Member Info for Fortissimo

Ortherncopper, there is talk of China kicking off a stimulus plan which as you know will be very good for risk assets. Last time China kicked off stimulus, the markets, especially commodities did very well.

China's economy is forecast to grow better than expected according to many media / banks views. They are still knocking out 5% growth when likes of UK are doing close to zero. Many experienced market followers are pointing to Indian as their growth rates accelerates.

What markets need right now is 'stimulus' simply because that's what they are used to. High rates and inflation giving many a headache. And the frightening thing... most interest rate rises are not felt properly by the 'little guy' until at least 10 months after the hike. There's millions of property owners set to exit fixed rate (2% or below deals) next year. China are usuallu ahead of the curve not behind it. So we might see BoE reverting to rates cuts pretty soon lol!

Well, the Chinese were buying heavily in open market at 17p/18p levels earlier this year and then appeared to stop when Lasso stepped down and elections kicked off. Might be for another reason as obviously a share price in the low 10's suits them nicely... but you'd think they would be buyers at this level. So perhaps with elections sorted now, they will begin buying again... I guess it's a tricky one for them as they don't want boost the price too much if agreeing a bid / deal in future but equally must know the stock is a bargain now and virtually half price compared to their original entry and that's not counting the 32p placing they did.

"Noboa is due to be sworn in on 25 November".

I think I recall someone saying that SOLG expected all the red tape to be sorted with Lasso government, so if true it looks like Nov 25th is the deadline for getting it all sorted.

So shoud expect all the red tape news in next 6 weeks. And then AGM likely 3 to 4 weeks after that. And any other news inbetween would be great Scott!

Considering Noboa is actually 'invested' in Llurimagua suggest he very much believes in mining in Ecuador. This result is the best possible result for SOLG imho. Not just for SOLG but for Ecuador too.

Another major hurdle and risk put to bed.

He'll have 18 months but pretty clear that this time will be spent like a pre election catwalk. So I would guess he will want to make an impact pretty fast. Bodes well.

Poll close at 11pm GMT or 5pm Ecuador time. Thus far... all has gone smoothly without disruption which is great news.

We'll likely know the winner in early hours.

Noboa was leading by a decent margin going into polls so unless amything has changed dramtaically... he should be the winner. That would mean Correa loses and might not bode well but he's exiled and I think Ecuadrian's prefer it that way. I guess we'll see soon.

Well done England.. for once in a long time..they actually turned up to a game. France or SA awaits.

Yes, both good for mining but we were greedy... and we are ... then we'd want a winner that has a good majority in the assembly so they can at the very least get key policies through. Lasso was a bit hamstrung due to Perez and co's seats in assembly from what I gather.

An outright winner with say 60% would better than 52% vs 48%!!!!

As long as democracy works and elections go smoothly (lets face it... they shoot politicians in South America) that said... we knife them and shoot them over here in blighty so not exactly white than white ourselves (joe Coxx, david amess) then all should be good come Monday. TA wise.. looks like a double bottom formed and a nice sought after 'w' recovery on the cards.

Certainly doesn't help. Is that directly relating to the October 3rd $600m award or to the Dec 22 award?

Newcrest's interests in Lundin as well as the Gold credit deal on Mirador etc along with SOLG holding and other licence blocks they hold means any exit from Ecuador by Newmont will likely involve Lundin and Codelco and chinese partners first. That's the usual platform for exits. In fact many partner deals entitle the partners to first dibs should one want to exit. So I suspect if Newmont decide to leave Ecuador... a large chunk of interest will go to 'incountry' partners. Also smoother for Gov sign off etc. SOLG is slightly outside the Codelco / Lundin players but they are all well aware of what SOLG have. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Codelco took on the 10%. That said... I think they would want a conclusion to the Llurimagua Mining Project first. Incidentally, did anyone else hear that ENAMI was looking to sell their stake in Llurimagua?

Should Llurimagua go ahead (needs to sort new environmental consultations etc) and should Alpala go ahead... Ecuador could have 2 mega Tier1 mines heading for production in next 3 to 5 years or sooner. That seriously puts them on the mining map and would please the IMF a great deal!

Things are changing and the super majors know it... if a saudi or uae outfit buy into a tier1 copper/gold asset the super majors games of squeezing the little guy are over. Even now the chinese are taking on mines right under their noses and they are too big and slow to react.. too focused on their filters.

The name you here these days when dealing with copper projects are chinese, japanese... and soon to be Saudi or UAE.

The entire sector is due a shake up in same way US shale changed the OPEC cartel's ability to dictate oil prices.

SOLG will most likely go to a Brazilian firm, Chile firm, japanese firm... chinese firm or possibly a canadian firm. But the super majors seem more interested in the lower tier consolidation pickings.. like the Newcrests etc.. spend $15bln or $20bln and get the instant production and ops rather than spend $10bln+ on new mines.

This is likley to lead to a shortage of metals in the future but that suits them to as prices then spike. Copper is the one metal that they all know is going to be in high demand. They all want it. So SOLG will do just fine.

Agree re MENA. The irony is, PFC were being discounted based on a view that they were less involved in MENA region than before due to ADNOC and others giving them cold shoulder after embarresment of SFO findings. So even though PFC has diversified and has some recent smaller MENA region wins of late... the market thinks it a good idea to hammer PFC down on MENA regional worries?? Weird... but reality is... sticky inflation and potentially fewer MENA awards means PFC might well be struggling through 2023 on a break even basis. Shorters will be wary of TU in mid Dec delivering confidence but any miss on the 'breakeven' forecast or heavily weighted cash flows to H2 and market will punish PFC.

Https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/world/americas/ecuador-election-daniel-noboa-bonita.html

There was talk in the media leak story some months ago about one possible interested party being Brazilian or Brazilian focused firm. I think Maxit has a few interested (well they should have considering how rare Tier1 mines are these days) but could really be as simple as all involved just want to see the Ecuador Gov elections concluded and... final red tape done and dusted. Nothing much that Maxit of SOLG can or could do about that as elections/debacle kicked off earlier this year. Noboa has already shown a significant interest in mining by investing into the Codelco and state run mine (ENAMI) called 'Llurimagua'. That's run into issues recently, so I suspect should Noboa get in... that mine should progress along with others.

Costs tend to rise faster in more developed regions so Oz ops likely to feel the pinch more than South American ops. Frightening to think that many have AISC's well over $1200oz (gold producers) and yet it wasn't that long ago PoG was averaging closer to $1100oz and AISC's were nearer averages of $600oz. Oil producers the same. Many seemed suddenly capable of dealing with Oil prices in the $30's and making neutral to minor losses. Yet oil hits $100pb and suddenly costs mysteriously rise. There's no doubt about it... alot of money has gone into shareholder pockets over the last 3 years. Star performer on the commods is Orange Juice. Up 95% yoy. The irony is, GAS prices are down 66% yoy yet you wouldn't know it looking at the Electricity prices today. The wholesale prices seem to take an eternity before they hit home with the consumer and by the time they do, every middle man along the way has taken his cut. If they can manage Gold Spot prices, then surely they can manage gas spot prices and the electricity companies can stomach the fluctuations with usual hedges. No reason why electricity prices should be as high as they are now. Apart from making sure the likes of EDF / EoN maintain their profits.

Apparently we all need to have more pylons because they can't line the shareholders pockets if they have to bury the cables! Sad world we live in on a corporate basis. Greed and profits all the way.

A glimpse of how some are doing YoY. Some will have had larger/smaller divi's etc so need to bear that in mind.

In the green

1. Southern Copper UP 20%!!

2. Grupo Mexico UP 12%

3. FMG UP 4.5%

Neutral

1. Rio (relatively unchanged at 0.5% down)

In the red

1. Newmont DOWN 21%!!

2. Vale DOWN 18%

3. Barrick Gold DOWN 14.6%

4. BHP DOWN 8.6%

5. Freeport DOWN 2%

A few others out there but hats off to FMG.

Some metals in higher demand etc so will skew performance but then that's what's it is all about... getting the right mix and balance to suit the demand. At the right cost. Some will have projects in advanced status and others will be scratching around. I think Barrick are certainly scratching around if they are looking at P.akistan.

Barrick are suffering. Whether that's due to their 'filters' who knows or just market woes but share price was $20 in May and hit lows of $14 in early october.

That's a huge fall for a multi-billion dollar company.

Sometimes filters get tweaked and other times CEO's get tweaked. As Newcrest's Sandeep 'Tiswas' Biswas found out.

The other obvious answer is to say nothing. Which most CEO's of multi billion dollar outfits would do. You'd think he should be a tad busy with his business to answer some email from someone that he knows nothing about etc.

I think it's quite revealing. But then... that's down to the individual.

DM,

"ADVANTAGEOUS LOCATION ACCESSING EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE"

Page 12 of September presentation.

Read it.

You seem a bit irritated these days and the nit picking feels a bit junior.

Simple but important message.

https://www.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/football/12981797/norwich-city-launch-powerful-video-on-world-mental-health-day

Email him back and ask how P.akistan is getting through his filters lol!