RE: Steady as she goes23 Jun 2023 14:20
I think a logical guess on the recent Ecuador (historic first ever) chinese FTA would say that deal was closed earlier than many expected. It was cited for latter half of 2023 but seemed to gather pace as Lasso / political pressure increased. So fair to assume that Chinese may well prefer to get something signed or pre-agreed prior to Lasso's departure.
As proven by the recent 20% increase Chinese stake in SOLG, they know value and they know the long game. It suits them. They don't have shareholders to please or lap up to like Newmont, Barrick, BHP et al. They are already embedded into many financial commitments with Ecuador so much so that Biden and his US buddies are clearly rattled by Chinese influence across South Americas.
So two ways of looking at at... 1. as sharketmare says... nothing going to happen until end of the year.... or 2. interested parties see a window and that potentially closes come early Q4. So now through to early October is possible for a first move.
Chinese know that BHP might be ready to counter any offer so perhaps they are trying to find a way that prevents that or gives them a decent return should they fail. Buying up SOLG equity (like recently) certainly covers both basis as if BHP counter with 60p+ price, then the Chinese will be making 3 fold on their 6%+ acquired stake.
Looking at II holdings, most of the Blackrock/FIL selling has been done so that doesn't leave much stock left to buy apart from bored flaky pi's exiting of course. Hard to see the chinese move trough 7% level without some II's providing stock. Global X have around 42m but have been stake building rather than exiting. Fidelity appear to have about 16m left so chance they could snaffle those if they haven't already. Morningstar data should be out next week so guess we'll find next week. Apart from those players, I can't see any other flaky II's selling or gifting Chinese some SOLG stock. Also, we don't appear to have had much selling from past CGP holders (smaller ones). I think someone posted a while ago that they thought that might see some sellers. Most seem like they are holding tight like most SOLG holders.
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