Member Info for Fortissimo

Brexit is the main reason for poor shape of UK economy. The negatives of Brexit were played down by Boris and co. I'm all for the UK dictating it's own policies and two fingers up to the euro elite... Germany/France. But the combination of losing a major workforce back to Europe combined with over 50's hanging their boots up post covid and voila... you have depleted workforce which in turn = wage inflation which intern spikes inflation. Had covid never happened... we would have been able to measure the damage of Brexit far more easily. Covid came at a time which was ideal for the Gov and they made the most of it as they knew it would make many Tory supporting businesses very rich through dodgy contract awards... the list goes on. Remember the main beneficiaries of inflation are the banks... these are the same banks that the UK tax payer bailed out 15 years ago. Some are still state owned. Yet are they delivering appropriate savings rates for savers? No. Are they delivering mortgage rates closer to BoE rate? No. Same old game. I think the Chinese summed up the property market issue recently simply saying... property is for 'living in' not for 'speculating on'. And that's the trouble with the west and capitalism. Everything is just a casino opportunity to bet on something. Chinese are constantly getting hammered in press but the world is realising that they are not the bad guy at all. It's the US and West are are serving their very own elite. It's pretty ugly to watch. For instance... it's ok for apple to basically have everyones data... but not ok for Huawei? Who decides these things?? The US wants to flog the UK bleached chicken and take over our health system. The chinese don't.

The bullish story grows for SOLG. You wouldn't know it looking at the sp but majority of miners beaten up of late with bellwether congloms like Anglo and Glencore trading at levels last seen when Covid broke and DOW30 tested sub 20k.

But all is well at SOLG. Key red tape hurdles jumped and signed with Ecuador gov. Election concerns now behind us. Both candidates pro mining but no doubt about it, Noboa is in with a chance if he can get the Topic vote/partnership going. If Noboa wins... when mining looks set for a star role in Ecuador's future.

I can understand a few on the sidelines being pessimistic or negative toward SOLG but none can ignore the bullish backdrop forming now. The dull summer period coming to an end too means one thing.... SOLG sp should soon be reflecting the long awaited reveal. Scott and Bob et al must deliver or else it's going to be curtains for them at the AGM. They've had long enough now. Time to deliver or.... else!

Interesting increase in budget for BHP. $3bln ish might buy ENSA but they'll need another $4bln to build it. Still... that can come out of 2025 budgets as likely the block cave shaft works would take up the first 18months of development.

Sizable increase in spend and comes on top of the recent $6bln ish splashed out on Oz Minerals. Mmm!

Andy... very good! Let's hope Maxit and bob knock it out of the park! Although there's a few on here who think we are in for a googly.

Election clearly no longer a stress...bodes well.

I think you meant....'As most on here know, you can't release an RNS of material news until it is finalised.'

I think it's more likely that the new website (when it arrives) will show a significant reduction in tenements. SOLG have around 60 and each one has a cash burden... or situation that comes down to (in simple terms) ....drill it or lose it.

I'm beginning to think the new website will be setting out the stall for the newco... assuming SOLG (the brand) goes with ENSA when hived off or sold.

They'll need to set out clearly what the 'exploration' business looks like and what the cash demands and commitments are if looking to raise cash to explore. Basically almost like an IPO.

Just a hunch, but I think it's all done and dusted and they are just buying sometime now before announcing the big news to the market likely in September when everyone has returned (st ledgers day and all that) or most likely October.

The only way SOLG can move forwards (as an exploration company) is to split itself from the burden of ENSA or vice versa, split ENSA off from the burden of exploration business which requires constant source of funds from a different investor entirely. That's the problem here. When you head to development, you have more financial / debt based driven investors who do not like direct non project linked cash burn.

There is a reason why they have had to drag their feet for the last two months but recently signed agreements with Ecuador gov suggests we are close now. Perhaps the politics / elections adds another dimension too with the newly elected president keen, I'm sure to announce a multibillion dollar mining investment early in her reign (my assumption there).

Markets in general topped off last week or the week before so regardless of PFC specific issues, the sp would be tracking down with market sentiment. Disappointing but better to have occurred at high 80's rather than low 70's otherwise sp would be in mid to low 60's again and it's a hard battle to get out of that trading range.

Results were a surprise in that they were 20% over forecast (eg. $120m loss vs expected $100m). But maintaining neutral guidance for FY helped soften the blow. Finally a large $3.5bln contract with ADNOC was expected as PFC were one of the preferred bidders. For whatever reason, PFC lost out. Had they banked that contract, I think market would have pushed the stock into the 90's from the mid 80's platform.

PFC are set to have a flat year in 2023 and it's all about 2024 although they did say they expected some legacy contracts to drag onto to early 2024 when previously the hope was that 2023 would be the end of them. I think they said they are over half way through the 13 legacy contracts so still 6 to go. Likely to complete those over next 6 months+ is my guess.

So disappointing to see the momentum lost but it will build again once market returns to proper trading 3rd week of Sept.

Noboa was way down the polls so looks like Topic voters switched to Noboa. Or the polls were way off the mark in first place.

As term is just 18months, no matter who wins, it's going to be more of a continued prolonged election campaign as they go again in early 2025. Opportunity to make some positive headlines over next 18 months will be key for the winner/party.

Yep looks like a run off which will happen in October. Both candidates look pro mining and Daniel Noboa very much pro business. Basically another Correa vs Lasso style situation. I think the chinese and anyone else doing business in Ecuador will be very happy with that scenario.

There is no doom or gloom. SOLG are in fine shape. Yes the SP is on the floor but it matters zero to long tremors if the end game is to exit one a bid/offer. The sp could be 25p today. Makes no difference. So could be 35p... makes no difference. To the traders and investors that like to use margin and leverage etc then yes... a higher sp helps with furnishing a suite of opportunity trades/investments. But for most... it's tuck the shares away and wait for the pay day. Noront was 21 cents... doom and gloom and not much going on there. Then in space of a month or two and some bidding and counter bids it ends up at 110cents. The market can price stocks where it likes. But it can't do anything about bids when they are tabled. The market is forced to follow the bid price and mark it up.

I think the importance of the recent exploitation agreements and mine extensions or 25 year mine life term sheet signed... have been conveniently ignored by a few on here. These are key red tape events. Ecuador gov would not have signed those deals unless they KNEW that SOLG were close or in final stages of agreeing a deal.

Finally, I hate to say it, but I do think Maxit et al are keen to realign investor expectations. By having a share price that is flat and boring, going no where fast and at multi year lows will certainly make investors more interested in any deals pitched in the 30's. Previously with an sp in the mid 20's, presenting deals in the 30's would be seen as a failure. If Maxit announced a deal tomorrow at 35p, then the headline would read... SOLG gets offer from XXXXX gifting shareholders a whopping 150% premium to closing share price.

The reality is.. 35p would be a shambles and merely represent a level achieved some 12months ago and well below levels achieved in years earlier.

Remember, the CGP are already bolstered their holdings and got their averages down or weights up with 17p options. That makes a deal in the mid 30's feel more like a deal in the mid 45's to them if not the 50's. And they still have 100m+ shares to gift themselves or their buddies under the ruse of SOLG needing more capital etc etc but that won't strike a cord until Q4. Remember, accounts need to be signed off and auditors like sight of at least 6months cash in hand or in some cases 12months dependent on the business commitments.

I'm unfortunately cynical enough of the CGP crew to think they won't miss the opportunity to line their pockets with a cheap mates rates placing and think they see this 100m CGP shares as their own... not SOLG's. But that's just my opinion.

Addicknt, agree... I mentioned Topic the other day as thought he was looking stronger by the day. As you mention... Perez and lefty lovies tree huggers etc etc are way down the list. Self preservation hitting home at these latest polls suggesting individual value their own lives and safety more than the environment.

I still think Correa will get back in albeit through his lady representative. Question is... can Topic push it to a run off and stretch the process out another couple of months or more?

Miners seem to have been battered more than the oil & gas players suggesting it might be china focused on weaker metals demand. Anglo (AAL) a bellwether for mining stocks now down to covid levels which is remarkable as DOW 30 was tinkering around the 19k mark back then. So Major indices seem to be prop'd up by stocks benefiting from inflation and rising rates like the banks and super markets etc but mining stocks and infrastructure stocks look easy prey based on lower margins.

It all feels a bit fabricated to me and designed to try and push Chinese into stimulus measures first with US likely to follow once China has taken the brunt of it. I don't think China will helping rest of globe out unless they see coordinated action. That can't really happen until rate rising circle has completed which should be October/November 2023.

Until then, it's turning a bit ugly in a weal liquidity market over dull summer months meaning one thing... exaggerated moves (up and down) to be expected.

Oh... and it's Friday which seems to compounded by the usual Aug 3rd week option expiry period.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1023952/august-s-stock-option-expiry-to-add-spice-to-friday-s-trading-1023952.html

Basically much about nothing but liquidity making share price moves more pronounced.

"bruised SOLG bulls who need regular reassurance."?

Bozi... who are these song bulls you talk about that need reassurance? You making things up again?

I think Warren is merely taking the view that should an offer be tabled, counter offers are likely to follow. No one will make a move until the first one lays the bid down. It's a shame we can't have an ebay style auction as the only thing missing here is the time count down clock... which for many bulls has been stretched but the nothings changed regarding the asset or what it will deliver I terms of profits come production in late 2020's.

Markets look about as dull as a British summer (well this year anyway).

Do you have any bruises yourself from any other stocks you hold?? I think I know of one other. mmm.

The reason for delaying porvenir PFS is because the inflation backdrop makes it look barely economical. With costs rising around 10% to 20% across the board and metal prices remaining depressed, the numbers just don't stack up. Throw in the added issue of a 5 fold increase (or more like 3 fold) on debt or finance and it's really not something to be championing to market.

When or if copper gets a surge on (probably 2024/25) and inflation drops to predicted levels of around half what t is today... then by all means bang out a nice PFS. Until then... keep your head down... and avoid pi55ing into the wind.

DM

See link below

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/copper-discoveries-declining-trend-continues

See Porvenir on there anywhere? And you think that's not worth £350m+?

Don't recall Scott saying anything negative about Porvenir but it's clear as mustard that doing another MRE on Porvenir or Cascabel is pretty self defeating if aligning with today's inflation numbers and metals prices.

Porvenir is a very large discovery... if Scott plays it down at all then it's probably because he wants to chuck it in with ENSA to sweeten a deal with the Chinese lol! We know the Chinese like Porvenir. We know the market cares not a jot about it. Hence my point to Bozi... what's the point of finding a world class resource (top ten finds) if the market simply ignores it?? I don't think he's grasped that but yet! Yes... exploration is vital for growth but not at a time when the market doesn't want to listen... it's just a cash drain in that situation.

Ortherncopper, I'm not sure 'exploration' does any good near term. I used to think it was the main catalyst but not in these recent markets. Lots of companies out there delivering some nice drill hole results and the market just ignores it. No one is interested at present... the pi hype days have gone. SOLG spent a lot of cash on Porvenir. And rightfully so... it actually ranks very highly on the table of top discoveries across the globe. It's probably worth SOLG's current market cap. That's the irony here. If the market doesn't reward exploration results... then what's the point in burning the cash and in process weaken your financial position on your main asset sale ambitions which is by far the most important.

Recent financial raises and royalty streams have given you plenty of insights into how and why SOLG has a dilemma with regard to core business of exploration and the jewel in the crown ... ENSA. All funding of late has been toward derisking and developing ENSA. Funders don't like it when they give a company cash toward ENSA and then find it's been blown on exploration that has delivered some nice holes but is light years away from delivering conclusive MRE's not to mention more cash burdens along the way.

In summary, SOLG has an. enormous Asset on its hands and as a company is way too small to develop it. But equally... the process in seeing this asset to fruition means doing exploration across folio will have to wait. And in this market, I think it's the right decision. As for everything else in your post about 'desperate' and weak positions etc... just the usual garbage from you... made up in your head ... and based on zero evidence. Just because SOLG are quiet on internals, does not mean they are desperate or weak. That's your perception. There's an election event coming this Sunday and all involved will want to see some stability (politically) back in Ecuador after some testing 18months under lasso. Correa wants back in and looks like he's going to achieve it.

Personally... FWIIW.. I'd like to see SOLG split the business into two. ENSA and Exploration. Float the exploration business as a new entity and allow investors to have shares in that business or sell out and stick with ENSA. Vice versa etc.

Problem is... there's no doubt about it... SOLG is far more attractive as 'one bite' sale with that exploration folio bolted into any deal. That's the issue... undisputed mining acreage is hard to find in ecuador and SOLG has bulk of it. That helps derisk any concerns over ENSA as presents some ops for the buyer to seek growth outside of ENSA if or when is required.

I guess it all depends on where Fernando Villavicencio's voters go to... whether they stay with replacement candidate or move to someone like Jan Topic. The latter looks like he could push it to a run off imho.

"Ecuador has undoubtedly lost its reputation as one of the safer places to live and do business in South America."

I think the evidence of far worst situation in other SA countries clarified the point that Ecuador's recent political disruption is just that... disruption. To job on the back of that and imply that's it's lost reputation is fair enough but not really true on a broader scale comparison. As DBW posted... Ecuador is clearly ONE of if not THE safest places to invest and operate in the entirety of South America. It was never a paradise... in first place so think it's more of just the usual political disruptions which always occur before majority of SA elections. Didn't ecuador have similar situation when Correa fled?

Elections on Sunday likely to show Correa (or his side kick lady) well in front and possibly clear winner.

I think 200p unlikely but like your bullishness. For anyone wanting to take the risk on Alpala without the crucial elevator/decline drill data for block caving... they'll expect that risk to be factored into the price eg... big discount.

Bozi... Brazil mining and international commerce with major Super majors has been up and down but they are still there and they are still doing exports as are Peru, Chile and others.

It's very sad but I'm afraid to tell you it's par for the course in these regions as below link shows. Ecuador is actually way way better than bulk of SA countries. But politics is very different over there to what it is over here. They shoot you dead over there, whereas over here they just kill you a different way... usually through the press/media.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-party-official-shot-dead-pre-election-political-violence-escalates-2022-07-10/

The headline figure looks great but unfortunately the key factors that matter were all the same and have not fallen at all which is remarkable considering the bucket load of interest hikes. I believe the main issue for the BoE at present is wage rises offsetting their rate rises combined with a new era of 'work from home' which adds makes wage packets go further due to reduced train fares, lunch expenses, clothing expenses, car expenses, fuel expenses... etc etc. These factors didn't exist before... hence why BoE's rate increases to combat inflation is slow process and if anything a bit out of date and out of touch.