Member Info for Fortissimo

I guess much depends on what is left in terms of 'red tape' before development can commence? The likelihood is that the exploitation agreement and the 25 year mine licence are worthless without the environmental permits/permission to develop. It's hard to award the environmental permits if the development plan and affected areas are not known etc etc. We've heard rumours of pipelines being planned and built to export from Alpala. I'm sure Chinese will or are behind any planned infrastructure spend like roads, pipelines, bridges, water works, disposal plans etc etc. Shed loads required in planning a Tier 1 mine.

But the mine life and exploitation agreements absolutely paramount and key to getting this sold.

Now down to 0.73% buying back another 0.12% at a loss by looks of things. They've made a right fudge out of shorting PFC. Looks like tail between legs they are exiting now.

Wise to take their medicine, as it looks destined to be back over 100p levels now we are into the stronger H2 period and left the weaker H1 period behind.

It does surprise me why the Japanese or even likes of Elon Musk and co don't take significant investment stakes in Copper / PM mines as supports their business and secures the streams they need when rest of competition could be struggling for supply. We've seen major issues post covid with car firms suffering due to chip supplies. Same thing is looming for car firms in 2027/2028 when copper likely twice todays price levels.

Surely Maxit et al need to issue themselves the 100m CGP shares at 16p first before revealing the mind plan and chinese (or another) bid or funding deal lol!

Now what could give them the basis or premise to issue 100m shares to their buddies on the cheap??? Oh ... hang on a moment... didn't Ecuador gov say they wanted $25m on commencement of construction???

The opportunities for all 'in the know' to make a bucket load out of this (and helps accept a lower offer) is obvious to all. Scott and co have already bagged a ridiculous amount at 17p.

Can't wait to see this unfold as there is no doubt about it in mind ... Alpala is changing hands soon and that would be the only reason the Ecuador gov would be signing off the red tape IMHO!

Scott will update the market on his mine plan soon enough but lets face it... it's a pointless update unless it's supported with sale process/SR outcome or both etc.

I don't think the Ecuador Gov would do the following:

1. Agree 25 year mine licence

2. Agree to exploitation agreement with fine tuned T&C's

WITHOUT..... knowing the mine plan and projected revenue streams along with predicted start and end date of development and first exports.

I think Scott's already presented the new mine plan and would have had to present the finance plan too.

Ecuador gov want it moving pronto and would not be gamed by SOLG. Both parties would have to commit and show their hands.

Tuesday 8 August - 4.20

https://www.diggersndealers.com.au

I think they just want to go to the shops without being murdered! Sounds horrific and Ecuador seriously in need of getting a grip on criminals / gangs etc. There was an article many moons ago that highlighted the alternative view on why many were supporting the anti mining / eco warriors in last elections. Basically it highlighted that artisans or illegal mining was rife in and around known resource discoveries. No wonder they don't global mining... they are happy chipping away a few carats for themselves for free. Throw in the drugs gangs and and what goes with that and you have a scenario not too dissimilar to Colombia. So no wonder the people of Ecuador are crying out for a Government that will crack down harder on illegal activity and protect people more. That in my opinion suits Correa and his representative Luisa. Correa knows how to deal with the drug lords. It's never about eco issues... it's always about money and power.

Chart look beautiful... nice steady climb and solid upward trend. There will be a break out (eg 10%+ rise day) in near future imho. Likely based around another contract win, but the TA is crying out for a spike north.

Global markets trading highest levels ever seen. Inflation?? Recession?? Summer lull?? Market not listening at all. But for some reason still happy to peg PFC sub 90p levels when it was trading nicely in the 150's last time market was this jubbly bubbly.

Useful link for anyone tracking the Ecuador Polls.

Looking like Correa's girl in the lead by some margin. Looks likely to go to October run off.

Correa very much pro mining and pro business.

Looking good.

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-ecuadors-2023-presidential-election

Bozi, I think you've contradicted your previous point. So are BHP just playing games with their interest in SOLG?? Will they continue to play games like your Noront example and bid SOLG higher if a low ball drops? Why haven't they sold out if not interested? They could have sold to the chinese?? Blackrock exited a 5.5% holding over a few months mind you... but exiting a 10% position quite doable and no shortage of takers for that stock.

So what are BHP waiting for then? Perhaps they are waiting to see what low ball lands and then counter it? Perhaps they are planning to do another Wyloo / Noront and make sure the buyer pays top whack?? That's why the Noront example is very relevant in many ways. You best let Orphencopper know.

Redknight,

The bashers are struggling now... even Orpherncopper dismissed the Noront resources reference embarrassing himself. Let's assume that BHP were indeed just playing with Twiggy and wanted Wyloo to pay top buck. So they bid twice on an asset they didn't want is the Orpherncopper/Bozi line of thought just to be spiteful to Wyloo?? Mmm. Well... I'm surprised why they can't apply the same to SOLG then? If a low ball is landed at 25p or 30p, then why wouldn't BHP just go on another little spiteful bid war to see the buyers pay top whack?? Of course... there is always the reality that there is no spite involved at all and BHP wanted Noront like they want SOLG. Until the first bid lands we won't know but I am certainly of the view that even if BHP don't want it anymore.... they'll make whoever is buying pay top buck. Why wouldn't they? They won't roll over and see it gifted away. Nor will Newmont for that matter. Nor will Mather or Tenstar at et al. The CGP boys just have to land a first bid and the rest will spiral. Unless of course it's a cracker from the get go at 75p+.

The bashers are good news... I know the green lines are tedious but when they disappear or don't look bothered, that's when it's time to worry! Bashers only post all day for one reason... and that's pretty obvious as Kat2008 says.

The more they post the more obvious it becomes. Agendas are easy to spot.

We've ticked off mine licence 25years with Ecuador gov. That's important for a buyer or partner.

We've ticked off the exploitation agreement cited for end of the year so 6 months early. Mmm. Another very important milestone sorted and ahead of guidance.

Someones in a rush I feel. I think we'll find out sooner than many think.

Everything looks very good right now. All the things we needed or wanted are now in place. Maxit's job should be very straight forward and with over 11 months since SR announced, interested parties have plenty of due diligence under their belts already.

What's not to like.... it's all coming together nicely.

The half year results is a historic non event as the company has already stated exactly what is coming as per the trading update and guidance updates. The half year results are just the formal accounting procedure. Yes... you will get insight into what has been spent where, what is making loads of money and legacy loss making contracts. But the bottom line is.... they have already told you that H1 will show a loss and that H2 is heavily loaded to the cash flows which will see the business roughly breakeven by end of year. That's a pretty good result considering the loss making contracts are the main drag on 2023. Nothing significant on legacy issues is expected to roll into 2024 which suggest that they should be knocking out around £100m to £200m in profits next year. That's well worth a £1bln market cap based on forward order book of $7bln+

SOLG are rare and unique in that they have 100% ownership (uncomplicated) of a Tier 1 copper/gold/silver asset. These are rare indeed and super majors often have to buy up much bigger mid tier companies to even get close to Tier 1 style resources. Add to this that SOLG's footprint in Ecuador is one of the largest a this comes at a time when new mining licences in Ecuador look highly unlikely. Anglo, Rio, FMG, Newmont, BHP, Codelco and others are all present in Ecuador and it's only Codelco that seem to have a sizeable asset in development. All these majors have been trying to find what SOLG discovered long ago. It's becoming harder for them to explore. Add to this, you have the likes of smart investors like Gina R buying up important land in and around cascabel. Franco/Chinese chucking 100m+ into SOLG.

I think some of you need to wake up. Too much following the share price and not enough following of the asset.

The market is useless at valuing companies at the moment. It's embarrassing. Wood Group were £900m market cap or 90p or so before Apollo made a bid for them at 240p. The market got it wrong to the tune of £1.1bln. That deal fell through in the end but the point is... the sp level today has zero reflection on where it will end in a bid situation. Noront example simply shows another poor woeful market valuation prior to a bid.

Ultimately, SOLG's bid price will be £4bln+ because whoever is buying it is also committing to build the asset which we know is going to cost £2bln to £3bln. It's like a buying house with potential. There's lots of money in it if the renovation all goes well but not much in it if it doesn't go well. Sometimes Majors are happy to buy the house that's already done... and the combination of smaller mines or assets end up returning the same profit levels but with less risk. But with SOLG, the risk of Alpala is offset through an extensive footprint and exploration folio which presents any buyer of SOLG with many opportunities to strike gold or copper. There are not many opportunities like SOLG and it won't go cheap. So forget the current share price... it's irrelevant and reflects nothing more than a weak and pony market that forgot how to value companies a couple of years ago. Post covid brain fog is what the markets have unless of course it's a tech stock and then that's ok to price it in the multi billions even without a penny made.

Probably drift until an offer arrives... well that depends how it's telegraphed doesn't it. Remember ortherncopper, SOLG always does the opposite to what you think.

Ortherncopper,

What about tomorrow.. drift again? Next day?? What a pointless comment. What will it do when an offer lands? Mmm. Invested? You most certainly are not.

The clocks ticking and that licence of 25 years will be shrinking by the day... payments due at stage phases as well all points to SOLG's confidence in getting a deal sorted for Alpala. You don't start the clock on something like this unless you are very sure you have a partner or buyer lined up.

Definitely a push to get Alpala wrapped up before new party comes in post elections. This has basically removed all the risk with the upcoming elections imho as legally binding and very difficult to unpick.

Now... if the chinese or another party want to get Alpala tied up... they may as well strike a deal now before elections as Lasso will be off in a few months time.

I guess we all know where that $25m (first payment) is coming from then?? Either CGP share issue to chinese for another 5% or to Maxit et all for cash just before they agree a sale lol! Noses in troughs always noisiest before takeovers or monetisation events. It's human nature. Scott got his 17p options and Chinese mopped up another 1% while the paint was drying here. mmm.

Very good numbers indeed. I think Singida looks a bit front ended as they've stockpiled and then bunged it all into this Q report. No problem with that but going forwards numbers likely to be less. Looks like Eric has gone for a headline arresting Q report knowing that he won't be around for when the Q3 report comes out lol!

Anyway... does it really matter whether they front end or even out the production numbers ?? Not really. The key is... production looking healthy again. The question is... can they sustain NLGM's numbers with moderate AISC's or will this ageing mine require more Capex.

Certainly deserves a move back to 11p/12p levels. But be wary of the forward story imho. This is an 'Eric' farewell Q report imho and he's going out in style!

Great news indeed and like I said all parties seem in a bit of a rush to get this sorted before Lasso departs. I wonder whether the chinese will now make a move before elections and get a deal signed???

No coincidence that this has been fast tracked when it was due or expected for end of the year.

Terms look great and have in no doubt (in my mind) been requested or negotiated with SOLG on behalf of a future partner or owner.

To this that said nothing would happen here until later in the year. You were wrong.

It's now very much game on and starter gun officially fired.

Great to have this tied up pre elections.

Well done Scott, Mather and team.