Member Info for ForFXSake

I wonder if the upper range is what they expect should the Oxilio deal get signed off

Not sure if we've got our wires crossed here Soup but I feel pretty sure that Oxilio wouldn't be paying anywhere near £2m to us if they were getting just £3.7m in revenue. Unless I've got things severely wrong, royalties are usually a percentage. This is the key value that has not been disclosed (and which is possibly still being negotiated).

Lets say our royalties were 2% capped at 2m. Then Oxilio would pay the maximum amount to us only when they are hitting sales of 100m or above . If it was 20% then we would receive our capped maximum on sales of 10m or above.

You can see the difference, a higher percentage means a much greater chance of getting that maximum value sooner. We'll have to wait and see what happens there but 2% would not be great.

"If NFX were fine accepting a low ball offer then it would have happened by now. It feels more like there has been an agreement in principle and Ox are now sorting their funding to meet it."

I agree, although I think the negotiations will only be on the upfront and/or milestone payments as the 2m cap on royalties appears to be unchanged.

I note from the Allenby report that "PlusVitech, a Spanish biotech company, is also attempting to repurpose aprepitant in non-small cell lung cancer".

Is that good or bad news? How far advanced or behind are they? If they are more advanced then could this affect Oxilio's appetite for taking on too much risk (and paying too much) or, on the other hand, might PlusVitech be interested in what we have if the Oxilio deal falls through?

"Every interview is the same, background in what NFX do then say everything is ongoing."

Completely agree with that sentiment. We desperately need some value-adding progress. Optimistic outlooks, rainbows and unicorns just don't cut it anymore.

"Current fair value 1.7p to 3.4p prior to any other news."

So 1.7p then :0)

Glad you feel that way Cud.

It's been a long haul for most of us so far. It might still have a long way to go.

They do seem to have the 'nances' required to work for the next 12 months (from report sign-off). So hopefully no more give-away placings to chancers in that time.

NXP002:

Sounds to me like the Asian parties were approached again (as promised) and either don't want to pay what was being asked or are no longer interested. There is no suggestion here that those discussions are still ongoing at this time.

That said, I think the new BoD expected that to be the case back in March. The push for more data is obviously aimed at addressing the shortfalls and mistakes of the previous board who appear to have been trying to secure a deal for something that couldn't really be valued and was on a wing and a prayer. It probably relied in part on good will which was likely scuppered by the Times leak.

The new board obviously want to stamp a tangible value on NXP002 for any future discussions that may occur with other partners on the global stage. If this Asian party was still interested then they could always come back later or try to buy us out but I think that would have happened by now. They did make it clear in the report that the old board had been entirely replaced and things are more stable now. They also made it clear they still had access to Joanne. Maybe that was aimed at whoever was interested before. What I read from this though is that any hope for NXP002 currently rests on finding new partners going forward.

NXP001:
As far as CINV is concerned it sounds like further development work is required on the formulation to be able to partner it. I'm guessing this is why nothing has been progressed. As for Oxilio, at least they are still talking. There does not appear to be any decent revenue so far (£195k for the year from Ebers, Vistagen and Oxilio?). I just hope we can secure a deal that does not sell us short if the product is a success and that also averts the need for more cash in the short to mid term.

Because it's freedom day!

The board can slip down to the pub to sink a few pints in celebration of all the shareholder value they're delivering

We can't do anything now but wait and pray that they have a realistic plan to commercialise these products.

Yes, they did always say that they ultimately planned to sell it on but (if I remember rightly) we were told that we had ongoing business relationships with both Ebers and NSB and that discussions were at an advanced stage with a Japanese partner for NXP002.

It seemed more like we were buying into a business than a privately funded science project with poorly defined expectations.

Did DG not mention in one of his Proactive or Vox videos that he had put a 2-3 year timescale on it, supposedly achievable on account of the fact that co-crystals didn't break the repurposed product in a way that would require full and lengthy trials. Now we appear to be talking about 2029 before anything gets to market!

You're quite right Soup. That is what was stated back around the time of the placing.

At that time we were also expecting some form of income from an Oxilio deal, support from Innovate and potential new investment via Allenby.

We haven't heard anything about Innovate (although I think we're agreed that nothing came of that). Similarly, there has been no material update on Oxilio. As for Allenby, I haven't seen any new notifiable interests in the company, just the discounted placing giveaway. Judging by volume of turnover, it would appear that most of those shares were quickly sold off. There seems to have been little appetite for those 'investors' to give things a chance.

I suppose what I'm really wondering is are the new board dynamic enough to react to changing circumstances which may have resulted in us having less cash available than previously expected. Can they still afford to sit around and just wait for 3rd party researchers to deliver NXP002 results without even trying to engage with potential partners in the meantime?

Is this a business or a science project?

I guess we'll find out in a week or so.

OBW,

I'm not asking for names of partners, just confirmation of whether or not they have actually been in touch with anyone who is interested.

"You say 'If they don't see potential in NXP002 then why are we prioritising it over other products?' - seems an odd comment as they have prioritised NXP002 - so presumably they do see potential in it - when have they said that they do not see potential in it?"

I was not talking about Nuformix' belief in it's potential. I was asking the question: if Kissei (or someone else) had once expressed an interest in NXP002 and no longer did (which appears to be case after 18 months) then why? Is it because of a lack of trust over the Times leak or is it because (after reviewing data presented to them) they cannot see any potential? If the latter is the case then are we flogging a dead horse and would it not be wiser to pursue opportunities for NXP001 or NXP004 instead?

If there really was great potential in NXP002 then surely that partner would still be interested given that the old board is now completely gone.

Have you clicked on the CN (Chinese) link? It says it was published in Jan 2021. It also relates to Tranilast Chrystalline Salts but has the company/assignee down as "Novomix Technology Co Ltd" instead of Nuformix

I'm guessing that's invalid then.

"The company has had a torrid time over the last couple of years, including promises of a big money deal with a Chinese company leaked in the Times which never materialised, "

Was it really a Chinese company that the Times leak referred to?

That one is obviously aimed at my fellow England supporters.

For the rest of you, well I suppose things are starting to look up for a change :0)

A little off topic, I know but as we are no strangers to disappointment, I just thought I'd congratulate our lads on getting us to the very last penalty of the final. I never expected us to get that far.

It's been a welcome distraction

Indeed and who would the shorters borrow the shares from? Those that aren't in the sticky hands of the disgruntled few on here are busily being churned for a loss by the P&D crews.

Can't see anyone being stupid enough to short a tuppence share waiting for news on a deal.