Member Info for Fortissimo

FMG has keen company. Majority of super majors are in ecuador already BHP included but most have small acreage and early stage exploration. FMG are the second largest acreage holder in Ecuador to SOLG I believe but anyone out there free to correct me.

FMG may well end up with it all. But first bid and offer will come from chinese (imho). They are invested with a 6% stake at 16p/17p levels so will do nicely even if they lose out but it's small fry compared to the mining /resources opportunity lost.

Lately there has been some Aussie consolidation and with BHP / Oz minerals deal finalised (may 2023) and Newcrest Newmont deal set to conclude next Q I believe, the pool of miners reduces. But the power of some has increased. Newmont are a bigger business now with NCM under their belt. I don't think Newmont will be ditching anything in Ecuador. But equally... I don't see them acquiring that much more either. Twiggy or FMG looks set to bleed GGP dry or at the very least dilute them further. I don't think FMG have friendly ideas for GGP. They are tough business players. So reckon we'll need multiple interested parties to see FMG pay decent price. But I like the idea of Twiggy v BHP again. Now that would be fun.

DM, you do understand that any 'new' or updated PFS's are required to input current interest rates, inflationary issues and metal prices.

Seriously... why the ....$%%^^ would SOLG go and do that? Sometimes you need to align your frustrations with the market and changing circumstances rather than with SOLG. Don't get me wrong... it's frustrating... but there's absolutely no point what-so-ever burning cash on speculative exploration when you need to conserve it all to help give you the upper hand with your current jewel in crown and most important asset. Yes.. I want exploration too but I don't want to see us do more dilution or give the buyers or partners of ENSA the upper hand.

Sometimes you have to be smart and realise that decisions are made for a reason and based on strength. SOLG is in a strong position right now. Had they blown $30m on exploration, we might have another Alpala on our hands or we could have another cash call on our hands. Furthermore, it's possible when the chinese took part in the last capital raise at 16p/17p... they did so on bass of no further dilution until ENSA deal concluded. Who knows. But get a deal done on ENSA and then return to exploration makes perfect sense. Or... split the company into two and allow some investors to exit or take part in a dilutive capital raise to fund an exploration folio. I think the latter is what is being planned and hence the website revisit or delays. Just a hunch!

But in summary... promises made 12months ago... sometimes need reviewing against market backdrop. A new PFS today would be a disaster. But a new PFS next year might be great. Timing is everything.

It's chinese.

I think you need to ignore the management line and focus on the Tier1 status of the mine. How many minnows do you know that make it this far with 100% interest and as such 100% capital development costs. It's the mining cycle game for you. Most minnows farm out the bulk of it through super majors tapping them up in early stages. Often forced to Gove it all away on the cheap like GGP and Newcrest scenario. SOLG ducked that... it was a masterstroke. Tapping royalty payments was only possible due to the quality of the asset and the size of it.

So ask yourself a different question... instead of looking at corporate activity and predicting it... ask yourself how many Tier1 mining assets are out there now that are NOT in a super majors hands or a very large Chinese conglomerate or National like Codelco etc??

I don't believe SOLG will be the first minnow to be 'stuck' with a Tier1 asset on the eve of a massive copper shortage do you?? Focus on the asset, it's world class... greatest find in last 10 years and has amazing metal mix which smelters die for. It's a cracker. But it's risky block cave and demands a lot of Capex before payback time and that doesn't suit the likes of BHP and other super major shareholders these days who just want fast low hanging fruit deliverables with zero risk. Trouble is... they are short lived and becoming harder to find.

Doing the test shaft would boost the asset price assuming ti derricks via proof of concept. Not sure how much that would cost.. possibly $200m? Think Darryl said it could take 18months to complete... so on that basis, SOLG would need to JV rather than it be an outright sale. So you could see a deal that gives away 10% of ENSA in return for all the blind sunk shaft work or staged % stakes on completion of various derisking works. I don't think Maxit and co want this style of monetisation as it's simply kicking can down the road but that said... if copper prices are soaring in 2025 and SOLG had a proven mine shaft that derricks entire project further, then the 90% ENSA stake is going to be worth double what it is today.

It's always a game of business acumen vs greed or desire for early cash in the hand etc. Unfortunately for us (or fortunately!) we have Maxit on board and they are the 'early cash' types.

WG also got the Harbour Energy North Sea deal as announced today. WG certainly notching up the wins but was hoping PFC would feature in this North Sea resurgence which is down to Sunak and co. Just keep oil going is Sunak's mantra.

The long awaited PFS issued last year answered many of the questions raised by the Mayfair paid for service Crux boys report. If you read the utter nonsense they recently produced on GGP then you'll soon know how they make their money. That said, the elephant in room will always be the question over block caving and to derisk that you have to have drill the test shafts and demonstrate it works. But that's the reason why someone would pay $3bln for SOLG vs $6bln. $3bln is small fry and works on a serious risk basis eg heavy discount.

I can't argue with other posters who point to slow progress on the sale... I think we all expected a swift sale as Tier 1 assets are rare and in high demand. But inflation issues of late combined with political issues of late all suggest the path ro a monetisation event has been or will have been slower than if the market was doing cartwheels and copper was hitting all time highs. Like all markets, there is a good time to sell and a bad time to sell. Sometimes... it pays to wait and be patient.

Historically, based on the last 12 months, SOLG much more advanced now. They've achieved major milestones and sign offs which are all crucial to a sale or monetisation event.

1. ENSA investment protection agreement signed ... tick.

2. ENSA consolidated to 100% so simple for Asse sale or JV... tick.

3. Ecuador gov agree mine life 25years... tick.

4. Ecuador gov sign crucial exploitation agreement... tick.

5. Ecuador elections firs round passes and eco warriors out of equation... pro mining candidates left in run off.... tick.

6. Ecuador new laws signed that limit mining exploration based on NEW licences but old licences (like many SOLG hold) given protection or go ahead. This is important as SOLG holds greater acreage in Ecuador.

7. Markets beginning to signal that inflation looks contained (although needs to fall faster) and possible rate cuts coming so debt finance likely to be much cheaper in late 2023 or early/mid 2024.

8. Possible to look at early deals on open pit on Tandy or similar around Porvenir. Potentially mitigates risk on ENSA and allows low hanging fruit production to commence alongside Cascabel development.

Remember... SOLG's share price was fairly steady in the 36p to 39p range ahead of the PFS and tested 41p after PFS.

The above is all very positive yet today the sp is 15p. So let's face it... the market has lost interest in miners like SOLG and are happy to price the stock on the basis that nothing meaningful will happen. The market did the same with Noront. In situations like these the market is simply saying... prove us wrong and deliver a monetisation event and then we'll wake up.

And you know what... that's fair enough. But don't for one moment try and align the low sp to SOLG's world class Tier 1 assets and folio. That's nonsense. The market has proven to be a woeful valuation tool and real value will only be seen here ONCE Scot, Bob and Maxit deliver the deal. Until then it coul

Volume is usually your friend but I think that's different with SOLG now everyone involved is fully invested. Everyone that wants in is already ... in. There might be a few irrelevant pi's with their £20k+ sitting on sidelines or rolling the dice on other stocks but that's not going to give you a meaningful volume surge.

Noront was calm waters before their first bid so no leaks there which was a surprise. Wood Group (was FTSE 100, now FTSE 250) was looking unwanted at 100p levels and volume poor. Next day... Apollo made 220p offer. There are quite a few examples out there where volume does not give you any idea a bid is coming so be careful if you are using that as your signal to invest.

Probably the usual end of month tidy up, but 1.8m block the largest for sometime.

So that's it then. September starts on a fresh round 15p. Let's see where it gets to over the next 12 weeks. Anything less than mid 20's and the AGM is not going to be much fun for the CGP boys. It's time they delivered especially after the grotesque option awards earlier in the year.

Tick tock Scott. You can't point the finger at Mather this time or anyone else. Just you... and you only... oh and Bob and Maxit of course. Reputations at stake here.

Might be a precursor to the much anticipated (although all guesses on my part) spin off of the exploration folio/ business?? They might feel it better to leave ENSA on LSE and move spin off to ASX or dual list. Remember, in last few presentations, the Aussie assets (gathering dust) were included which might suggest some that are involved in SOLG (no guesses there) want to progress them in some form.

No point reading too much into it, as think the next update will reveal all. IMHO... the exploration folio has some cash commitments coming up and if they don't pay up then they lose them eg relinquish them. You don't want cause cash issues for the mother ship (ENSA) so any capital raises for exploration folio may well be better off done via newco.

Just a hunch... but when this all gets sorted, I think one Mather's caveat's to signing it off will be that he gets some of the exploration folio ... whether that's free or via greater stake in the newco ... who knows but these boys don't like letting anything go especially Mather. Mather wants to carry on doing exploration... that's clear... so perhaps a deal is done where he heads up the newco exploration business and ENSA gets sold or jv'd and Mather agrees with lower price but gets lions share of newco exploration etc etc. I don't think the CGP guys are too bothered about exploration (or the dilution to fund it) but sure they will keep a toe in there a bit like they did with CGP stake in SOLG. Lets see what they deliver... but they have to please Mather and his buddies or else it won't fly imho.

Maxit will likely have sounding out Newmont too as that's major shareholder in SOLG (thru NCM acquisition). Newmont have said (mind you which miner out there hasn't) that they want copper. Also, they do already have NCM's Ecuador footprint which includes the decent royalty stream on licence in south.

Also it's quite possible that First Quantum were in the loop for ENSA (as media rumour suggested a Canadian outfit was interested) but learned they have lost out or can't pay what others are capable of or putting forward etc. Or perhaps they just liked Peru more? Or perhaps they were not in running at all. But there are some noises out there about a large copper deal about to be announced. Might not be SOLG... might something else entirely but it's not the FQ/Rio deal as that's too early stage phase to fit with rumour.

Something cooking for sure but then when hasn't there been with SOLG! When it happens ... it happens.

Miners all getting repositioned for next hot metal phase being 'copper'.

I think the new website delay gives the game away a bit. It's a great opportunity to split the business into two and announce via new website which sets out the case for the exploration arm of the business or newco while dev discussions or deal is announced on ENSA.

Ecuador gov would not be signing off the red tape without from commitment from SOLG that they can (or have a interested party that can) finance the wider project.

Eloro, bb's are for speculation and some to talk their own book or vice versa.. it's only natural to see some posters that have sold out and want in cheaper to take a dim view of SOLG.

But the facts are there for all to see.

1. Alpala one of the greatest copper/gold discoveries in last decade. It's massive.

2. Markets will turn attention to copper when they have to ... which is when it suits them lol! You just have to look at nickel and other metals to see how one minute the market prices the at rock bottom levels and the next they are doing cartwheels higher.

3. Ecuador Gov do not sign key red tape issues like mine life and exploitation agreements without a very solid understanding of the value of those agreements and the status of the project and the interested parties involved.

4. The Rio/FQ La Granja JV is 'inferred resources'... eg very speculative and yet the numbers involved are still just shy of $700m for 55% stake. If that was on 'indicted' basis, my guess it would be double. You are looking at a relative level of around $3bln for Alpala.

SOLG are in fine shape. Noront were in fine shape too when the market priced them at 23 cents. You wouldn't know it looking at those beaten up share prices. But you the know the rest. Cartwheels in share price increase follow when bidders emerge.

As for Orpherncopper... loads of the usual baseless negativity from an apparent investor lol! You are about as invested in SOLG as low trawler or loganair by sounds of things. I wonder... are you the same person? Don't bother answering that.

Certainly interesting when you look at miners in general. Many are down near covid 2020 levels as market seemingly disinterested in copper focused miners. First quantum's share price was $5 cd in 2020. Today, it's just shy of $35 cd. That's a 7 fold rise over last 3 years+.

Big projects with big capital going ahead which bodes well.

Yes can't ignore that... SOLG does tend to drift in the summer months. But I think most would agree that elections were cited as a potential banana skin as no one knows how the voters go. Just look at Noboa for instance. His surge shocked the pollsters in same way Perez showed them in last election. Always seems to be some unknowns so very good news to come through that event which has been hanging around since lasso declared mid May this year.

Thanks mog999, wasn't aware of this so will certainly listen in. Good to see a return back to 15p levels after the dip into the 13's. I think it's clear that political issues have played their part on SOLG's recent decline. It's not just the usual drift on no news. If you take the 18p level which was held reasonably well back in May, then factor in Lasso's early or mid May declaration to dissolve parliament and launch elections... you can see the drift gather speed. So although surprising, I think the 13p levels going into the elections was factoring in a poor result for miners eg Perez doing well. The result ended up the opposite and is very much pro mining, so surprised (equally) at the slow trace back to 18p again.

With election risks wiped out now, SOLG should be heading back for the 20's based on expectation of Scott's grande reveal. Lets face it, the stock was able to run up to early 40's on the basis of the PFS last year and if anything things have improved all-round with 100% ENSA, easier to JV and easier to buy.. no fear of cash running out... and 2 key red tape government approved milestones sorted as well.

It's been a drag but I think the next 4 months or 16 weeks will be very defining for SOLG as AGM fast approaches and shareholders will not be accepting anything other than a monetisation event or else ... it's the chop for Scott and co.

Brexit is the main reason for poor shape of UK economy. The negatives of Brexit were played down by Boris and co. I'm all for the UK dictating it's own policies and two fingers up to the euro elite... Germany/France. But the combination of losing a major workforce back to Europe combined with over 50's hanging their boots up post covid and voila... you have depleted workforce which in turn = wage inflation which intern spikes inflation. Had covid never happened... we would have been able to measure the damage of Brexit far more easily. Covid came at a time which was ideal for the Gov and they made the most of it as they knew it would make many Tory supporting businesses very rich through dodgy contract awards... the list goes on. Remember the main beneficiaries of inflation are the banks... these are the same banks that the UK tax payer bailed out 15 years ago. Some are still state owned. Yet are they delivering appropriate savings rates for savers? No. Are they delivering mortgage rates closer to BoE rate? No. Same old game. I think the Chinese summed up the property market issue recently simply saying... property is for 'living in' not for 'speculating on'. And that's the trouble with the west and capitalism. Everything is just a casino opportunity to bet on something. Chinese are constantly getting hammered in press but the world is realising that they are not the bad guy at all. It's the US and West are are serving their very own elite. It's pretty ugly to watch. For instance... it's ok for apple to basically have everyones data... but not ok for Huawei? Who decides these things?? The US wants to flog the UK bleached chicken and take over our health system. The chinese don't.

The bullish story grows for SOLG. You wouldn't know it looking at the sp but majority of miners beaten up of late with bellwether congloms like Anglo and Glencore trading at levels last seen when Covid broke and DOW30 tested sub 20k.

But all is well at SOLG. Key red tape hurdles jumped and signed with Ecuador gov. Election concerns now behind us. Both candidates pro mining but no doubt about it, Noboa is in with a chance if he can get the Topic vote/partnership going. If Noboa wins... when mining looks set for a star role in Ecuador's future.

I can understand a few on the sidelines being pessimistic or negative toward SOLG but none can ignore the bullish backdrop forming now. The dull summer period coming to an end too means one thing.... SOLG sp should soon be reflecting the long awaited reveal. Scott and Bob et al must deliver or else it's going to be curtains for them at the AGM. They've had long enough now. Time to deliver or.... else!

Interesting increase in budget for BHP. $3bln ish might buy ENSA but they'll need another $4bln to build it. Still... that can come out of 2025 budgets as likely the block cave shaft works would take up the first 18months of development.

Sizable increase in spend and comes on top of the recent $6bln ish splashed out on Oz Minerals. Mmm!