Member Info for Fortissimo

Bozi, from what I gather it's some gangland battling between main drug dealers. Ironically, it's the export side... eg the Colombian's that are unhappy with some politicians. Bulk of Ecuador is absolutely fine, it's just drug cartels fighting it out as they've had their brown bag brigade disrupted... which happens with every Election or every 4 years.

Ecuador like Colombia and majority of SA is heavily dictated by the cocaine trade that all these countries 'openly' do. The world needs the white powder apparently!

I agree 80p or 100p not to be expected here. 79p possible though.

Fernando Villavicencio was an activist and investigative journalist who was famous for revealing evidence leading to charges against Correa.

As we know... Correa's leading lady is top of the polls at the moment so I would conclude that Correa and his gangs are well and truly in control. I don't think the election result will see anything but a Correa win through his leading candidate.

Very sad to see someone as brave as Fernando Villavicencio executed like this by the very people he exposed.

Looks to me like Correa back in control and the important gang land factions behind him. Doesn't bode well for Ecuador as a whole but mining will be absolutely fine under Correa rule as that's exactly as things were before Lasso.

Good to see some strength in the sp and recent rise as will admit I was expecting a bit of a punch on the nose this morning. Seems like we have a buyer soaking up some flaky traders. Or the shorts are holding it high so they can take out more weights at 86p range to help push it back to low 70's. Sometimes it's better for shorts to let it run a bit before adding weights. Nice resilience today ... for a change! But early days. Good to see the back of H1 now.

I think they were hoping to announce the MERAM Project win from ADNOC as timings were perfect for it. But for whatever reason, seems they lost out on that one. A nice $3bln contract is exactly what was needed to go along with H1 results.

Reading some posts I think it's clear a few on here sold out a few days ago and clearly a bit annoyed at the sp leap yesterday.

Results had already been telegraphed early in the trading update but will admit they do seem to have kitchen sinked this H1 as was expecting $50m write downs and not $67m. Headline loss thus $122m when most were expecting $100m.

The business is in fine shape looking forwards with order book in terrific shape. But market these days is so short sighted ... so pessimistic that valuation is on the here and now. And at present, PFC still exhibiting some fresh cuts and scraps from legacy contracts when most were expecting scars to have formed or fully healed. Grrrrrr.

Really needed another decent Adnoc contract win to offset today's kitchen sink results.

Qube Research & Technologies Limited actually added some short yesterday lol!

Ouch... they've been pasted today.

It was never in doubt. Like I said... only so many times it could bounce off that 82p ceiling. Now it's all about 100p+. Equiv levels based on last year and bond levels - 120p share price would be about right.

This market is bonkers.

Copperpot, the CGP boys need an exit. A JV or farm in is not likely to deliver that unless Maxit et al sell their shares to the JV partner which can't be underestimated (I'm alright jack approach) as they offloaded a chunk to BHP some years ago.

If a JV gets announced then I think you'll see a counter offer or alternative offer by Newmont or BHP or both. That's the point here.... it's not what gets announced.... it's what happens after that announcement. There are many super majors out there that are very keen on copper and are struggling to find tier1 gold mines that are 100% owned and not fragmented. There are many super majors in Ecuador right now and many are not getting anywhere fast due to licence issues and handcuffs on new mining permits. I don't think BHP will let this opportunity slip by. Copper is soon to be the hottest metal out there.

You are bonkers man. Perez polled well down the list. He will have a roll to play if there's a run off. Assembly control important has can inhibit presidential influence.

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-ecuadors-2023-presidential-election

There's only so many times that it can bounce off that 81p/82p roof. It's getting to that point when it will break through. You know when.... just when you sell a few... lol! Sector has renewed interest at last with Wood and hunting both flying lately. PFC still lagging which is ironic as the contract wins booked by PFC blow away Hunting and Wood's recent wins.

About 10m+ shorts still there... knock knock... margin calls for some of them soon.

PFC should be 100p+ based on multiple indicators both forward looking and historic.

I'm guessing they are going to announce another large contract deal next week... just a hunch!

Aug 1st 2022... PFC share price 114p. Bonds 75. Order book/back log circa $3.7bln.

Aug 1st 2023... PFC share price 79.5p. Bonds 74.9 Order book/back log circa $5.6bln (and rising!)

This market is nuts.... absolutely nuts.

At 114p, PFC would be back to sp levels synonymous with $3.7bln order book.

So what should it be with $5.6bln order book??? 79.5p lol!

Rerate coming as the market has been caught with its pants down.

Low volume summer markets for you I'm afraid. That said, WoodGroup and Hunting both up almost 6% since last week on news of Tory push for black gold.

There's still at least 2%+ noticeable shorts out there that really don't want this spiking up into the 90's and 100's. It's like trying to keep a 2 year old in a cot... it's gonna break out soon and when it does it will wreak havoc on those shorters.

You don't sign mine life agreement of 25 years+ and ink exploitation terms unless you are 100% confident it is going ahead.

What on earth could SOLG have told the Ecuador gov to get those two key red tappers signed??

All will be revealed soon ... question is.... before or during or after the elections?? Answers on a post card.

US EIA revises May oil demand nearly 1 million barrels per day higher. Goldman sees $93 Brent.

They really are pumping it now. Not surprised to see the EIA with their pants down too. Well.... that's what happens when you talk it down to suit your own agenda (lower inflation issues) only then to realise that you best start correcting that or else you'll look like a right tom fiddler. Always better to do it in the summer months though... most are on their hols.

You gotta love these markets. Meanwhile PFC priced like covid has just broken! US market near all time highs for goodness sake. Get on with the re-rate!!!!

If they were to announce that they are splitting the business into 2 parts... 1. Exploration and 2. Planned ENSA IPO on Canadian market/dual listed possibly.. then that might justify a complete revamp of the website. May involve a pre sub or invitation to sell your shares in the IPO pre listing to Chinese entity of which likes of Maxit, Irwin and others have agreed pre IPO or during the IPO pricing stage etc etc etc.

Could take several months to sort and complete the IPO.

Something is brewing as like I said.... Ecuador Gov would not be signing over/ cutting the red tape stuff unless they had solid assurances from SOLG otherwise they'd end up looking rather stupid which wouldn't bodes well pre elections. Announcing a billion dollar investment deal prior to elections might well allow Lasso's party or aligned candidates to give Correa's crew a run for their money.

Goldman's were bashing oil a few weeks ago... they then load up on it and suddenly they are bullish and citing $85+ for US Crude. If Putin's going tiny another winter war, then oil going through $90 with ease. H2 will be a great news and data period for PFC as the old legacy tripe gets completed at long last. 2024 looks amazing.

You'll get some analysts upgrade notes off the back of this news once they've filled their boots first lol!

It's huge news for PFC as will without a doubt deliver some nice work for the oil services division.

There are no obstacles to chinese involvement at all. I think that message was loud and clear when Ecuador signed the first ever and very historic FTA with China some months ago.

The US might not like it... but then anything outside of the US that the US can't control in some form or another... generally results in them not liking it lol! The US is great at making sure any outside entities or business pay full US tax when doing business in states. But the it comes to US businesses operating outside the US, it's ok for them to apparently pay close to zero tax aka Amazon, Apple and so on. China have been heavily involved in Ecuador and South America for decades now. There is no stopping them now and the FTA proves that.