Member Info for Fortissimo

Great news indeed and like I said all parties seem in a bit of a rush to get this sorted before Lasso departs. I wonder whether the chinese will now make a move before elections and get a deal signed???

No coincidence that this has been fast tracked when it was due or expected for end of the year.

Terms look great and have in no doubt (in my mind) been requested or negotiated with SOLG on behalf of a future partner or owner.

To this that said nothing would happen here until later in the year. You were wrong.

It's now very much game on and starter gun officially fired.

Great to have this tied up pre elections.

Well done Scott, Mather and team.

They bought back 0.12% and moved down to 0.85%.

They were at 1% not long ago so looks like another poor bet by them but then we don't know their long position if any.

Shorts based on 0.5% notifiable now at lowest point for months.

What Doom and Gloom? There isn't any doom and gloom with SOLG. You might get a handful of inconsequential pi's muttering away but it's like having 10 folk shouting away in a 100k seated stadium with the rest chanting something completely different.

Put this way, if the doom mongers were in the away end and the SOLG bulls in the home end. Then you'd be looking at nothing but loads and loads of empty seats in the away end. Home end would be bouncing.

That's the reality. All looking very good with SOLG. Fully funded... Chinese buying in open market... Ecuador Gov leaning over backwards for them. Copper shortage looming. Licences hard to get in South America never mind Ecuador. Super majors running out of acquisition targets and need Tier1 assets... list goes on. What's not to like? The share price? That's fair but it can be 16p one week and 42p the next based on previous SOLG share price moves.

As the inflation story improves across the globe and in UK (latter going to take longer due to Brexit) PFC should strengthen with it. That's why PFC is such a great play for the 'recovery' when rates begin to turn, likely in 2024. Seriously... with PFC's orderbook level of $7bln+ going into 2024 with inflation dropping and rate cuts in H2 is my guess... might be sooner... PFC SP will be on steroids.

It might be frustrating seeing the sp bobble around in the 70's but eventually the breakout into thin air (TA wise) begins after 86p levels and then it's off to 100p+ pretty quickly. To newbies like myself... that's great. For longer term holders, their view will be different. A return to 100p+ is just the beginning for them. Welcome yes, but it's the 150p to 180p+ levels which most see as fair value for now based on levels achieved in covid woes. We have suffered with legacy issues post covid through inflation etc so some lag factor there but when the fog clears (and it is now) PFC should be flying again.

I genuinely believe this is 2 to 4 bagger stock within a relatively small period of 12 to 24 months.

They look like they are going into that phase that all miners hit whereby growth lags, debt rises, dividends reduce and market cap dwindles. Then... after a few years of growth & infrastructure spend, production rises, cash increases and then shareholders get a minor amount while debt holders get lion share of repayments. And that's how it works. It's a simple process of the people behind the funding gaining nice profits while shareholders front the stress end of the business.

There's a golden period for these type of miners whereby they hit that nice crescendo of lower debt and nice cash flows before the entire cycle of growth funding goes around again.

For AAZ, that cycle is about 2 to 3 years away by looks of things. This year as well as next look the low points. Buy in 12 to 18months time is my view once they've delivered and debt pile known.

Addicknt, very significant and more so due to the ticking time clock which ironically exists for SOLG and Lasso.

If you were a chinese buyer or future partner etc, you really would like to get this wrapped up with the man that you struck your historic FTA deal with. Presentation this Thursday will surely deliver some more meat on the bone using the 25 year licence period.

Chinese know that a change of political control can be managed but it also often means it takes longer as new boys get feet under desk etc. So if you want to get things sorted and avoid some potential 'lefty' stuff on the elections, then you'd want to get as much paper work sorted as you can.

Today's news suggests that all involved want this wrapped imho. That bodes well.

It's summer months and notorious slow but don't think China weak growth is likely to bother the market for very long as the obvious answer for China is to go on a stimulus run which historically is very very good for commods and markets in general.

So ironically, weak China growth only serves to support the bullish scenario of China having to kick off some serious Stimulus.

Question now is... will those involved get a mad dash on to get something else pen'd on ENSA ( a sale) before Lasso departs?? Elections looming and looks like red tape getting sorted.

Bodes well!

I have a feeling you'll be 'all in' on Monday lol!

Strap yourselves in... I get the distinct idea that after almost zero news over an entire 12 month period... the news machine is about to kick in. And why not? Scott's got his 17p options. The chinese have mopped up some loose stock too. All are nicely positioned and have been for a couple of months now. Always better to wait a while after issuing options before releasing any big news. Looks less dodgy lol!

For those that are sidelined, ... it's a non event... stay sidelined ... you'll be ok. You won't miss any boats here or the big one... or... maybe you will. That's SOLG for you. FOMO has and will always rule the roost here.

There's always another bus as they say... so don't stress. Loads of stocks out there that can do 3 or 4 baggers... you just got to find them.

Could be 120p next week in this market

One rumour of a bid by Apollo and it's 160p+

It's only £450m added to the market cap which in this market is peanuts these days.

Wood group was valued at around £900m before Apollo made £2bln bid. Market is hopeless at valuations these days.

$24bln per quarter so $100bln per year.

Yes big bucks... but 3 trillion market cap?? Come on!!!??

Petrofac is ten times the company that Hunting (HTG) are in my opinion. Order book is ten times Huntings. In 2024 PFC likely to be doing 3 or 4 times the forecasted HTG profits. The list goes on. Yet HTG are valued at £430m today... more than PFC. The markets are bonkers these days. It's bazball time again as stocks like Glencore and Anglo that got beaten up last week now bounce back. What was the point of beating them last week? Rising dollar? Surely the market can't be that dynamic whereby it's creating 5% to 10% daily or weekly swings on stocks that are valued around £50bln! How can you swing around £5bln market cap worth based on minor volumes. The markets are broken and buyers/sellers no longer represent true value or demand. It's been a casino for years now but lately it's become laughable.

Apple valued at 3 trillion dollars?? They made $24bln in NET income. How do you get to 3 trillion market cap from that then??

Bonkers stuff.

Nice finish at day's high

Bond trading up and while the wider market plays bazball with the major indices, it's worth remembering that PFC are back to order book levels of $6bln to 7bln range and more contract awards expected in H2. Last time order book was this robust, PFC were in the 140's. Last time bonds were above $74, PFC were around 120's. So pretty obvious to most savvy investors that the equity at 76p today is heavily discounted and there's no reason why it should be any more.

Why would that hurt the sp? There's no way Newmont are going to sell an important 10% stake in SOLG for less than the current sp. More likely they agree a price to Chinese or BHP (I doubt the latter as don't think NM like them very much... mind you who does in the mining industry!).

Any sale by Newmont is likely to add value to the sp especially if the chinese buy it.

You think an RNS that drops in saying chinese have bought an extra 10% will hurt the sp? Zoros true to form... negativity at every juncture.

Addicknt, I'm not saying they won't present a JV (even though that's not what they want etc)... I think that might end up being what is tabled... but my point is... I'm pretty sure Maxit knows that any JV proposal will likely see BHP or Barrick or Rio Or any of the super majors come out with a counter offer that is not a JV.

At the end of the day... all Maxit have to do is get something tabled that seriously ruffles the feathers of BHP or attracts counter offers. That's it... simple as that. So of course the SR will be looking at multiple options going forwards. Why wouldn't you. You're not going to back yourself into a corner and reduce your negotiating power.

I repeat... Alpala is the only Tier 1 copper gold asset out there right now that the majors can buy which has 100% ownership. There are no others. There are M&A ops that can bring in copper (like Newmonts deal on NCM etc). But that's becoming harder to achieve now as a few deals done this year not leaving much left.

Addicknt,

any event that allows Maxit, bob et al to sell out will be the preferred course. Any events that spike the SP are pointless to them as impossible to sell out their 700m+ shares. If a JV resulted in delivering a divi of some sort then might be viable but any JV would either require SOLG to be cashed up enough to finance their share or a deal done to deliver a free carry of some sort. Both limit the payback or opportunity to sell out in full.

The CGP boys want a pay day. I genuinely believe they'd take a $2bln pay day vs a $3bln valued JV event as latter would only deliver about $1bln to market cap with 2/3rds being added in or used to fund through share of development.

One possibility for Maxit and Irwin (but only to a select few) would be to float ENSA on Canadian market as NEWCO. In process of listing Maxit and Irwin and others sell out their 20%+ stakes to Chinese. Rest of us wee shareholders then left with a stake in Canadian listed entity which likely then gets diluted to oblivion over the development years.

There's only way way Bob and Maxit get their full pay day and that's through an ENSA sale. On the upside, the chances of a low ball deal with Chinese likely to see someone like Fortesque, or Rio, Barrick, BHP etc counter offer and that's where it gets interesting for all involved.

As I said over the weekend... find me another Tier1 100% owned copper/gold mine that is effectively up for sale at a time when all the super majors will or are gagging for the metals now and in the years to come.

Tier1 mines are rare animals. Yes they cost big bucks but they are country and company makers and last 40 to 50 years+.

Russian and other related mines (Ukraine/Belarus etc etc) are not going to be options for the big boys going forwards. So they are being pushed to South Americas which is why the Chinese have been active there for years now.

The opportunities to grab an asset like Alpala are non existent.

SOLG will be sold. I have no doubts about that. But there's a time and a place and sometimes it benefits those selling the company to issue cheap shares to themselves like Scott and co and then drag it all out so shareholders end up content to take 50p as opposed to 75p or 100p etc.

When an offer arrives, Maxit et al will want shareholders in the mood to sell rather than wait it out and play hardball. Certainly working as fatigue sets in with some of the pi base.

Unfortunately bubble, you live in dreamland there. ATB with AYM but think you'll be suffering on that one.

Still no takers then?? Surely one of the dreamers can find another Tier 1 mine out there that is 100% owned and NOT in a super majors or government JV'd hands??

Come one.... some one out there??

Or are we to assume SOLG is the only route to a Tier 1 100% owned copper/gold mine in the world?

Can anyone (please step forward trolls and wannabe trolls) and provide a link to another Tier 1 mine opportunity out there in the world which has copper/gold resources (Tier1 levels) and is 100% owned and not in a super majors or state owned hands.

Considering there is a massive copper shortage... there must be loads of these mines surely??

Be interested to hear examples.

Bozi, royalty deals are very much alive and kicking and way way better than the dilution that the big boys like BHP and NCM thrive on and try and push onto the minnows. The two royalties made by SOLG were masterstrokes and have kept BHP in their box and rather embarrassingly saw them chuck their toys out of the pram... quite odd considering the size of BHP and how little they apparently care about SOLG lol!

The royalties do come with buy out clauses which allow a future partner or super major to reduce the ongoing expense. So they are in some cases reversible to some extent.

If SOLG needed to (in the future) to do a royalty deal and that was better than dilution, then they would do it. I remember a similar conversation some moons ago whereby certain posters said a royalty deal was not going to happen again after the Franco deal. And what happened?... mmm.

At end of the day... I think SOLG will be sold before the next royalty deal is done so not really an issue. But don't right one off as I can assure you... the CGP boys have no intention of massively diluting their equity holdings. That's the absolute opposite of their game plan.

It's actually good news as shows Barclays are clearly sliding the rule over PFC again after ignoring the stock for may moons. The 200p target was irrelevant and out of date. By reducing the target to 90p, Barclays have now created a nice floor from which.... yes you guessed it... they can UPGRADE and upgrade a few times.

So do not be surprised when the next contract arrives or later in the year when TU lands and H2 is looking nice and strong as guided... you get a nice Barclays UPGRADE note to 120p. I reckon they'll issue a few of those as they work their way back up to 200p.

And hey presto... you have positive momentum rather than a stagnant 200p target which quite frankly wouldn't be hit until probably around Mid 2024 or of course... on an Apollo approach.

Broker notes tend to get ignored these days but far better to have future upgrade notes rather than not much at all.

US markets on Hols so market trading sideways today. Should see some decent volume action return tomorrow.