Member Info for fogthemogg

With the Kenya dream gone for loose change, where does the multibagger narrative come from now though?

So we sold one of our legs for kidney dialysis treatment? At least we're still alive I suppose.

Thought it was worth $1bn Anton? 😂

Still only 1.5m volume after that.

Auson, you're welcome to think there's no oil oversupply. But the collapse from $100+ oil in 2022 to $65 now is probably evidence enough on its own. OPEC's futile attempts at cuts between autumn 2022 and 2024 add further weight; this culminated in Saudi eventually going it alone with further cuts which smacked of desperation. Now they've pivoted because it didn't work, perhaps they're trying to flush out higher cost producers again with the recent production increase...

I'm still picking up some oilers for the divis and a partial recovery, but not on an assumption of a supply shortage or a return to anything like $100 oil. I think that ship sailed years ago.

She's got the look 👀

"Thats where I reckon oil will trade based on the current Macro / recession ...Unless we get some big geo spat, I cannot see the upside for oil.

Be interesting what this range means for HBR cash flow model, as we will be trading at worst case scenario (based on the current plan) taking oil and gas into consideration. Any thoughts / number crunchers out there"

Their $1bn FCF forecast for 2025 (which is half that of 2022) was based on a very optimistic $80 Brent assumption, so now we're looking at $800m region.

Agreed re oil, the supply shortage narrative peddled everywhere was nonsense to start with, even before Trump threw a hand grenade at the global economy. Even if Trump reversed all the tariffs and said "I'm sorry guys", some of the damage is already done.

"What is holding silver back?"

Around 60% of silver demand is industrial-driven so Trump tariff concern, China's economic slowdown, global recession fears etc. is partially offsetting the uptick in investment demand.

Nitro, did you miss the tariff news?

"fogthemogg, you don't know the answer so stop accusing other people who post chat as part of this debate of muddying waters."

I do know the answer and I've told people on multiple occasions, on different boards no less, by just using one sentence to make it clear.

Instead, we get these jumbled essays from ill-informed people, waffling about record dates, settlement days and what the weather is like. Then they're trying to guess how many days before the record date one should be holding, or even worse they're telling everyone they need to be holding ON THE record date to be eligible. You've missed the divi then.

Harbour Energy went ex yesterday for example, yet there were people getting confused and asking if they're still going to get the divi if they're holding on the record date, which is today. It's mental!

Think you might have underestimated the significance of last Wednesday...Even if Trump reversed all the tariffs today and said sorry, some of the damage is already done with economic repercussions extending for years.

@Strike

Please tell me you're just trolling for a laugh to muddy the waters further 😭

@Noel

If you intend to hold for the divi and mistakenly believe that the record date is when it goes ex, then I suppose it doesn't really matter in the end...The outcome is the same anyway.

You'll notice the drop on ex-divi day BEFORE the record date, realise why and then have the opportunity to buy some more.

Every buy is a sell and every sell is a buy...

"Yes, and significant volumes. Someone is buying a lot at 14.00, relentlessly since this morning..."

The question is, was that just short covering at 13-14p all day or new investors who believe in the future of the company...Could be both of course.

Welcome back Mark. Have you got that dossier you promised me last year on that phantom oil shortage you used to waffle about and alleged paper market manipulation?

The ex-divi date is all that matters to an investor; to be eligible for the divi you must be holding at close the day before it goes ex.

On every board there's people waffling about record dates which just confuses already confused people.

"Out come the conspiracy theorists about insider trading in the Trump Whitehouse without a shred of evidence :)"

Some chunky call options with same day expiry were placed yesterday NYC time, but insider trading is extremely difficult to prove...

Anton still trying to convince himself that he was right all along when it's at 14p 😂

Alas I didn't short TLW recently, but when someone is up 100s of % long or short, a 15-20% move against them is a drop in the ocean. But then you've never experienced huge gains have you Anton so you wouldn't know 😉

Surprised how quiet it is on here today, but I suppose even a 15-20% relief bounce to 14p doesn't count for much when this was 40p just over a year ago.

It's not often that those who held for the divi see a rip on ex-divi day, so understandably there's some furious selling. Always been a trading stock.

"So it should trade about 10p lower?"

If this had been a normal trading day then yes, it would have fallen by divi and then some.