Member Info for Fortissimo

We've been told there is a new website due to be released and I can't believe that's just going to be a redesign of the content already up there. More likely that there is some strategy to be communicated across that medium likely with more multimedia or drone style video etc so we can all see the expanse of Alpala and other target info on regionals. Might be a prequel to the split of the business being exploration focused (part one) and then ENSA part deux!

Just a guess!

DM, I know what you mean. But it's the SR outcome that is really what we are all awaiting. That's where we'll get the main insight.... not through some investor meet non RNS hand stroking event.

PI's can be like little children that need constant reassurance, the odd sweetie or treat to keep them quiet. Meanwhile the investors with the real fire power and importance (being Chinese based or fund based) care not a jot for Ecuador politics, care not about little strokes of PR... they instead have eyes firmly on the assets and are ploughing millions and millions into their investments.

Retail investors are excitable, they watch stock prices daily... they often need a fix as many are gamblers or have those traits. It's unfortunate but II's are very different. And I'm afraid to say it, but SOLG management will do what they feel is strategically important to the business and not about making bored pi's feel better.

That's all very well addicknt, but surely not at the expense of giving our potential buyers or partners an advantage. SOLG's current position is a bit like a game of poker. Surely you not asking Scott to show his hand are you??

I think you'll have to accept that sometimes it's not sensible or possible to be as candid as you desire.

I guess the clearest sense of direction would be the outcome of the SR and I can assure you won't be getting that from him not without an RNS before hand.

Be more sensible and patient about your demands at this acute time in SOLG's history.

One thing is sure, there's a lot of green lines appearing on the bb these days which just coincides with the chinese stake building in SOLG. The trolls are here to keep the price low. They don't want it running away just yet.

The more the trolls/green lines post, the more likely a takeover or asset sale looms.

No one sits on a BB hours on end trying to dismiss the bullish story for SOLG without being paid to do so. No one is that stupid or deranged. It bodes well and the more effort they put in the more nervous they become.

The sentiment is rising here and it's all looking bright. Very happy with my 600k I added or took off Redknights/bubbles.sharketmare's hands at 15p/16p.

Https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/14/eight-presidential-candidates-enter-ecuadors-early-election-race

Nice to see a women in the mix. She looks like she could win it assuming Correa's still carries weight.

It would take a brave man to do an investor meet like that and not have good news or something bullish to spin. SOLG don't normally like doing investor meetings unless they have good news of course.

New website launch coming over the next week or so. Looks like we might be about to get some clear direction at last.

"The copper industry is seeing a wave of deals amid surging demand and tight supply of the red metal that is anchoring the global green energy transition." END

Yep, M&A swirling around the bigger players right now.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/first-quantum-shuns-barrick-golds-informal-takeover-offer-bloomberg-news-2023-06-15/

Who wudda funked it.... Barrick after copper. Mmmm!

As I said, looks pre agreed (at 9p) hence why the mm's marked it down this morning. Odey had 123m so might be a few more to come. Question is... who's the buyer? If it's the chinese outfits that tried a bid last year the they may have snaffled 10% of Shanta on the cheap.

R&M were reducing and FIL exited. AMG reduced too so not sure who the buyer can be.

The size of it means there should be a TR1 (a few of them) for sure.

Booboo,

It's not just Odey to worry about. Prior to Odey news, FIL, AMG and R&M were reducing or exiting Shanta. I think most started selling down after the news of Luke's departure and then Eric's departure.

Basically, when both captain and co captain jump ship, investors become a bit twitchy. I'm interested in Shanta but can't invest until I know what the new management teams plans are and how they propose to fund it.

I liked Eric/Lukes 'safe' pair of hands although as you know I exited pretty fast when they both sold a wedge prior to giving the market the bad news on NLGM. That was a bit poor by them and trust factor dropped a bucket load. They would have known NLGM was struggling well before they SOLD shares. Tut tut. Let's hope new management can come in and build back some trust or get some deals done with partners. M&A still possible here especially if Odey is on the way out. I think he may have been 'one' of the reasons for keeping the chinese at bay???

Still buying on the bonds. Now over 75. Last time they tipped 75 was Sept 10th 2022.

Equity price sept 10th 2022 (broadly aligned with bonds then) was........ 125p!!!

Someone call the market police and report a 50p gap offence!!!

****goestheeasal, markets haven't been great recently and majority of us investment banks have been trying to call down equities (after they sold out in oct 22 thru to jan 22) for a while now in the hope they can rebuild into equities when the fed starts turning the stimulus back on lol!

we saw netflix soar on covid stay at home scenarios and we now see tech stocks booming again on ai. it seems the market is more interested in the here and now gone in a flash (well... more like 6months to 2 years span) than any of the older commod growth stories like... discovery billion barrels of oil... raise debt... fund it to production... then plug and abandon when runs dry. that's about 5 to 10 years on most wells these days. same to be said of gold mines. take years to discover and prove up, years to build and then by time debt paid down it's time to explore again. there just isn't any excitement around discoveries anymore unless it's a real minnow 1p levels and billion shares in issue small cap. personally i'm astounded at the markets inability to recognise and price accordingly the impending copper shortage. copper is trading at levels seen some years ago... not at levels you would expect based on global electrification!!

two stocks i like at present are solg and pfc. solg has tier1 copper / gold mine and is seeking to flog it to the chinese so go the rumours. pfc being service based has been hit by older contract tie ins that have proved loss making do to inflation quadrupling. if chinese and us plan to spend their way out of post rate rise period with infrastructure projects, then pfc should do very well. recent $13bln eu tennet deal is a nice starter.

so i have solg for copper/m&a exposure in mining sector and pfc for a play on inflation dropping and boost in infrastructure spend with switch to renewables / putin alternatives etc.

i think shanta offers some nice opportunities in the future but need to see how new management stack up post eric departing and how they plan to fund west kenya expansion going forwards. new bod's might be gun ho or they might be the 'partner' up types. will wait and see.

atb

Yes very true, in most cases the mm's will pre-arrange or agree a price level whereby two large buyers/sellers transact. Often they drop the price to that level quite swiftly and then start printing the block deals after hours. Having Odey has main shareholder is a shame for Shanta as liquidity issues across other funds may cause a liquidity issue especially if/when Odey have to start handing cash back to the prime brokers.

That all said, there have been II sellers on Shanta over the last month or so which could just be seasonal rotations but with Eric moving on etc I think the whole scenario has got some larger investors worried about the future cash flows.

Morningstar data see here https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/shg/ownership

shows FIL and AMG both selling large stakes

I think the upcoming period of Eric's departure and the transition with new management will take sometime to bed down. Eric and Luke were very tight with spend and I think some II's felt comfortable with them as they were ex bankers. Going to be interesting to see the new management style and how they fund operations whether aggressive through fast moving JV's capital injections on WK or slow and easy like Eric's past methods of deploying just enough of profits into growing business while doing moderate Divi's. For me, as a past shareholder (no longer a shareholder but interested to re-enter when time is right) a lot depends on the New Luika Gold Mine extensions. That asset looks like it is on a natural decline and the AISC's tend to rise when fighting to sustain ageing mines. Singida much needed but I think Shanta will be back below 100koz producer next year due to NLGM issues. West Kenya looks great but think they would be better seeking a partner on that one and getting it moving faster. If you look at HUM as an example, they've piled on debt to get Kouroussa online and the market still rates them sub £100m market cap regardless of rising production.

The issue these days is that markets are short sighted and the Gold miners cycle is a repetitive one... load up debt... develop mine.... production commences.... debt paid down....then positives cash flows commence but are ploughed back into mine to sustain production... AISC's rise and the catch 22 continues. Management get nice salaries... shareholders get minor divi and share prices go now where fast. And that's with POG near $2000oz! What on earth would be going on with POG at $1350oz or sub $1000 like before covid??

So imho... there's more to Shanta decline than just Odey woes. Other II's have been exiting. Eric is exiting. It will take time to bed down imho.

ATB to all invested.

If china hit the 'stimulus' button, we could see US follow short after as the race to drive growth goes global. Ultimately, you can choke the free flowing money as much as you like with higher rates but not at the expense of growth. Eventually you have to start cutting or more likely in Fed reserve case, they'll make money available for the prime brokers JPM/GS et al and hope it filters back to the little guy. Trouble is... it does but by the time it arrives with the little guy, just about every city suit has had their cut.

Chinese stimulus rumours in market could see next bull run for commods and service companies like PFC. There are so many infrastructure projects that were parked due to covid that have yet to be rebooted.

It's all looking good for PFC now.

On side note, I wonder if Apollo are buying up wedges of the PFC bonds?? Nice way to profit and reduce the equity price component based on their net gains across the two. If Bonds were at par level then wouldn't be tradable. But the near 25% discount must have some hedge funds thinking it's an easy hedge??

Redknight1,

I thought you sold about 1m shares in the 16's. How can you be 'well happy' with the rise to 19p? Plenty did the same as you and they are 'well' erm... well.... absent is the best word I can find.

I should add, let's not forget that BHP may well have desires on Alpala and cannot be dismissed. Maxit will know that any plan or offer deal that they put forward will either see BHP counter offer or take back seat and await other offers from players like Anglo or Rio if these firms are indeed intent on bolstering their Ecuador presence.

The starter gun is fired once Maxit reveal the tabled offer or deal. Then all interested parties (in the shadows) can come out and counter offer. So the first Maxit deal tabled doesn't have to be that great. In fact, my guess is that it will be Luke warm and in the 30's or early 40's. With subsequent bids potentially taking it into the high 50's and 60's if the bidders are really keen.

Maxit just need to get a deal tabled. It should rock and roll thereafter.

Just keep it simple and focus on the guys that have taken over SOLG.

Maxit, Irwin et al have no interest in adding value to the share price which lines the pockets of traders or flaky pi's. The only interest they have is their own interests. And when you effectively own 30%+ of the company (CGP guys/Maxit/Irwin etc etc) you have on way to sell that amount into the market without a corporate event. For instance, when the sp was 40p last year, Maxit couldn't sell into that. There simply wasn't the demand for 400m shares in a block sale. Add to this there is some doubt over what Newmont will do with their 300m shares gained from Newcrest. Will they flog them to BHP (if interested) or will they retain them? The investment / trading world is a very different one to pi's if you are a very large holder. Boosting the sp does the big holders no real favours. Creating a monetisation event which sees assets sold or the entire business is the only way for Maxit et al to exit and capitalise. They don't want to have their money in SOLG for any longer than necessary and certainly won't be tucking it away into a 25 year mine plan lol! These guys want OUT. End of.

I have two concerns as a pi with Maxit involved. First is the CGP shares circa 100m. What's to stop Maxit issuing those shares to their buddies (tut tut) at 17p or lower (heaven forbid) just a month or so ahead of a known bid outcome? Yes it is insider trading but there are rules that can be skirted. My point is, Maxit can make a 34p offer worth while to the likes of themselves and other insiders if they gain 100m stock at 17p. I guess I'm saying... insiders have 100m shares to line their pockets with when they are confident an offer is being tabled. That incentivises them to keep share price low until all are ready.

Second concern is that Maxit et all orchestrate a JV deal which sees SOLG partnered with someone like Mitsui or Chinese and JV partner commits to capital injections in exchange for ENSA interest but also we see Maxit exit stage left selling their 300m shares+ for 30p or something like that. In other words... the CGP boys still get their exit event but rest of shareholders do not, although I think the sp would be around 30p then anyway so open to trading pi's etc.

All in all, the insiders have the upper hand and we know they like lining their pockets. So that's my 2 concerns where maxis et al are concerned. There is absolutely no way on this planet that they are going to dilute themselves any further. Not going to happen. That goes against their complete end game. There will not be any equity issues unless part of an exploration company spin out etc. That's plausible as would fund it and lets face it market doesn't care a jot about exploration right now.

Do I trust Maxit et al? No! Absolutely not. Do I think they are aligned to shareholders interests... YES but they also have 100m shares (CGP) to help them with any low balls...mmm! Remember, Maxit took a wedge at 16.5p in last

Bonds over 74 now and almost 81 on the ask.

Serious interest shown of late and not unexpected at they are paying 9.75%. I think when US rates hit the pause and start to fall end of this year (my guess) you'll see the mother of all storms working in favour of PFC as bon rate becomes more attractive and inflation drops combined with business booming / new contract wins.

Surprised the equity price is not back to 84p levels last seen on the $13bln JV contract deal RNS.

Markets are slow and a bit inefficient right now especially during summer season. Over 100p in Q3... that's my guess.

Sharketmare

I guess my first thought... is... when will Sharketmare buy back into SOLG after exiting some weeks ago?

Good to see you still showing interest though think you need to be invested to use the word 'we'.

Better than expected suggesting that inflation might be heading the way the FED wants at the speed they want too.

As I've been saying for yonks now, PFC is a great stock to hold if you think inflation will drop in coming months.

SP reacting well to better CPI number. If that trait continues (as think it will) then PFC should be 100p+ if or when US CPI drops below 3% again. And that's without any block buster contract win news. Add the latter and we could be back to 120's before year end.

June 23rd is PFC AGM. Im hoping the new management team are bullish going boards now they have kitchen sinked 'the past'.

All we need to break 100p+ levels is a nice large ADNOC stocking deal heralding PFC's return to business after the SFO exile period.

It's been a while now... over a year since PFC were acknowledged as 'free' to bid on ADNOC tenders. More enough time for those sheikh's to load up on PFC shares first lol!