Member Info for Fortissimo

Email him back and ask how P.akistan is getting through his filters lol!

The mining industry is smaller than many think but great to see Barrick CEO having the time to email back a pi. Some might say... he almost wanted to email back and say he's not interested. Mmm. I like that. And what happens if your filters get adjusted (as they do) Mark? Plenty of wriggle room for him there.

SOLG has it all. The idea that SOLG asset are unwanted or a burden is ridiculous. There is no distress or concern when selling these assets. But there are red tape hurdles to be cleared before any miner would want to take the risk. These are being ticked off gradually. These are the highlights as a reminder:

1. Best metal mix / basket you can hope for with copper, gold, silver and number of other crucial metals all in great grades. This gives any major miner options due to exposure to all kinds of metal pricing and market shortages.

2. The infrastructure is already there. Pipeline route simple using old train line route.

3. Location... it's great for exports to China. Cheaper to get it there.

4. SOLG has largest acreage / licence block holdings in Ecuador.. second to FMG I believe. Almost impossible right now to get hold of new licence blocks in Ecuador so SOLG is the ONLY player out there that is affordable to super majors. They can buy FMG ... but that's super major on super major stuff. That's not a 'new country' entry ... it's broad based acquisition. Whereas any purchase of SOLG is specifically a 'new country entry' and Majors like that.

5. There could many Alpala's out there across SOLG's folio. Ironically, a super major may prefer to go-slow on Alpala development eg early phase high grade low risk ops while they drill baby drill across the rest of the folio hoping to discover another Alpala but one that is easier to mine... lesser of the more risky block cave element.

6. All assets and licence blocks are 100% owned. Almost unheard of these days. That's perfect for super majors. They don't like fragmented licence blocks with partner that are not of their choice of hangers on'ers vis free rides to production.

The list goes on... SOLG is in great shape. Assets are great. There are plenty of majors interested. No doubt about that. Why wouldn't they be interested??

Well for balance .. here are some sticking points:

1. Ecuador politics and country as a whole is less proven than other mining nations like Chile, Peru etc. So it's early stage stuff and tax laws along with other key business terms need to be finalised. Remember, the likes of Brazil and Peru, Chile etc have increased tax charges on some mines/exports

2. Block cave element of Alpala is risky and can be capex intensive. BHP has similar issue with OZ Minerals but seems to have devised a solution which SOLG are now mirroring into Alpala... no coincidence there... the industry often learns from one another. But the fact is... BHP already has the solution for Alpala. Mmm.

3. Rest of folio / licence blocks may never get drilled due to permit and eco issues. That's a risk. But some blocks are already cleared and not in disputed areas.

4. Inflation/costs. The asset requires significant capex and time to deliver production.

It will get sold when Maxit are ready.

Maxit have flogged a few assets so I guess 'form' exists there for posters to research. As some have pointed out already, I think Maxit advised Noront Resources. They advised guyana goldfields and common denominator there is the Chinese who bought it out but only after someone else made the first move. Was there a whiff or sniff or hint of a takeover on Noront or Guyana Goldfields? If not, then surely they are classic examples of Maxit's ability to get deals done in a manner that leaves posters like Anon and others all thinking nothing is happening or in the offering.

Scott already has a bucket load of options at 17p so you could say... why would he want to buy anymore? Yes it sends a signal to the market and helps with sentiment but perhaps the real reason is simple... he knows 10p is a bargain. Lets face it he clearly thought 17p was a bargain too otherwise he would have had options granted in the 14's. or better.

The signs are there for those that want to see them and not there for those keen to avoid them.

The share price has already tanked. Considering Porvenir and how elusive Ecuador mining acerage is... I'd say £300m barely covers everything on the books and that's without ENSA.

Porvenir is amongst one the top ten of discoveries in copper/gold over last ten years.

Someone always bids... stick a Breitling Watch on Ebay and list it at £100 with known value of £10k. You think it will just sit there and go for £100? Eventually market forces come into play and 'value' wins out. So someone will bid... just a question of when and how much they bid... but with 6% holding in SOLG, the Chinese stand to own a few quid by at the very least trying a low ball offer. Worst thing can happen? They get beaten by BHP or another and walk away with a nice tidy sum on their 6% holding. I can't see them being involved in SOLG for just that 6% holding gain. They are here for a reason Sharemarket... it's not be the socials.

Where's Mather's director buy then?

Come on Nick... everybit counts. You can't just sit back and enjoy those freebie optiosn you awarded yourself. Get your hand in your pocket and show some support... unless of course... you can't as you'll be insider trading? Mmm. Anything going on with DGR then?

Yes... pretty much everything has to be concluded by Q1 and dare I say it... early to mid Q1. I think some expect March 31st as likely being at very end of Q1. But half yearly report usually posted mid February is a key date as they'll likely need to prove they have 12months finance in place to get that signed off on a forward looking basis. And even SOLG can't kick that RNS down the road. Cash balance likely to be $15m level (half what it is now). $3m to $4m burn per month looks likely.

Chinese new year start Feb 9th and lasts 7 days although sometimes longer. So Mid Feb onwards... chinese back at desks, half yearly report due... SR likely and probably 100m CGP shares placed back into old CGP hands lol! At today's prices, that buys a couple of months and that's not going please auditors.

So once elections out of the way this weekend... Scott and Co have AGM coming up on them in just over 9 weeks. HY results loom 6 to 7 weeks after that and 1 to 2 weeks of that is seasonal/festive holidays.

Tick tock Scott. You had bags of time.... now you have very little time.

Eloro, I think theiceberg sold mid 30's and he did so because he didn't like the way it was going and expected a sale earlier. Hinsight is a wonderful thing and looking back now of course many of us wish we had done the same. Problem is... turn back the clock and sell in the mid 30's and you know what happens... bid war follows and you're left on the sidelines watching the sp go past 80p+. That was the heightened sentiment at the time. Regardless of the share price right now, I'd say we are closer to a monetisation event than ever before. It simply has to happen over the next 6 months otherwise SOLG are staring at a serious cash issue and I'm not sure a royalty option will be achieveable again. I think that's why CGP boys stopped all exploration and cash burn on this year. They wanted enough cash to last through to June 2024. So imho they know or knew the date that they wanted to get this done and dusted by and that's the date they are working to. Whether that comes earlier or bang on the cusp... eg nice excuse to place those 100m shares with maxit or mates for some -tie-me-over- funds while deal completes cough cough.

I think they'll need to announce something before the AGM... just a hunch but based on DEC 22nd AGM date (not confirmed yet) then it's only 13 weeks there on till Q2. And that leaves just 11 weeks or so cash left. Any deal will take at least 6 months to fully complete before shareholders get payout although shareprice should align to offer price at some point give or take 5%.

Welcome back theIceberg. You did well exiting in the mid 30's I think you said. I think most of us would have liked to have exited there and bought back at 10p so lucky you. That said, I can see you didn't do too well on XTR and PANR so hope you didn't go from the frying pan into the fire. Once of the toughest things to do in the markets or investng is selling up, banking the cash and then ignoring the lure and opportunities of other stocks. The market has a way of 'getting' you back when you've made a quid or two out of it.

Good to see you back. I think you'll make a few bob from a 10p entry level. Reward for your patience.

Lets hope they are as good with their exit price as they appear to be with their entry price.

They may haved picked their own bottom. Yuck.

I think there are quite a few bigger players awaiting the winner of the run offs. It's not just a question of who wins as we know both are pro mining. It's more about how Ecuador comes out of it. For instance, if Correa's canidate loses, will it be accpeted and peaceful or will Correa's posse do a Donald Trump? I guess what most are keen for is a smooth transition from Lasso to the new man or lady. Furthermore, the assembly seats are crucial so any majority for either candidate has to be represented in assembly too if they are to lead with power. That all said, the reality is the winner will have just 18 monoths to prove themselves and win over future voters as Ecuador goes into elections again in early 2025. I don't think the latter will concern any buyers as exampled by the Chinese who have seen multiple presidents and governments in their time with Mirador.

So, in around 5 to 6 days we should have another major risk hurdle jumped. If the sp is around 10p levels next week then we really are open season to low balls. The risks keep diminishing yet the sp remains low. This becomes more attractive to buyers and would be partners.

Put yourself in BHP's shoes... which of the following would you do?

1. Wait until SOLG reveals PFS update in Q1 2023 and then make a move or just sit it out further awaiting someone else to make first move. This runs risk of a recovering share price and better sentiment into Q1 24.

2. Try and strike when SOLG is at it's weakest/ poor sentiment going into the AGM period. Eg... post elections...sometime in early November table a low ball offer and cite weak management, unclear direction and the usual... presenting shareholders with an offer that gives premium but also an exit from company in distress with limited funds etc etc

3. Try and create instability with shareholders and management and seek to get directors removed / resolutions voted down at AGM (they tried and failed to some extent when they last took this route).

Putting BHP aside, any other interested party must surely be thinking there is a window of opportunity right now to make a bid but obviously having election risk out of the way makes sense. We know Ecuador gov are keen to see Cascabel moving faster so I don't think SOLG are better placed than a Super major to get the remaining permits/red tape signed off. That's nonsense. I think Ecuador gov would take any steps that a super major asks of them especially if they are looking to cement their presidency ahead of Feb 2025.

Mmm.

Over to the derampers to offer up loads of negatives to everything.

Shussss novice... you'll have orphern doom reeper copper posting all day.

Hats off to the derampers and bashers... it's been a heavily weighted first half and I'd say they are leading 3-0 at the moment. Can Scott, Bob and Maxit deliver a Stevie Gerrard type second half... and secure the trophy for the bulls?

Talk across markets of Chinese about to kick off stimulus plans. This usually results in similar actions across EU/UK and US. So potentially light at end of tunnel as risk assets usually do very well in stimulated markets. Still some way to go but if rate hikes are almost done, then market will be forward thinking and start pricing in H2 24 into H1 24. And that bodes well for SOLG as we need lower interest rates and lower inflation to make the PFS shine and even then buyers will be looking toward better times ahead so likely to strike a bid in Q1 rather than wait for a better recovered SOLG in H2.

I should add, I am unsure of the dynamic between BHP and Newmont. Quite a few aussie firms don't like BHP very much so you never know... there might be an aussie ego thing to add to the mix. Newmont might well turn out to have sticky shares if it means BHP has to pay alot more. Remember Twiggy and the way he knocked BHP out of the Noront game and sent them packing.

Addicknt, if you use your common sense then I think you'll soon get to a more plausible conclusion re Newmont. Firstly, there's quite a few folk out there all saying a sale within the next 6 months. And if there is not a sale ... then there is surely a fund raiser. Both of those events potentially give Newmont an exit or a larger entry. I don't think they'll be in any rush. They have significant interests still their gold prepay credit facility on Fruta del Norte of which I think Lundin has already paid a 3rd off. They have other interests in Ecuador and on the whole, I'd Say SOLG is minor compared to their other stuff.

I think they are more likely to sit on SOLG holding and await the Q1/Q2 24 before making a move. If they were offered 45p a share I think they'd sell out. They wouldn't be able to sell out 300m shares in the open market without it taking at least 8 months+. I think when Blackrock exited, they ditched a 5% interest and it took well over 6 months to get through open market and even then I think that was with help of Chinese taking 1%+ of that.

Newcrest will be like the rest of to some extent in that it may as well wait until Q1 24 and see what Bob / Maxit deliver on deals. Then again, it might just be a case of them taking a call and provisionally pledging their shares to BHP so their acquisitions team can plan in advance??

I called for the directors to stick their hand in their pockets last week and they have delivered although expected Mather to chip in as well. It's a message that will be heard more across the fund managers network and other investment platforms rather than pi's. The pro's like to see management using their own cash as a true indicator of confidence. Rarely do you see directors stick hands in pockets these days. And if you meet a fund manager, he or she will tell you thatb they are happy playing around with other peoples money but certainly not their own!

I'm happy with directors buying stock but lets face it... it's down here in the bargain basement levels due to their slow progress on a number of fronts. Can't place the blame on them completely as market has deteriorated through 2023 as inflation lingers and rates look higher for longer.

Elections conclude on Sunday, so with that out of the way, we might start to see some volume return to solg via the likes of the Chinese and others who appear to be sitting on their hands awaiting Sunday's result.

Management could have done the same but clearly elected to get stuck in last week. A vote for confidence for Ecuadorian elections?

Today, we got a glimpse of Scott/Bob/Maxit fighting back a bit against what looks like someone trying to squeeze SOLG.

Games a foot imho. I'm expecting Maxit/Bob to deliver something pre-AGM. Might be regionals or might be something else. I'm just hoping it's not something pony like the CGP regionals which won't get much of an eyebrow raised from the market even though some prospects look alright.

Something is imminent as someone somewhere is trying their best to trigger stop losses or a run into the 8's.

Seriously... what was that very unusyal UT at 3.25pm about today??

38189 UT spread 9.82 / 9.92 time 15:25:19 and UT was 9.5p???

Why the low print when spread was 9.82/9.92? Pure manipulation and just 15 mins later we get RNS on director buys.

Someone somewhere is trying to sucker in sellers and that UT pretty much proves. Why would you even need a UT for that pony low volume block in first place?? Why at 9.5p?

This market is embarrasing.

No director buys from Mather then?? Anyone heard from him? You'd think he would be dipping in his pockets too?

Perhaps he'll do so but via DGR via equity raise on DGR?? Another cheap way to line his pockets.

Something bit fishy going on... anyone else think a low ball is landing soon?

Now the directors have had their cheap fill, perhaps the chinese get the green light to buy it big at these levels?? Maxit... it's now time to see how good you really are as SOLG are under attack and market is looking weaker by the day.

I siad a while ago that I was surprised the Chinese had not added to their holding considering the fact that they loaded up in the open market with price in the 16's and 17's.

So either they like the fact the price is falling or they are a contributing factor (eg selling a few) or both or they are just waiting patiently? If they have had a change of mind over the asset, it would still make sense for them to bid for it knowing that a low ball would likely be countered by BHP or another. I thought that was why they took the 6% equity slice in the first place.

Director buys welcome, but what we really need is Chinese to be buying 20m or 30m shares and keep whoever is trying to push us down at bay. But then perhaps that doesn't suit their plans either?

SOLG feels like it's under attack. Directors know it. Only downside to directors buying is that there MUST NOT be any major news due or negotiations underway as that would prevent them from doing so... but the lines are a little loose around that area and easy to blur when required so not too worried about that.