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Bodes well for SOLG. Think we have some Alpala tangerines in the mix don't we? If not, then have to d with the gold and copper.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/best-3-commodities-to-invest-in-q3-230517

Elections take time to organise so likely to see a decent 3 to 4 month period of election fanfare with Lasso already saying he'll cut taxes. The farcical impeachment is over so that means the corrupt games played by Correa are not going to work. I don't think he wants an election so soon. Ironically, it might well accelerate Maxit's work as buyers seek to secure Alpala deal before change of hands in political terms. Bit like the Chinese signing the FTA in a hurray lol!

The guys who recently signed a $300m royalty deal with Lumina clearly weren't bothered by the politics. Lasso news broke at around 2pm today and sp didn't move much at all so market non plussed too.

Pre elections.... a big mining deal delivering jobs and money to Ecuadorian people really would be a big headline for Lasso and co. We might get some decent news over the next few months as if there was ever a time to deliver it... pre elections is it.

Addicknt, I think the spin theory has been the favoured or most expected one for sometime now. As we know SOLG is primarily an exploration business that struck it big with Cascabel. If you look at how the business has been run for the last coupe of years then it's effectively already operating as TWO different companies. We've had funds raised for ENSA/Cascabel that have been ring fenced and funds raised for ongoing exploration. That's the clear issue being played out there right in front of us.

You can't have a company that continually 'ring fences' cash raises under the same roof as each part of the business carries risk both negative and positives which can affect the investment in both.

Far simpler all round (including in accounting terms and staff based costs) to split the business now into a development company eg ENSA and the exploration company... SOLG. That way they can get some market froth value for the exploration side of the business which has for a while seen limited share price growth even though they have devolved the likes of Porvenir and Tandy, both of which have sizeable resources and easier to mine.

ENSA is a big ticket item. It's not just the wonga required for shareholders to hand it over to a buyer or partner... it's the $3bln to $4bln+ to fund the asset. Any buyer has to pump close to $6bln into it.

I think the interesting point from the MD&A is the 'phased' discussion. This spanks of the 'chinese' and follows exactly the same format as Mirador. Start off with the open pit (Tandy) and get some infrastructure moving while doing the mine shaft investigations on block caving. That could see a breakeven on spend within 3 years... even some profits but it's neutralish. That could cover approx $1bln of the development leaving the block cave work to kick in with a rev stream from year 3 onwards via the open pit mining development. I'd rather see ENSA SOLD lock stock and barrel but it might end up being a partnered deal for the next 3 years with staged or phased % interests purchased by partner as development progresses. It shares the risk but also shares the upside. That's not fast and smart.... that's long and risky. So I hope they don't opt for that version and instead go for the ENSA sale in full and let the buyer do the phased planning. The trouble is... Lasso wants it moving fast... Chinese clearly keen but don't rush things and then there's BHP... they are the most likely candidate to fast track ENSA rather than phase it. I guess we'll find out post Sept or October whether Newmont want to sell NCM's 10% stake. I'm not sure how well they get on with BHP but if they are friendly, then I suspect BHP will get that 10% stake. With 20% holding, could they acquire the extra 10%+ that would potentially stick a large spoke in the wheel of a takeover??

Closed unchanged on TSX bubble. Not sure I would call it going down the pan lol!

Bozi, is the an investment out there which you have money on which you are remotely positive about?? Seems to me that you invest in companies that you absolutely despise! Nice strategy if it works for you but from what I can, you certainly do pick them!

I think shareholders here have plenty to be excited about. Tier 1 mines are rare these days especially with the box of metals that Alpala has tucked away in them hills.

Chin up... you'll make some dough at some point.

Mm's must be starving

Blackrock taken a breather or our buyer gone awol.

In typical SOLG style, we'll probably get 9m block traded in auction lol!

Worst volume I think I've ever seen on SOLG. 119k traded?

That's almost TSX levels.

If they need to spin out some regionals into newco then they could do that via Cornerstone sub although it would require a listing.

Movement indeed but could be just MM's coming clean prior to printing a nice large chunky trade number after the bell. 12m sold at 19p last week and buyer deal done at 18.5p today?? Or over next few days. Definite trend being deployed by mm's of late. Low 18's seem a fishing trip for bored pi's and 19p levels for the ii's.

At end of the day... I'm surprised Maxit hasn't scooped up 12m shares+ at 18p levels as not far off their recent placing price. But guess their hands might be tied due to insider knowledge ho ho ho ho!

Sharketmare,

It's complicated but if you google US concerns over China influence in Ecuador or South America's you'll find bucket loads to read up on.

Don't get confused between how they battle things out in politics vs how the news translates or facilitates certain individuals interests. It's well documented that Rafael Correa is behind the destabilisation. The guy is so corrupt that it makes it laughable that he thinks he has a good chance of returning lol while trying to fabricate stuff around Lasso.

We live in funny times where reality used to be a friend of mine. PM Dawn.

Addicknt, I think you can add Orpherncopper to that post too.

He has no faith in Maxit getting the job done either.

All these apparent investors putting money in companies they have no faith in.

I think they need help!

Maxit and Citi are dealing with the SR and negotiations as far as we've been informed.

What's less people in the SOLG office got to do with anything?

Need to try a bit harder Orpherncopper. But I fear your efforts are futile. Maxit will deliver. You'll see.

SharketMare,

The US don't like the idea of an Ecuador / Chinese FTD. The rest is up to you how you view it all.

News these days is often played around with. Look at Putin. Apparently a drone over the Kremlin tried to knock him off. The irony in this is that the the Kremlin actually allowed a Drone to be right above it. Seriously... if it's that easy to target Russia... then Putin should be embarrassed. Of course it is nonsense news... as there's no way a Drone would get within 100 miles of the Kremlin.

But I guess Putin has to spin something to justify 'what's coming next'.

If the Chinese had any sense, they'd be signing that FTD pretty quick wouldn't they?? Bodes well for SOLG.Don't you agree?

Further to my point re Asfari and MENA region... ironically... getting a few ADNOC or MENA deals done this year might well help prevent an unwanted takeover for reasons mentioned earlier.

There is a danger that if PFC seem independent of ADNOC deals and more Europe focused, then they do become easy prey.

Interesting to note that volume over last 5 days has been almost 50% higher than the average weight over last 12months. Also, the last time PFC had these heavy volume and was buy side / share price increasing was Sept 21 and the move from 103p to test 161p.

Volume is your friend and the bullish weights put PFC on platform to surge much higher. Early bird gets the worm here and that op will soon be gone especially if they announce a nice chunky ADNOC deal next.

Personally, if I were Hitachi... I would just take out Petrofac for £1bln or 200p a share and grab 100% of that Tenet deal plus everything else that comes with it.

PFC would have a hard job defending a 200p bid right now and even Asfari's 16% would not be enough to hold that off. Previously in the old days, PFC was very much about Asfari and his MENA region buddies. Hence no point trying to take the business out as those buddy contracts would just end. But now PFC is far more than Asfari's MENA region. Europe is looking a real cracker for infrastructure spend over next decade as they seek to remove the poison pill that is Russian energy dependence.

PFC are vulnerable right now as that Tenet deal gives any buyer the assurance they need. That said, the deal may have also been done deliberately to spread the risk across two companies rather than one... so maybe Hitachi can't go for it??

But I reckon someone else will. And what if Wood group deal falls through?? Would Apollo opt for PFC as much cheaper??

Ortherncopper, you've posted about as much negative stuff as you can on Ecuador so not surprised to see you a bit blinded by what's really going on. Plenty of US influence keen to disrupt Ecuador Chinese FTD that's for sure. But everything else is just the usual mud slinging stuff that goes on in South American politics. Look back a few years and you'll find same old stories being cooked up by various interested parties keen to try and regain some power.

The BBC is a mouth piece for the UK government and you can trust that at your peril.

Your best bet is to try and get a contact on the ground in Ecuador. I have one. And his view is enlightening to say the least. Be careful what you read these days.

TheItalian,

Forget price. Too many investors are fixated with share prices. Focus on the asset. Focus on the reality that Tier 1 assets never go cheap. They rarely stay in the minnows hands and certainly not with 100% ownership.

That's what you have to go on. You have billions of copper and gold both metals set to be high in demand in coming years. You have a market currently processing mergers and acquisitions from BHP/OZ minerals to Newmont / Newcrest and many more. You have a solid political and robust Ecuador background with historic Chinese FTD on cusp of being signed. A president in Lasso keen on business and keen to deliver on his electoral promises of 'open for international business'.

That's what you have. It's all there. What you don't have is the detail on any interested parties or sensitive info on negotiations. And there's a reason for that.

You have one of greatest copper/gold discoveries in decades. You can focus on that or you can focus on some pony stock market incapable of even valuing its own banks correctly.

The Italian,

What's the 'real market'? Is the real market the one that values a stock like Noront at 23cents and then a few months later it's bought out for 110 cents? Or FSTE 250 stock Wood Group real market price some months ago 100p, few months later buyer offers 240p.

I think you'll find there are two markets out there and one is real and the other is a complete farce. You only really know the 'true market' when an offer comes in and is accepted. There used to be a timeline ago before also bots, CFD's spread bets and so on when stocks were valued correctly and buyers or acquisitions expected but with a 30% premium at best. There used to be a time when the stock market as a whole was expected to rise about 3% to 4% per year. These days due to the casino bookies like city index IG et al, the FTSE or DOW can do that in an afternoon session.

It's supposed to be a highly sophisticated market with very smart individuals out there deserving of their millions and millions of bonuses. Yet for some reason, a simple fruit market store can value its stock much better. The Housing market can value stock much better. The car industry can value its stock much better. The farming industry can value its stock much better. But the stock market?? Well... don't go there looking for an expert valuation lol! Those days have past. You'd be better off going to Ladbrokes and even they are better at valuing the odds of success or failure.

Bonkersman,

Do you have a reference to the analyst target of 111p? Thanks.