Member Info for Fortissimo

For reference

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26

Bonds pattern suggests a bounce at 57 which might align with a quity bounce around 43p. If bonds head for lows earlier in year then could see equity go sub 40p. Bonds at near half value is not a good sign at all so market either expects a big miss on the breakeven projected h2 or there's just broader weakness across main markets feeding into ftse 350 as trackers will just follow market trend.

3 million+ volume today

certainly a few out there adding while others sell or sit on hands.

Volume has calmed down somewhat since BSC sold out.

AT's still churning through larger blocks by looks of things. Bargain price indeed.

The cost cutting line is wearing thin. It's as if sacking people and reducing the company to near zero activity is to be applauded! It's being suggested that it's a great achievement.

Ermmm... well they've still spunked $55mln. Yes.. you heard that right. Not $5mln.... but $55m!!

So much for cost savings. The cash pile is now likely sub $30m. It was $85mln last year.

Maxit and Bob have done really well though... they've pocketed millions in fees. And you want to vote them back in?!

No company or BoD's would head into an AGM without delivering some significant news and hope to retain their seats.

It's self preservation time... so either Scott has decided to bend over for BHP and Newmont so they save his bacon or he's going to unleash some great news.

They've nothing for 12 months but still managed to burn through $50m+. Just how on earth have they done that? Where's the cash gone??

Scott is CEO so carry's the can but he's Maxit's man... and without him they are stuffed.

Would not surprise me one bit if we heard of a deal on the regionals soon with a household miner name.

Mmm.

They know they are heading toward a difficult AGM, so if they have nothing up their hats then we really are in serious trouble!

Addicknt,

If you add up the large holders, what % do you get to? I don't think you fully understand how many shares out there are in smaller or HNWI's hands. If the pi vote was so small... you wouldn't had Mather reaching out some years ago with his begging letter. If Newmont and BHP vote against Scott as well as a load of fed up pi's... then he's toast.

All he had to do was throw pi's a bone and give them a reason to him in. Instead he's done zilch. Apart from line his own pockets!

The question you should be asking Irwin (I noted your comms with him) is WHY hasn't he been buying at these low levels? If he believes in the asset and bob/scott etc then surely he'd be filling his boots at 8p levels? And before you say the volume is not there... erm... Berry Street just offloaded 1.5% into open market.

IRWIN doesn't look like he wants more SOLG stock at all. That's not a confidence booster is it? He might say... he has enough... but that's nonsense. What other investments out there offer him such a great opportunity??

So ask him... see what he says. He won't like the question one bit.

Would be nice if they can send out the resolutions and official AGM RNS so we can all get voting. Scott and Bob et all have given shareholders zero to rally behind when it comes to voting. So I think you'll be surprised at how many vote against them. Twigger might be the last man standing and charged with the task of finding new BoD's.

There's about 5 weeks left now.

I think the main problem at present is the bonds. These have been sold down to near 62. That's not a great confidence sign and any shorting of the equity might be as a pair trade or hedge on the bonds.

The bond selling has been quite hefty so either holders are thinking there's increasing risk with PFC or they simply anticipate a new bond raise which better terms / rate. So sell the bond now... take new bond out or just moving to better less risky bonds all round.

Eitherway, bond selling often results in some arbitrage trading hence equities under pressure.

I think ADNOC deals were also expected in H2 and these have either gone to competitors or not happened at all along with current outlook that MENA region not in great shape right now for obvious reasons.

Looks like they are back up and running. Bit of a leaky ship considering yesterday's 12%+ rise. Someone clearly knew what was coming today. Tut tut.

Agree, we won't be a priority near term for Newmont on the basis that we are not draining any cash nor diluting their holding ... at present (eg the asset is not deteriorating). So no rush and yes.. should something kick off soon that requires their attention... then they will act to protect position or simply offload it to interested parties.

Their 10% holding will be off importance come the AGM so I suspect they already have a view which they will communciate in 5 weeks time. As we all will Scotty boy!

Our new 10% holders of SOLG shares completed the Newcrest deal yesterday. So we officially have a new 10% holder.

Some media report citing that they will be selling some of the Newcrest assets which is understandable and par for the course with post acquisition deals. Question is... what are they going to do with the SOLG stake? They had an unsolicited approach in 2019 from Barrick so assumption there is that they don't like Barrick much... but do they get along with BHP?

Newmont were vulnerable to potential takeovers from BHP and Barrick so the newcrest deal helped them defend against these approaches. Newcrest was on the small side for a tier 1 wannabe but Newmont certainly has potential to be a super major now with the NCM purchase.

It seems like the rest of the world is a bit ignorant to what's coming with copper. Everyone knows the price is going to be much much higher yet bulk of majors have not made the switch or are slow in getting copper mines producing. Mad really. So no wonder it's the chinese that are the smartest out of all of them. quietly going about booking in key assets and resources ahead of a period of recovery. Recent LNG deal shows they are forward thinkers. While the bulk of Super majors look a bit big and heavy, slow to react and too scared about delivering the next dividend to shareholders.

SOLG is the answer to any Super majors need for copper, gold and silver. All on a plate. Not without risk granted. But even at 60p a share the risk is limited especially if the 60 odd licence blocks goes with a lock stock and barrel sale. There's plenty of ops across that resource folio to protect against any curve balls that Alpala might throw up in development. They might discover zero across these other blocks but highly unlikely considering the geology in the SA region.

SOLG will be sold. When.... is anyones guess. Most of us are tired of guessing... but Tier1 assets rarely remain on the shelf or in the minnows hands. Tick tock Scott.

Yes agree, for Noboa... the next 18 months will be like one stop election campaign for 2025 elections. Perhaps Correa's camp know they'll have sometime in this period to restock and finally get back in come next run off.

For Noboa... he might find the job at the top too much for him at 35 years old... or he might get a taste for it! Eitherway, it makes sense for him to make some decent progress and waves going forward as if he does very little... he's toast come next elections.

Bit like Scott... toast at the upcoming AGM unless he and Bob pulls a rabbit out of the hat. If they've flogged some licence blocks to Barrick, then the insider trading boys are going to be all over them after Barrick's recent comments.

So on that basis, can only assume Barrick have picked up some 'land' from ENAMI or another.

I seem to recall reading somewhere on the BB that Scott said he expected final red tape issues to be signed while under the Lasso Government?? Anyone confirm this?

The recent Barrick comments might also suggest that some mining issues are getting pen'd while Lasso is still there which makes sense. If assumption is correct and Lasso gets the paperwork signed, then we are looking at news any day now... leading up to the change of Government on November 25th when Noboa sworn in and takes control.

SOLG's AGM and Special meeting is planned for second week in Dec.

So Lasso leaves in just under 3 weeks and SOLG's AGM follows 2 to 3 weeks after that.

Tick tock Scott... something has to give in next 3 to 5 weeks.

Weird auction this morning

Something cooking

Thanks DBW, yes... lost in translation.. not the first time when it comes to portuguese or spanish media rewrites.

At end of the day... while the SR is still open and ongoing... everything is on the table.

5 green lines on your thread already... I was right then! You might have to repost it again on Monday morning. Enjoy your Sunday.

Based on below link, might be conclusion of early talks held last year. Rio apparently interested too. Haven't they listened to all the bashers fears over Ecuador? These super majors must be nuts!!

Remember, FMG and SOLG are the largest acerage holders in Ecuador.

https://www.ecuadortimes.net/ecuadors-mining-exports-could-grow-23-in-2022/

Cadestre is closed and it would take parlimentary approval to reopen it I believe so unlikely it has come from any new awards.

"secured a substantial land package" could simply be 'land'. No licence permits... nothing. But obviously with the view to gaining them in the future. Or it could mean they have acquired land from other operators.

Two thoughts... first is that Barrick are clearly interested in Ecuador. That's encouraging. Second... they seem to be moving with intent (note the term 'recently') suggests post elections. Bodes well.

Barrick are hardly going buy land in Ecuador for producing banana's but he clearly stops short of saying blocks, or licences or tenements.

Perhaps SOLG have agreed to sell some of the 60 licence blocks afteral? Remember, we had about 30 licence blocks at grass root level that were being 'packaged' for sale or jv's.

Great find DBW. Now watch the green line crew beeech their way through 100 posts in an effort to consign your post to page 3.

Worth a read. I wonder what Malcolm thinks of his new 12.5% partners? I wonder if he's interested in buying up the 12.5% stake as surely Scott should be looking at ditching these projects too if focusing purely on ENSA.

mmm.

https://www.sunstonemetals.com.au/site/pdf/ddfc61d9-63c8-4426-9bd5-01d765c42c0c/Limon-expanded-area-of-gold-mineralisation.pdf

Thanks Shipright, I recall DC mentioning that they were looking at targets in and around Solaris acerage. I think there was talk back then that Warintza might inevitably feed (geographically) into SOLG's block.

We've not heard a peep since CGP boys took over. Not heard much on Bramados (their baby albeit minor interest) either.