Member Info for Fortissimo

We should get an inkling on Blackrock's movements with regard their 20m of shares (rough estimate) when Morningstar data released tomorrow. They sold down around 40m shares the previous month so I'm hoping they are cleared now. SOLG's volume has been lighter so larger II movements lacking now.

Blackrock's 'selling' has been a heavy weight on the sp so might see some buying (by some) tomorrow if Blackrock fully cleared out.

Green lines galore today... must mean one thing... SOLG share price up.

They are working hard. Shame this BB isn't policed in the same way the GGP is policed by LSE.

Still... there's not much to say so just let the kids play in the sand together.

Getting the business financed for 12months or 18months+ with CGP 100m SOLG shares available for issue was key to giving the business some much needed breathing space. Ecuador clearly has some issues at present so perhaps the 'pause' on exploration is not just sensible from a cash burn point of view but may also be handcuffed on permits for now.

Cash burn is a tricky one to measure as SOLG are often 'creative' with booking capital costs in certain periods. For instance, roughly speaking the business raised $86m in funds around early to late Nov 22. The recent MD&A which covered period from Dec 31st through to March 31st highlighted a cash balance of $48m.

So that's quite a wedge gone in just 4 months. My guess is that cash burn is running at nearer $4m to $5m per month. That's still very high for a company seemingly doing zero exploration and minimal optimisation work on Alpala.

Thus far, I've yet to see any evidence that Scott and team have 'saved' shareholders cash as to date the burn looks exactly as it was under old management. But as I said, should caveat this with the fact that SOLG do account for things in a flexible way. For instance... what was our 'true' cash balance at the time for the finance raise in late 2022? It must have been close to zero or even running in the red??

The numbers did add up as per the last PFS so not sure what Irwin means here. The PFS was based on that 22% (don't quote me on it) of the total resource! If that isn't a smaller sized development then what is? 10% of resource lol!

The IRR does need to be above 20% even on the lower risk metric. So perhaps he's alluding to this. The problem Maxit and Citi have right now is the shift in inflation numbers from the last PFS. Effectively 5 to 10% higher. I suspect any buyer or JV partner will want a more up-to-date view as that's suits their bargaining right now. Hence, it makes sense for SOLG to bide their time while waiting for inflation numbers to drop back. They can downscale some parts of the mine plan and factor in Tandy aspects but only with a decent inflation backdrop. I believe the main reason for shelving the PFS2 and Porvenir MRE update was solely down to poor metrics based on inflation which was at globally at its highest around Nov/Dec 22. Basically all the hard work on Tandy and some other surrounding areas on Alpala became 'neutral' rather than 'accretive' as hoped. As inflation drops the benefits of Tandy will come forward. Anyway... what's the rush?? Does it matter if it gets sold next month or in Dec this year? Not really, but it might enhance the price more to wait for the right time. That time might have been Jan / Feb this year when viewed from a stance in Sept 22. But things change, and you have to adapt to changing market metrics. Bob's fast and smart phrase also means that 'fast' might enable you to realise that the 'smart' play is to bide your time more. SOLG have cash through to end of the year and another 100m shares to place if when required which if I was a cynic... I would say are another nice nest feathering opportunity for Maxit et all if or when they know a deal is close. Just gift another 100m shares to their buddies at 17p lol! and then flog the business for 51p. Easy money.

"Seems like there is no rush to be pushing mining licenses through at the moment.. unfortunately"

Yes, very true, 'new' mining licences looking rare as hen teeth. Which kinda makes those with licences in areas that are not disputed rather valuable don't you think?? Anyone know of a company with lots of these rare licences in Ecuador? Even Fortescue, Anglo American and Rio Tinto seem to be struggling to find licence blocks that are undisputed.

Bodes well for SOLG.

But let's not dwell on the positives... let's stick with the negatives as far better for BB discussion and our investments. Sic.

True, you are entitled to spout whatever you like. And you usually do.... in a negative way. I do wonder why you even bother visiting this BB anymore as you clearly have such a poor view of SOLG that you couldn't possibly be invested. No one in their right mind would be invested in SOLG based on your mandrake and views of the company.

So why you still hanging around like a musky old sock?

Ortherncopper, you at it again?? Just making it up as you go along old boy.

Lets take your recent nonsense FACT CHECK IT.....

"It feels like the little guys has been shafted" WHY?? What exactly has happened or changed since we acquired 100% ENSA and the royalty deal to fully fund for 12months+ as the little guy most certainly has been protected. What's changed then??

Next up... "My guess is any decent price rise from here, as a result of whatever reason, will probably see a stampede to exit".

WHY?? The next decent price rise might well be the precursor to the big ONE... you know... the one where Tier1 global asset gets sold?

And last one

"If Red and Bubble, the staunch £1 plus cheerleaders were willing to exit circa 17p it doesn’t bode well."

Seriously ... you are getting desperate now. No offence to Bubble but he's not exactly Irwin or Bob or BHP is he? As for red knight... forget it. Zero importance.

Let me know of Bob, Irwin and co are selling up and I might pay attention but citing two numpties from a BB as a benchmark for boding well or not... oh dear... scraping barrel again Orphencopper. And guess what.... you are still a SOLG holder lol!

You really couldn't make it up.... or well... you just have and continually do!

There are no Tier 1 mines being developed in Ecuador at present. It's a mining infant in terms of the commercial sales. Mirador kicked off 4 years ago and has been steadily building higher production numbers with the next step up phase being muted recently.

I mentioned a year ago or more that I actually thought Tandy or Porvenir might be producing first ore well before Alpala. Why? Because it's easier to finance yet still very profitable. SOLG might be exploring the possibility of having two open pit easy profit mines producing in tandem. One in the South and one in the North. Meanwhile ongoing studies like mine shaft investigations can kick off at Alpala. These could take 2 years to complete and derisk the mine plan considerably.

It's simple really... if you can't finance a huge 25mt mine then what do you do? You go for a much smaller easy to mine project which can still deliver around 150koz gold and copper equivalent. Combined, on a mixed metal basis it could be around 250koz. That's £750m to £1bln market cap territory assuming 100% ENSA and moderate finance whether royalty or loan deals. Then you have Alpala Tier1 mine in the background steadily being derisked which is worth around another £75om based on previous market / share price reactions to the asset. So that's £1.5bln market cap and that's building on the low hanging fruits.

What's not to like about 50p a share with minimal dilution and risk involved.

Porvenir and Tandy could see us generating enough free cash flow to literally pre finance majority of mine shaft works and some. Alpala would effectively be 30% financed through the smaller folio developments.

I'd doubt we'd get that far as genuinely believe BHP or another will take us out well before we see first gold pour on Tandy or Porvenir. Both of which could be producing in 2 years time.

Lets see what they come up with but lets face it... Porvenir and Tandy are worth our current market cap right now and there's zero risk in project terms with seeing them developed. The market hasn't woken up to that idea as SOLG have yet to present it as plausible. And remember, Chinese are already very interested in Porvenir as it's their kind of mine as being close to their infrastructure.

SharketMare, where's your trade today? Minor volume today and you sold up? You obviously didn't have many shares then?

FWIIW, I've bought over 600k of stock since the Lasso news.

Remember, the strongest tool SOLG have to wave in front of a buyer is the 'go it alone tool'. The likes of BHP and others really don't like that one. Franco, Mitsui and Chinese like it though. Don't thinker a moment that talking of developing Alpala is a negative thing. If it resembles a JV deal and early profits via shallow mining at Tandy then it could be great news for all. And remember.... until SOLG actively filed out something major on the asset (and I mean more than a 1% or 2% royalty... then and only then will BHP start to make a move.

The last thing you want to do when selling an asset is look like you are stuffed and can't finance it it. SOLG can finance a smaller project... and that might be the way forwards. Like Mirador... start small and build higher. Derisk as you go. Trouble is predators out there won't like that one bit ... so it has several benefits and one is it draws out a buyer or bid.

Nice to see a weighty one published during market hours.

A more bullish message perhaps?

All the best Bubble....there are no 'risk-free' bets or investments in the markets but there are some boring dividend low profit stocks out there that are safer than SOLG. Just don't plough all your dosh into fragile or volatile stocks like HARL and others.

You might be better just sitting things out for a year and wait for inflation woes to pass.

Never like to see investors (long term) depart near the end game only then to repeat poor choices on other stocks.

Maybe avoid 'growth stocks' entirely and then you'll it less stressful.

Farewell. ATB.

Shorters are most certainly not gods. Just take a look at the news headlines around Carl Icahn today. Lost about $9bln playing around with some silly shorting ideas.

Ouch... and he was supposed to know what he was doing! He makes Astaris Capital Management look like a professional outfit lol!

I'm no sure where you got your 37% number from but the 49p of old is irrelevant. The shorts data is freely available on a daily basis and if you follow the inflows and outflows by a handful of short players over the 0.5% declaration level, you see that many have reduced and exited and some new ones have come in with moderate positions of less than 0.9%. They tend to play around with 0.01%. It's minor stuff but if using alto's or bots can be enough to see decent 3p to 4p swings on PFC.

After that $13bln Tenet deal, gone are the days of shorters dreams of 49p lol!

Technically, the shorters would be better closing out around these levels and then taking a breather and letting the sp return to recent highs of mid to high 80's. Than short from that point. With more and more contract win news RNS's, the dips below 70p will be short lived. It's becoming harder for the shorts to get this down to their preferred sub 65p level.

At end of the day, it doesn't really matter whether the hedge funds or shorters/traders make their 10p swings from 60p to 70p or in the range of 80p to 90p. It's all about the swing or trading opportunity to them. The price doesn't matter that much. Obviously at lower 60's, 10% swing is up to 67p/68p. In the 80's, a 10% swing is to the 88's.

If the sp languishes for too much longer sub 80p levels then I can't see why Apollo wouldn't take an opportunistic pop at PFC. They would have learned a great deal from the WG experience.

Sadly for long termers, I could see 150p to 170p pitched offer winning through in these short term viewed markets. PFC is worth 300p but might take until late 2025 before it gets back there. So Apollo bound to be interested based on typical 3 year to 5 year business plan.

Ecuador was due to go to the elections in Feb 2025. Any buyer of Alpala will know this. Just like they know Ecuador will go into elections in 2029 after that and 2034 and so on. Alpala is a 30 to 50 year mine. Mirador whilst much smaller has been running 'production' during Correa reign in 2019 through to Lasso now. They've not been effected. Why would they?

At end of the day, political is 'heated' in South America but 99% of the time business remains unaffected. Yes, you will get some constant lefty governments upping taxes nominees from time to time but it rarely lasts. Even UK ups taxes on likes of BP and Shell et al when prices are high although to be hints it's lip service stuff and more Storyville headlines for Tories rather than real deliverable action.

For the Chinese, they have a way of being the sugar daddy for Ecuador - it gives them the unique position of holding 'debt' as leverage tool. The chinese would be the best bet for Alpala if you were going on the basis of who would carry the most power with an Ecuador gov. China or BHP or Anglo etc. China wins hands down.

We've had left and right already in Ecuador running the show and it's not effected SOLG at all. The left are pro mining and the right are pro mining. And let's face it, with high inflation and post covid woes... every country out there needs big business to do well and boosters to GDP. Ecuador people want better wages. They want lower prices on day to day items. A new government are going to need loads of wonga coming in if they want to stay in power beyond Feb 2025. So I see the future as bullish for mining in Ecuador on that basis alone.

Good to see the bonds back in demand. They had been trading sideways for an extended period. As PFC's future continues to brighten, I think these bonds will become in high demand as the value vs risk reward and yield return are compelling. You'll need £200k to get a foot in though.

I had thought they might go for a new bond issue this month which might explain the sideways action. Think they'd better to wait until Q3 as rates might start to drop globally around this time.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26

Ecuador and Lasso issues have been going on for over 6months now. For the market to suddenly wake up to it is a hilarious.

In 90 days time post elections, it's not going to be any more stable than it was before but you might have someone else in power that suits certain US or China policies lol!

In 1 years time it not going to be any more stable than it is now. In 3 years time exactly the same. In fact, it's just going to repeat what's been going on for the last two decades.

So why of why is SOLG having a 10% down day?

As I said, it's already baked in into the sub 20p price just as it was baked into the 42p price post Porvenir hole 1 news. Or 40p levels post PFS. Stability certainly wasn't baked in lol!

If you look at Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Chile and so on... all these countries seem to flip between far right to far left and corruption/volatility is central to their governments.... sad but true. Yet look at all the super major mining companies involved with these countries. It's just par for the course. These countries need the international miners and vice versa. That's how it has been for decades and decades.

To suggest that the likes of China or some super majors will not be interested in Ecuador because of the political uncertainty is naive at best. It's baked in. All super majors are well used to dealing with these South American countries. And let's face it... they don't have a choice. Mining in and around Russia looks a no-go area now. Metals are high demand and shortages loom around the corner. Where are the majors going to go to get their copper? Where are China going?

So I don't buy the sudden negative spin. It's already baked in. If we were mining in Australia we'd be £3bln market cap wouldn't we. Instead we are scrapping £500m on a good day. Why? Because we have an asset in Ecuador and the market has already discounted the price because of it.

Finally, it's well known that Alpala will be a 5 decade long project for whoever takes it on. In that time, it's likely you'll see at least 10 to 12 presidents or 10 to 12 major political changes.

Mirador has been producing through several changes of political powers and all seems fine there. Chinese heavily involved there to so well aware of the risk. Not to mention the historic FTA signed recently.

Will recent events affect the SR process?? Possibly ... but that might be for the better as interested parties might just decide to get this tied up before new gov comes into power. Possession 9 tenths of the law etc etc.

Plenty sniffing around Ecuador so no wonder it's seeing certain entities trying to secure powerful controls over the country and that includes the US and Canada.

Have a read of the below

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/as-lasso-flails-ottawa-pushes-for-more-canadian-mining-in-ecuador

Markets in general seem so sloppy. News on Lasso came out at 2pm yesterday and the sp didn't budge much at all. Slight move down at 4pm but seriously.... 10% down the day after is like the Market missed it yesterday.

Or today's effort is a bit fake. Yes there are risks but it's going to be 90 days+ before elections even begin to get underway. The market was already pricing in some hesitancy at sub 18p with the Lasso Impeachment shenanigans.

Markets bit slow to the ball these days.

I'm expecting more of these deals to drop as the preferred bidder books are swelling for PFC. They said in Dec that they had loads lined up and these deals are now rolling in. Rerate long overdue as PFC delivers on promises at last. Now only question is will Apollo switch focus to PFC and try and take company out before recovery story becomes very clear and profits start surging again. Poor legacy deals now almost done and inflation has to start dropping faster now rate hikes are at multi year highs.