Member Info for fogthemogg

FRES doesn't always move in lockstep with PMs. If it did, then it wouldn't have still been in the 600 doldrums at the beginning of the year, nor fallen to 438p last year. It got a little ahead of itself and is now consolidating.

"I think you'll be very surprised where the SP is in a month or two's time ..."

Bonker, this is the third year in a row you've been talking HBR and oil prices up. Have you ever performed any research beyond ZeroHedge and oilprice.com? Thought not...

Anton was talking up an inevitable dividend at 40p 😆

Ramping or deramping aside, the realistic best case here is a buy-out at 15-20p. Recent speculators like me make 50-100%, whilst Anton finally closes a very wasteful chapter of his life at 50-75% loss.

US data is now clearly indicating that the labour market is cracking. Although any member of the public could have told Powell that years go...

"Oil is suppressed right now, but eventually it will swing back"

How many more years is that fallacy going to be flogged for?

I wonder if a group of speculators are trying to corner the silver market (as it's still pretty small), just like the Hunt brothers tried to do in 1980.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

We'll see my friend. I didn't think last week's FOMC was very dovish, but if employment reports (next one in 77 mins) continue to deteriorate, than perhaps the Fed will fold like a cheap suit, press the panic button and start frontloading more rate cuts.

JMT, I think the mania began a few months ago...We've seen compulsory fund purchases at higher and higher prices, whilst the speculators who were gobbling at 440p-700p, have been offloading at the close to the latecomers.

The big question is, with only one rate cut expected for 2026, has this recent PM move got ahead of itself? It will be a really interesting Q4.

If OPEC hike production again on Sunday then how will Q4 be "lit" for oil?

Summer is typically seasonal strength, but we're now heading into seasonal weakness with Brent clinging to $66.

If OPEC hike production again on Sunday then sliding back to 400p or below is inevitable I'm afraid.

"This is the first spike above £20 and past FRES SP history and some sixth sense is nagging me take some profits now. "

FRES breached 20 quid before in 2011 and 2016, albeit briefly...

"With these premises, TLW in my opinion a multi-bagger opportunity."

Not again 😱😂

It was a multibagger opportunity at 60p too apparently.

Yes, I've never understood the analogy that LGEN is like money in the bank...

Credit events and bond market turmoil can knock us down 15-20% pretty sharpish.

24 karat 🪙💩

Poor old LGEN the tortoise getting hammered as 30-year gilt yields hit the highest level since 1998.

"The daily buy volumes at the market lows in FRES was well over 23m."

The notional value traded in GBP was, not the volume...I remember it well, daily trading volume spiked to 4-5m when it went sub-500p and it even broke the Covid low of 456p, bottoming at 438p.

Rahul led operational transformation from 80 kboepd to 40 kboepd in just a few years, brilliant job...

Well, gold and silver certainly liked the Xi and Modi meeting at the weekend.

"This is a company that just a few weeks ago confirmed it still expected to end 2025 with leverage at 1.3x. That’s not horrible."

Trailing cash flow leverage isn't terrible, no. But those metrics are subject to swings and forward-looking it's likely going to deteriorate, bar an oil supply shock.

Balance sheet leverage has looked dismal for years...Along with cratering production, it's one of the main reasons why 3 suitors have walked away in the last few years.

"Gold has zero counterparty risk"

If it's at home yea, not if it's in a company's vault...