Member Info for Fortissimo

If endeavour mining are lining up a bid and want Eric to continue running things (with better pay package) then he'd need to stand down as he would be an insider on that deal and not represent all shareholders interests etc..concert party or in effect MBO.

West Kenya is worth the market cap alone (and more) but will need deep pockets to fully fund the development. It feels to me like Eric knows what's coming and needs to step aside as has a connected interest. Just a guess of course! But no CEO's leaves a company just before a big buyout or when times are good unless there's something else going in his favour.

Just 3 weeks left before all those involved in last years Shanta buyout can bid again. Market rules prohibits a bid from previous bidders for full 6 months. That ended on 14th November 2022. So just 3 weeks to go before 'open season' again.

Yes, some sizeable volume. I wonder if that's Eric offloading his stock now as he's leaving and update today allows him to sell.

Looks like new management and potentially new owners moving in.

Always the case these days... just when a company starts to look like its making money again (eg 100koz) someone swoops in and takes it off the shelf.

Luke and Eric took over Shanta when it was in a dire state and have turned the business around with some some sensible financial approaches and some very smart M&A with West Kenya. It's a puzzle why both have now left the company especially as the difficulties over the last couple of years seem to be behind the business. I do wonder whether the recent failed offer talks caused some issued with major shareholders?? I'm not a Shanta shareholder myself but did hold stock some years ago so always look in with interest. Shame t0 see both go but could suggest that predators might return and Eric can't fight them off this time.

DM, no need to be defensive as wasn't being critical. I think the thread or question on MD&A was started by Orphencopper who in his normal drum way said "There is sod all they can discuss and analyse with all operations shut down… Wondering what it can possibly say" END.

Most of us know what it will say... that was my point. A non event. BoA Metals conference around May 18th more likely to see a new presentation assuming we are presenting there again this year. If we are not presenting... then it does suggest the end game (sale/deal) is very near.

The upcoming MD&A (mid MAY) covers quarterly financial period ended 31 March 2023. So any events from Jan 1st through to March 31st. So they'll cover off completion of merger and delisting etc, issuing of shares blah blah blah. Prob some ongoing field studies, rock chip samples blah blah blah. And of course some further studies on Alpala. Pretty much all of it is already outlined or forecast in the last MD&A. So I can't see any surprises and MD&A more a formality for market regs than an update.

If multiple NDA's have been signed and they are in discussions with buyers or partners etc, none of it has to be disclosed (unless they want to) as the discussions likely to be by 3rd party eg Maxit and as such may not involve 'management' discussion' until Maxit have presented their workings or progress update to the BoD's.

So I doubt the MD&A reveal anything other than what we already know.

The MD&A for April 1st through to June 30th will be the one to watch assuming we have had zero news. I doubt the latter, but pressure to deliver will be building toward June for sure.

Market backdrop looks set to improve from H2 onwards as inflation dips and rate rises slow or end. PM's should be doing well as globe gets back to growing GDP after contractions and post covid woes.

Anything on Ecuador Gov or mining discussions will likely be released before MD&A if meaningful otherwise if continued talks etc, then it will say just that.

Would be good to see Ecuador & Chinese sign FTD in next few weeks or couple of months etc.I just get the feeling that we might be held back (hands tied) until that landmark and historic globally significant deal is officially pen'd.

How can anyone assume that the takeout price is 35p to 40p based on SOLG issuing the CFO options at 22p average?

That's nonsense.

If you look at the average placing price over the last few years to pi's and ii's), it ranges from 21p through to 26p. Forget BHP's 45p and Valuestone's 32p issues. So on average basis, I think the CFO options are fair, inline with what has been given to II's and PI's in the past and as such all treated fairly. Scott's 30m at 17p is the laughable one. But issuing an RNS at 6pm+ on a Friday eve is far worse than both. It's an admission of embarrassment... an admission that they would like to sneak that kind f news through and an admission that they know PI's and II's are about to jump down their necks big time if they do not deliver some decent news or progress update pronto.

We had the RNS on Scott some weeks ago and that intimated performance criteria updates coming at some point. Where are they? It was signalled then that more options to 'staff' would be issued. So all in all, news not surprising, 6m at 22p reasonable and takeover price remains exactly as it was before options issues... based on the Asset and in ground industry prices.

Management rarely price options at significant premium to the sp when in the stages of potentially flogging the business. Of course they will seize the opportunity to capitalise on the self induced low sp. By design... it suits them. But I guess the question is this.... is that it? Is that the last of the feather nesting? Can we now get on with it and reveal all now everyone on inside is nicely positioned??

Bluudy hope so!

Nothing of major significance has come from MENA region since PFC 'did their time'. One Algerian contact and that's it. So either ADNOC and others are sitting on their hands or they have a bucket load of tenders to be putting out there. I do wonder what the MENA region thinks about PFC and other firms doing 'green' projects which ultimately will devalue the dirty fossil fuels in the future. Does ADNOC hold a grudge against firms that are very active across the green infrastructure landscape?

I'd like to see some ADNOC deals come our way now that we are at least 12months+ on from when ADNOC lifted our tendering ban.

The market will get proper excited if the order book starts to fill again with MENA region deals.

200p+ (3 bagger+) would not be out of question considering stock was just shy around the £2 mark 2 years ago.

It's just market mechanics in the way at the present moment. 3% shorters over 0.5% and plenty more below that level that are desperate not to let PFC take off on a technical basis. As an example, if PFC got up to high 80's or even early 90's then FTSE250 entry occurs and that sees forced fund buyers come into the picture.

So there are many reasons why the price is being played with at present. As with Wood Group, the more PFC stabilise the business and strengthen the order book the more likely PE firms and other predators will be prowling. PFC is an absolute steal right now for any out fit that wants major inroads into EU infrastructure spend and Mena region. Asfari doesn't hold as much as he used to so PFC not immune from unwanted approaches.

Interestingly, I see Dutch blocked any Chinese involvement in the areas that are around them for apparent security reasons. If this becomes a norm trend across globe then PFC are going to be in high demand. Don't get me wrong... Chinese get the job done but looks to me like South Americas is their major interest now.

actually correction to last post... it's $33 billion in total awards.

Wow! So the 8 billion in addition to the 25billion last noted.

The original deal signed with Hitachi and PFC was for 13 billion. It says total issued thus far on tennet is 25billion. So even with the 8 billion award yesterday, there's clearly another 4 billion that has been issued.

The 8 billion from yesterday appears to have been spread over 3 consortiums and not just Hitachi / PFC. So the actual net award to PFC might be a 3rd of that or could be less. Eitherway, certainly worthy of an RNS and I suspect if the news broke late yesterday/thursday then something will be pen'd to go on Monday or Tuesday ahead of results on Thursday.

Terrific news and one of many mega large energy infrastructure projects to kick off across the globe. PFC well place to benefit.

Good find CSB

Absolute brilliant news. As I said a few days ago, the lenders extension likely to come along or with the FY results as the latter can't be signed off without 'going concern' and overview on next 6months written in. Extending lending facilities ultimately enables auditors /accounts to complete that outlook and that's why it's likely to take an extra day to complete FY results.

The Tenet deal without a doubt has given lenders the confidence they needed. Now the market can price in this good news and the new eco can go about business with a very nice clean slate.

Inflation and legacy contract issues still remain but the forward looking order book is looking really good. New tenders and contract wins might well be executed now that partners know Petrofac are in solid position. One major concern just got lifted for 12 months. Brilliant news.

Yep, looks like Astaris want out before April 25th results day. I think they know a lenders deal extension will be RNS'd at same time and if no strings attached, then PFC should bounce significantly higher with debt issues resolved.

Short tracker often a day behind so Astaris might be sub 0.5p today. They've done well to get 0.5% closed out without too much sp action to the upside.

I'm sure BHP would say that wouldn't they!

As per the story posted yesterday about Anglo American getting approvals for underground mining in Chile... it's clear that the lefty government are keen on mining just like the right winged parties. Not much difference despite what some posters suggest.

Each super major likes to strong arm their way and yet best deal possible especially if investing billions in a country that stands to gain around 50% of the profits. Partners as they say... hence all mining companies should expect stability and support from governments and there are international recognised laws that protect both parties.

I remember Cairn going to arbitration some years ago with Indian Government and guess who won... Cairn... to the tune of $1bln+.

Oh... and to all involved..stop the petty squabbling. How are old are you?

Looks like they are very keen on copper. Mmm!

https://www.forexlive.com/news/g7-communique-highlights-push-to-speed-up-energy-transition-eyes-on-copper-20230416/

Astaris have been trying to trade their way out of a bit of a mess. They shorted below 60p and as such have had to apply weights in the 70's and 80's to try and get some sort of parity or breakeven.

I think most shorters want to be out (or reduced) before FY results on April 25th. Just a hunch but think new CEO might announce finalisation of lenders agreement on same day and that will draw a line under the 'past petrofac' woes and sets the slate clean for the recovery/rebound.

Not long for shorters to reduce before April 25th so could see some nice sharp moves higher as we end week.

TheItalian

Bang in Porvenir and Tandy (both have added value that were not there in 2017 etc) and then throw in the simple fact that SOLG have the largest licence folio in Ecuador which at present has no cadestre which means 'doors closed' to new licence rewards so any majors will have to acquire existing blocks.

You never know... you might get your conservative value expectations up to 55p to 60p ranges. Not bad considering you were looking at 30p to 35p. There's no way on this planet that a Tier1 mine and company (as a whole) like SOLG are going to be sold for 35p. Way too cheap. ENSA might go for that in a poor market but with PM's looking 'electric' right now, I very much doubt it. Still... better to lower expectations and then you'll be much happier when exceeded.

Bargain levels earlier at 19.3p but very little stock on offer. After a decent run over last few weeks, consolidation period welcome. A close above 20p today might see some traders come back in again.

Not long now until the grande reveal by SOLG BoD's as H1 ends soon and that was their deadline for the SR.

Strap yourselves in... next month and half should be very interesting indeed.

See they have reached an agreement with Chile government on block cave project.

Seems like even the most leftist of President's, Gabriel Boric understands mining is required if you want to pay the bills.

Anglo keen to get Chile's copper production higher ... I wonder why lol!

Ecuador must be looking very attractive right now to a number of summer majors. Left or right governments all want the Wonga!

"LBIP is a multi-billion dollar project to develop the next phase of the existing open pit within Los Bronces' operating site and replace future lower grade ore by accessing higher grade ore from a new underground section of the mine. The project uses the mine's existing processing facilities, optimises water efficiency, has no impact on glaciers and requires no additional fresh water or tailings facilities.
Following the receipt of the environmental permit, Anglo American will continue to progress the project through its pre-feasibility stages towards submission for approval by the Anglo American Board in due course." END.

I think it's down to SOLG management to deliver news or updates that force the mm's to rerate the share price. It's entirely fair for the mm's to mark down or price the stock at low levels if they feel there is zero news and weak demand.

We are just 10 weeks away from end of H1 and despite the MD&A stating that there was a planned $5m+ for regional exploration... where is it?? I genuinely don't understand why SOLG haven't just used $2m or so to drill a few holes on Rio or another target. Unless of course permits and the locals are making it hard for them. Eitherway, even if plans are to split the company and put exploration into a newco or vice versa with ensa etc... it wouldn't hurt to drill a few holes and use some of the workforce which you are paying a salary to!