Member Info for Fortissimo

Still near 20m shares to close out on notifiable short Levels. Not easy to do on a stock that usually does 1m to 2m volume per day.

Just need to get through 84p and think some will forced to close pushing sp to 90's.

Irwin's not the oracle but when it comes to listening to him or Bozi... I know who carries the most weight lol!

He clearly has connections with Bob/Maxit and the old CGP guys. I'm sure he could say more... but that might cross insider rules etc.

I think some on here forget just how remarkable Alpala is. The metal mix is a smelters dream. Franco and others are all over it chucking 100's of millions. Some of you can play it down if you like... but it's one of the best Tier 1 discoveries ever made in the last 10 to 15 years globally! Where's all the new much needed copper supplies going to come from for the new electrified world then??

It's not going for anything under 50p - some of you need to understand the way markets work. The sp (today) is not an indicator of the final takeout price. Wood Group was 100p months ago and then had offer at 240p. We all know about Noront 21 cents to 110 cents. The list goes on. SOLG has 100% stake in a monster size Tier 1 asset. It's almost unheard of. Most minnows end up with 10% stake or less or through poor deals like GGP example whereby likes of Newcrest virtually get it all for peanuts.

SOLG management have done a brilliant job navigating the ruthless world of mining where the big boys push the little boys into submission. It's a cruel game. But SOLG have come through that and 100% stake is astonishing at this juncture. Mather et al have done well and the royalty deals tell you just how likely it is that Alpala will be developed. Just as Franco!

Yes good find Pad. I think the Ecuador gov keen to help where they can if it means multi-billion dollar mines get built.

Key words..."As an incentive...."

Mmm. I can think of some nice tax incentives also which would help get things moving faster too! Gov certainly making the right noises... now just sign a nice amended 'helpful' exploitation licence with SOLG and we can get this into development ... well not us... but someone else with deep pockets.

Well it's a good job with got Maxit and Citi looking at it rather than you then Bozi! Best leave it to the experts.

Interesting to note the reference to 'pipeline' as that's been mentioned before and clearly is the agreed route for export. And we all know who builds pipelines in Ecuador or elsewhere in South America for that matter... the Chinese. No wonder they are interested. They can build that pipeline cheaper than anyone else. I'm sure of that.

Bozi,

Will it be acceptable to BHP? Do you think they will just rollover to the chinese for 35p? Don't be daft... they'll never let a tier 1 opportunity like this go when they are already in the driving seat with 10% stake.

45p might fly but still can't see BHP rolling over for that after being invested in SOLG for last 5 years or so.

I think the way to get Mather on board with a 45p or 50p ish offer is to pitch it as ENSA only and then allow Mather to head up the exploration spin out company with Porvenir and other high targets include. I get the idea that all Mather wants the opportunity to prove there's another Alpala out there within the SOLG folio. That's what floats his boat. Put him as CEO of the new exploration business... Exit Scott... Maxit et al along with ENSA sale etc and off we go again. Of course Maxit / Bob and co will retain their typical 20% interest in the exploration NewCo and wouldn't run out a placing with Chinese for 20% to fund $30m 2 year exploration plan.

Plenty of ops to sweeten the pie for all involved but if you want Mather to accept sub 60p for ENSA... then you gotta give him the opportunity to find another. Simple as that. IMHO of course.

35p certainly won't cut it with likes of Newmont and BHP nor Tenstar or Mather. No way they'll let Chinese have it for 35p. I think 50p is the lowest offer price that would likely be given serious consideration. One way to sweeten a 50p offer price (as opposed to something like 60p) would be to agree 50p for ENSA and then give Shareholders full exposure to exploration vehicle / spin out folio which has Porvenir, Bramados and few other blocks thrown in with likely market cap value of around £100m or so giving Shareholders another 3 to 4p if they want to exit or opportunity to roll the dice on exploration again and possible to see that 3 or 4p level turn into 8p or 12p (£200m or £300m market cap) upon some discoveries, thus returning a further 12p+. Of course could be much higher if you see holes like that seen on Alpala.

Yes discussions will be ongoing with mining ministry and lasso etc but I think it's important to remember that Maxit are fully incentivised (with their large holding) to get a monetisation event under way. As Irwin has hinted before... the market is down at the moment and there are loads of cheap opportunities elsewhere. Some of these are beaten down to price levels that look very attractive. Hence the thinking for Irwin and Maxit et al is different to pi's. They will happily take 40p+ if ti means this happens soon and they can then deploy that cash into cheap stocks that potentially turn that 40p into 80p with short period of time. There comes a time or a pivot point whereby it's pointless wishing for 60p or 70p on SOLG when other target investment stocks are recovering 30% to 50% from lows. Eg... miss that recovery phase and you've missed the op to capitalise on being cash rich (post SOLG sale). So tricky one for the big boys and that's why 40's might be a goer for some.

I genuinely think that any low ball offered in the 30's will see counter offers. So certainly possible that the first offer is mid 30's. But that won't succeed imho.

Largest volume in quite sometime on Friday so shows conviction in the buying which bulk took place at around 78p levels. Buyers on larger volumes don't tend to invest at 78p to be exiting at 85p or 90p for that matter. Some shorter traders will trade it in and out for a penny here and there. But big volume players play longer game and will be seeking 120's or 160's which might come this year but looks a certainty in 2024 with full recovery.

Seeing large buying demand at 78p should underpin price level and provides a great platform for a launch back into the 90's short term. And all this in a dull summer off season. Just imagine how PFC will be doing come end of September when markets return to proper trading.

Very bright future here and anything sub 100p looks bargain basement based on the PFC order book.

Enjoy your weekends

Sharketmare, I know you are out of SOLG at the moment and that often affects outlook but seriously... do you really think Newmont are any different to BHP? BHP are much much bigger and yet they seem very interested in SOLG so much so they were trying to do underhand things with our BoD's to aid them in their quest to gain a Tier 1 asset on the cheap.

You are suggesting that Newmont don't care at all because they are $30bln + market cap yet BHP who are 150bln market cap clearly do care.

mmm. I think you've been smoking those "I'm out of SOLG and on the sidelines cigarettes"!

ADNOC has always been PFC's feather in the cap as Asfari clearly got ties there. But outside of that, MENA region contract wins have been limited of late with Algerian win being the last of note ($1.5bln I think). The point is, if ADNOC have commenced work again with PFC then I think Egypt, Algeria and other MENA region players will follow fast.

I also think new management have kitchen sinked the bad news in H1 and as such will have some wriggle room for upside in H2. They want nice momentum story heading into 2024 which by then I believe PFC will be back into the £1's and out of the pennies. And with that.... make a note of this... PFC will be looking at FTSE250 listing again. And that brings loads of fund managers into the stock again via trackers and other instruments.

Strap yourselves in for more contract news as there's around $14bln left in 2023 up for grabs.

It's been a long cold 2 years of zero from Adnoc and PFC survived that (just about). ADNOC really is the PFC's strength as relationships strong. SFO all history now and going forwards I expect ADNOC and Asfari to see PFC back to glory days.

The chinese and US are going big on infrastructure spend and they try and bolster economy. EU desperate to move away from Putin and Russian energy. It's all win win win for the service companies like PFC. If Glencore can rise from ashes (90p days) to test 600p recently... then PFC can certainly get back to 300p+. Amazing investment opportunity here right now. Matters very little whether investors pile in at 70p levels or 80p or 90p if target or end game is 300p+ or 400p+. Folk will look back and think why didn't I fill my boots in the 70's! Still risk involved so always do your research and don't listen to rampers or derampers. Listen to your own voice.

Most new contracts have phased payment stages and PFC have been doing this for years. So working capital not a problem at all. It's only legacy contracts that caused the issue on profit margins. PFC and other service companies like Wood Group are very experienced at building large projects and ensuring they are paid as they go through milestones.

I think the important thing to remember about this ADNOC deal is that it is clearly the first of many. Even PFC highlighted sometime ago that there were 5 to 7 ADNOC contracts which were up for award in 2023.

Personally, I can't believe that ADNOC would just award PFC one contract in 2023. I think there's more to come and they could get 3 or 4 of those 7 contracts mentioned.

There comes a time when the market has to be forced into pricing the forward story for PFC and not the here and now. On a forward basis, PFC's order book is looking like the old days when the sp was 300p or 400p+. Granted the market is bearish right now but remember PFC is likely to breakeven this year and that's after they've taken $100m to $150m+ hit on old legacy contracts. In 2024, they could be doing $300m+ profits. On modest p/e of 5, that's $1.5bln market cap or 300p+ a share. Order book has to show continual build, but at moment PFC share price is ridiculously undervalued. Inflation will come down and PFC's new contracts likely to have some higher inflation numbers baked in hence they could do very well as prices fall in 2024.

Not sure where the shorters can go now as more contract wins look inevitable. Where's the bad news going to come from? It's already out there and H2 looks fabulous for PFC.

Wow wow wow! Boom boom boom!

$700m is decent size but it's the fact that it's first ADNOC contract awarded since the SFO days. This is a massive bit of news and tells the market that ADNIC and PFC are back in business.

This is brilliant news. I have no doubts more contracts from ADNOC will follow but a modest start of $700m to be expected.

Now let's see the shorters squirm.

Personally I'm expecting Bob/Maxit et all to line their pockets with a. cheap placing a month or so before any agreed takeover or asset sale. Why?? Because for some reason I get the feeling that 'they' the old CGP bunch think those shares are 'their own' and as such they fully intend to place them to their benefit. lets face it... if the takeover is coming and they know it.... do you really think these guys are the types to pass up on issuing themselves 100m shares at 17p just before they accept an offer 50p??

I know it's out of order etc but what would you do if you were them and SOLG's cash balance was running low... which it will be come Dec. Auditors will want at least 6 months working capital before signing off accounts in Dec. Scott says that SOLG have 12months finance in place but the caveat on that is it includes the issue of 100m shares or $25m raise.

I think these guys are well and truly out for themselves and if pi's tag along... then all should do very well. But some (like Scott) are already doing way way better than they were when at CGP... they are significantly richer. Now they just have to enact the monetisation event. But may as well profit from the 100m CGP shares along the way eh?? Cynical I know.... but money is a filthy and greedy business.

Worth noting the decline in mining sector overall with likes of Anglo American down near 2000 levels when they were testing 3700 in Jan this year. So in 6 months they are down nearly 35%. Glencore down heavily too. Both FTSE based. Elsewhere likes of BHP and Rio Tinto seem to be doing better - down just 20%.

If you took SOLG average share price levels of around 24p/25p (over last 2 years) and sliced it 35% inline with Anglo (mining bellwether) then that gets you to around 15.5p/16p levels.

Of course, a growth stock like SOLG should not track a mega corp like Anglo American but considering the latter is on FTSE100, it's still a good indicator of current market sentiment and liquidity albeit in typical subdued summer period.

BHP clearly enjoying the benefits of their decision to delist from FTSE100 last year.

All in all... SOLG share price performance inline with all the usual market participants.

It tends to bounce when the likes of the chinese want a few million.... just like the last move from 15.5p to 19.5p. Like I said a while ago, there's a clear trend of 'drifting' lower on low volume and moving higher on high volume.

The curious thing is... if you were Chinese entity and knew you were going into a JV deal on ENSA, would you buy SOLG Equity?? My guess is NO. Unless of course you were covering your basis against a potential counter offer from someone like BHP? Or... the other scenario... you don't intend to get involved in JV's and instead intend to buy the entire business. Then I guess buying the equity makes sense. Personally I think the Chinese equity position allows them to 'win' even if they fail on a takeover as they'll profit nicely on that 6%+ holding.

Going to be interesting to see what Newmont's plans are for SOLG's 10% stake. If they don't like BHP... maybe they will sell it to the chinese? Or just hang onto it and await the sale process?

I think many of the shorting players were hoping for some bad news on the TU yesterday. Hence the fake or manufactured move down to 67p I have no doubts that it would have seen quite a few exit or panic. But the news wasn't bad and the TU reflected exactly what the company had guided some 2 months earlier. No nasty surprises. So with that, where are the news events that directly affect PFC going forwards?? Well... there's contract wins.. and there's inflation pressures dropping or rising. If it's the former (which most assume to be the case) then it's good news for PFC in H2. Contact wins at 100% bid success would be around $14bln. They won't win them all but if they bag another couple of contract wins like the Algerian deal of circa $1.5bln, then that's major news indeed.

So in summary... there's really not much to look forward to if you are a shorter. And if you are a bull... you have a beaten up stock primed for a recovery based on improving outlook and global pressures easy across the board etc.

Right now, it's just sandwiched in the 70's but once through 78p levels, I think it's fast to test 85p from there. Famous last words, but the dip below 70p might be the last time you ever see that op and I think quite. a few shorters knew that hence the immediate bounce that followed.

I think it's US$ 73bln and not £ sterling. But it's still a large wedge of tendering opportunities over next 18 months. As per quote below, they're around $14bln scheduled for 2023. Ironically, it just goes to show how enormous that Tennet deal was at $13bln! I would expect them to secure at least 20% of that $14bln before year end. That would move forward order book to nearer $8bln which is back to levels whereby market valued PFC at 360p+

From TU...

"Bidding activity remains high with a total pipeline scheduled for award by December 2024 of approximately US$57 billion, of which US$14 billion is scheduled for award in 2023.