to exit. The last 3%+ they have sold was done in a heavy handed way... most unlike blackrock which know the influence of their selling and how that affects price. I remember we had similar debate over BHP and how a super major like that is too busy to concern themselves with little old SOLG in same way Blackrock have billions and billions to manage. But BHP were found trying to dismantle SOLG BoD's from the inside. They were publicly throwing toys out of the pram with the Royalty deals. Most unlike a super major.

So at end of the day... we'll never know what blackrock were up to. We know they sided with BHP which they have a larger shareholding in. We know they seemed to tinker with instruments before or after SOLG capital raises. Nothing wrong with that... it's what they do... but it does effect price.

At end of the day...two facts matter most as of now. Blackrock are almost out (good riddance) and SOLG are hot property with M&A swirling in sector, metals prices soaring and future looks bright... a lot brighter without Blackrock involved.

And FWIIW... if you ever get time, just look what they were up to with Wood Group. All the TR1's are there. A glimpse of what you usually don't see.

I think the combination of Blackrock selling combined with broader market tensions really weighed on the Share price. Throw in those on the sidelines that were waiting for ISA season to kick in and you have a good buying platform and stock in greater demand.

I said a while ago that Blackrock would likely take through to end of March to fully clear out and was not far off. I think they have about 20m shares left now (they did have 80m+ earlier this year). If Morningstar data a few weeks out... they could be nearer 15m now or lower.

We still have XIB 0.5% short in play. They need to buy back 15million shares. And on a positive note, we have Konwave AG who are up to 17m now after mopping up 6m of stock recently.

Ideally need Konwave and others to soak up the last chunks of Blackrock stock as 20m being sold off may require the MM's to drop the price to get deals matched again. Perhaps XIB will take the stock?? That would be good.

Volume has been decent of late especially across the pond by their standards. No real signs of CGP holders cashing in at all thus far.

A week of consolidation and building support can be very productive and allows for greater upside in future.

All data available via Morningstar.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/solg/ownership

Shorters will be worried about lenders agreeing new terms with no demands to bolster balance sheet via capital raise.

Shorters were banking on lenders being more aggressive but I think the $13bln framework deal essentially delivers the confidence that the debt holders need to kick can down road for 12 months.

April 25th nears and I believe the full years results will be accompanied by the confirmation of 12 month lenders extension.

At present market still thinks (or the shorters) that a chance of equity raise or rights issue is on table. Can't see it myself especially as business outlook is now more bullish heading into H2 and 2024.

DM,

Hedge funds (and II's) still treat copper like a bellwether for bullish or bearish plays on equities. It's been like that for decades. Many instruments and alto's are still linked into that thinking ... DrCopper barometer and all that.

But times are changing and I think the market is reluctant to move from old ways. If you look at crypto... it was the go-to during pandemic due to the Fed Reserve making it clear that they did not want GOLD to spiral. This time around, Crypto is rebuilding but lost some of that early charm, hence PoG doing better albeit still well below where it should be. Central banks really don't like it when PM's are in demand as it causes them headaches. They can control dollar and pound etc... but GOLD is an entity that they can't print or invent from no where although saying that... I doubt the BoE or the FED have gold in storage to support their current holdings lol!

wow... just as demand is going to soar now covid issues over... Chile output drops. Ouch. Perfect storm.

Perhaps SOLG might be better selling 'later' in the year when PM's are doing cartwheels and copper fever at large?? Or perhaps interested buyers might want to get their bids in now rather than wait until PM price chaos.

"To add to woes, Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, said its state-owned mining company Codelco expects output to shrink by 7% in 2023.

This is on top of a 10.6% decline in output in 2022." END

For those investors that like examples of similar companies with assets for development or sale etc take a look at Condor Gold. CNR.L.

This is not ramp or plug for CNR at all. I'm not a holder. But if you look at the asset and process that the company has been through, then you'll see obvious correlations with SOLG.

Even on a chart basis, there are similarities. Whilst the Market caps differ, you can see the stock hit lows and bottom around same period as SOLG. Ironically (just coincidence) but the share price is similar too. In July 22, CNR was 35p levels. Then dipped down to 15p levels. Company announced Strategic Review and then followed that with plan to sell the asset. Then confirmed they were in talks with multiple companies and NDA's signed etc etc. Stock is now testing 33p which is not far off July 22 levels and that's before an offer is presented (or one might not be forthcoming or agreed etc).

So take a look and you can see a pattern of the process in play already.

If SOLG were to follow suit, then we'd hear outcome of SR is to sell and they are in talks with multiple parties etc. Share price should be around 35p on that basis. That's a hunch of course. But CNR one to keep any eye on simply to see what the final offer and run up to the offer does to the sp.

The sp is getting into the traditional or historic SOLG launch pad area. I think the stock has launched from low to mid 20's 3 or 4 times and each time passed 39p/40p levels.

Dilution has occurred over last couple of years but I think most recognise that the 100% ENSA stake post merger more than balances the books on that aspect. So 40p of old is like 40p today with 100% ENSA.

Likely to be Chinese takeaway as lets face it, if or when they finally pen that historic Ecuador trade deal... what a lovely headline it would make to have Chinese takeover SOLG and become effectively become the defect, largest and most influential mining player in the country with world class resources.

Basically that Chinese PM's sorted for next 100 years assuming they strike it lucky with a few others in the folio...

Whoever bags SOLG is in effect gaining close to 10% share (pending mine production of course) of world's entire global copper supply. The Gold and silver is just cream on cake.

Lasso will look like top dog king maker if he delivers Chinese Free trade deal and biggest mining investment/partner deal in entire history of Ecuador mining.

Chile, Peru, Costa Rica and soon to be Ecuador. The US must be spitting bullets.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri

Number 7 appears to have taken place already with Scotty boy bagging 30m shares at 17p.

Amazing how the share price hung around those levels and since Scott got his cheap options, the sp seems to be going great guns.

Timing is everything... isn't it Scott!?

Stunning volume over the pond by their standards

Something cooking for sure.

from May 16th 2023 to May 19th, 2023
Bank of America Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference

Question is.... are we presenting??

PDAC in June too.

H1 ends in around 10 weeks... tick tock Scott.

Better vibes regarding inflation and Fed reserve winning battle starting to filter through to heavily hit inflation related stocks.

Not out of the woods yet, but I wonder if the new CEO has projected the Thai losses on moderate inflation declines, thus opening the door to upside reports / better figures should inflation begin to drop faster than many are factoring in over next 6 months.

A pause to rate rises and possible rate cut toward end of the year will also help PFC.

Feels like the 'low' or bottom point is here and we should nudge higher. Shorters come and go so unless we see a large ADNOC deal appear, I think they'll control their way out of this one but make significantly less than they initially thought. Bigger fish to fry elsewhere once rate rises are done with.

Asfari’s 16% certainly useful but by no means capable of holding off PE firms if they get the ear of some large II holders.

Does Asfari own more than 16% eg through other entities?

If you align the bond charts with the equity charts you'll see that the bonds are trading back at levels last seen in mid Nov 22.

On a comparable basis, PFC equity was priced at 120p mid Nov 22.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26/charts

In theory, there should be some alignment regarding equity and bonds as indicator of confidence levels.

PFC is effectively half the price. And that's way out of kilter and needs to correct upwards.

WoodGroup is a prime example of how the market works. First they manage the debt situation, then they weather the covid and subsequent inflation issues, get the company back to a shape which looks like making some nice dosh again, the market takes no notice what-so-ever and prices the stock at 100p. Then along comes a PE firm which thinks WG all looks in good shape...let's buy it for 240p. In summary, shareholders endure all the hassle in troubled times and when the company looks like it's about to be making good cash again, in swoops the PE boys.

Same will happen to PFC, mark my words. Probably in 2024, just when the company has a nice 6bln order book again.

The days of 500p or 800p are long gone. But there's veery chance PFC can get back to 200p+ before a slime PE firm takes them out at 300p or 400p.

I remember buying Glencore at 150p a share and sweating it when it dropped to 78p in 2016. I decided I would take long term view. In 2018, I flooded the lot at 400p on the button.

Glencore was 580p 3months ago. Stocks have their troubles but if the core business/skill/staff are good at what they do... then inevitably the company recovers.

PFC will be back to the 130's before year end, I'm sure of that. Whether it escapes the hands of PE firms and gets back to 400p+ is another question entirely.

From TA view, the chart has a gap at 72p that needs filling and shorters might actually do better if they let the sp close that gap and then they short some more from 72p or 75p levels. Could be enough to see 63p retested. Sitting around 63p or sub 60p just entices buyers in which is the last thing they want. They want sellers. So obvious place to start seeking sellers would be gap at 72p and hope some traders that bought at 55p levels today help them out.

As stated earlier, I think FY accounts need signing off with a clear 6 month solvency outlook. Most require 12 months these days but depends on which market listing and PFC is FTSE all share, not FTSE 250.

So makes sense for the lenders to agree to extend for 12 months (as not in today's RNS) but confirm or complete negotiations before April 25th publishing of FY Results.

That's 13 days away so you'd think plenty of time assuming all back from extended Easter hols next week.

I think the news on lenders talks or 12 month extension plans is the main reason why the stock had good demand in the low 60's as at this level, the Tennet deal is most certainly not priced in.. eg around mid March stock was between 63p and 70p levels, yet market had no knowledge then of the Tennet $13bln deal nor any knowledge of Lenders extending for 12 months. Lots of positives to take from last few weeks yet clearly not priced in. Today's news not good, but headline figure looks worse until you realise it's over 3 years period on Thai clean oil project. Samsung and Saipem playing hardball no doubt.