Member Info for Fortissimo

Addicknt, the deadline is not end of Q1. It's 'EARLY Q1' as quoted by the last RNS released by Scott and co. As below:

From Dec RNS

" Phased Approach Pre-Feasibility Study Progressing Well

- Expected to be released early in the first quarter of 2024"

The PFS is due in the next 23 days. Scott has already said in RNS form that it will be released in 'early Q1' so this update would have needed to 'correct' that previous RNS if anything had changed. So the fact it says 'nears completion' suggests that all is on track as guided.

Feb 14th looms and Scott will be hoping his new PFS brings some love back for SOLG again.

Apart from that... it's business as usual.

I wouldn't worry about metal prices or inflation as any partner or buyer will simply look past that especially when every cat and dog out there is calling for Copper to do cartwheels higher in next few years.

What matters most is that the phase 1 (new PFS) is viable for smaller pocketed players thus opening the door to more parties and making life more uncomfortable for the Super majors on the sidelines or chinese etc. It's simply a method to extract a bid or strengthen ones poker hand. At the moment... A $3bln capex is beyond SOLG and anyone that isn't chinese gov or a super major.

The key exercise here is to show a nice juicey low hanging fruit phase 1 development opportunity. FWIIW... this is straight out of the chinese M&A copy book as they like to do things on smaller scale but with fast return etc. Wouldn not surprise me one bit if this is being done as a request by the chinese as they have been apparnetly talking with SOLG since Porvenir days and the 32p placing.

Time is ticking and the sweet spot for metal prices likely in 2 years, so even a smallscale mine is going to take 2 years before it's producing based on capex budget of $1bln. As the clock ticks... the sweet spot moves and interested parties will want to be exporting gold/copper in 2026 rather than 2027 or 2028. By 2028... the super majors might have a few mines up and running. But in 2026, supply is going to be as tight as needalifes ahole after massiveray has been up there.

Under 4 weeks now until PFS based on Scott's guidance of 'early Q1'.

Could be here next week. I suspect they'll want it out before the MD&A as the latter (for previous Q) might give them the game away a bit.

Agree... but ultimately it's all about IRR. That simply has to be north of 22%... and probably north of 25% if based on smaller mine, shorter development period/cash back etc.

The IRR is what matters to key funders and key investors. Some will not touch miners with IRR's sub 20%. The problem for SOLG has always been inflation near term. Higher rates or cost of finance drops that IRR. So all efforts to reduce capex are largely offset by rising finance costs. That said... most know that rates will drop and metal prices will rise. So there's a sweet spot in the middle for investors. Finally the second major importance of dropping the capex and phasing the development is that you no longer need to have Super majors or Chinese involved etc. You can get someone like Franco to stump up $500m and finance the other $500m through CB's or partner deals. $1bln finance package not hard based on the asset potential. You will see likes of Endeavour Mining and others with MK caps of $1bln ish suddenly able to look at being partners or buying in. Ultimately, if a deal witha consortium materialised for phase 1 and capex of $1bln, then the super majors or chinese have to act. They simply cannot allow that deal to happen or they lose the asset for good.

So post PFS and capex of $1bln, SOLG should enter into discussions with multiple parties that are no longer deep pocketed mining firms... but more dynamic players, nimble with less pressure from shareholders etc and corporate sluggishness that comes with BHP et al. You could see FMG get involved but through Wyloo. A deal based on $1bln capex suddenly becomes a real possibility... at the moment a deal based on $3bln+ capex has about a handful of player capable of biting and all are just sitting on their hands right now. So we are led to believe!

Historically, SOLG has always risen at least 100% in shareprice leading up to a PFS news release. We had 18p move to 41p on last PFS. So 8p to 16p should be a doddle. After that, the market can be less sure of a deal NOT happening and hence needs to start pricing in some of that resource value. Would not surprise me to see Scott get a 14p or 15p 157m share placement away if or when sp doubles That would raise another $25m and give SOLG over 12 months finance head room which includes the $5m commitment per year for licence 60 odd licence blocks. All guesses... so lets see what happens.

Thanks for that tiger. Does that mean that you are selling at 14p or 16p?

Bozi, you know I've never moved my view on the asset. That's the star. It's mind droppingly good. Where I called it wrong (and happy to admit that) is on management. When the merger kicked off and the sp was around 23p, I wrongly believed that this management team would get it sold in 12 months. I wrongly believed that the strategic review they launched would be revealed within 6 to 12 months. I wrongly believed that the actions to reduce cash burn would do just that... reduce the cash burn but was wrong they still got through £80m. I wrongly believed that the business would split into two giving shareholders some exploration to enjoy.

Or perhaps these misunderstandings were not mine? Perhaps I was right to believe those things but management failed to deliver.

So in summary, I was wrong for believing in this management team. And that's the reality. Yet for some reason... you think everyone is happy clappy about Scott and this team.

Mmm.

Soon be management remuneration meeting time and bonus awards to be dished out. Do you think Scott and team are in their rights for awarding themselves more shares and bonuses?

Bozi, I don't think there are many shareholders out there that would say they have happy with SOLG's current position and share price. You were disgrunted and negative at 22p levels and now supportive and happy at 8p levels and you didn't sell a share inbetween. I'd say the 'simple' view is that when a gun is held to your head and they say smile... you smile. Others don't rollover so easily.

"The consensus is that everyone is happy with Scott." Bozi, if I offered you two shiiit sandwiches and you simply had to eat one, would the concensus be that you are happy with the one you ate?

You've got a very simple view of things.

Mm's seem to be looking for stock.

Might suggest seller all done now after the near 5m to 6m average traded days for last 2 months+. Wonder if it was Norges? Think there is a way of checking on norges holdings even if they are sub 3%.

Still a puzzle why the price ran from 8p to 11.5p over xmas period but perhaps shows what happens when 'controlling hands' are not involved.

Bottom line is... share price is irrelevant (unless you are like Wildtiger and trading it for 20% etc) but if holding for the eventual monetisation event... well.. that comes based on asset value/industry bench marks. Until an offer drops the share price can trade in lala land for as long as it cares to in these poor valuation based markets.

Just 31 days now left for Scott to reveal his master stroke PFS he's so excited about.

Anything beyond that and he's missed his self appointed deadline of early Q1.

Well done Tiger.

What's your target for selling them?

The metal mix is better at Alpala and it's Tier1 (so derisked albeit block cave etc) so don't think you can apply a direct read across. That said, Solaris assets are closer to infrastructure / existing mines and that carries some weight.

All in all, I think most expect the first offer to land in the early 30's. I can't see BHP letting it go for that nor any other interested parties. Whilst I would like to gain 100p for the lock stock and barrel, I think 70p is likely to be the highest achieveable now that we have 3bln shares in issue.

I'd take 70p a share but would be reluctant at anything less than 55p.

I think they've located the SOLG boardroom

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67940671

Just a tickle over 4 weeks now for Scott's much heralded cut down PFS. When's the next M&A out? The last one suggested the firm that signs off the PFS had not been commissioned as yet. That was a while ago now. So they must be chewing over all the data right now or be almost done. Water test works must have been completed back in October at very least. So basically everything would have been in hand long before gangs got into fisty cuffs. So no excuse there for you Scott.

The noose is tightening now to almost max level. SOLG have cash pile evapourating (gone by June)...still serious red tape issues with Ecuador gov to overcome. PFS due. And shareprice rock bottom.

Whoever it is that has a choke on SOLG's share price is not going to let up until SOLG delivers something that forces them too. Come on Scott and Bob et al... pull your finger out... you're making past management teams look superior.

Gangland issues are long term... but they tend to be resolved amongst themselves. Something different happened this time around...Fito escaped. That's the catalyst. Someone somewhere... made it possible for him to get out of maximum jail. So that's why a posited the Correa angle.

The shooting of a leading politician was far more shocking than the TV studio break in. But again... this was a departure from the norm. So issues with the gang world have clearly been brewing since July last year or earlier. It might be due to the increased crack down on crime due to the POLLS and I can assure you... heading into next Feb's elections will require both candidates to prove or put forward significant plans to tackle crime and clean ecuador up as that's high on the list of people when voting.

So looks to me like the crime world is taking a little squeeze and perhaps it's the colombians that don't like what's going on as they bare seasonal cartel players and know the robes better then Ecuador's posse's.

All in all, it goes without saying that SOLG's staff will be told to stay safe but as we know, there is sweet FA going on ops wise so nothing is going to effect SOLG right now. There are no drills going on. Nothing. It's all data room crushing stuff and that's likely done in Canada or Oz lol!

Great picture of the chinese discussing mining face to face... I really do hope they get Alpala and make billions out if it. That will teach BHP et al a lesson. And if the Saudi's step into mineralmining through investments and M&A... heaven help BHP and co... they'll be toast. Happens all the time to the big guys when they get a bit lazy and sloppy.

Certainly no need for an RNS at all on current ecuador in country affairs

Eloro,

You should read some of Noboa's responses. It's likely to be the other way around... with Noboa going hard core and basically wiping the cartels out... bit like Israel on Gaza... all rules broken and US turns blind eye ... mmm.

It is spot on but I hate to break it to the guy... but the FED is the 'house'. They own the casino. The run everything to support the dollar. When things don't add up...like during Covid... Gold should have gone to $10k+ levels as the safe haven. But the Fed didn't want that, so instead allowed crypto's to run riot. The list goes on. The FED never loses. The world is no longer spinning based on old economics... it's spinning on tik tock, X and so on. Just watch Bitcoin and other crypto's surge away and Gold will just flip flop around and look unwanted. That's what the FED wants. That's what the FED will get.

Looks like he's gone commando and going after them Arnie style. Good to see. Lets hope he doesn't get 'popped'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67930452

Paddy... if you google news on Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil...the list goes on... you'll find loads of unsavory stuff. Doesn't seem to bother the Super majors mining over there lol!

South America is a hot bed and it's ironic that the US knows all about the drugs cartels and routes to US yet seems to do little about it. Makes you wonder whether they see cocaine as an important import lol!

Anyway... Ecuador certainly much better and safer than majority of them which is why I think the BBC seems to pick up on Ecuador stories rather than bother with Brazil or Chile or Peru et al. Old news I guess.

The colombians are key. Far more involved than many think in Ecuador. Been going on for decades.

But it serves as a reminder why SOLG's assets will eventually go for a price that reflects South American past deals rather than any deals involving safer regions. Regional risk was priced in long ago. Chinese must be mopping up this loose stock day in and day out and laughing their heads off. At this rate, they will probably get around 15% stake at net ave of 10p a share. You won't see a TR1 though lol!