Member Info for Fortissimo

Paddy, it wasn't that long ago that a leading politician got shot dead for standing up to gangs. In the polls... safety and crime etc was the hghest point on all voters lists. Noboa vowed to get on top of it. One wonders whether Correa is behind the recent gang land disagreements as it helps his cause heading into next elections in 13 months time or via his proxy candidate.

I think shooting a politician is shocking. Gang men breaking into live TV stations also shocking but why do it? Either they are thick ... or they deliberately wanted to get maxmium PR... eg.. makes life more difficult for Noboa.

There's 'valuation' and then there's an entire provence country entry for a major with 50 years+ mileage in it or more. So at end of the day, valuation always a a good benchmark but guess we'll find out what the real value is when you see the first and the final winning bid.

If the Chinese think they can bang in a 56p offer and BHP et al will just say.. yeah... all yours. Then I think some will be surprised. BHP may well have moved on and no longer interested in SOLG.. or they could be gagging for it and just waiting for the starter gun.

One thing I am sure of is that Tier1 mines don't go for less than market benchmark rates with country risk factors thrown in etc etc. So with SOLG... the upside is all about how much someone wants the lot. How badly do they want it. 56p could soon be 76p or 96p if a few come out of the shadows after opening bid is tabled/

Got to start somewhere. They key is to getting those on the sidelines ... off the sidelines and a bid war happening. No one will make a move until someone or all sees someone else looking like getting it for a song.

I think final winning price will be in the 70's or 80's if BHP and Chinese go slug to slug.

DBW, out of interest, management will be working out the next round of remuneration and bonus shares and incentives etc for 2024. Do you think Scott and co should get more awards after last years huge hand outs?

Does read like a positive to me too as Noboa looks to be clearing the way for mining firms and clarifying laws. Like you say... this looks like fast tracking considering Noboa has only been in his new role for 4 weeks before knocking this out. Bodes well.

I wonder if that was the news that filtered through to market after the 20th and caused the near 40% spike in share price??

Looks like Noboa is keen on mining and wants the rev coming in too so you can bet he's keen to see Chinese or BHP or another pushing Alpala ahead rather than it doing zero in hands of SOLG management.

Tick tock Scott.

Well they have 160m shares already or 6% ish at an average close to 18p. It would be win win for them should they stick a bid in at 40p and then get beaten by BHP with 55p+ offer. They would make a cool 200% profit. But of course that's not quite the same scale as profits they would make from owning Alpala assuming it developed in risky savvy phases.

I thought the ecuadorian 'leak' a while back was a good indicator of where they think Cascabel is heading as they practically said they had signed it over to the chinese lol! Well... not quite... but Chinese are at the high table and very influential in Ecuador. Noboa would look very good if he signed a deal on a multi billion dollar mining investment in his short tenure. Something has to give as this can't drag on another year surely!?

BBG, as you know... I trust the asset... but not the management team. Fortunately, the asset is so fantastic that it means the latter can't even mess it up... even though they seem to be doing their best lol!

It's all about the asset. The idea of doing exploration again is appealing based on our assets/licence blocks and would certainly have helped this year filling the news voids.

I actually found the RNS's pre AGM very exciting which begs the question why Scott has done nothing with them for 12 months+ It only takes a minor $5m to $10m cash raise to see 20 holes+ drilled.

BBG, I know you are super supportive of current management but come on... the last few RNS's pre AGM were 1 to 2 years old. The exploration assays or rock chip samples were done when Darryl was CEO. Why it took Scott so long to issue them is a question itself. Scott told the markets that SOLG were not doing any exploration. You know this.

As for Turnkey, not all red tape has been signed as yet but agreed a significant part has now been signed. But I'm afraid, no project that involves blockcave mining can be 'turnkey' without delivering the data required to demonstrate feasibility such as mine shaft/elevator shaft tests and so on. They take about 2 years to sort out. After that... then you might be able to use the term 'Turnkey'.

Also worth highlighting that we own 100% ENSA compared to years passed where we had a disjointed 85% stake. Yes, 800m shares have been issused since, but 15% ENSA is worth a sizable wedge by itself. So just shows how ridiculously low the 7p level was. Management need to start 2024 with an objective on setting things straight so the market understands the SOLG story and that includes exploration plans etc etc. As without exploration... SOLG is not an explorer. We're not a developer for sure. So what are we? We need to move a taxi off the rank and the sooner the better. Then the market will believe.

SP reached 41p on last PFS. On a dilution basis that's around 30p now but as mentioned above you need to account for the 15% ENSA gained too. So prob more like 35p target based on previous share trading patterns. But of course... different market right now although ironically... Gold price at all time highs and PM's in general in high demand. Get your head around that one then!?

I think it's more down to the reduction in tax selling or larger shareholders being cleared. The irony in these markets is that buyers appear interested now at 11p levels but were disinterested when we were at 7p levels. Mind boggling.

As you say, volume does seem robust for this time of year. Usually you'd expect weak trading between xmas and and new years as most away from trading desks etc.

There is PFS news due anytime between Jan 2nd and Feb 15th. Guaranteed by Scott.

So traders/buyers might fancy getting involved early doors and riding the potential upward curve into that news event.

Personally, I don't think the PFS news will be anything special but it does act as a catalyst for those in the data room to get a little more nervy as more potential partners can enter the ring with lower capex budgets.

Will be interesting to see if there are any large orders printed after close. Stark difference today of buyers buying... and smaller traders selling and taking profits not denting the sp desire to head higher.

Bodes well if the larger seller that has suppressed the price for last few months is cleared. Could that be the Norges exit before year end?

Main heavy selling started around 16p so in theory sp could get back to 16p levels on buyers interest and absent 'large' sellers. The latter really do sway the book. That said, as someone posted earlier... might be shorters involved too as that can give fast snap backs in oversold shares. PFC was 50p+ a few weeks ago and got hit by short attack which saw it test 14p! In last week, it's back to 40p today. Crazy markets!

Probably tipped in a few new year lists... so the journo's just buying up some stock before release lol!

Looks like seller might have been cleared or our chinese friends are out of due diligence period and free to buy up stock as they please.

Decent volume for SOLG based on a festive period. Usually lucky to tip over the 1m volume mark on thinly traded market days.

Can't be long before some whispers and rumours start circulating... I'll start with... did anyone here about FMG sniffiong around SOLG's blocks? Ho ho ho.

Well, look on bright side... surely it can only get better in 2024!

Still a few days left of the trading year to see if we can knock out another multi year low.

Then we have extended Chinese new year from 10th of Feb to Feb 24th. So our potential buyers might be looking to pitch offers in March. PFS due before Feb 14th based on Scott's last update. So at worst... 7 dull weeks ahead or will they be exciting? MMm.

Happy Xmas to all.

Newmont clearly voted if you ask me. Those 638m votes seem suspciously close to teh total of Newmont and BHP combined.

mmm.... so Newmont don't like Mather either then. Nor do they like they idea of SOLG issuing shares to another party.

That's actually encourageing if true as shows Newmont really do a give a shiiit. Mmm. And why wouldn't they? SOLG could make them more money than the entire acquisition of Newcrest over time.

Doesn't seem like the normal AT's in play today. I wonder if the outfit responsible for suppressing the SP has decided that it's job done assuming a low sp pre AGMvote was the goal?

UK CPI numbers have got a few tongues going. We could be in for a risk on asset bull run in Q1 if rates cuts start getting telegraphed as early as Feb.

If I were the chinese and having done enough due diligence... I really would be thinking of making a bid in near future vs a market in full recovery, rates and all.

Just wondering where they got the 18% stake from as not listed under shareholders.

They might have 5%+ from Shanta management team but where did the other 13% come from?? I wonder whether they picked all the stock up off ODEY when thye were forced seller for 9p?

If that's the case, then makes me think this is defo a 'draw out' bid to see what the chinese come in with.

The market is a poor one when it allows the shorters to 'short' in open market yet allows them to close out in private (aka auction process).

So they can play the liquidity (or poor liquidity) on the downside but on the upside... they remove the liquidity issue by allow auction.

LSE Markets are terrible these days. No wonder most are going to NYSE or DOW or Bourses.

Seen it so many times over the years... as soon as a company comes out of tough times and starts to look like delivering great numbers... someone picks them them off.

Shocking as the markets of today are so woeful at valuations that they create dire situations rather than doing what they should be doing and that is forward looking and pricing in future performance. Shanta looks in fine shape for an amazing 2024.

If then chinese don't step in and counter bid I would be very surprised. They may as well offer 14p for starters. This poor offer has to be by design to draw out better offers.

Just a hunch but I reckon this is an offer designed to draw out a counter offer by the Chinese businesses mentioned in the earlier bid talks.

It's too pony an offer to have credibility so by design looks set to attract counter offers. They've set the ball rolling imho.

I'm not a holder here but wish all the best. A counter offer nearer 16.5p to 18p levels could win through.

I think the amazing thing here is the tiing of the second TenneT deal. The first TenneT deal (and broader context RNS) saved the business 6 months ago and burned shorters in the run from 40p to 80p.

The same could be said again. Yes it's just $1.4bln in terms of headline rather than $14bln...but the timing will send shock waves through the shorters/hedge funds. What it shows is that Hitachi and TenneT are clearly very supportive of PFC and NEED PFC to prevail. This is confirmation imho of a very special relationship... one that the shorters got impailed on the first time around and likely to be spit roasted this time too.