Member Info for Fortissimo

Addicknt, inflation issues and spike in interest rates kicked off in full metal jacket mode from September last year. So I think it's fair to say that in that kind of climate it's hard ... very hard to discuss asset sales that require capex of $3bln or more. A new downsized (halved) PFS projected for Q1 will have to take fixed prices on rates, spot metal prices etc etc. It's likely they will use US inflation index or industry standard which means it might be close to or good number to use in PFS and still get a nice IRR number. They need the number above 20%. So bit of a waiting game imho as absolutely no point at all releasing a PFS with temporary high inflation numbers embedded.

He seemed pretty excited at the downscaled PFS so perhaps that looks alot better than many think based on a $1bln capex.

In simple terms... will it be closer to a 30% of previous PFS? Or more likely 25%? So possibly 0.5Mt of copper, 1Moz of gold and 5Moz of silver over 5 years with profits kicking in as early as year 3 if assuming some cash deployed to do block cave investigations or prep for phase 2? These days it's all about 'instant' results and long term high capex projects are resisted more today than ever. Lets face it the market is pricing us to do very little over the next 3 to 4 years. If suddenly we are talking about a phase 1 build and export commencing in 2025 (end) then that might kick start all kinds of rerates and possibilities and of course... kick off a bid war. The latter seems key to me. SOLG have to get themselves into a position whereby a super majors feels it's time to step in and nip it all in the bud or fear losing the opportunity it entirely.

The phase 1 (smaller scale) plans opens doors to more investors/partners. Opens doors to easier funding options (even Franco, Mitsui, Valuestone et al will be possible if seeking funding in a $1bln mine build. It also opens doors to debt finance etc etc. I guess the super majors will only move when they feel threatened of when they feel SOLG is moving out of the obvious dark corner that they are currently being pushed into as the clock ticks down and there's zero chance of funding a $3bln mine without giving away significant equity.

What market cap would you expect from a business doing 0.5Mt of copper, 1Moz of gold and 5Moz of silver over 5 to 7 years

with clear route to phase 2 and rinse and repeat of the same model another 2 or 3 times. More than possible to get to the full 3Mt of copper or higher, 8Moz of gold+ and 21Moz silver+ over 3 or 4 phases or approx 25 years.

I'll let others run the numbers. But Scott is clearly excited at that and I can understand why. It makes sense.

I did like the last bit... reads a bit like... I need BHP's and Newmonts votes at the upcoming AGM or i'm toast so I'm getting cosy again with them to save my bacon. Problem is, they know I am buddies with bob and they are keen to stick his baseball bat some place where the sun doesn't shine.

If it's personal (and I think it is) there's no way BHP are going to vote for Scott unless of course he makes them a promise they can't refuse. Mmm.

DBW... yes but as I said... interested to know how Scott arrives at $28m for the CGP shares when actual value or net proceeds will be determined by the price they place or sell them.

Overall, I was fairly happy with the presentation but did chuckle at the pondering over Porvenir asset. Seriously... Scott.. it's plain and clar to all involved that Porvenir is actually the best asset to take forwards if doing a small mine / low capex plan. There's plenty of infrastructure down in the South and the chinese are already keen on it. I suspect he's playing this down for a reason and that reason is that it will likely go to chinese as a freebie if or when they announce a deal on Alpala.

They are effectively taking a tier 1 mine asset and mining it like a 3m resources mine. Well... you've got one of those already Scott... it's called Porvenir.

Lots of greenlines copperpot. The key is to use the filter and then there is zero disruption.

FWIIW, I thought presentation was pretty good considering he was unable to say anything that would be market sensitive as that requires an RNS before hand. So not surprising to see him tip toeing a bit around some points. What can he say??? What can't he say??? Not easy when SOLG are clearly in discussions with multiple parties and all are on NDA's.

The key to this presentation was to get the message out there that one of the world's finest Tier 1 discoveries is in derisking mode and getting better with every derisking event that happens. I suspect the message that a smaller scale phased approach will please some out there that were previously not in the running due to teh capex of $3bln being out of their pocket depth. So get the phased approach to $1bln to $1.5bln range and you suddenly get a whole load more interested parties.

The Time schedule of 3.30pm GMT to Denver US time not ideal as that's breakfast territory. I think he was a bit miffed at that but sure he realised that it was the global audience watching (millions) that mattered most rather than those in the room!

I think he'll be delivering an exciting exploration plan for the regionals soon as without that... the AGM is going to feel like a spagetti western. He needs a rabbit out of the hat and I reckon he has a few he can pull out.

The blockcave example he gave and that they are going to follow is based on the template that BHP are applying to OZ Minerals asset. So that certainly gets the mind going doesn't it? So they are following BHP's stratgey on blockcave mining now?? Mmm?

One thing Scott said that does need addressing is this constant reference to CGP shares but not as 100m shares, instead he refers to them in capital terms eg dollars. He said they have $28m worth of shares at hand unless I misheard??

It's not the first time he has referred to the CGP shares in dollar terms. So has he already got a preagreed buyer for them and that's how he arrives at his $28m? That's roughly 22p a share. 50% higher than today's price.

The reality of building a mine starts to hit home. The talk of millions of resources in gold and copper is replaced with boring details like Tailings, DAM, pipelines etc. But this is the reality. This is what decides whether Alpala gets built or not. And as you say Gino, SOLG are seeking to derisk those key elements. So the talk of using the old railyway line (or under it) for the pipeline is very interesting. The importance of the test drilling on the area for tailings/Dam is cruicial as far as I can see. Scott seemed to suggest that this site that they have identified is the ONLY site possible. These key questions are clearly being asked by interested parties / buyers and SOLG are gradually ticking off their request boxes. But end of the day... at somepoint SOLG has to hand over (monetise) the asset as we can't contiune to derisk the project forever. If buyers or partners want in, then they'll have to bear soem of the risk if they want a discounted deal. Equally... if SOLG want a fair price or premium then they really do have deliver guarantees on DAM sites and pipelines etc. It feels like slow progress but ironically testing the only site available for the DAM/Tailings should have been done long ago imho. Why wasn't it done Darryl?? I think shareholders should be seeking damages from him rather than the other way around!

Sounds like it's being tailored to an interested party imho. The lower capex and phased approach is a 'chinese template' to mining lol!

CRCC-Tongguan style!

As the clock ticks down, all super majors watching (and Nationals like Chinese) will want to get a jog on.

Maxit and Bob know that they don't necessarily have to land a knock out deal... all they need to do is put an interested party like BHP or Newmont or another in a position that they start to feel a little niggle and need to act. Another royalty deal may well be required ... not because we need the money ... but because we need to pi55 off an interested party in a manner that leaves them no choice but to act... with a bid or watch the asset slowly drift away from them.

I'll say it again... name me 1 low cost copper/gold tier 1 mine out there that is 100% owned and effectively up for sale?? Know any?

Alpala is truly one go the greats. One of if not THE Best discovery in last decade. And that's a fact. And ironically, Porvenir is also one of the best discoveries in last decade too albeit toward the lower scale.

Dinnermoney, it's not one instance... it's many. Wood Group was 100p before Apollo offered them 220p and then 240p a share. And that's a £1.5bln company or was so not small fry jump. One day the Market valued Wood Group at 100p, the next it was 220p. And you think the market is a good valuation tool? About time you and others stop presenting share prices as they are today as being anything close to what takeover or asset sales are done at. It simply isn't true. The monetisation events happen based on asset worth and the SP follows that.

I think you'll just have to accept that markets and share prices often bear no resemblance to asset value worth at all. In the old days it was acceptable for FTSE250 or 100 businesses to see a 30% premium to closing share price based on an offer. Those days have gone and this woeful market is looking incapable of valuing anything properly and iI'm afraid to say it but LSE is losing reputation and big money companies are listing on other indices that know how to value companies properly.

Dinnermoney, your opinion that they could get it for £16m is ridiculous. I think you'll find BHP would need to pay £100m or more to bag DGR.

Mather wouldn't budge for less than that.

Likely he meant 'in the same boat or on same terms' rather than on 'same side' and 'pulling together' and it was in the context of CGP merger. Lets face it, the CGP boys were sitting on 15% and 6% share stake in SOLG and about $150m or more of direct past costs on the debt sheet owed to SOLG albeit when production rolls in. But the fact is... the CGP boys have feathered their caps at 17p, gained huge bonus shares (Scott). And are in the driving seat. Prior to that, they were staring at being choked into dilution oblivion. So yes... Bob and co might see it now as they are all pulling together ... spoken like a true businessman that got his own way.

Now it's time for them to deliver or else the AGM will not be pretty and I think Scott will be toast if his numbers are anywhere near what Mathers were when he finally got the shove.

I think there will be promises and clear path to exploration plans on regionals before the AGM as I reckon they'll use that to try and save some face ... oh and a good reason to issue themselves or their buddies some cheap shares.

Bozi,

Is there anything that SOLG has done well that you haven't attempted to turn into a puddle of pooooo? Seriously... you about as negative as you can get. Sort yourself out... either you want to believe or your don't or you just rather be negative.

The Ecuador Gov would not have signed the exploitation agreement with serious commitments from SOLG. Anyone who knows their marbles / mining industry would tell you that.

I don't disagree with some of your negativity as some is valid. But it's the fact that you fail to recognise the 'good' events that basically exposes you as a non shareholder imho. I don't think you are invested here at all.

Well, Noront example proves you wrong and that's a fact. If you can provide a fact showing lower sp results in lower asset offer price then go ahead. But at the moment, I think it's you that is searching for some credibility. I don't think there's much you can say to gain some unfortunately! ATB.

I meant 25p today not 225p. That would be nice though!

Bozi, what's the share price got to do with it? The asset is what the interested parties will be buying.

You've learned from Noront and others that share prices are irrelevant until first bid arrives.

Are you saying if SOLG were 225p today that 60p+ would be more likely than if SOLG are 15p today?

That's nonsense.

Everyday that passes is indeed a lost revenue day for ENSA as Ecuador gov signed (as you say) the exploitation agreement. That said, I genuinely think if a super major took Alpala on they would just rip up the SOLG PFS and start again, represent to Ecuador gov, reneg new terms blah blah blah. It helps thus far in so much that it draws a baseline under the asset as current agreement honoured etc.

Someone like Rio or BHP or FMG would want to see double the output that SOLG have factored into the PFS. They have the cash pile to make that happen. SOLG don't. But either way... all interested parties will want a phased approach as that gives them the mileage to manage risk and costs, derisk and supplement any infrastructure spend around the region with other bolt on sites like Tandy and others.

As for raising more funds... unfortunately I believe that suits Maxit and Irwin and others as they will have no shame in issuing those 100m CGP shares to themselves or their buddies at 17p again or lower. But let's face it... 100m shares is small fry anyway based on 3bln in issue and £17m would likely see out another 6 months imho. We'd have posters citing 'placing coming' abut now or over the next few months had we burned through £20m in cash on exploration. Hence the reason for 'parking' exploration until ENSA deal done.

Might be a coincidence but see Osisko involved with Cornish metals. I wonder whether Cornish Metals are paying Fawzi $450k per year?? My guess is he'll be lucky to get 25% of that. How the mighty have fallen.

Eloro,

Scot can't say anything that is not already out in the market via updates or presentation. Any new information has to take route of RNS is deemed necessary or price sensitive etc. So just because the telcon tells you nothing new does not mean that there are not lots of things going on in background. It's clearly sensitive stuff and with Ecuador elections and NCM/Newmont deal both concluding in October, I think these outcomes have some effect and as such are a drag on events.

That said... no one can ignore or contest that the last 12months have been nothing but a bore. Key red tape events signed by Ecuador gov are welcome and precursor to bids or deals and the ink is still drying on the last one signed.

If Scott and co do not deliver anything meaningful pre AGM then I think it's quite possible BHP & Newmont will be able to stir up some anti BoD's stuff.

Of course you did. So you informed us all you had sold out and departed and then you re-enter on the sly and tell everyone after the event. You are a fine fellow.

I thought you won't coming back to SOLG as nothing happening here until end of the year?? So what changed then? You got bored of watching paint dry on GGP?

I think you'll find Wyloo are very much related to FMG.

SharketMare,

The company you say I know nothing about was 35p+ when I said it was overvalued and worth 13p. I got banned for that insight. Isn't LSE great! lol! I then called the stock overvalued at 13p and 7p next. Right a second time. I'm now telling you that I don't think it is looking very good for GGP and that FMG are not you friends by any means. So let's see whether I am proved right for a 3rd time then? And you think I don't know anything about GGP's value lol! Mmm... I've been in this game for years... I know what's cheap and I know what's overvalued. It's up to you if you want to listen or not. It's just my opinion after all. Ignore it if you like. How's your investment in GGP working out since you sold out of SOLG??